Friday Discussion Thread

I didn’t count on this happening but I think we have a banger out total.

Wacha ov 17.5 -140

I did this one in my car while putting bets together so maybe my math a little off, let’s be real my math doesn’t make sense to anyone but me anyways, lol. Feel like -140 incredibly cheap here. This should be way more like -220 imo. Just cause Saydez shit the bed on me last series doesn’t change the reason I be on that clown in 1st place. Rhp’s worth a damn are putting up longer starts against giants than they do other teams. Wacha is a 6 inning machine anyways. None his circumstances tonight have anything that sets off any kind of red flag. Matter fact I think the stars line up pretty good and I’ve always been a wacha fan, didn’t like cards letting him go! I’ve seen him be that guy in playoff games when he was just a kid, the fact kc needs a big time performance here, the fact giants are ripe to get shut down for 6+ quick innings. The fact just yesterday they had Eflin lined at 18.5 or I eluida played him to go 6 makes no sense. It might be debatable but I have no issue saying I’d take wacha over Eflin, fact is they prob pretty close but for some reason they giving us a discount on waxha, not just in price but a full out lower, the biggest out there is!!! Ya gotta play this, I can’t promise it hits but I promise it hits far more often than the -140 price tag suggest so gotta play it!!
 
KJ said:
Intensity on every pitch is so awesome

I went to the NFC 'ship Cards/Eagles in 2008/09. No chance the SB which ended up being historic in Tampa would have been a better atmosphere. Obv when the Cards lost I just wanted to go to sleep. Don't even remember the 40 minute drive home from the Chandler bar we watched at. Guarantee there was no postgame radio on.

Now that we have no NHL team the SC is out the window. If the Suns ever get there and look promising, I'll spend. City would go crazy. Suns were born in 1969...Cards moved here in the mid 80s, Snakes were 1998. So the Suns are pretty much ingrained here more than the others.

Buddy saved and gave me his SB ticket from the Brady/Falcons game he got as a prize when he was with directv. Face value $2300 and that's lower goal line lol. I can actually list the ticket on ebay and get a healthy amount. Shit's stupid. I wouldn't have paid $25 to go toa a Pats/Falcons game that season even on the 50 yard line. Everything is so corporate now
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SB in Tampa was 90% steeler fans
 
bulldogs said:
Lesson learned yesterday. Its overs at all Marlin home games rest of year. I m still pissed about yesterday and more pissed that I didnt go to gm
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This not a good thought process buddy. I took a little hit on mlb yesterday also,, missed few I didn’t post cause I didn’t want anyone to follow. I’m worried from your emotional state you maybe went a little overboard? Just stick w the plan baby, gotta mananga thr money and not overreact in a sport if you bet every day shit gonna go wrong!! Gotta be betting in a manner it easy to shrug off and make up another day!!! Hit the sticky icky, take a deep breath, if you did lose your money management just chalk it up as a learning lesson (believe me I’ve had many very expensive lessons over the years!) just forget it happened and go back to basics don’t come in mad looking to get everything back, no sense compounding a mistake w bigger one, that how come lots of guys can’t win at basebal!
 
2daBank said:
This not a good thought process buddy. I took a little hit on mlb yesterday also,, missed few I didn’t post cause I didn’t want anyone to follow. I’m worried from your emotional state you maybe went a little overboard? Just stick w the plan baby, gotta mananga thr money and not overreact in a sport if you bet every day shit gonna go wrong!! Gotta be betting in a manner it easy to shrug off and make up another day!!! Hit the sticky icky, take a deep breath, if you did lose your money management just chalk it up as a learning lesson (believe me I’ve had many very expensive lessons over the years!) just forget it happened and go back to basics don’t come in mad looking to get everything back, no sense compounding a mistake w bigger one, that how come lots of guys can’t win at basebal!
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Im good. At least I didnt have to stress about it. They kicked my ass early and often.
 
2daBank said:
Honestly I’m a little more concerned with Morton’s numbers in Miami over his career! He has pitched well vs them in atl but he has been blown up more than a time or 2 in Miami. I tend to think maybe less partying this trip seeing how they fighting for playoff spot and need him to pitch well? I think he a pro and should at least give us 5 solid here. I’m loving the fact the 1st 3 under 2.5 is super cheap and Ff u4.5 is damn near free at -105. Wondering if it gets bet any more over and price gets better? I dunno but think I’m with you on this.i dunno when Miami became such a hitters park I still think it more pitcher friendly than the band box Braves just left in cincy!
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I haven't had the energy to dig into it, but on the surface I think its simply a matter of their pitching staff having next to nothing they can consistently rely on. Their bullpen is bottom 3 in era and whip, so this is where the party starts most of the time. Looking at park factors, nothing stands out either. MIA team offense at home is bottom half in all categories too.
 
