Odds
Friday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Opening night of the series so hit South Beach early angle. I like it. Starters that aren't pitching this weekend might still be out (mind you I'm West and it's still dark so this is just a hunch)
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
The outside actual baseball stuff is always in the back of my mind. @2daBank clued me onto some of it with Gallen on East Coast day games and has been locked in more than once. Considering that these guys are smack in the middle of a playoff race, I think backing off from the partying prevails in this spot though. Then again, it IS Miami and maybe we have a few Puffy Combs admirers who want to reenact some of that Miami freak.
The Farm
Sports Apothecary
90 cents is a hefty price in Camden against a team on magic mushrooms. Both pitchers seen by the other team less than a week ago. Keider with 5 scoreless and what AJ has done with our pen. CB 7 scoreless. I always wondered how long hitters kept at bats against an opposing pitcher in their mind. A month ago I would have hammered the O's run line and sprinkled in a couple ML parlays. Still may. What you say board?
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I'm done trying to figure out if the Orioles want to win or not.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I too hate the Dodgers so I guess I can relate lol
The Farm
Sports Apothecary
3-7 last ten against teams already out or Cinderella story chances. KC always pushes last week. I'm not sure either.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Mate I was at games 1, 6 and 7 in 2001 feeling as patriotic as ever! G6 I sold 10 tickets to NYY fans that flew in from all over the country for the game and sat next to them. If you remember the game, it was over so fast. And my buddy and I were sitting next to these freaks that paid top dollar lol
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Man compare the WS against any other big sporting event. How awesome that it's basically the only championship that's still accessible. Costly but not close to NFL/NBA/NHL
Never been to any of those nor have I wanted to really. But WS been great, 2001, 2014 g6 and g7, 2015 g1....to the point I actually sold my g2 tickets for face value day of the game to a husband/wife in KC that were desperate. Was in a hotel bar, from the room I could see in the stadium. Across the freeway from Kaufman. G1 was long, I'm sure you remember and I was so spent that I just wanted to be close to a bed the next night lol. Bunch of Mets fans in that hotel...
Never been to any of those nor have I wanted to really. But WS been great, 2001, 2014 g6 and g7, 2015 g1....to the point I actually sold my g2 tickets for face value day of the game to a husband/wife in KC that were desperate. Was in a hotel bar, from the room I could see in the stadium. Across the freeway from Kaufman. G1 was long, I'm sure you remember and I was so spent that I just wanted to be close to a bed the next night lol. Bunch of Mets fans in that hotel...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
There bound to be an under somewhere. After the obvious one getting blown up fast last night as my boy Cabrera had one his “days”, oh and @bulldogs gave us that bs bout maybe Ohtani be out of lineup not going 6 for 6 with however many bombs and steals!! His back looked super hurt @bulldogs !!
just messing with ya buddy, I was on Cabrera regardless before you brought that up, I’m the sucker here! Guess we both were w you going the 1stv3 under route (something I might have did also if I was playing full card!). Anyways I could def see today the less obvious day without the big name pitchers (not that Morton not a good pitcher just don’t think he thought of in same way as other guys even tho he belongs in conversation), bellozo has has a solid outing vs Braves already and Braves lineup ain’t nearly as scary dodgers right now. I think the fact I hit 2 more nfl props last night while I missed a few more mlb props I didn’t post cause I didn’t want anyone tailing them! Just speaks to fact it’s football time! I got a few ncaa props I like tonight! Unfortunately I can’t play the Illini game as you can’t bet Illinios schools in Illinios, that ok tho, that game tougher to predict, stanford/cuse gonna be the exciting game!!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Yeah this one smells "fishy" to me lolThere bound to be an under somewhere. After the obvious one getting blown up fast last night as my boy Cabrera had one his “days”, oh and @bulldogs gave us that bs bout maybe Ohtani be out of lineup not going 6 for 6 with however many bombs and steals!! His back looked super hurt @bulldogs !!
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Cleveland clinches the playoffs, parties it up and now flies to St Louis.
Not a long flight but call me square but it sure seems like a flat spot for them. Gibson 3 good starts in a row and I could see Cleveland trot a Dusty Baker "B" team style lineup out. Lively looked good last game vs TB but has some stinkers of late as well.
Cards hitting .366 vs Lively in a small sample size of 41 ABs. Gibson doesn't have great numbers vs Cleveland but if you take out Ramirez it's not bad.
I played one unit on St Louis -112 and think the number will go up when Cleveland's trash lineup gets announced later today. Good luck if you play it with me.
Not a long flight but call me square but it sure seems like a flat spot for them. Gibson 3 good starts in a row and I could see Cleveland trot a Dusty Baker "B" team style lineup out. Lively looked good last game vs TB but has some stinkers of late as well.
