Playoffs day 2 discussion and plays

Watching to see if the 1B ump yesterday in Tampa does home plate today. If so the unders in both National League games are very much in play

Would be Bellino in MIL and Eddings in PHI

Two of the most pitcher friendly umps out there, Eddings is the creme de la creme
 
KJ said:
Watching to see if the 1B ump yesterday in Tampa does home plate today. If so the unders in both National League games are very much in play

Would be Bellino in MIL and Eddings in PHI

Two of the most pitcher friendly umps out there, Eddings is the creme de la creme
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I think milw could easily be a 1-0, 2-1 type game. I’ve always loved Freddy P but he was incredibly hard for me to figure out this year, none his pitch shapes or velo seemed off yet he was having awful starts. I see he has had some monster k games down the stretch which doesn’t surprise me at all, I have no clue what he do today, he on bunch of extra rest which makes it even harder for me to cap, but he is very much capable of out dueling Gallen.


That Mfer in Philly will have to give those pitchers 6 inches on both sides and at the ankles cause I think they both can be hit hard and Phillies playoff games in thar park tend to be wild! There no way I could play under 8, hell I already bet over. Lol. I’d be happy if Nola dominates tho!!
 
2daBank said:
I think milw could easily be a 1-0, 2-1 type game. I’ve always loved Freddy P but he was incredibly hard for me to figure out this year, none his pitch shapes or velo seemed off yet he was having awful starts. I see he has had some monster k games down the stretch which doesn’t surprise me at all, I have no clue what he do today, he on bunch of extra rest which makes it even harder for me to cap, but he is very much capable of out dueling Gallen.


That Mfer in Philly will have to give those pitchers 6 inches on both sides and at the ankles cause I think they both can be hit hard and Phillies playoff games in thar park tend to be wild! There no way I could play under 8, hell I already bet over. Lol. I’d be happy if Nola dominates tho!!
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I'll approach from a different angle, sure the pitchers will be able to stretch the zone

But neither offense is worth an over bet anyway. Just pitchers getting an expanded zone is how I'm gonna tackle. Or not tackle at all.
 
KJ said:
I'll approach from a different angle, sure the pitchers will be able to stretch the zone

But neither offense is worth an over bet anyway. Just pitchers getting an expanded zone is how I'm gonna tackle. Or not tackle at all.
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Which offenses? Phillies offense is def worthy a over bet, anytime against almost anyone in that park with that atmosphere but I think even more so getting to see another lefty on b2b days, I know they much different pitchers but I’m not sure it was a good move stacking lefties vs Philly? Their 2 stud left handed hitters don’t mind hitting lhp and I think most Philly righties are much more dangerous against lhp. I will say Garrett is def a guy that would benefit from a expanded zone, quite frankly I think he has to get low k’s and few inches off the plate for him to pitch well tonight. Guys like wheeler and Luzardo yesterday it ain’t that big a deal cause their stuff is electric, they don’t have to nibble and get guys to hit pitches out the zone.
 
It would prob be big for Freddy p to have a big zone, not for same reasons as Garrett but cause he can have command issues and getting some calls could be difference between him walking a bunch of guys and running up his pitch count or going deep into the game. Then again if we have a ump giving Gallen a few inches off the plate how doesn’t he easily pitch 6+ innings? He will most def take advantage if he sees strikes off the plate being called!!! The way his out total going I’m starting to wonder if they gonna squeeze the shit out of him???
 
KJ said:
It's a starting point
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I really stopped capping umps the last year or 2, which is crazy since it coincides w me playing pitcher props. Lol. I still have books on lot the older guys but seems like there been a influx of newer guys last few years and I just didn’t feel like going thru it anymore, especially all the bull shit how it so Fuckinh hard to find out who ump will be to start series, never understood why mlb made it a state secret practically impossible to find out which crew was going where?!?!??!? Freaking ridiculous, always pissed me off!!! I’ve just had enough, give me 17 year old holding a iPad!
 
skanless13 said:
I don’t know. Snake’s really burnt their bullpen out tonight, and if it wasn’t for Longiria’s clutch catch in the 5th, Brewcrew could easily have won it….
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Milw had to use way more their pen then they planned, and Williams threw 31 pitches while giving up 2 runs, snakes closer had a pretty easy 9th. I would say I trust Gallen to go way deeper than peralta but I have no clue what going on with his out total? I have no reason to make a bet on a side in this game, even if brew crew take this one I feel very confident snakes will be favs with Kelly vs one of milw average pitchers, losing woodruff is why I was so quick to play snakes to win series.

