Friday’s I couldn’t wait to discuss this cards/brewers series!! Discussion thread

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
1st off guys I need ya’ll to tell me bout this kid peralta, how the hell he getting these results throwing 77% 91mph fastballs? Obviously he must get some crazy late movement, hide the ball really well (funky motion?), or all the above! You just don’t see those kind of results from a fastball being thrown that often and it not even all that hard!!

That said cards havnt seem him so that instantly means we will prob struggle as that what we do against guys we havnt seen, generally w far worse numbers than this kid. Hell I could shut them down for 1st 5 innings 1st time they saw me!! Lol.

I know I said earlier how much I love to fade a team after their win streak gets snapped: but ya’ll also know I don’t fade my boy flahery, love this kid. He has the goods to be a ace and he another cards bulldog in the carpenter, waino mold. Oh and he has owned brew crew btw, granted milw lineup has grown more menacing since last facing them. To negate that tho Hudson and hicks have both had few days off. This a huge game I have absolutely no doubt this goes flaherty handing to Hudson then Hudson to hicks (unless Hudson just shuts them down for couple innings!)..

Runs gonna be tough to come by for milw. Gut says cards will have plenty of problems scoring themselves, just having hard time wrapping my head round this kid pitching for brewers. That said ump be damned I went ahead and grabbed some u8.5 as I think that number goes lower (or should anyway), this game smells like 3-2 all day every day!!!

Very interested in ya’ll who have seen peralta tell me bout him tho. (Brewers guy where ya been, this a great spot for you to share!!)...
 
Stroman vs Lynn in the Bronx, somebody getting tagged. Over please. I’ll bite on the doggie too as if stroman on his gm he keeps the ball on the ground which should be advantage jays.

Speaking of pitchers I still don’t buy, I’ll take the stros -1.5. At some point Jackson is gonna get shelled w that line drive rate!
 
Jack Flaherty 6-6, 3.22 ERA to make his 3rd appearance of the year against the Brewers. Flaherty has dominated the Brewers in the first two games, fanning 22 hitters in 12 innings.
That includes a 13-strikeout performance on June 22 at Miller Park, where Flaherty took a no-hitter into the 7th inning. Jesus Aguilar ended that by golfing a game-tying homer, then walked St. Louis off in the 9th with his 2nd homer of the game.
Freddy Peralta 5-3, 4.47 in his June starts, he struckout 17 in 13 scoreless innings against Pittsburgh and Kansas City, Peralta has been shakier lately.
His last start was his worst. Peralta took a savage beating on Aug. 10 in Atlanta, permitting 7 hits and 7 runs in 3 innings of a 10-1 loss. Peralta walked 5 and struck out 3, giving him 15 walks in his last 19 innings.
 
I like the over between Junis and Shields at first glance. Also again at Target field after the tigers had 5 relievers throw amd it took them over 180 pitches to get through the game.
 
2daBank said:
1st off guys I need ya’ll to tell me bout this kid peralta, how the hell he getting these results throwing 77% 91mph fastballs? Obviously he must get some crazy late movement, hide the ball really well (funky motion?), or all the above! You just don’t see those kind of results from a fastball being thrown that often and it not even all that hard!!

That said cards havnt seem him so that instantly means we will prob struggle as that what we do against guys we havnt seen, generally w far worse numbers than this kid. Hell I could shut them down for 1st 5 innings 1st time they saw me!! Lol.

I know I said earlier how much I love to fade a team after their win streak gets snapped: but ya’ll also know I don’t fade my boy flahery, love this kid. He has the goods to be a ace and he another cards bulldog in the carpenter, waino mold. Oh and he has owned brew crew btw, granted milw lineup has grown more menacing since last facing them. To negate that tho Hudson and hicks have both had few days off. This a huge game I have absolutely no doubt this goes flaherty handing to Hudson then Hudson to hicks (unless Hudson just shuts them down for couple innings!)..

Runs gonna be tough to come by for milw. Gut says cards will have plenty of problems scoring themselves, just having hard time wrapping my head round this kid pitching for brewers. That said ump be damned I went ahead and grabbed some u8.5 as I think that number goes lower (or should anyway), this game smells like 3-2 all day every day!!!

