FCS vs FBS and FCS vs FCS betting info

[steponaduck]

here are some spots this season that I look to fade the Non-Scholarship FCS Pioneer league against really stiff FCS competition. sometimes these lines cannot be set high enough, and I see a few here where even 42,45 or 49 will not be enough points...




Fading the Pioneer League
Aug 31
Valpo @ Youngstown State
Sept 2
Butler @ Montana
Presbyterian @ Murray St
Sept 9
Morehead St @ Mercer
Sept 15
Stetson @ Montana State
Drake @ Sou Dak State
Presbyterian @ Wofford
Oct 21
Morehead St @ Tarleton St

 

[steponaduck]

FCS + FBS WEEK 1 with MASSEY RATINGS



Thursday Aug 31st



RHODE ISL GA STATE -21.5

ELON WAKE FOREST -30.5

SF PA W MICHIGAN -27.5

MISSOURI ST KANSAS -21.5

ARK PINE BLUFF TULSA -43.5

NC A&T UAB -31.5

SOU UTAH AZ ST -32.5

Friday Sept 1

Howard E. Mich -33.5



Saturday Sept 2

Gard Webb App St -30.5

Sou Car St Charlo -28.5

Eky Cincinnati -34.5

Maine FIU -14.5

Monmouth FAU -23.5

TN Mart UGA -45.5

Citadel GaSouth -24.5

Bucknell JMU -43.5

Albany Marshall -31.5

Towson MD -37.5

Tenn St ND -44.5

LIU Post Ohio -38.5

Wofford Pitt -36.5

Colgate Syr -40.5

WCU Arkansas -35.5

No Iowa Iowa ST -27.5

ETSU Jax St -6.5

SEMO K-State -35.5 would be a large play for me if catching 35+ hoping to see +28.5 or so.

NW State ULL -38.5

Bethune Memph -43.5

SELA Miss St -34.5

So Dak Missouri -29.5

Cent Ark OKSt -34.5

Mercer OleMiss -30.5

Alcorn So Miss -30.5

SFA Troy -26.5

Ala AM Vandy -35.5

Rob Morris AF -45.5

W Ill NMSU -14.5

Incarnate UTEP -.5

NAU Zona -25.5

Port St Oregon -38.5

Idaho St San Diego ST -30.5

Bryant UNLV -27.5

massey is a good tool to use, like phil steele, sag, or other ratings. a starting point, or an idea. years ago some of the rogue books used to blindly put up these massey numbers with low limits and myself and some of the educated constituents over here used to pound those lines...

 

[steponaduck]