I really didn’t even expect snakes to beat Burnes but I was still ok playing series cause I’ll take Gallen vs almost anyone and Kelly is better than anyone milw can throw gm 3. Brewers whole way of life to have success the last 5-6 years has been the fact they had 3 starters with incredible stuff and a very good back end of pen. This year peralta and even Burnes to a extent have been inconsistent, take away woodruff and we talking a Miley, houser, or Rea vs Merril Kelly who I’ve grown to like quite a bit, especially against this lineup. It be one the most shocking things so far this year to me if snakes lose this series after taking game 1! Not just cause the pitching matchups but snakes being so young you could just feel them start to realize they not only belong but can beat this team. On the other side I don’t think milw experience was helpful at all, they know all bout playoff failure and they seemed like they pressed more and more every inning, not being able to get 1 run off that zona pen is a very bad sign! Lol.
 
MikeU said:
Bank…Thoughts on this “boost” prop…Twins win and Royce Lewis hits a HR +700?
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I mean it wort throwing a 20 at I think (or 50, whatever is smallish type play for you?). I like twins to win and love me some Lewis., The last month I been playing hitter props usually on tues and wed when wasn’t any football, lol. It started I was just doing $10 parlays with 3 guys home run prop, usually paid between 600-1200, I never hit one, had 2 guys bunch of times! Lol. Anyways the point being I learned a few things. 1st I noticed that when my guy didn’t hit a home run he quite often had over 1.5 bases (eventually I started playing h/r/rbi as much or more than total bases depending on player), 2md thing I learned, When Royce Lewis gets hot he hits them in bunches!!! Im pretty sure I saw at least 3 different occasions since Lewis came back where if he hit 1 home run he hit another and another! In like a month Time the kid had 4 different stretches where he hit a home run in b2b games. 3 straight games in one of them! Needless to say it not crazy to think he hits another!! My biggest fear is, will jays pitch to him? Twins not exactly stacked with scary hitters, i seriously think I would walk his ass!! That makes julien important, if he gets on obviously you can’t walk guy to make it 1st and 2nd, of course if julien hits a double he def getting walked! Lol. That why I like the h/r/rbi for him, if they do pitch around him I’m counting on other twins to bring him in! Def worth a small play tho.
 
2daBank said:
I mean it wort throwing a 20 at I think (or 50, whatever is smallish type play for you?). I like twins to win and love me some Lewis., The last month I been playing hitter props usually on tues and wed when wasn’t any football, lol. It started I was just doing $10 parlays with 3 guys home run prop, usually paid between 600-1200, I never hit one, had 2 guys bunch of times! Lol. Anyways the point being I learned a few things. 1st I noticed that when my guy didn’t hit a home run he quite often had over 1.5 bases (eventually I started playing h/r/rbi as much or more than total bases depending on player), 2md thing I learned, When Royce Lewis gets hot he hits them in bunches!!! Im pretty sure I saw at least 3 different occasions since Lewis came back where if he hit 1 home run he hit another and another! In like a month Time the kid had 4 different stretches where he hit a home run in b2b games. 3 straight games in one of them! Needless to say it not crazy to think he hits another!! My biggest fear is, will jays pitch to him? Twins not exactly stacked with scary hitters, i seriously think I would walk his ass!! That makes julien important, if he gets on obviously you can’t walk guy to make it 1st and 2nd, of course if julien hits a double he def getting walked! Lol. That why I like the h/r/rbi for him, if they do pitch around him I’m counting on other twins to bring him in! Def worth a small play tho.
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Thx brotha, appreciate all the feedback!!! I’ll take it for $30 haha
 
celticspatriots said:
Last 10 away…
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Im almost positive the jays was a day game in Toronto, I remember thinking “at least it not one those 11am starts like he had in pit and Philly esrlier in year where he was awful. Maybe he be ok here”! Nope, lol.

I kinda just give a pass on dodgers cause dodgers lineup can get to anyone and will never be confused with brewers lineup!!