They are pitching a bunch of kids. season is over for them. Their best went yesterday and he had nothing and didnt seem to care.
 
peelpub94 said:
I haven't had the energy to dig into it, but on the surface I think its simply a matter of their pitching staff having next to nothing they can consistently rely on. Their bullpen is bottom 3 in era and whip, so this is where the party starts most of the time. Looking at park factors, nothing stands out either. MIA team offense at home is bottom half in all categories too.
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I seriously used to think of that place as a pitchers park. lol. I’m still not scared to play an under, I don’t give a fuck! Granted I laid off the under yesterday but I took a hit with Cabrera having one his “what the fuck” games and not touching his k prop, whatever’s, im used to that happening at like 45% the time I play him, that why I try to get him at plus!! lol.

Far as what’s going on with the runs maybe mlb punk asses using juiced balls down there, who freaking knows. Either way I’m down for the 1st 3 under 2.5 and Ff u 4.5, we see what happens.
 
bulldogs said:
Im on the road all day today so need a few thoughts on plays. Anything on cubs gm?
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Trevor Williams last start was May 30th, don't care to look up his rehab numbers. Taillon been good for Cubs. Cubs essentially have to win out, their next 9 games to have any hope of a WC.. I've lost faith in them to be honest. Losing 2/3 from Oakland was my last straw.
 
bulldogs said:
They are pitching a bunch of kids. season is over for them. Their best went yesterday and he had nothing and didnt seem to care.
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Yes but if you been betting on Cabrera for as many years I have you would know this nothing new, you always gotta know he has a chance of being awful and just not throwing strikes, I was worried bout the number of lefties dodgers had cause he tends to get more walk centric on that side the plate even tho he has thar filthy change that should make him unpleasant on lefties!! He a rollar coaster and has been for 3 or so years. This guy going tonight 1 has the benefit of not facing dodgers lineup, 2 is mostly a lower walk rate guy who pitches to contact. I think he has enough diversity in his pitches he can hold this lineup to a few runs over 5+, not walking guys goes a long damn way in not allowing a bunch of runs, it not like many teams actually hit well enough to put bunch of hits together for big innings, they need walks, he has only walked more than 2 one time since he been up. I don’t think these kids don’t care it just a matter of in Cabrera case being wildly inconsistent, in the others maybe not ready, at any rate I think this Bellozo kid who 24 seems about what he profiles as, he has for the most part pitches pretty consistently outside a few ugly starts one at coors. Not saying ya should join us on any the unders but I wouldn’t just think play over play over. That said I’m not interested in full game, if it’s gonna stay under for game I think the 1st 3 and 5 pretty much have to stay under, after that who knows what happens when the pens get brought in? Either one could hand out a crooked number or 2. Maybe I lose the ones I played today, I can live with it, think they the right plays.
 
peelpub94 said:
Trevor Williams last start was May 30th, don't care to look up his rehab numbers. Taillon been good for Cubs. Cubs essentially have to win out, their next 9 games to have any hope of a WC.. I've lost faith in them to be honest. Losing 2/3 from Oakland was my last straw.
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Yea I didn’t have any interest even capping it, nats still play hard far as I can tell, I dunno wtf happens there and I’m trying to at least limit my bases since you guys basically killed my plan to stop completely! Lol
 
bulldogs said:
SB in Tampa was 90% steeler fans
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I'm in mortgages, that was the heart of the housing crisis and in AZ houses lost around 2/3 of their value so a spendy vacation wasn't in the cards to go. And it would have been a long trip home ffs. We're made up of transplants, there's a Steeler's bar in Cave Creek (pretty much as far North in the Valley as you can go) that had over 10k for that game. Obviously held outside.
 
2daBank said:
Love when I latch on to one of these earlier. I noticed you have played him a few times. Feel like I’m late to party to start. Plus I don’t even know who A’s playing! lol
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Been on him the entire year, was a big part of my fantasy team!
 
peelpub94 said:
CLE/STL FF u4.5 -109
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This and tigers in some fashion the 2 I left off that I was itching to play. I sad enough is snough after the early Mia unders. Cards and Gibson k’s, plus wacha outs. I gotta at least make less plays if I said it was time to chill!! lol
 
2daBank said:
This and tigers in some fashion the 2 I left off that I was itching to play. I sad enough is snough after the early Mia unders. Cards and Gibson k’s, plus wacha outs. I gotta at least make less plays if I said it was time to chill!! lol
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Wife and I made the decision to stay in tonight so I need something to keep me interested in some of these useless games.
 