41 South Dakota State AA = 76.02 14 1
71 North Dakota State AA = 69.69 12 3
78 Sacramento State AA = 67.09 12 1
80 Montana State AA = 66.85 12 2
83 Incarnate Word AA = 66.41 12 2
89 UC Davis AA = 64.80 6 5
96 Montana AA = 63.86 8 5
98 Weber State AA = 63.71 10 3
106 Northern Iowa AA = 62.64 6 5
110 Furman AA = 61.40 10 3
118 Idaho AA = 59.48 7 5
119 Jacksonville State AA = 58.91 9 2
122 Samford AA = 58.74 11 2
123 Southern Illinois AA = 58.32 5 6
125 Mercer AA = 57.92 7 4
127 North Dakota AA = 57.74 7 5
131 Richmond AA = 56.46 9 4
132 William & Mary AA = 56.34 11 2
135 Holy Cross AA = 55.86 12 1
137 SE Louisiana AA = 55.68 9 4
138 Youngstown State AA = 55.53 7 4
139 Missouri State AA = 55.44 5 6
140 SE Missouri State AA = 55.34 9 3
145 Chattanooga AA = 53.73 7 4
149 Delaware AA = 52.91 8 5
151 Austin Peay AA = 52.66 7 4
152 Yale AA = 52.62 8 2
155 Princeton AA = 52.16 8 2
156 Jackson State AA = 51.72 12 1
157 Elon AA = 51.32 8 4
158 Illinois State AA = 51.07 6 5
159 Central Arkansas AA = 50.93 5 6
160 Rhode Island AA = 50.58 7 4
161 South Dakota AA = 50.54 3 8
162 Abilene Christian AA = 49.50 7 4
164 Harvard AA = 48.99 6 4
165 Gardner-Webb AA = 48.87 7 6
166 Eastern Kentucky AA = 48.79 7 5
167 Tennessee-Martin AA = 48.78 7 4
168 New Hampshire AA = 48.62 9 4
170 Sam Houston State AA = 48.38 5 4
171 Fordham AA = 48.24 9 3
172 Northern Arizona AA = 46.97 3 8
173 Saint Francis-Pa. AA = 46.63 9 3
174 Pennsylvania AA = 46.49 8 2
175 NC Central AA = 46.46 10 2
176 Western Carolina AA = 46.15 6 5
177 Stephen F. Austin AA = 45.56 6 5
178 Kennesaw State AA = 45.06 5 6
179 Southern Utah AA = 44.80 5 6
180 Eastern Washington AA = 44.51 3 8
181 Villanova AA = 44.48 6 5
182 Dartmouth AA = 44.40 3 7
183 Campbell AA = 44.03 5 6
184 NC A&T AA = 43.62 7 4
185 Tarleton State AA = 43.44 6 5
186 East Tennessee State AA = 43.18 3 8
189 Columbia AA = 42.89 6 4
190 Florida A&M AA = 42.76 9 2
191 Indiana State AA = 42.59 2 9
192 Utah Tech AA = 42.36 4 7
193 Towson AA = 42.04 6 5
194 Portland State AA = 41.85 4 7
195 Monmouth-NJ AA = 41.30 5 6
196 Wofford AA = 41.09 3 8
197 Maine AA = 40.93 2 9
198 Albany-NY AA = 40.31 3 8
199 Bryant AA = 39.91 4 7
200 Southern U. AA = 39.82 7 5
201 The Citadel AA = 39.20 4 7
202 Tennessee Tech AA = 37.85 4 7
203 St. Thomas-Mn. AA = 37.46 10 1
204 Tennessee State AA = 37.08 4 7
205 Prairie View A&M AA = 37.03 6 5
206 McNeese State AA = 36.62 4 7
207 Alcorn State AA = 36.55 5 6
208 Howard AA = 36.53 5 6
209 Charleston Southern AA = 36.53 2 8
210 Western Illinois AA = 36.37 0 11
211 Cornell AA = 35.96 5 5
212 Texas A&M-Commerce AA = 35.04 5 6
213 Cal Poly-SLO AA = 34.87 2 9
214 Duquesne AA = 34.83 4 7
215 Nicholls State AA = 34.81 3 8
216 Lindenwood AA = 34.74 7 3
217 Northern Colorado AA = 34.61 3 8
218 North Alabama AA = 34.60 1 10
219 Merrimack AA = 34.53 8 3
220 Texas Southern AA = 34.37 5 6
221 Idaho State AA = 34.28 1 10
222 Northwestern State AA = 34.22 4 7
223 Colgate AA = 33.89 3 8
224 Alabama State AA = 33.76 6 5
225 Eastern Illinois AA = 33.68 2 9
226 Brown AA = 33.58 3 7
227 Hampton AA = 33.18 4 7
228 Stony Brook AA = 32.92 2 9
229 Lafayette AA = 32.81 4 7
230 VMI AA = 31.98 1 10
231 Alabama A&M AA = 31.86 4 7
232 Murray State AA = 31.76 2 9
233 San Diego AA = 31.49 5 5
234 Sacred Heart AA = 31.43 5 6
235 Davidson AA = 30.13 8 4
236 Lehigh AA = 30.06 2 9
237 Lamar AA = 29.97 1 10
238 SC State AA = 29.73 3 8
239 Dayton AA = 29.56 8 3
240 Grambling State AA = 29.52 3 8
241 Central Connecticut AA = 28.87 2 9
242 LIU Post AA = 28.64 4 7
243 Morgan State AA = 28.34 4 7
244 Butler AA = 27.38 7 4
245 Bethune-Cookman AA = 26.36 2 9
246 Drake AA = 26.00 3 8
247 Bucknell AA = 25.84 3 8
248 Stonehill College AA = 25.78 4 5
249 Delaware State AA = 25.71 5 6
250 Georgetown AA = 25.47 2 9
251 Miss. Valley State AA = 24.38 2 9
252 Houston Christian AA = 24.06 2 9
253 Norfolk State AA = 23.37 2 9
254 Ark.-Pine Bluff AA = 23.04 3 8
255 Robert Morris AA = 21.52 0 11
256 Valparaiso AA = 21.08 5 7
257 Stetson AA = 19.75 4 6
258 Marist AA = 19.07 4 7
259 Wagner AA = 17.09 1 10
260 Morehead State AA = 16.10 2 9
261 Presbyterian College AA = 6.53 1 10


