Im really surprised how cheap seattle is tonight. I guess they have struggled as much as cardinals but unlike the cardinals I have no real concerns for seattle cause they have one the best pitching staffs in baseball. Cards are not gonna score many runs in this series!
How matz pitches vs a struggling seattle offense is anyones guess? seattle has guys that should hit lefties, they showed some signs against a pretty bad Gomber last week but they were just shut down by Lauer who was able to go 7.2 innings vs them! That worrisome as Lauer is right about a average lefty imo. The problem is I got no clue what matz is? He was pretty good last time out but he got to face a pirates squad I talk about all the time not backing them vs lhp! Before that he was shelled at coors and atl beat him up pretty good. It’s basically a coin flip how matz gonna perform but you add that to our pen who confines to look bad (their top 10 era a bit deceiving imo) it feels rather likely seattle is able to score 4-5 runs here.
Assuming 4-5 runs for seattle I think it pretty easy to get behind them -120ish, I’m not sure who moving that line cards way but I’m sure I don’t get it? Kirby is rock solid, I feel like we can pencil him in for 6+ innings and 1-2 runs allowed. I fully expect seattle pen to pitch better and better as I think they have as many nasty arms down there as most any teams. Don’t let cardinals overall numbers fool you, this team been incredibly dinconsistent, on their last home stand they were averaging less than 3 runs a game before they tacked on 3 meaningless runs Tuesday then exploded for 14 runs getting to see a washed up left hander who just got optioned to minors!! Just like cards the past 5 years on the surface you think they producing runs but it not consistent, they randomly hang a huge number vs bad pitching that covers up the fact they have long stretches where they struggle to score 3!! Contreras appears to be coming around but he tends to get hits in meaningless spots, In close games when he comes up with guys on base he hasn’t delivered.
I don’t think Marmol is doing a good job with roster construction which no surprise as I thought it was a joke they fired Shildt and replaced him with this young, arrogant, asshole!! As if his roster construction isn’t bad enough (and it is bad!) it pales in comparison to how awful he is managing the pitching staff!! Cards have a bunch of relievers who have pretty good stuff but often take a hitter or 2 to find it, yet Marmol insist on sending his starters back out a inning too long and letting them put guys on base before going to the pen, of course those inherited runners coming home cause you pen guys not coming in and getting outs! Know your team and let these guys start a inning clean, that way a walk and/or a bloop hit isn’t a disaster so they can settle down and clean up their own mess! Bringing a struggling Jack flaherty out for the 7th after getting 6 solid innings was beyond stupid, I don’t care where his pitch count was, all I know is flaherty had only gotten 4 swinging strikes the entire game, he wasn’t dominating by any stretch, you take him out after the 6th inning and tell him “good job” which should build his confidence. Instead he comes back out and surprising to nobody other than Marmol he puts on the 1st 2 guys, enter the pen to let them score! He has done this multiple times, I can’t believe I hear chatter of him being one the up and coming young managers! He is not!
All that is to say I think even if matz has a good start which is a coin flip, it is still likely Marmol will mismanage the game and seattle will score 4-5 runs. It possible they jump all over matz and gave over early but that isn’t their only path to getting the runs they need to beat cards here!
Seattle ml
Kirby ov 17.5 outs -130
I don’t like Kirby k prop although cards struck out quite a bit during last home stand it just isn’t Kirby game. He will have games were he fans 6-7-8 but for most part it will be cause he accumulated the k’s as he goes deep into the game. Imo much more value on him giving us 6 innings to cash total outs.