Cards hitting .366 vs Lively in a small sample size of 41 ABs. Gibson doesn't have great numbers vs Cleveland but if you take out Ramirez it's not bad.
I played one unit on St Louis -112 and think the number will go up when Cleveland's trash lineup gets announced later today. Good luck if you play it with me.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I never got great prices for nlcs or WS but yes much more accessible than like SB but like you I wouldn’t go to a SB for free, I’d go to the SB city for that week but far as actual game you better off going to a playoff game or even reg season game at kc or whomever your team is, it all bout atmosphere and the SB is awful imo. I guess a nba finals be fun but I havnt had a nba team since Jordan retired and I stopped claiming my Chicago roots (moved to stl at like 3 or 4 years old, lol), but when I wanted to be Chicago team fan I claimed it quick! I used love being Blackhawks fan cause it pissed all my friends off here but somewhere along the way when we used to go to blues playoff games when I was 12-13-14 (many against Blackhawks) I converted off Blackhawks to blues. I’m not huge hockey fan but if I still did the things I did back when cardinals were in WS I woulda liked to see a Stanley cup final game cause hockey playoff atmosphere are awesome, I’m sure tickets to that coulda been had for drug dealer prices. Which bout what I used to pay for me and my brother to go to the nlcs vs Astros with the Pujols home run, the year Red Sox came back on yanks, I didn’t shell out for tix to that WS, Red Sox had already beat our ass 2x in Boston and I knew we wernt winning, no chance I’m spending few k if I know we losing. Paid around 2k the following time the went and beat tigers in 5 we went to game 5., I had just got out of prison when we had the amazing comeback on rangers year so I watched at bar downtown, wasn’t all the extra money around 2 months out the joint. Lol .. anyways I’m mostly with you but I think Stanley Cup would be comparable and hockey live is so much better than on tv!! Pretty much opposite of football where live is boring to me, only fb games I ever cared to go to were like when stl rams were greatest show and playing on a Monday night, again atmosphere but actually watching football better on TV and the SB just doesn’t seem like it provides the same kinda experience.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not square at all, I havnt looked at anything but I’ve always been a big believer of fading team day after clinching. Gibson k’s might be worth a look! Dammit you guys, just when I thought I was out you pulling me back in!! lol
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Will 100 % get to a WS game when the Mets get in.. when that is.. no clue.
Stanley Cup is the obvious one that is most attractive to me, but us regular folk are priced out of it. Hell even regular season games at MSG are becoming unaffordable.
I will attend a Final 4 before I die, that much I know.
Superbowl couldn't care less.
NBA is gone to me.
World Cup 2026 will be attended.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
@peelpub94 looks to me like there some pretty sweet prices on the unders in Miami starting in 3rd inning u1.5 is like +175! U2.5 is only -120 and that usually pricy! And it looks like most the sheep are hitting the over so if we wait around awhile prices might even get better. Maybe taking off bases wasn’t the answer maybe moving off mlb props til playoffs makes sense tho and going old school (3-4 years ago! Lol) and just playing few sides or totals!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I think both K props are in order. Lively left early on Sep 10, got hit with line drive in leg. Other than that 4K's have been attainable for him.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Intensity on every pitch is so awesome
I went to the NFC 'ship Cards/Eagles in 2008/09. No chance the SB which ended up being historic in Tampa would have been a better atmosphere. Obv when the Cards lost I just wanted to go to sleep. Don't even remember the 40 minute drive home from the Chandler bar we watched at. Guarantee there was no postgame radio on.
Now that we have no NHL team the SC is out the window. If the Suns ever get there and look promising, I'll spend. City would go crazy. Suns were born in 1969...Cards moved here in the mid 80s, Snakes were 1998. So the Suns are pretty much ingrained here more than the others.
Buddy saved and gave me his SB ticket from the Brady/Falcons game he got as a prize when he was with directv. Face value $2300 and that's lower goal line lol. I can actually list the ticket on ebay and get a healthy amount. Shit's stupid. I wouldn't have paid $25 to go toa a Pats/Falcons game that season even on the 50 yard line. Everything is so corporate now
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If I knew you back when I was a mid level distributor of certain things I woulda bought us tix to a Stanley cup! Hockey is anazing live, and just the playoffs the atmosphere was so so good. When I was a kid we could get dropped off downtown by one our parents and go to playoff games at old barn for like less than 40 a ticket! Blues new place has gotten super pricey even in reg season, u imagine you almost have to be a drug dealer to get into the Stanley cup (lots of expendable cash nothing else to do with but have a good time!! I loved those years, prison for 3.5 was so worth it!!!! lol). In NY prob 3-5x more than here, have to really be moving weight! lol
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Same dude the SB in Houston got to go to Belo Horizonte for the WC semi courtesy of dtv....was the match in Brazil where Germany skull fucked them 7-1. He and wifey have no clue about soccer but that was a historic game. They said there was zero traffic that day, like literally no one was on the road.