end of 2022 sag ratings for these teams. you get an idea of why I want to fade the pioneer league

 

[carolinablue]

Thanks for posting as I love the under the radar stuff and will be stalking my books on game day to jump on a few of these on week 1

 

[B.A.R.]

Terrific work here.

 

[steponaduck]

phil steele has a great FCS mag that sheds light on every FCS team...really a solid purchase for $25.00.

just need some updated FCS power ratings to be able to appropriately set lines.

i saw somewhere western michigan was only projected -6.5 against SFA...and somewhere UTEP would be +8 against Incarnate Word.

 

[s--k]

phil steele has a great FCS mag that sheds light on every FCS team...really a solid purchase for $25.00.

just need some updated FCS power ratings to be able to appropriately set lines.

i saw somewhere western michigan was only projected -6.5 against SFA...and somewhere UTEP would be +8 against Incarnate Word.

Maybe last year Incarnate Word would be road chalk at UTEP. I'm not as optimistic they will have the same kind of juice this year as mentioned in the other thread. If they get all the pieces to fit together game 1 then they could win. But I think UTEP is in better position out of the gate in this one.

The St Francis line looks like another based on last year's team - they appear to be a shell of the roster they fielded last year.

 

[KJ]

Can't wait to see how they line ISU/UNI, possibly 1/4 of ISU projected starters will be missing. Thing is Campbell has known the "who" for quite a while now, it's just now becoming public knowledge so it's possible there is overreaction. Personally as a fan I'm happy that Dekkers is gone permanently, decisions outside of throwing it up for Hutchinson were shoddy at best, especially over the middle. Complete buzzkill when they could afford it least. Koch is the highest rated recruit in school history and Becht is up there as well, should be able to field a competent QB, albeit young and inexperienced. Lots of questions on offense, kinda know what we're getting on defense. New offensive pieces and new OC that certainly can't be worse than what was there, just no clue how it all comes together so early.

Most likely take UNI getting anything more than 10, similarly will likely take ISU against Iowa although now have to monitor the Cade injury.

 

[s--k]

I think there could definitely be an overreaction KJ. Problem is that Northern Iowa looks pretty decent this year, so while I don't like being on the side of the overreaction, I think that is the right side. Even if the betting scandal never happened, I believe I would like UNI, but expectation would be for much better odds.

 

[KJ]

I think there could definitely be an overreaction KJ. Problem is that Northern Iowa looks pretty decent this year, so while I don't like being on the side of the overreaction, I think that is the right side. Even if the betting scandal never happened, I believe I would like UNI, but expectation would be for much better odds.

I seriously have no clue what to think. Everything regarding the whole thing is so much on the down low I simply have no clue how ISU comes out. I would normally bet UNI for sure and still might. No idea if ISU's offense has an identity in practice, no one is saying a damn thing.

 

[steponaduck]

Maybe last year Incarnate Word would be road chalk at UTEP. I'm not as optimistic they will have the same kind of juice this year as mentioned in the other thread. If they get all the pieces to fit together game 1 then they could win. But I think UTEP is in better position out of the gate in this one.

The St Francis line looks like another based on last year's team - they appear to be a shell of the roster they fielded last year.

Of course …based on last year. Just interesting how the projections haven’t updated and we are two weeks from the season getting started.

