Friday Discussion -

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Fri 5/30



</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
A. Cook







</TD><TD></TD><TD>+138</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>11:20 AM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly







</TD><TD></TD><TD>-146</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
M. Hendrickson







</TD><TD>+1.5 -138</TD><TD>+145</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 +101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
B. Myers







</TD><TD>-1.5 +128</TD><TD>-153</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -111</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Kershaw







</TD><TD>+1.5 -162</TD><TD>+133</TD><TD>OVER 8 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>New York Mets
J. Maine







</TD><TD>-1.5 +152</TD><TD>-141</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
T. Glavine







</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+139</TD><TD>OVER 9 -107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
E. Volquez







</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-147</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -103</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Houston Astros
B. Backe







</TD><TD>+1.5 -169</TD><TD>+119</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
M. Parra







</TD><TD>-1.5 +159</TD><TD>-127</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
Z. Duke







</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+155</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -120</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:15 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
T. Wellemeyer







</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-163</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +110</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
T. Redding







</TD><TD>+1.5 -131</TD><TD>+171</TD><TD>OVER 9 +103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>06:40 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
M. Owings







</TD><TD>-1.5 +121</TD><TD>-179</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -113</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
G. Maddux







</TD><TD>+1.5 -194</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>OVER 8 +112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:15 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
M. Cain







</TD><TD>-1.5 +181</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -122</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett







</TD><TD>-1.5 +114</TD><TD>-144</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
D. Cabrera







</TD><TD>+1.5 -124</TD><TD>+136</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -113</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
J. Contreras







</TD><TD>+1.5 -159</TD><TD>+133</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -119</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Shields







</TD><TD>-1.5 +149</TD><TD>-141</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 +109</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
J. Duchscherer







</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-112</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
K. Millwood







</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+104</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -119</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>New York Yankees
M. Mussina







</TD><TD>-1.5 +139</TD><TD>-117</TD><TD>OVER 9 -106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
G. Perkins







</TD><TD>+1.5 -149</TD><TD>+109</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -104</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
C. Lee







</TD><TD>-1.5 +126</TD><TD>-131</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -119</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
G. Meche







</TD><TD>+1.5 -136</TD><TD>+123</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 +109</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
D. McGowan







</TD><TD>+1.5 -180</TD><TD>+115</TD><TD>OVER 8 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>LAA Angels
Jer. Weaver







</TD><TD>-1.5 +170</TD><TD>-123</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Fri 5/30</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
N. Robertson







</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-113</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
C. Silva







</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+105</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -115</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Baltimore
Umpire: Fletcher, Andrew




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Beckett (R)
D Cabrera (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. White Sox at Tampa Bay
Umpire: Barksdale, Lance




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Contreras (R)
J Shields (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Oakland at Texas
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Duchscherer (R)
K Millwood (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Yankees at Minnesota
Umpire: Meals, Jerry




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Mussina (R)
G Perkins (L)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at Kansas City
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>C Lee (L)
G Meche (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at LA Angels
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D McGowan (R)
J Weaver (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at Seattle
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>N Robertson (L)
C Silva (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:20 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Colorado at Chi. Cubs
Umpire: Nauert, Paul




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A Cook (R)
T Lilly (L)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at Philadelphia
Umpire: Barry, Scott




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Hendrickson (L)
B Myers (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>C Kershaw (L)
J Maine (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at Cincinnati
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Glavine (L)
E Volquez (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Houston at Milwaukee
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Backe (R)
M Parra (L)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Z Duke (L)
T Wellemeyer (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Washington at Arizona
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>
T Redding (R)
M Owings (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Diego at San Francisco
Umpire: N/A




</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>G Maddux (R)
M Cain (R)
Bullpen Availability




</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:cheers:
 
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Here are my favorites
Marlins/Phillies OVER 10.5(Really thought the total would be a run lower, but still think it goes over.)
Red Sox/O's OVER 8.5
Dodgers/Mets UNDER 8
Reds RL +142
Indians RL +126
Tigers/Mariners OVER 9.5
 