Very interested in ya’ll who have seen peralta tell me bout him tho. (Brewers guy where ya been, this a great spot for you to share!!)...
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Hitters have difficulty picking the ball up out of Peralta's hand, so his 4-seam fb plays up a bit more velocity-wise, especially when he's working it up in the zone at those high spin rates. He's been able to show different action on it as well (not just your typical rising action )--sometimes he cuts it away from righties and into lefties by rotating the ball and using a different 4-seam grip. It appears guys are being more patient early in the count and making him throw strikes and not chasing that ball up in the zone quite as much. Obviously he's going to have to refine his secondary stuff as he matures to have long-term success as a starter imo. I think a fair comparison deception-wise would be Mike Fiers as they both hide the ball well via that high release point, both get extension and like to work that 4-seam up to get whiffs and induce flyballs.
 
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ump in Philadelphia is a little strange. Use Nola in a parlay if you want but while he is the better pitcher with that guy?
 
Both Toronto and Milwaukee are on superior days of week. Also Colorado which should scare Atlanta since Freeland on 5 is deadly
 
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i watched peralta against the dodgers a couple of starts ago. He locates well, appears to have pretty good movement, and did mix in some decent off speed stuff. Has the look of a #3 starter to me.
 
cubsker said:
i watched peralta against the dodgers a couple of starts ago. He locates well, appears to have pretty good movement, and did mix in some decent off speed stuff. Has the look of a #3 starter to me.
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yeah his curve flashes plus when it's on... knee buckler. needs to develop the change piece to give him that third offering. will prob cut bait with him in our keeper after tonight if he struggles if you want to take a flier lol
 
Still thinking about Seattle. I want to play Seattle but 1-7 is scary
Want to remind you that umpire in Philadelphia is good for the under but home favorites are 2-6
 
Rays (62-59) @ Red Sox (86-36)
Rays are 7-11 when Stanek is the opener. He pitched Thursday in relief. Team in his starts: 7-11, 1-6 away
5-inning record: 8-8-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-18

Johnson is 3-1, 3.86 in his eight starts (over 4-4). Team in his starts: 6-2, 3-1 home.
5-inning record: 6-1-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-8

Rays won five of their last seven games; they’re 9-11 in road series openers- under is 10-3 in their last 13 games. Tampa Bay is 19-13 vs lefty starters. Boston won 11 of its last 13 games; they’re 14-4 in home series openers. Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games.

(919) TAMPA BAY @ (920) BOSTON | 08/17/2018 - 7:10 PM
Play ON BOSTON using the money line in All games against right-handed starters
The record is 69 Wins and 24 Losses this season (+33.15 units)

(919) TAMPA BAY @ (920) BOSTON | 08/17/2018 - 7:10 PM
Play ON BOSTON using the run line in All games when playing with a day off
The record is 24 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+21.25 units)
 
Rockies (65-56) @ Braves (68-52)
Freeland is 2-1, 1.78 in his last four starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12. Team in his starts: 15-9, 5-6 away
5-inning record: 10-9-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-24

Newcomb is 2-0, 2.92 in his last four starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. Team in his starts: 13-10, 4-5 home
5-inning record: 12-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-23

Rockies won five of their last six games; they’re 24-20 vs lefty starters- five of their last six games stayed under. Atlanta won eight of its last 11 games; under is 7-5 in their last 12 home games.

(909) COLORADO @ (910) ATLANTA | 08/17/2018 - 7:35 PM
Play ON COLORADO using the money line in Road games in night games
The record is 26 Wins and 15 Losses this season (+16.97 units)
 
MLB Odds (Bovada):

MIA (Straily) @ WSH (Scherzer) -380

BAL (Hess) @ CLE (Carrasco) -400

It's been nearly 14 years (September 9th, 2004) since two MLB teams closed as moneyline favorites of -350 or more on the same day.
 