Going to try this once more. Verlander is hittable right now. This has hit last 9/10 vs RHP before last night.

LAA TT o3.5 +140

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peelpub94 said:
Wife and I made the decision to stay in tonight so I need something to keep me interested in some of these useless games.
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Huge series for the Snakes. Got beaten up by the Brew last weekend at home, now time to try it on the road and possibly even the playoffs.

Gurriel should be back at some point this weekend and I saw that Alec Thomas was moved to a 7 day DL retroactive to last weekend. To think about what the offense has gone through in the last couple months (Walker, Marte, Moreno, Gurriel, Thomas all starters that have been out) it's amazing that we're sitting where we are right now.
 
KJ said:
Huge series for the Snakes. Got beaten up by the Brew last weekend at home, now time to try it on the road and possibly even the playoffs.

Gurriel should be back at some point this weekend and I saw that Alec Thomas was moved to a 7 day DL retroactive to last weekend. To think about what the offense has gone through in the last couple months (Walker, Marte, Moreno, Gurriel, Thomas all starters that have been out) it's amazing that we're sitting where we are right now.
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They have been incredible.

Check this out..

I signed up for a 12 week baseball analytics course. The professor is your guy, Max Phillips, assistant director baseball ops with the Diamondbacks for the past 8 years. Starts in November. Really psyched for this.
 
peelpub94 said:
They have been incredible.

Check this out..

I signed up for a 12 week baseball analytics course. The professor is your guy, Max Phillips, assistant director baseball ops with the Diamondbacks for the past 8 years. Starts in November. Really psyched for this.
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Good stuff. Arizona Fall League should be in full effect and I'm hearing this will be by far the best year for top prospects to be playing.

I'm not aware of Max per se but pretty cool to have a higher up discussing analytics. Have a buddy that's a VP among other titles and I still think back to when he asked for a copy of our spreadsheet with ump stats. That had to be over a decade ago but still find it hilarious that the brass wanted that lol
 
KJ said:
Good stuff. Arizona Fall League should be in full effect and I'm hearing this will be by far the best year for top prospects to be playing.

I'm not aware of Max per se but pretty cool to have a higher up discussing analytics. Have a buddy that's a VP among other titles and I still think back to when he asked for a copy of our spreadsheet with ump stats. That had to be over a decade ago but still find it hilarious that the brass wanted that lol
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Yeah we've come a long way since then. My question is, what's left that we're not already doing with the infusion of AI, and everything else available to us.
 
peelpub94 said:
Yeah we've come a long way since then. My question is, what's left that we're not already doing with the infusion of AI, and everything else available to us.
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The human element. Emotion, situations that go beyond statistics which is what I thrive on. AI can't cap situations.
 
KJ said:
The human element. Emotion, situations that go beyond statistics which is what I thrive on. AI can't cap situations.
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Yeah thats the obvious answer, but I'll say it again, what mythical learnings can we possibly teach on the human element side?
 
peelpub94 said:
Yeah thats the obvious answer, but I'll say it again, what mythical learnings can we possibly teach on the human element side?
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We can't. It's all about capping thought which is why meditation and as Samuel Meatballs used to say, capping the universe. Some might call it superstition, I prefer intuition.

Someone on FB posted a photo of three bobcats this week sleeping in the shade of her front doorstep. If I can get a line on Montana State tomorrow, it will be played! Sammy would be thrilled to know this. Unfortunately there are not teams with a raccoon as a mascot.
 
KJ said:
We can't. It's all about capping thought which is why meditation and as Samuel Meatballs used to say, capping the universe. Some might call it superstition, I prefer intuition.

Someone on FB posted a photo of three bobcats this week sleeping in the shade of her front doorstep. If I can get a line on Montana State tomorrow, it will be played! Sammy would be thrilled to know this. Unfortunately there are not teams with a raccoon as a mascot.
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How did long john silver pirate day go the other day lol
 
I always think of Fondy and Sailor Jerry on Pirate Day. Never had the Sailor, not even sure where to find it but what's the point when Cpt Morgan is $10 for a 1.75? Rum is way too sweet for me but it serves its purpose occasionally. It's like an alcohol infused pixie stick.
 
KJ said:
I always think of Fondy and Sailor Jerry on Pirate Day. Never had the Sailor, not even sure where to find it but what's the point when Cpt Morgan is $10 for a 1.75? Rum is way too sweet for me but it serves its purpose occasionally. It's like an alcohol infused pixie stick.
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You need to get a proper tiki drink or a basic mai tai
 
peelpub94 said:
You need to get a proper tiki drink or a basic mai tai
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Man I don't do sugar which is why rum is not a do good for me. I did the When in Rome the first time I went to Maui and drank Mai Tais all trip and that basically was the end of tiki drinks for me. So much sugar....which is why if I have to drink rum anymore it's either straight or with soda water. Pretty sure I haven't had a rum drink in the last decade.
 