- Hendrickson looks nice, but i can't bet against the Phils due to my futures bet despite Myers being a gas can.
- Guccione behind the plate and Kershaw (supposedly nasty?) against Maine makes me like the under b/t NYM-LAD.
- Volquez looks nice, but he did pitch in relief in the marathon game against SD a few nights ago?
- Twins + money at home...
- CHW-TB Under looks appetizing for a 2nd straight night
- TOR & LAA have trouble scoring if they get the right Under ump
- Duscherer has looked great lately
- Boston fav's again on the road is pretty stupid, imo
 
I am actually pretty interested in ATLANTA. Glavine as I have said many times is quite a different SP statisically when comparing his day vs night splits. Braves only allowed 5 runs in 3 games @ Milwaukee. The top of the lineup went 9-19 today. I wonder how you can get 6 atbats in a 9inning game and not have the game go over . Anyway ATL has allowed 3 or less in 7 of 10 and 4runs or less in 8 of 10 games.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl> G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.80</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.02</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.300</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>30.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.70</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.238</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Reds still 5-13 in Game 1 series .

Big thing is I wonder how Vozquez reacts to the relief appearance. He has been exceptional all year and basically he pitched every 5th day all season except for 2 starts. So now that routine was broken . Last Sunday he pitched in the marathon and you wonder how his arm bounces back. Granted Latin pitchers tend to have rubber arms but players are supersitious because they hate change. Nothing to do with supersition but this is CHANGE IMO...Will see I guess...only games Volzquez lost Reds were shutout 1-0 and 2-0 which was @ Atlanta. In his starts on 6 days he needed 110 and 112 pitches to get through 6 and 5 innings I believe. This is on 5 days rest cause of the relief appearance but unchartered territory. Granted it was his throw day but side sessions are low stress on the am and body compared to game activity.

Reds are rolling winners of 10 of 12 at home but -160 range seems exceptionally high IMO...

Just something to look at...dont want to make the same mistake I did with Wash today...
 
Being a Red Sox fan doesnt cloud my vision of them, quite the opposite. They've treated me very well since the 2nd half of the 04 season, and my take for their O's series is this. There's gonna be some runs. With their road form not being great (hence lower run avgs, more Unders) it should lead to better lined & priced Overs than otherwise should be the case. hopefully the weather, wind & ump conditions obey my thoughts.

4 games set - 2 Overs minimum, easily see 3. Love the fact they're off 3 straight Unders vs SEA, and the fact the O's went Under 2 of 3 vs Yanks.
 
BC, one thing we can't forget is that the Sox usually OWN the Oreo's, but maybe not this season?
 
it simply means the O's won't lay down like a bitch and score nothing when the Sox put up an early 5 run inning on them. Works for Overs.
 
Jumping to the AL hard for me to pass on Contreras. At one point I said in here that Contreras is perhaps the streakiest SP in baseball. As he is only really good or really bad. Well look at his work since the first few starts have there been better ? Last 4 alone 28 innings 5runs 17 hits and ONLY 5 walks with none in his past two and he is off his best K performance with 10 and 21 in the span!

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1.51</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>35.2</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.175</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4.33</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>27.0</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

you can see once he started getting the ball every 5th day his numbers got really good. Anyway Shields has been just as tough at home with the exception of being tougher in day games then night. Chicago is a lineup I thought had alot of upside especially vs LHSP . Anyway the minor difference is Shields had some struggles previously vs CHI . It seems at least this year with Balt when a team is comfortable vs him they tend to do okay . So thinking maybe thats a trend with him. Probably wait till lineups but just not overly impressed with TB lineup. They have won by outpitching there opponents so far and thats a tough task here even for Shields ...under of course looks attractive but 7.5 in the AL with some issues in TB pen now not real interested. WSox pen hasnt allowed a run in a quite bit at least 9 days I think.....

Yanks @ Minny ?

