Help/Advice on my Hawks Future to Win East

tipyerbartender said:
Yeah, I know. But why bet the Hawks future in the first place? What, did they fall short of expectations? People arguing for the hedge are acting like it's a no brainer, like it doesn't cost several thousand dollars.
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It doesn't cost you anything Tip, it's money you never had. You either win less (if the Hawks were to win), or you win money when you wouldn't have (if the Hawks lose).

And I literally just told you why some people bet the futures in the first place...looking for a spot to hedge if possible and guarantee themselves money. You having a Twinkie moment?
 
If I have the book by the scrotum, I'm not going to say, "Hey, let's pretend I only have you by one ball. Gimme the other side until we're both comfortable."
 
If you're intentionally limiting your potential, it comes with a cost.
 
Lareux, you do know it's two different bets? A first one, and a later one against yourself.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Lareux, you do know it's two different bets? A first one, and a later one against yourself.
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Yes, of course. You still don't get the concept that people may make futures bets on longshots simply for the opportunity to hedge at a later date and guarantee profit? Like I said, better to be a pussy than an idiot.
 
tipyerbartender said:
If you're intentionally limiting your potential, it comes with a cost.
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But the key word is "potential." It's not a guarantee that the future bet will win, so you really aren't costing yourself anything...unless, of course the future does win...but the trade off is a guaranteed profit. In the thousands of dollars (as you pointed out).
 
tipyerbartender said:
If I have the book by the scrotum, I'm not going to say, "Hey, let's pretend I only have you by one ball. Gimme the other side until we're both comfortable."
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Well, lots of smart people disagree with you wholeheartedly.

We aren't talking about some 5 team parlay bet...in that case, hedging may not be the best course of action, especially repeatedly hedging. When you're talking about a season long future bet, that may have been placed simply so you could hedge if given the chance, it's completely different. I'm sorry you don't understand that.
 
If someone makes a science out of it, my hat's off. Guy bet the Hawks, he's at the precipice of collection, now he wants to give himself half the number, a number he probably wouldn't have bet in November because it didn't look good.
 
tipyerbartender said:
If someone makes a science out of it, my hat's off. Guy bet the Hawks, he's at the precipice of collection, now he wants to give himself half the number, a number he probably wouldn't have bet in November because it didn't look good.
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Half the number GUARANTEED. Look it up if you don't know what that means. JFC Tip....stop trolling. And if you're not trolling, I truly feel sorry for you.
 
Lareux, I'm not trolling, it's merely a difference in approach. If he bets the Cavs, and the Hawks win the series, he wins less money. In effect, he loses and the book wins, it's a separate bet. Some money > no money, yes, agree. Also , more money > less money, do you agree?
 
tipyerbartender said:
Lareux, I'm not trolling, it's merely a difference in approach. If he bets the Cavs, and the Hawks win the series, he wins less money. In effect, he loses and the book wins, it's a separate bet. Some money > no money, yes, agree. Also , more money > less money, do you agree?
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But with your more money>less money there is a risk. The other way, the guaranteed money, there is no risk. Do you agree?
 
tipyerbartender said:
Hawks can win this too, there is that.
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They can, sure. Would you bet Atlanta in the series right now? If your answer is no (of course your answer is no), then hedging is obviously the right call, and you're literally arguing against yourself as well as everyone else.
 
This is stupid. Yes, I agree if he reduces his risk, he cant win or lose as much money. Is he gambling on the Hawks or opening up a money market account?
 
I don't think the Hawks will win the series, but I'm not a professional gambler, and did you see my work in the baseball contest?
 
tipyerbartender said:
This is stupid. Yes, I agree if he reduces his risk, he cant win or lose as much money. Is he gambling on the Hawks or opening up a money market account?
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I guess he's opening a money market account, as if that's a bad thing. It's taking the gamble out of "gambling." How in the fuck is that possibly a bad thing?
 
tipyerbartender said:
This is stupid. Yes, I agree if he reduces his risk, he cant win or lose as much money. Is he gambling on the Hawks or opening up a money market account?
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And, AGAIN, he may not have been gambling on the Hawks all along...as I stated, some guys bet long shots before the season simply so they can hedge. His gambling on the Hawks is over now that he can hedge and guarantee himself money.
 
Yes, full circle, call it what it is. A bet against his own bet to eliminate potential loss and sabotage profit. To the book's delight.
 
tipyerbartender said:
This is stupid. Yes, I agree if he reduces his risk, he cant win or lose as much money. Is he gambling on the Hawks or opening up a money market account?
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Tip
you know i love futures.. some are LONG shots and some are not as long.....
over the course of a full season, so many things can happen, injury, trades, etc......... It is all about value - he saw value in the line that was offered at the time. Now the value isnt there anymore so he puts himself into position not to lose at all.....(the key point)

The only idea i can gather from your posts is you gamble on a future, ride it out... its gambling..... i am sure many do that... .. I don't...
 
If I'm a large book, I'm happy if he does this, like someone bunting on me in the 3rd inning. Is it good to make your competitor happy?
 