While Boston had its second day off in four days, the New York Yankees were losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in the Bronx -- increasing the Red Sox's lead atop the American League East to a season-high 10 1/2 games.
The Rays, fresh off their first series win at Yankee Stadium in four years, now come to Boston, where the high-flying Red Sox sent Brian Johnson to the mound against another Rays "opener" in the first game of a seven-game homestand Friday.
The Cleveland Indians come to Fenway on Monday for a four-game series, the first of seven games between the potential playoff foes, but first it's the Rays, who come in a surprising 62-59 after winning their last two in New York.
Right-hander Ryne Stanek, who relieved in Thursday's 3-1 victory over the Yankees, will be the "opener" for the Rays on Friday night.
The Red Sox are 50 games above .500 and 11-2 in August as they have turned the division race into a rout.
They won the opener of a two-game series in Philadelphia before losing Wednesday night -- Drew Pomeranz failing in his first higher-leverage relief appearance.
Rookie manager Alex Cora addressed the team after the loss, lauding their work, especially their recent work as the record stood at 86-36. They followed a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway with a 7-2 road trip.
"We'll take 7-2 on any road trip during the season," Cora said. "We went through a tough stretch and to do what we did, I'm proud of them."
Johnson is 3-3 with a 3.95 ERA this season, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He has worked three times (one start) against the Rays, pitching to a 13.50 ERA.
"Somebody asked me about J.D. (Martinez) and Mookie (Betts) as far as MVP on our team," Cora said Tuesday. "I know they've been 1 and 2, doing what they do. But if you start looking at under-the-radar guys who have put this team in a position to be successful on a daily basis, B.J. is one of them."
The current Rays are a combined 5-for-15 (.333) without a homer against Johnson.
Stanek, who has done well in the "opener" role, had two relief appearances in as many days against the Red Sox in late May.
Adam Kolarek entered Thursday's game in New York with the bases loaded and nobody out, got Greg Bird to foul out on the first pitch and then struck out Brett Gardner and Austin Romine to finish his first major league save. It was Tampa's eighth win in its last 10 games against the Yankees.
The Red Sox lead the season series with the Rays 9-4, but nine of the games have been decided by two runs or less.
The current Red Sox hitters are 6-for-14 (.429) with no homers against Stanek.
Blake Snell notched his 14th victory and lowered his ERA to 2.10 with five scoreless innings Friday. It is the most wins by a Rays pitcher since 2013, when Matt Moore won 17.
"It means a lot, but it just means we've been playing well as a team," Snell said. "... We're playing good team baseball and I've been able to pitch on days where we're winning."
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
Hitters have difficulty picking the ball up out of Peralta's hand, so his 4-seam fb plays up a bit more velocity-wise, especially when he's working it up in the zone at those high spin rates. He's been able to show different action on it as well (not just your typical rising action )--sometimes he cuts it away from righties and into lefties by rotating the ball and using a different 4-seam grip. It appears guys are being more patient early in the count and making him throw strikes and not chasing that ball up in the zone quite as much. Obviously he's going to have to refine his secondary stuff as he matures to have long-term success as a starter imo. I think a fair comparison deception-wise would be Mike Fiers as they both hide the ball well via that high release point, both get extension and like to work that 4-seam up to get whiffs and induce flyballs.
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Awesome, thanks for taking the time for the reply buddy. I couldn’t have asked for anything more short of a video clip (lmao, joking, my lazy ass certainly capable of finding that myself!!)).,

Unless the kid is just really off I think he will be able to limit cards offense despite how well their bats actually doing. I do think cards will see his control issues and prob have a approach to take a lot of pitches and try to work him as much as possible. This strategy backfires on them often tho! Especially against a guy they havnt seen. Best case imo is they get him out by 5th getting maybe 3 runs off him, if they can manage that I think they be in very good position to win, not real convinced they can do that tho? If kid on he could strike out 10+ and leave the game after 6 innings of 1 run ball... either way I believe 3 runs could very well be the magic number for either team to get the W, imho 4 will absolutely be a winner.
 