Moose goes on days which has been good to him outside of the Balt fiasco. Which he didnt really bounce back that well from but was on short rest. Thinking the old guy at this point likes the extra day probably helps his velocity a touch. Perkins is LH so we know the drill since Yanks are what 8-20 now away vs LHSP? However this kid is young and Yanks have the benefit of a day offf . Hard for me to say dont fade NYY vs LHSP on the road but not sure I see value in Minny since I feel they are very overrated .

Conflicted @ Texas. Millwood off the DL usually a fade spot but while Durcherser is hot he is also pitching away and well Oak resurgence I though was due largely to Big Hurt who is now on the DL. So they may be overvalued especially with Chavez taking his atbats after such a long layoff. A's have scored 3 runs in teh 24 innings since he exited . Frank Thomas also owned Millwood going 12-20 with 2 hrs so hug eloss IMO and not trusting of the A's pen as much since Casilla and Brown were lost. So might look at Texas they were swinging so well .

Just where is KC mentally ? The line seems high since its Meche but there is no value in losing wagers. Love Meche but not there lineup and they havent hit vs a LH lately....

Toronto could be gathering steam especially after a 12-0 win. LAA's lineup is really depleted .

Det as road favs vs a RHSP? Think Seattle maybe or pass....

Thats alli really looked at..be back in the AM !:cheers:
 
man... can cook stop the bleeding for the rockies? He has been regressing as of late and i can see him getting hit a decent amount although his sinkerball should impede the cubs from scoring as much as they did today... Just have a real hard time trusting the COL bats lately with no clutch hitter. Nauert the ump tomorrow. Pretty neutral.. higher strike %, nothing special. Guess itll be a wind direction decision...
 
Trueblue said:
man... can cook stop the bleeding for the rockies? He has been regressing as of late and i can see him getting hit a decent amount although his sinkerball should impede the cubs from scoring as much as they did today... Just have a real hard time trusting the COL bats lately with no clutch hitter. Nauert the ump tomorrow. Pretty neutral.. higher strike %, nothing special. Guess itll be a wind direction decision...
Click to expand...

I took Col 1st 5 yesterday and played them today . Basically they dont get many clutch hits and the pitching does what you expect then in a blink implodes. Yesterday tied at 1-1 bt 5th Reynolds impoldes allowing 2 hrs and 5 runs in the 5th and tonight the pen turns a 4-3 game into a 8-4 loss...just no reason to trust them and I would like to look at them vs LHSP away . Cook is there streak stopper but they really are bad..
 
Anaheim's offense has been terrible lately. They haven't scored over 4 runs in their last 9 games. Looking at Toronto.
 
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Cook 118 pitches last start 5 days ago. Previous starts where he went 110+ pitches in his career his team is 0-4 ...


<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD>6/17/2007</TD><TD>TB</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>L</TD><TD>4-7</TD><TD>L -116</TD><TD>O 10.5</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>12.5 </TD><TD>2.00</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>6/12/2007</TD><TD>@ BOS</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>L</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>L 162</TD><TD>U 9.5</TD><TD>7.1</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>119 </TD><TD>16.2</TD><TD>3.50</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD>5/31/2007</TD><TD>STL</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>L</TD><TD>3-7</TD><TD>L -169</TD><TD>O 9</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>12.7 </TD><TD>1.22</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>5/26/2007</TD><TD>@ SF</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>W</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>W 128</TD><TD>U 8.5</TD><TD>9.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>111</TD><TD>12.3 </TD><TD>3.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD>7/26/2006</TD><TD>STL</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>L</TD><TD>1-6</TD><TD>L -127</TD><TD>U 9.5</TD><TD>6.2</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>102</TD><TD>15.3</TD><TD>2.75</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>7/21/2006</TD><TD>@ ARI</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>L</TD><TD>2-6</TD><TD>L -105</TD><TD>U 9.5</TD><TD>4.2</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>112</TD><TD>24.0 </TD><TD>2.25</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD>9/17/2005</TD><TD>@ ARI</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>ND</TD><TD>5-6</TD><TD>L 103</TD><TD>O 9</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>15.3</TD><TD>2.40</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>9/11/2005</TD><TD>ARI</TD><TD>S </TD><TD>W</TD><TD>7-2</TD><TD>W -147</TD><TD>U 12</TD><TD>9.0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>118 </TD><TD>13.1 </TD><TD>3.40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Really wouldnt weigh it that heavily but just something that would indicate Cook's chances of shutting Chi down 2 runs or less is veryu minimal. He allowed at least 4 runs in the next start ...
 