Kinda upset we don't get a WC match here. Sucks we're the 4/5th biggest city by population in the country but too close to LA to get a Cup match. Might travel if matchups are intriguing.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea suns finals would be blast. I remember way back when they played Jordan. Back then all their playoff games looked pretty awesome. Think they might have priced out the funnest ppl tho, I hate when they do that. The old barn blues played in was a fucking dump but it was so awesome cause the uppers were filled with drunken idiots!! I remember when they 1st opened the new place I was being warned by ushers left and right just for making funny jokes bout flyers to some their fans who were there! That’s how I was raised to watch hockey, there be so many fights when we were teens going to those blues/blackhawks playoff games. Tons of taunting back and forth: Now everyone an uptight asshole in stands. I will admit the food and service was the bomb!! Spread before game plus they bring whatever to your seat during game and hockey really is much much better live, like on tv it ok but live it amazing how fast the game is! It’s still fun but not how I grew up going to games went!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
What world cup tix going for? Kc is hosting some ain’t they? I can’t bring myself to care bout mls like the ppl who bought in around here when stl got a team, I really can’t even get into premier league even tho I have tried, but I have grown to fucjing love euro, copa, World Cup soccer. 20 years ago when I could do whatever I wanted I woulda made so much fun of myself cause I was a American dummy with a total soccer disdain, always fucked w my friends who even played soccer in school, lol. It took soccer being the 1st sport back from pandemic for me to figure out it actually pretty awesome! I’d watch a full WC match way before a full Thu night or Monday night or and other night football game.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Went to that old barn once in college for a concert. Was Mary J, Silk, Shai, BBD and Montel Jordan lol
3 hour drive but went to StL for a couple concerts at the outdoor amphitheater too. Not even sure who the headliner was but TLC were singing Waterfalls and the biggest crack of lightning went off in the sky and it started pouring. Was the coolest thing I've ever seen at a concert
3 hour drive but went to StL for a couple concerts at the outdoor amphitheater too. Not even sure who the headliner was but TLC were singing Waterfalls and the biggest crack of lightning went off in the sky and it started pouring. Was the coolest thing I've ever seen at a concert
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
If you told me 15 years ago I'd be paying dues to an English soccer club I'd have kicked myself in the dick
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Right on, the weed gummy kicked in and I stopped at the Miami game to look at total prices then we started talking bout all this other stuff and I totally forgot I was wanting to look at those lol. I’m in such a good mood. Theresa was supposed to start new kind of treatment today but it was gonna be a all day deal and I don’t think she ready for after having surgery few days ago and really just getting over all the awful side effects the last drug they tried gave her. Thought I was gonna be stuck at cancer center all day but we moved till next week!! They super understanding w her, think they understand what kind of hell she going thru, I do think she starting to finally feel better from that last experimental med they tried so think she be started to get up and able to live a little at least this week, I didht want her starting a new treatment and then this one making her sick all over again just yet,, who knows tho this one might not be so bad for her, she handled chemo really well.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I saw Cyprus Hill there and got the most awesome mushrooms from some crazy cat w huge ass duffle bag of them selling in parking lot!!! Mfer was wondering around talking to himself and I’m like “my dude, what you got?” He pull me behind car and opens this big ass bag, I was w 2 hotties but neither one them bitches would eat any with me! Ended up wondering around to other ppl during concert but after it was over they were annoying me cause I was tripping balls and they were not on my level! Didnt end up getting to fuck either one of them that night!! Pretty sure it was my fault, remember I was in bed with one but I was still tripping and the vibe just wasn’t working for that, think she actually was mad at me after that night cause we didn’t talk for min and she ended up fucjing one my friends, lolz . Oh well, win some, lose some! I had a really good time!!! lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t love playing k props against cle but maybe in this spot? I really never got on the Gibson k train like @peelpub94 did, it just hard for me to play a guy with a swing and miss rate low as his, that said he still manages to have big punch out games, maybe the fact he gets a lot of them without high swing and miss a good thing against cle since they not a real free swinging lineup overall. Especially if it the B squad or bunch of guys working off a hangover!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
See this is the problem. Being on level ground.
I have a story about a bus ride in Vegas where she went to a room at Rio and was on shrooms while I wasn't. Had to control her for the 5 minute bus ride back to Bally's while she was announcing how wasted she was. Not peak performance but it was an important meat up for the rest of the 2 weeks I stayed there on that trip.
Honestly I really should be dead but life has said hold my beer. I blame it on genetics.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That’s my biggest problem, I always treated life like I wasn’t gonna be here that long. Next thing ya know you gettin old as shit, or what I thought was old 10-20 years ago! Still not sure I act anywhere close to my age other than being little smarter, nicer, and wiser., still pretty much a fuck up half man-child. Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So we looking at possibly under in Mia, I prefer 1st 3 and Ff to game, I don’t see any reason to have to sweat out bullpens, if they go over 3rd and 5th I doubt the game stays under. I don’t see the point in dealing with 9 whole innings!