Covers has not bothered to put up ump info and when I went to Covers help I was not able to ask for help..Ump in Atlanta is high speed no history with either starter but may try Colorado first half but he does seem to favor home teams. Houston is over priced. Lost a few hours due to a emergency with a family member. I am sure there are obvious plays but not very motivated to bet at the moment
 
The Mariners are 15-1 in LeBlanc’s last 16 home starts

Seattle is 21-7 in its last 28 home games vs. a right-handed starter

The Dodgers are 11-23 in their last 34 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter
 
Marlins are 0-11 in their last 11 games on the road (avg. losing margin: 3.91)

The Nationals are 3-0 scoring 9 or more runs in each of Scherzer’s starts against the Marlins this season.
 
Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Cards are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.

Cardinals are 4-1 in Flahertys last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Brewers are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. National League
 
Stroman lost last 5 at Yankee Stadium with 7.67 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Lance Lynn 0.54 ERA, 0.96 WHIP since joining Yanks.

Plus rain delay in KC had Jays land in NY at about 6 am ET.
 
The under has hit in five of the Rox last six games with an average combined score of 8 runs per game

That number shrinks with Kyle Freeland on the mound as the under has hit in 11 of the Rockies’ last 13 games when he has gotten the call with an average combined score of 7.23 runs per game.
 
Hamels is 2-0 in 3 starts for the Cubs with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP

Trevor Williams, since July 11th ... 4-1 with a 0.62 ERA
 
The Padre pitcher has also been fried 3 times by Arizona and Arizona will try hard to break Rays losing streak. 5 days is Rays best rest but he is really slipping. I f he starts getting hit they will be able to hit him I think. First half under and Padres first half make some sense
 
Good. Might close my eyes and play Boston today as they are playing off a loss and a team they dislike that beat the Yanks twice
 
Cards at home in JUL and AUG going over 67% last 64 games...70% in division_plus 73% public money on the under
Wily is pretty average and has delivered 6 overs of last 7, Flaherty not as good as his numbers imo and has also cashed 6 of 7 overs

863941ef-6305-4b14-8fe4-470dce5663e3.png
 
I’ll never understand this whole “public money” thing or how we really know? I know a lot of you guys follow that and I’m certainly not trying to say my thoughts on it, or way of doing things is any better, more right, or anything else. For me it just always seemed like a exercise in futility and honestly never really trusted any of those numbers they put out anyways, lol.,

for me it just works much better to cap the games how I do then play where I have discrepancies from the posted line or total.

For what it worth the odds page I look at that I believe has percentage of bets from 5d (I may be mistaken but pretty sure that what I’ve heard) shows the cards total basically 50/50, maybe it had like 52% on under or something like that.
 
2daBank said:
I’ll never understand this whole “public money” thing or how we really know? I know a lot of you guys follow that and I’m certainly not trying to say my thoughts on it, or way of doing things is any better, more right, or anything else. For me it just always seemed like a exercise in futility and honestly never really trusted any of those numbers they put out anyways, lol.,

for me it just works much better to cap the games how I do then play where I have discrepancies from the posted line or total.

For what it worth the odds page I look at that I believe has percentage of bets from 5d (I may be mistaken but pretty sure that what I’ve heard) shows the cards total basically 50/50, maybe it had like 52% on under or something like that.
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Line movement means less in baseball than any other sport, and chasing steam on the bases is a real fool's errand (not that I think you chase steam, banker - but I see guys on twitter bet into a 30c line move late and talk about about the market agreeing with them - uh, no it doesn't). All that matters to me is getting a good price relative to my model, and the potential for a push and/or plus-sign on a total. Gotta trust your own process more than a questionable, inefficient market (baseball being the least efficient market in my humble opinion).
 
Biff i am no expert at minor league stats The Toronto pitcher today. In the minors how well did he pitch in the day?
 
tuck321 said:
Biff i am no expert at minor league stats The Toronto pitcher today. In the minors how well did he pitch in the day?
Click to expand...

I have no clue, Tuck. I'm on baseball reference and fangraphs, getting nothing. Baseball reference has minor league splits, but they don't break down to day/night. I'm on Jays/Yanks over 10 (+140) for 1/2u for whatever that's worth (nothing?).
 
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