The Mets one a little worrisome but if im right bout the day starts I assume it cause he has some “party boy” in him, speaking as a long time party boy I assume if I’m in NY for a few days i wouldn’t even know if it was a night or day game or even where I was! It be like “oh shit I’m pitching, in a hour? Fuck ok, I’m gonna need some adderal and xanex mixed, then crush me a perk 30 before I take the mound, it be cool!” lol . I can’t speak for him, just guessing based off my very unusual life experiences. It could be he just wasn’t feeling good that day!! Lol
 
pressitup said:
pizza bet, no discussion necessary

parlay'd all unders $20 to win $246
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No discussion? Man, you killing me!!! Lol.

It’s tough to get pizza for 20 bucks these days! Dominoes if you pick it up yourself, with delivery it ain’t happening! Can’t believe the world has come to me usually going to pick up my own pizzas! I’m not cheap but that fucking delivery fee that has been jacked up past few years, plus im a good tipper it just like fuck it, I can get my fat ass up and make the 5 min drive! They have a freaking pick up window now so that makes it much more tolerable!

See what happens when we can’t discuss the bet? I’ll find something!! Lmfao
 
DK has gallen down to 15.5 -125., something has to be going on, he hadn’t had a out total this low all year. Something happening and jr gotta be getting out????? Im so freaking confused. I assume this is not a very heavily bet prop so maybe there just some money hammering it but anyone doing that has to have some kinda info don’t they? I guess I should stop giving a shit but I never seen anything like this. Something has to be wrong/going on.
 
His walk total is ov 1.5 -145, he has walked 2+ In 14 of 34 starts!! He has walked 2+ In 5 his last 12 starts. That still don’t justify -145
 
2daBank said:
His walk total is ov 1.5 -145, he has walked 2+ In 14 of 34 starts!! He has walked 2+ In 5 his last 12 starts. That still don’t justify -145
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On the other hand peralta ov 1.5 walks -115 and he has walked 2+ in 19 of 32 starts I believe
 
KJ said:
If nothing else this thread will have the fix watchers scrutinizing every pitch tonight
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Not gonna lie, I try not to be in that group but if he gets ran by the 5th, has a elevated pitch count cause he not getting any corners, I’m certainly gonna be suspicious. I mean how can this be? He ain’t ever had a number this low! All a sudden some group decided to unload on him to struggle vs the brewers of all teams? I bet his number was 17.5 vs dodgers! If it not a fix then there is def some kind of info that he has food poisoning, the flu, tweaked something in practice?? This one the craziest things I ever seen, but his k total still 5.5 and the brewers line isn’t like going way up?? I have no idea. I’m done driving myself crazy bout it. I havnt even started on ncaa yet this week!! I bet it, whatever happens happens, just please don’t let it go to 14.5 and make me decide whether or not to bet my house?!?!! Lol
 
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Damn. Games started! I messed up w seager. I played over h/r/rbi but he already cashed total outs w the double
 
Shit. It can be tough to decide between total bases and h/r/rbi wjen both are 1.5. Double wins you the total bases but not the other. Thing is I’ve cashed h/r/rbi without even a hit, I’ve had guy walk twice and score both times, I’ve had guy even hit into fielders choice then score! You like to think if he hits double he should score or get rbi but not on rangers who strand every runner! Lol . That ok. Seager will get a another hit
 
Did someone just manipulate the Gallen line to play him lower? Now he back to 17.5 ev money to ovsr
 
twinkie13 said:
Yea it’s 17’ now even

Still do it y’all think?
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I seriously don't put much into any difference between 15.5 and 17.5

Hard to see him not go 6 if he goes 5 unless you're Nostradamus and can predict that he'll blow up in the 5th inning
 
KJ said:
I seriously don't put much into any difference between 15.5 and 17.5

Hard to see him not go 6 if he goes 5 unless you're Nostradamus and can predict that he'll blow up in the 5th inning
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Like bank said the 6th is where one hit they may pull ya
 
Inspekdah said:
Like bank said the 6th is where one hit they may pull ya
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And it's a different leash with Gallen, especially after yesterday

They likely let him try to get out of any shit in the 5th, 6th, 7th. Whole game is predicated on him going 7 before he hands it over.
 
Another cute play at DK anyway

Gallen to record a win is +240

If he does go 7 and Ginkel/Sewald do their job, it's a cookie cutter win if the Snakes can get a couple off Freddy. These lines aren't fun to navigate for sure.
 
Getting Bellino behind the plate in MIL and Eddings in Philly

Should be quick games, two of the best in the biz at calling strikes
 
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