Tip you really need to google stock options trading, understand the gist of it and realize many people do that for a living, to put food on the table. It's the same thing as what's going on here with the futures bet, if it's more valuable today than it was when it was placed, there's no issue in trying to cash in on the increased value. At some point that options ticket could be worthless.
 
The bunter is handing me a guaranteed out. The hedger is handing me guaranteed money.

It's a 2-way street. Hedging also guarantees the book money.
 
But not in this case, KJ. He's sitting on a lottery ticket and wants to cut the fucking thing in half.
 
You could say that about any option that is purchased, they are traded daily at an overwhelming rate. They could also end up being worthless.
 
kjohnson109 said:
You could say that about any option that is purchased, they are traded daily at an overwhelming rate. They could also end up being worthless.
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That's pretty much what I'm saying though. He guessed right, almost there, don't dilute the bet. Every wager has a price, the hedge is a separate wager, separate price. If it loses, sun's coming up anyway, especially in Arizona.
 
But again you can say that about any option that's ever purchased. Most traders will never see that option out to fruition, ever. This is literally identical, it's just a sports option as opposed to a stock option.
 
nbafan88 said:
Depends how important the money is to you.

Hedging is dumb IMO. And this is why I hate playing futures. But if you want to guarantee max profit you'll have to get a lot of money together (if you don't have it) and spread it around on different books I believe. Where did you place the wager?

Is it possible for you to bet that much on your book?
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hedging isn't dumb.
 
kjohnson109 said:
But again you can say that about any option that's ever purchased. Most traders will never see that option out to fruition, ever. This is literally identical, it's just a sports option as opposed to a stock option.
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That's either completely untrue, or I'm the most gullible guy who ever attended a cocktail party.
 
I can understand larry's and cubsker' and KJ's point, I'm not an asshole. I get it. Lack a little starch in your dick, you hedge.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I can understand larry's and cubsker' and KJ's point, I'm not an asshole. I get it. Lack a little starch in your dick, you hedge.
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Right, like you said you think it's being a pussy. I'd again contend it's better to be a pussy than an idiot.
 
Lareux said:
Right, like you said you think it's being a pussy. I'd again contend it's better to be a pussy than an idiot.
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Idiot and pussy are lightning rods. How about bold lions and timid hamsters?
 
tipyerbartender said:
In his instance, I think the book would be happy with less exposure.
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There's no such thing as more or less exposure when the series is over. You didn't answer how the books would be happy if/when Cleveland wins the series if someone hedged. The answer is, they wouldn't be happy btw.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Idiot and pussy are lightning rods. How about bold lions and timid hamsters?
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You said pussy so I used idiot.

Bold and timid don't work...they still both refer to someone's chutzpah, not their intelligence. It's not smart to not guarantee yourself money, regardless of how daring you like to be.
 
Tip I've detected that Monday is not a great day of the week for you to try to make a point
 
Not sure if I missed the question? They'd be happy with less exposure at the beginning. They'd be disappointed to lose money at the end. Answer you're looking for, don't get the question ....
 
tipyerbartender said:
Not sure if I missed the question? They'd be happy with less exposure at the beginning. They'd be disappointed to lose money at the end. Answer you're looking for, don't get the question ....
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The question was pretty straight forward...

If the Cavs win, why would they be happy?

So, in my question, the series is already over, there is no more exposure to speak of.
 
Lareux said:
The question was pretty straight forward...

If the Cavs win, why would they be happy?

So, in my question, the series is already over, there is no more exposure to speak of.
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I was talking about the book's exposure before the series, figuring "I'm just a book, even me up" ... what am I missing?
 
tipyerbartender said:
I was talking about the book's exposure before the series, figuring "I'm just a book, even me up" ... what am I missing?
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But limiting their exposure on the Hawks before the series, if the Cavs win the series, is not only meaningless, it costs them money.

The only way it makes them happy is if the Hawks win the series. Either way, they're paying out money whether the Hawks or Cavs win in a hedge in this situation.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I was talking about the book's exposure before the series, figuring "I'm just a book, even me up" ... what am I missing?
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What you said is that the book would be happy if he was hedging....they would only be happy if the Hawks won was my point. They aren't happy with less exposure if that is going to lead to them losing money if/when the Cavs win. This isn't rocket science Tip.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Hedging also guarantees the book money.
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You also said this. It doesn't guarantee them any more money than they would have won if the hedging didn't happen and the Hawks win, and can only cost them money if the Cavs win. In this case, they were getting $300 if the Cavs win and the Hawks bet wasn't hedged....they lose much more than that if he hedges. It's not guaranteeing them any money really.
 
The book is happy, before the series, with the bettor hedging at the book's number. The only other possible mindset for the book before the series, would be happiness that the bettor let it ride at the old number. And that's not how books feel.
 
tipyerbartender said:
The book is happy, before the series, with the bettor hedging at the book's number. The only other possible mindset for the book before the series, would be happiness that the bettor let it ride at the old number. And that's not how books feel.
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I'm not sure this is true though. They have the Cavs as a 2 to 1 favorite. If he doesn't hedge, they like their chances that the future bet is not going to be paid. Now that he's hedged, they know they're losing money either way.
 
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