Help/Advice on my Hawks Future to Win East

L

lvmike32

Pretty much a regular
Hey Guys,

I have a future on Atlanta to win the East at $300 to win $15,400 - put it in about 3 weeks into start of season. Down $1700 on my other future bet losses. I think Cleveland is going to win the series pretty easy. My thinking was to hedge bet $11,500 on Cleveland to win series at -225 ($5100). So I'd either win the $5100 on Cleveland win or $4000 on Atlanta win, less my losses. Looking to net $2K-$3K. I did real well with my football futures last season but most of my NBA were awful. Got real lucky with this one on Atlanta.

But just wondering if there might be a better way to maximize the hedge game by game?? Again, I absolutely believe Cleveland will win series and just looking for best hedge strategy.

thanks in advance.
 
At a quick glance, I think you answered your own question.

Nice take early in year. Atlanta is easily the worst 60+win team of all-time...No way the NBA doesn't let Cavs get to ship....
 
BAR, thanks. That's what I'm thinking but just want to see if I might not be thinking of something. Yeah, had to sweat both the Brooklyn and definitely the Wash series. unless Kyrie is really hurt I think Cleve is going to win easily. When I made the bet Atlanta was getting hot and Chicago and Cleveland weren't looking great. But getting Mosgov, Smith and Shumpert turned Cleveland around. thanks
 
Depends how important the money is to you.

Hedging is dumb IMO. And this is why I hate playing futures. But if you want to guarantee max profit you'll have to get a lot of money together (if you don't have it) and spread it around on different books I believe. Where did you place the wager?

Is it possible for you to bet that much on your book?
 
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Nbafan, don't disagree with you on hedging and futures for the most part. Mainly just fun for me and I did real well with CF and NFL (including OSU to win NC) and thought I'd try some NBA and that was a mistake. I do for fun but obviously want to be as sharp as I can and win. Got very lucky here with Hawks (Chicago/Cleveland playing in 2nd round among other things) and just want to walk away with a profit. The cash is no issue - I also have a Credit account too. My CR account guy is deciding whether he wants to take the full hedge (he has the Atlanta risk). Think he'd be a fool to do so. More than likely I'll have to spread it around town at the casinos.
 
I understand what you're saying but you're thinking way too much. You weren't lucky with Atlanta. They had a historic season and deserve to be where they are. You're making it seem like the team has no chance to win and that's preposterous. The Bulls had so much drama and who knows what's going on behind closed doors. They went on the longest scoring droughts I've seen in a very long time. The cavs picked out their first round opponent by tanking the last two games of the regular season. Their run has been a cakewalk IMO and they look better than they actually are. The nets were a joke matchup as well but I think the wiz were playing the best ball in the league
 
Shit, I'd pretty much let it ride. You got home court. Doesn't come in, wasn't meant to be.
 
If you want, you can try your luck and wait for Game 1, hoping that Hawks will win it.
You can throw a couple of bucks on Cleveland ML (300$ to get back your investment). Risky, no question, but can have very high reward - especially since you can bet a bit more money on Cleveland ML live, hoping that Hawks at least get to a good start.

I usually in such spots and I had the luck to be several times in good hedging positions (though not as good as this one), usually hedge partially and roll the dice on the rest, hoping for the best.
Cleveland should win the series, but Game 1? I feel it's the right line there - truly 50 - 50 game.
 
If you're gonna hedge, do it now.... I don't think the line wil change much after game 1 if Atlanta wins. All this thinking is bad for your mental health when it comes to betting on sports.
 
The whole premise of hedging is to guarantee profit. If you can get -200 on the cavs you bet 10k on Cleveland to guarantee to come out ahead 5k either way. It's basically you have $5000 riding on the Hawks at +300. Personally I would hedge off half but everyone is different. I just would feel really crappy if the Hawks beat Lebron and I lost out on 10,000
 
thanks guys. Appreciate it. Kyrie injury making me hold off for now. but I'll probably take the hedge. thanks again.
 
LOL at anyone saying hedging is dumb. I'm guessing you just wipe your ass with $4K?