Will still be 90s/100s here for the next 30 days, pool drink I've settled on is vodka/unsweetened iced tea. Been doing that for several years and it's delicious.
 
KJ said:
Man I don't do sugar which is why rum is not a do good for me. I did the When in Rome the first time I went to Maui and drank Mai Tais all trip and that basically was the end of tiki drinks for me. So much sugar....which is why if I have to drink rum anymore it's either straight or with soda water. Pretty sure I haven't had a rum drink in the last decade.
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Same brother. Sugar is the fucking devil. But then again, any alcohol we drink becomes sugar.
 
peelpub94 said:
Same brother. Sugar is the fucking devil. But then again, any alcohol we drink becomes sugar.
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Yeah it all metabolizes to sugar, I just don't want to taste it like sugar! Tequila is my get well liquor, vod is par for the course, whiskey/Scotch in Winter which is only a couple months here. Rare occasions gin and rum but I'm not keen on either.

If I talk about wine understand that I'm actually in a relationship, both with the wine and a gal that's at least 5 years younger than me.

There's my alcohol maniac in a nutshell.
 
Joc Pederson HR +400

Think there's some extreme correlation here between his batting profile and Rea's pitch mix. Eventhough Joc been quiet lately on the HR front, this feels good.
 
KJ said:
Yeah it all metabolizes to sugar, I just don't want to taste it like sugar! Tequila is my get well liquor, vod is par for the course, whiskey/Scotch in Winter which is only a couple months here. Rare occasions gin and rum but I'm not keen on either.

If I talk about wine understand that I'm actually in a relationship, both with the wine and a gal that's at least 5 years younger than me.

There's my alcohol maniac in a nutshell.
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Gin, Vodka & Tequila soda are my goto gonna have 12 drinks. Beer is long in the past. 2 of them and I turn into a bloated fart bag. I'll have maybe 5-10 actual beers per year. Mostly when I'm at Wrigley. Cant avoid a dog and bud draft.

Yeah, the wine comes out when wife wants it or when I'm cooking w/ it, otherwise, that shit puts me to sleep.
 
peelpub94 said:
Joc Pederson HR +400

Think there's some extreme correlation here between his batting profile and Rea's pitch mix. Eventhough Joc been quiet lately on the HR front, this feels good.
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He's just been so bad the last ten days. I kinda wish they'd sit him for a series and let him just take BP behind the scene. He looks so uncomfortable at the plate right now. Of course I hope you get it and he finds a groove but it's been worse than ugly lately.
 
peelpub94 said:
Gin, Vodka & Tequila soda are my goto gonna have 12 drinks. Beer is long in the past. 2 of them and I turn into a bloated fart bag. I'll have maybe 5-10 actual beers per year. Mostly when I'm at Wrigley. Cant avoid a dog and bud draft.

Yeah, the wine comes out when wife wants it or when I'm cooking w/ it, otherwise, that shit puts me to sleep.
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Funny you bring up Wrigley. I've never been but went on Opening Day at the Spring Training joint in Tempe/Mesa after they won the WS. It is a mini Wrigley. First time I ever had an Old Style (huge can) and Bill Buckner was there signing shit. Fun day but I was the DD for the 40 minute drive so one OS was as lubed as I got that day.
 
KJ said:
Funny you bring up Wrigley. I've never been but went on Opening Day at the Spring Training joint in Tempe/Mesa after they won the WS. It is a mini Wrigley. First time I ever had an Old Style (huge can) and Bill Buckner was there signing shit. Fun day but I was the DD for the 40 minute drive so one OS was as lubed as I got that day.
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:( OS is good times, bunch of Wrigleyville dives feature that shit. SLOAN park you say? If I ever have a reason to be in AZ, clearly, I'll be there if it's March!
 
Bucketlist addition cause Peel says so, you must go to Wrigley. I guarantee you'll want to go back after 1 visit. It's that special.
 
peelpub94 said:
Bucketlist addition cause Peel says so, you must go to Wrigley. I guarantee you'll want to go back after 1 visit. It's that special.
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Yep should have been this Summer but that trip fell apart. Wrigley and Fenway...hell half my family roots are in Boston, only been once for work in January of 2001. Next time will be a full week in Summer for a game. Same with Chicago w/o the family ties. My aunt went to Northwestern so there's that I guess.

Photo at Sloan Park. I'm the point guard and I'm 5'10" lol. Guess I hang out with tall people!

Cubbie.jpg
 
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