I think UIW will be okay but not what they once were

 

[KJ]

Of course …based on last year. Just interesting how the projections haven’t updated and we are two weeks from the season getting started.

I think UIW will be okay but not what they once were

They are literally in the same spot as last year

New coach (from within) and very good transfer portal QB. Like a mirror of last season. Whether that translates to performance on the field is anyone's guess but I don't see anything to suggest much will be different.

 

[steponaduck]

they lost an all american QB, 2 AA FCS wide receivers, 4 starters on the OL, 4 full time starters in the secondary, kicker, punter and top return man, and they have a 30 year old head coach,

hardly the same position as last year...they still might be okay in southland play, but if you and the books do not adjust your power ratings on this team substantially, you will be in for a rude awakening...they are not going to be nearly the team they were last year...and I hope the books are slow to recognize it....

 

[steponaduck]

Maybe last year Incarnate Word would be road chalk at UTEP. I'm not as optimistic they will have the same kind of juice this year as mentioned in the other thread. If they get all the pieces to fit together game 1 then they could win. But I think UTEP is in better position out of the gate in this one.

The St Francis line looks like another based on last year's team - they appear to be a shell of the roster they fielded last year.

i agree with all of this...just wondering if the BOOKS know that, because any and all projected power ratings I can find for FCS show these spreads are waaaay tighter than I anticipate they would be, including utep as home dogs (please hang that line so we can make them pay for it)!!

 

[s--k]

We discussed this some in the other thread on Incarnate Word - I don't see the detail within the situation being the same for UIW. It is the same situation, they replaced their previous two head coaches, why not do it again? Compare the resume's of Eric Morris and GJ Kinne to Killough. I don't think that is the same. And the players that they lost, it doesn't always work wholesale plug-and-play. They lost some significantly good players at positions they returned players at for 2022 off of 2021's team. That is not the case for 2023.

UTEP is UTEP, so obviously ... it's UTEP here. Still think UTEP is in better position. I am trying to cram on the FCS right now, UIW certainly deserves to be the leading pick to win that league, but there potentially could be some games that they drop. If they lose to UTEP, they could also lose to Abilene which would put them 1-2 with SLU two weeks later. The back half of the schedule looks a lot easier, this team would've preferred their easiest games first I think.

What would anyone make the UIW win total? 9.5 on an 11 game schedule? I'd go under - even if they beat UTEP, it's possible they drop 2.

 

[EL CAPO]

When does the the fcs fbs lines drop ? Day before the games ?

Looking to cap fcs a bit this year

 

[steponaduck]

When does the the fcs fbs lines drop ? Day before the games ?

Looking to cap fcs a bit this year

Most often day of

 

[carolinablue]

Most often day of

Yeah last season I think I started my stalking on Saturday mornings sometime between 8-10am eastern

 

[KJ]

Yeah last season I think I started my stalking on Saturday mornings sometime between 8-10am eastern

That's middle of the night here

 

[s--k]

If you watch 5dimes on a spread tracker site that will be your first indication. Lines that everyone can actually bet will be a few hours before the first game. So know what you want because those lines once available will change quick.

It’s been asked before, but what is the earliest/best book for FCS that people have used?

 

[carolinablue]

If you watch 5dimes on a spread tracker site that will be your first indication. Lines that everyone can actually bet will be a few hours before the first game. So know what you want because those lines once available will change quick.

It’s been asked before, but what is the earliest/best book for FCS that people have used?

I think BM actually was ahead of BOL last season in terms of FCS but someone definitely correct me if I’m wrong

 

[steponaduck]

updated SP+ numbers make for some very interesting projected spreads for FCS/FBS. this information can be found on twitter for bill connelly, he posted his updated SP+ power ratings composite for FCS and FBS together, and you can do the math and add 3 points for HFA to come up with a fair spread. once the lines are posted day of the game you need to be ready to fire away and bet into certain numbers if there is a side you like. some of these lines can be off by as many as 14 points compared to trusted Power Rating numbers.