Last edited:
Thoughts.

Went on capping the Zona-Nats game, came up with some facts and figures:

  • Zona have scored 3 runs in each of their last 4 games
  • Byrnes is out
  • Regression following an impressive season opening
  • Nats bats struggling as well
  • No Zimmermann, Kearns, Lo Duca, Belliard hurts them big time
  • Owings home numbers: 3.94 ERA, .248 BAA. Combine that with Nationals slumping offense.
  • Owings has not allowed more than 3 runs in his last 4 games. Only 2 shaky starts this season, against NYM and SD.
  • Owings vs Nationals (5 for 35, .143) Lo Duca and Estrada (both out) are 1 for 3, others have hit nothing off him, limited ABs but anyway.
  • Tim Redding is a road warrior, 2.37 ERA, 0.98! BAA, against Arizona so far (5 for 24, .208)
  • Redding is coming off a sub par outing against Milwaukee. Last time he got rocked at home (against FLA), he bounced back against the New York Mets in NY.
  • # Under is 6-2 in WAS last 8 road games.
    # Under is 11-4 in WAS last 15 overall.
    # Under is 6-2-2 in ARI last 10 Fri. games.
    # Under is 7-3 in ARI last 10 games as a favorite.
    Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Arizona.
    Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.

    Can't find the UMP at the moment.
 
Cubs 23-8 at home vs Col 8-20 away . Rockies SP is off 118 pitch CG 5 days ago and rocks 7-16 against teams with winning records....so on the surface the Rocks have basically about a 30% chance of winning this game. When Cook starts 8-3 and the rest 12-31!

The difference could be the strong wind ( hence the 11.5 total). Cook gets groundballs and Lilly is a flyball pitcher..

This game is gambling at its finest....
 
really hard to back colorado here...or Chicago at that price.. but the total is even harder to mess with. Maybe ill just take CHI for 1st 5... or 1st 5 over. I can see a long ball or two come colorado's way with an elevated fly ball, and as you mentioned, cook should get hit a fair amount.
 
SportsNut said:
Cubs 23-8 at home vs Col 8-20 away . Rockies SP is off 118 pitch CG 5 days ago and rocks 7-16 against teams with winning records....so on the surface the Rocks have basically about a 30% chance of winning this game. When Cook starts 8-3 and the rest 12-31!

The difference could be the strong wind ( hence the 11.5 total). Cook gets groundballs and Lilly is a flyball pitcher..

This game is gambling at its finest....
Click to expand...


Well said, and that's why you have to love it.
 
i would have to give the pitching edge to cook. i think lilly is solid but i like cook's day splits a little better and cook has handled the cubs well. nobody has had much success against cook except edmonds who is in big time slump. ramirez is 0-10. i love betting on the cubs and i don't like to bet against them especially at home but i might have to do it here.
 
the weather is soo fuckin shitty here in chicago i doubt there is going to be a bunch of homers, if they play at all
 
Bos/O's over 8.5 - agree with BC's thread.

Cain at -117? Sign me up. Cain 2-0 1.80 era in his last three home starts. Maddux has been aweful. Period.

TB under 7.5 looks nice.White Sox won last four Contreras starts (3-0, 1.61). Shields is 2-1 1.62 in his last four home starts.


Yanks/Minn - interesting. basically even money. this has all the makings of sucker bet of the year. Lean to Minn.

Hous - Brewers are dreadful. Parra 0-0 4.50 era in his last four home starts. Backe is 2-0 2.63 era in his two starts.
 