I'd hedge, but maybe put yourself in a situation where you win more to the Hawks winning it. Nothing would irk me more than rooting for this Hawks team all year, then over-hedging, and being forced to basically root against them in the conference final. I'd probably bet to win $3,300 on the Cavs, so I win $3K if the Cavs advance and nearly $8K if the Hawks advance. You could also consider hedging a smaller amount pre-series with the idea of adding to your hedge at a better price if the Hawks get up in the series at some point.
 
nbafan88 said:
I understand what you're saying but you're thinking way too much. You weren't lucky with Atlanta. They had a historic season and deserve to be where they are. You're making it seem like the team has no chance to win and that's preposterous. The Bulls had so much drama and who knows what's going on behind closed doors. They went on the longest scoring droughts I've seen in a very long time. The cavs picked out their first round opponent by tanking the last two games of the regular season. Their run has been a cakewalk IMO and they look better than they actually are. The nets were a joke matchup as well but I think the wiz were playing the best ball in the league
Click to expand...


Um, for them or in general??
 
lindetrain said:
LOL at anyone saying hedging is dumb. I'm guessing you just wipe your ass with $4K?

I'd hedge, but maybe put yourself in a situation where you win more to the Hawks winning it. Nothing would irk me more than rooting for this Hawks team all year, then over-hedging, and being forced to basically root against them in the conference final. I'd probably bet to win $3,300 on the Cavs, so I win $3K if the Cavs advance and nearly $8K if the Hawks advance. You could also consider hedging a smaller amount pre-series with the idea of adding to your hedge at a better price if the Hawks get up in the series at some point.
Click to expand...



Perfect post.
 
Perfect position to do what you are doing, there is great advise here and I'm sure you can seclude the bad stuff...you have plenty of outs at your disposal. There is no way I wouldn't hedge to a degree even before the first game. If ATL wins that, use it to your advantage and hedge more. Seems you have the best interest of most here.
 
B.A.R. said:
At a quick glance, I think you answered your own question.

Nice take early in year. Atlanta is easily the worst 60+win team of all-time...No way the NBA doesn't let Cavs get to ship....
Click to expand...

2004 Pacers were worse imo...but agree that the Hawks are a weak top seed and he should def hedge.
 
Appreciate all the feedback guys. I put the hedge bets in and will net $3K after my $1700 in losses on other futures/game bets if Cleve wins, about 2K if Atlanta wins. I just strongly believe Cleveland will win the series and, if Korver doesn't pull his head out, rather easily. thanks again.
 
B.A.R. said:
Um, for them or in general??
Click to expand...

Both. What the organization did was historic.

anytime you go from 8th to 1st as well as an entire calendar month without losing, it's historic and not a fluke... they won 20 more games than what they were projected to win.... thats historic

i don't know why you're discounting their accomplishments... because they're in the east? It's not the hawks fault that a bunch of teams have chose to go into rebuilding mode for years.... and they went 22-8 vs the west... yes.. they aren't flashy, nor do they have big time stars.... and in this sense they are the spurs of the east.... and they will only continue to get better

the same people that hate on the spurs will hate on the hawks... at least thats what i have seen this year so far... these are the same people that think the warriors play good basketball... blasphemy :enraged:


and if it wasn't for the NYPD racial profiling, the hawks would've beat the wiz in 5 max and wouldve swept the nets
 
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ok maybe not swept but it would've been an easier series... there would have been less help needed on the perimeter on defense


i think sefolosha is one of the best defenders in the league
 
nbafan88 said:
these are the same people that think the warriors play good basketball... blasphemy :enraged:
Click to expand...

Wait...the Warriors don't play good basketball? What are you using to make this claim? They led the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency...and were top 3 in both last year as well.
 
Lareux said:
Wait...the Warriors don't play good basketball? What are you using to make this claim? They led the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency...and were top 3 in both last year as well.
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pizza boy will never learn
 
Offensive and defensive efficiency aren't imperative for a quality product. Get your heads out of the sand.
 