 

[steponaduck]

guys,

if anyone is interested I compiled some power ratings and composite averages for the games involving FCS and FBS foes in week 1. I could only find about 3 solid power ratings that have both FBS and FCS to compare, and the dichotomy between some of the numbers is staggaring.

I plan to update this once the vegas lines are released, and plan to move quickly to bet into these numbers and gain some perceived line value. Spreadsheet is attached

 

[s--k]

Thanks for sharing this. I’d like to look it over

 

[s--k]

I don't know what the right number is, but I will be surprised to see FIU favored by less than 10 over Maine. Maine appears in rough shape. I know FIU barely beat Bryant last year, but Bryant ended up being not all that bad with some redeeming qualities. FIU will have game under their belt with year two of their coaches vs a very inexperienced and poor looking Maine team.

Lots of those Massey numbers look really high, I'd like to get those numbers on a few FCS teams.

SP+ has IUW -10 and Action Network -9.5? Wow.

SP+ and Action have Western Mich -3 and 6.5? Wow again. Not a good team for WM and St Francis was good last year, maybe atleast good on O this year, but man, those are low numbers.

 

[steponaduck]

I don't know what the right number is, but I will be surprised to see FIU favored by less than 10 over Maine. Maine appears in rough shape. I know FIU barely beat Bryant last year, but Bryant ended up being not all that bad with some redeeming qualities. FIU will have game under their belt with year two of their coaches vs a very inexperienced and poor looking Maine team.

Lots of those Massey numbers look really high, I'd like to get those numbers on a few FCS teams.

SP+ has IUW -10 and Action Network -9.5? Wow.

SP+ and Action have Western Mich -3 and 6.5? Wow again. Not a good team for WM and St Francis was good last year, maybe atleast good on O this year, but man, those are low numbers.

right. i was thinking the same thing. some huge discrepancies to bet into when those lines get posted next thursday-saturday. just have to research the teams and be ready to fire away against those numbers.

 

[s--k]

I was busy all day yesterday and just was able to check now. Bet Rivers posted the three FCS lines for today (side total and ML). BOL, BM and Bovada have not as of early Saturday morning.

Also Maddux and Bookmekers review, two spread tracking sites have not shown any yet.

So win for Bet Rivers.

We need to have a weekly FCS thread, I can either start one next week or you can

 

[steponaduck]

Woah. No one else has lines. What do you show the spreaDs at

 

[carolinablue]

Unfortunately we can't get BR here and I will be keeping an eye out at BOL, BM and Heritage so will post em when I see em

 

[s--k]

 

[s--k]

Fordham was 4.5, now 3.5

Jackson St was 17.5, now 14.5

 

[steponaduck]

Have to take South Carolina state don’t you?

 

[carolinablue]

At those lines, I would take SC State for sure....Not a huge fan of unders, but would lean Mercer game under in that first one as I think the spread is pretty spot on as I figured it would be 21...No read on the middle one...

 

[s--k]

I have Mercer and Albany. Albany ML and Under for a little. I should’ve played SC State but did not

 

[sleepy]

FanDuel just put up the 3 FCS games

Mercer -20.5 / 62.5
Fordham -2.5 / 66.5
Jackson St. -14.5 / 47.5

 

[s--k]

Albany moved to favored at Mybookie

 

[s--k]

These lines tell me we can expect similar numbers for week 1 to 2022 Massey and Sagarin PR. I scribbled these out on a scrap piece of paper last week so I don’t know who’s was who’s, it is the range that I want to show:

Mercer -20-25
Fordham-6 to Albany-1.5
Jackson St -22-13.5

 

[steponaduck]

Yep. Have to move quickly on this. Dive in and find nuggets. The game to watch for Thursday is WMU + sf pa

 

[s--k]

Yep. Have to move quickly on this. Dive in and find nuggets. The game to watch for Thursday is WMU + sf pa

I can’t believe or trust the SP or Action line from the chart. I did the Massey and Sagarin PR to be 16 / 22.5. I say it opens in that range.

 

[s--k]

Looks like around 11;30 eastern a lot of others posted the adjusted lines - bm, bol, dk.