Col 2-15 away since starting 6-5 away......1-4 away vs LHP sneaking by Wandy Rodriguez 3-2 with Cook. Th eRockies look worse and worse
 
The relief appearance really hurt Harang..his velocity was maxed at 87 last night..he was 93 in relief on Sunday..and the ball was up all night..

Harang through 63 pitches sunday compared to 39 for Volquez and Volquez has one more day rest..but I'm interested to see how he reacts as well.

I know one thing, the reds owe the Braves an ass whooping from the that three game set in ATL in April.
 
Dont mess with a small ballpark, a flyball pitcher and wind blowing out..usually ends in disaster
 
JumpOnBoard said:
The relief appearance really hurt Harang..his velocity was maxed at 87 last night..he was 93 in relief on Sunday..and the ball was up all night..

Harang through 63 pitches sunday compared to 39 for Volquez and Volquez has one more day rest..but I'm interested to see how he reacts as well.

I know one thing, the reds owe the Braves an ass whooping from the that three game set in ATL in April.
Click to expand...


Very helpful info Jump.
 
took colorado +139... no pop in the cubs lineup other then soriano and lee. Cook knows how bad they need this.. gonna hold my breathe..
 
I went with the over 1 unit . Lilly is a flyball pitcher throwing in a strong wind and Cook has had a history of medicority after throwing 110 pitches. Both pen probably need a breather . Cubs lotta close games and Rockies alot of blwoouts....
 
theriot just has this ability to make pitchers nervous with his base running ability and high average (this year). I dont ever like to see him on base when betting against chicago. anyhow, gl with your bet sn.
 
Trueblue said:
took colorado +139... no pop in the cubs lineup other then soriano and lee. Cook knows how bad they need this.. gonna hold my breathe..
Click to expand...


Good Luck TB. I wont be interested much in COL until I start getting a minimum of +180 even with Cook they are simply terrible. I kinda dont see anything wrong CHI lineup DeRosa .305 4hr 26 rbi and Soto 299avg 9 hr 37 rbi are two solid bats . Fukidome despite his 2 Hrs still has pop and is a good hitter at home . Col has 3-4-5-6 and little else Helton and Ianetta are a stretch as well... outside of Atkins and Helton the Rockie lineup has 43 career Hrs in 3200 career abs which half is Taveras and his 6 hrs but still 37 hrs in 1600 atbats is very little...Helton is basically a 15 Hr guy now and Atkins is 25-30 type.....

Guess today is the DAY we found out how BAD COL actually is....:shake:I just dont like lilly throwing with a strong wiond..
 
Trueblue said:
theriot just has this ability to make pitchers nervous with his base running ability and high average (this year). I dont ever like to see him on base when betting against chicago. anyhow, gl with your bet sn.
Click to expand...

I don't think he's making too many nervous. He's 9 for 17 on SB attempts.
 
Just an FYI its starting to get real warm and I the humidity is rising here in NYC. So be cautious of unders on the Northeast could see alot of balls jumping out tonight...
 
Philly 8-4 at home vs LHSP so far losing to Glavine , Perez and Santana..qand Chico forgot teh season opener. they scored 10 off Purcey and 20 vs DeLaRosa. Hendrickson's only starts vs them he aloowed 7 runs in 3 innings. Myers hasnt been that bad last 2 outings and only 1 poor one at home. So Philly better lineup and better SP gets the edge IMO..........Myers has dropped 6 straight starts now..huge over bias in the series history.....
 
Have played Houston ml. Seem to have better team, better pitcher and better everything. Next 2 starters for both team favor Brewers. Houston 11-9 last 20 on the road to Brewer 10-10 at home. Houston off a loss .583. Brewers off a loss .444. Parra at best just not very good. Not expecting any mercy from a hungry talented Houston team.
 
The game @ Wrigley is sickening . I still have not recovered from the KC meltdown up with 2 outs and 1 out in the 9th ..and the 17 units it cost me.

I just dont get why that MILW line has moved so much its scaring me off it....

Good Luck Jimbo..
 
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