Looking at cards off @Marsski suggestion. Full game ml cheap enough seems like right thing to do. Def want some of Gibson k prop at 4.5 if I’m playing cards, not like I trust their lineup to score a bunch, actually unders prob in play there also?
Anything else?
Looking at cards off @Marsski suggestion. Full game ml cheap enough seems like right thing to do. Def want some of Gibson k prop at 4.5 if I’m playing cards, not like I trust their lineup to score a bunch, actually unders prob in play there also?
Anything else?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Dead serious Hard Rock sent me a 49.5 half birthday promo
I forget my birthday most years but the half BD is next level
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Im not the biggest burnes fan, all tigers lefty bats getting another look at his cutter? I’m so out on o’s, I was actually pretty early to the sell party on o’s, all a sudden before all star break I bet against them which was something I really havnt did in like a year! Ever since they have seemed progressively worse to me, they so young and missing vet like mountcastle, just not sure they know how to get out their own way right now, and I hate trying to get in way of a team that has magic juice flowing like tigers, I took the hit trying it with kc in gm 3, im ok with that but I rather eat that loss than compound it thinking I can get them back. I just can’t lay it when tigers are playing ball on a higher level than o’s right now. To me it the plus money or maybe some form of tigers to get an early run or 2 off Burnes. Most likely it just a stay away for me but I think it some kinda play on tigers or nothing honestly.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I knew you had posted one more I was missing, finally made my way back up to top to find it, Mr my season over being 1st to post! Lol. I’m gonna check out now but not sure if I’d be willimg to play him and some type of unders in Miami, I think it one or the other I don’t want too much riding against the stupid offensive spree in Miami. Lol. Which you prefer his k’s or some type of under?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
While I totally understand liking that number w Bellozo his style of pitching I think I rather trust him to have a solid outing and keep scoring down. 4 is such an easy number to get these days! 3.5 does make it tough not to play but I do feel like the less imposing Braves lineup has become missing some big hitters they have also become less dependable to strike out a lot! More contact guys in lineup than swing out of shoes guys and Bellozo stuff isn’t really punch anyone stuff, it more a mix of pitches you would hope he gets lot quick outs with. If guys don’t chase or get caught looking 
they prob making contact on him, the hope is it mostly weaker contact.
they prob making contact on him, the hope is it mostly weaker contact.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
This just seems like the game where joe public sees an aging vet and a name they don't recognize and slam the over because of recent bias. This seems like the under spot, (I'm probably wrong lol). Then again, analytics say Bellozo is overperforming a bit, and due for a correction. Righties slugging 550 against him.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Analytics will always hate him cause what I said above, he doesn’t really have stuff he gonna throw in the zone and get by many ppl but this where me and analytics disagree vehemently, I’m of the belief there been and always will be pitchers who might not possesses insane velo and spin rates but can locate and know how to pitch, forcing weak contact and succeed more than fail. It kinda like nfl trying to go with all these athletic kids playing qb and acting like a guy like cousins isn’t valuable. Its nonsense. Sure guys who pitch more to contact and can’t blow you away will have outings they get hit but sure as shit the flame throwers the analytics love tend to have bad games themselves! There only the rare few that can pitch like the analytics suggest the only way that isn’t “luck” to get outs by contact, and can harness control. Those are the elite. Their plenty of grey area analytics choose to ignore and I’ve done pretty well playing on certain pitchers they always waiting for “regression” on,, then after they lose 7-8 bets and he inevitably has a bad day they all very proud they knew “regression” was comin. Meanwhile I’m pretty happy I been lining my pockets w soft numbers cause they kept betting against a guy!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Honestly I’m a little more concerned with Morton’s numbers in Miami over his career! He has pitched well vs them in atl but he has been blown up more than a time or 2 in Miami. I tend to think maybe less partying this trip seeing how they fighting for playoff spot and need him to pitch well? I think he a pro and should at least give us 5 solid here. I’m loving the fact the 1st 3 under 2.5 is super cheap and Ff u4.5 is damn near free at -105. Wondering if it gets bet any more over and price gets better? I dunno but think I’m with you on this.i dunno when Miami became such a hitters park I still think it more pitcher friendly than the band box Braves just left in cincy!
Lesson learned yesterday. Its overs at all Marlin home games rest of year. I m still pissed about yesterday and more pissed that I didnt go to gm
Been to 4 sb, last one being 2009 in Tampa, 3 ws and 1 nba final. But best of all I am a season ticket holder for Panthers and attended every playoff gm but 1 this past season. Hockey is best event to go to.