 

[carolinablue]

BM has SCSU at +10, Albany at -2.5 and Mercer at 20.5

 

[steponaduck]

Was able to get down a tiny fun parlay in FCS
.15 to win .87 u

1. Albany -1

2. Mercer -19.5

3. South Carolina state +10.5

 

[carolinablue]

Great info in this thread to help prepare for the huge card next weekend, thanks!

 

[steponaduck]

Was able to get down a tiny fun parlay in FCS



.15 to win .87 u

1. Albany -1

2. Mercer -19.5

3. South Carolina state +10.5

 

[satnightfever05]

Albany up to -4.5 now. Crazy

 

[s--k]

I don’t see any common book offering 1H numbers. Bookmakers review shows Mybookie has them says Mercer-11 1H but I can’t find that anywhere among their 136 props. Somebody named nitrobetting has 1H FCS. My local says he no longer wants to do FCS. Bovada has live 1H betting but didn’t see their pregame 1H. BetRivers and DK have live FCS betting full game only

 

[s--k]

Mercer thinks they are a playoff team? Right now I don't see that team beating the better SoCon teams. The OL allowed North Alabama to control the LOS all game. Came away impressed with how North Alabama competes on defense under this coaching staff. I would think that Peevy will be ok at QB with his prior experience, but this was not an inspiring game 1 performance.

Mercer vs Furman in 4 weeks.

North Alabama gets Chattanooga, not sure what the Mocs have at QB

Very impressed with Albany. Poffenbarger made some nice throws and was elusive, I can see why he was CAA newcomer last year. They have some pieces on offense. DE Anton Juncaj was a wrecking crew. Fordham flipped their RT to LT and it went poorly for them. Their OL was supposed to still be good, but it wasn't. Montes has bad pocket awareness and lacks accuracy. Huge obvious downgrade at QB for Fordham from last year that can't be overstated, if they are going to try and run last season's offense with this QB they are in for a long year. Other Patriot League teams are going to challenge them. But Albany was good everywhere in this game. Their game vs Hawaii might be interesting. The schedule doesn't set up well for them with all the travel. Heard Morgan St is on the up then Villanova. As long as they don't get beat up by Marshall and Hawaii and tire from the travel they definitely have some winnable games before they travel to UNH.

I did not pay attention to Jackson St and South Car State, but obviously either S Car St is really bad or Jackson St is going to be ok with all their new pieces - or both. I don't see myself following too much SWAC and MEAC.

So the line moves, the Mercer - North Alabama line did not move much if at all, 1 pt maybe 1.5, the total dropped about 4 pts from the Bet Rivers early morning number. Big move in the Fordham - Alabany game from -4.5 to +4.5 and big 7 pt move on that total too. Massive move in the Jackson State line which proved to be very inaccurate.

 

[steponaduck]

SAN DIEGO UNIV. vs Cal Poly...could be a great spot to back the stangs here...USD just had half of their team suspended "in some capacity" for hazing violations. no further details at this time...but they are already a D-1aa Non-Scholarship FCS participant, and with this many people out...bad news..

 

[s--k]

SAN DIEGO UNIV. vs Cal Poly...could be a great spot to back the stangs here...USD just had half of their team suspended "in some capacity" for hazing violations. no further details at this time...but they are already a D-1aa Non-Scholarship FCS participant, and with this many people out...bad news..

Good to know! Last year same spot same teams Cal Poly was -7.5 and won by 1 but outgained them by over 100y. 2022 PR says the line would be somewhere between 5 and 10.5 so we'll see what the books put up.

Think we will know who the players involved are before Saturday ... or the line might not come out til Saturday anyway.

 

[jimmymo]

Good to know! Last year same spot same teams Cal Poly was -7.5 and won by 1 but outgained them by over 100y. 2022 PR says the line would be somewhere between 5 and 10.5 so we'll see what the books put up.

Think we will know who the players involved are before Saturday ... or the line might not come out til Saturday anyway.

FYI -- former 5* UW recruit Sam Huard announced as starting QB for Cal Poly.......gonna be interesting to see for sure