I was thisclose to booking a ticket to Oakland last night just to see this team play
 
kjohnson109 said:
I was thisclose to booking a ticket to Oakland last night just to see this team play
Click to expand...

Save your money for next year...you can book a ticket to watch the Nets play good basketball...the Dubs play horrible basketball and completely luck boxed their way to the best record, best offense, and best defense in the league.
 
kjohnson109 said:
I can see them here any time, want to experience the atmosphere
Click to expand...

Meh. Barclay's Center is where it's at for atmosphere. Plus, you get to see good basketball, not that dog and pony show the Dubs run out there.
 
No worries nbafan. I don't care if you reference or say covers, but a direct link..please, no.

Dudley Chill with the name calling in this thread please. Thanks.

Carry on. People can learn from this thread.
 
nbafan88 said:
1. Depends how important the money is to you.

2. Hedging is dumb IMO. And this is why I hate playing futures. But if you want to guarantee max profit you'll have to get a lot of money together (if you don't have it) and spread it around on different books I believe. Where did you place the wager?

Is it possible for you to bet that much on your book?
Click to expand...

1. - depends on how important winning is too him.....

2. - very silly statement....its like capping an individual game - if you see the advantage you take it...
- you don't like it because you tie up your cash for a season...... but to see it is dumb -- not good..
 
lvmike32 said:
Hey Guys,

I have a future on Atlanta to win the East at $300 to win $15,400 - put it in about 3 weeks into start of season. Down $1700 on my other future bet losses. I think Cleveland is going to win the series pretty easy. My thinking was to hedge bet $11,500 on Cleveland to win series at -225 ($5100). So I'd either win the $5100 on Cleveland win or $4000 on Atlanta win, less my losses. Looking to net $2K-$3K. I did real well with my football futures last season but most of my NBA were awful. Got real lucky with this one on Atlanta.

But just wondering if there might be a better way to maximize the hedge game by game?? Again, I absolutely believe Cleveland will win series and just looking for best hedge strategy.

thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

Don't know how you let it play out but well done!!!! :cheers3:
 
lindetrain said:
LOL at anyone saying hedging is dumb. I'm guessing you just wipe your ass with $4K?

I'd hedge, but maybe put yourself in a situation where you win more to the Hawks winning it. Nothing would irk me more than rooting for this Hawks team all year, then over-hedging, and being forced to basically root against them in the conference final. I'd probably bet to win $3,300 on the Cavs, so I win $3K if the Cavs advance and nearly $8K if the Hawks advance. You could also consider hedging a smaller amount pre-series with the idea of adding to your hedge at a better price if the Hawks get up in the series at some point.
Click to expand...

Nice post and explanation!
 
nbafan88 said:
The whole premise of hedging is to guarantee profit. If you can get -200 on the cavs you bet 10k on Cleveland to guarantee to come out ahead 5k either way. It's basically you have $5000 riding on the Hawks at +300. Personally I would hedge off half but everyone is different. I just would feel really crappy if the Hawks beat Lebron and I lost out on 10,000
Click to expand...

thought this was dumb?
 
I'll stand up for NBA. I never hedge. Would he have bet the Hawks' future at half the price back in November? What would have been the point? How about I put a little something on all 30 teams? You guys are pussies.
 
This is the same resistance I run into when I argue for winner-take-all in all fantasy leagues, contests, whatever.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I'll stand up for NBA. I never hedge. Would he have bet the Hawks' future at half the price back in November? What would have been the point? How about I put a little something on all 30 teams? You guys are pussies.
Click to expand...

Well, a bunch of guys place futures like this (with huge payoffs), simply so THEY CAN hedge if/when the time comes. People who hedge may be pussies, but that's probably better than being an idiot.
 
Lareux said:
Well, a bunch of guys place futures like this (with huge payoffs), simply so THEY CAN hedge if/when the time comes. People who hedge may be pussies, but that's probably better than being an idiot.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know. But why bet the Hawks future in the first place? What, did they fall short of expectations? People arguing for the hedge are acting like it's a no brainer, like it doesn't cost several thousand dollars.
 
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