FCS vs FBS 2023 games

[spottie2935]

It's tough to tell imo about these mammoth spreads because the game likely plays a lot differently with the moving clock. Less plays means less likely to get that final garbage time score you need to cover. Curious how it plays out and no better time than week 1 to get these kinds of spreads to see

youre thoughts make sense to a degree but big spread dog are like penny stocks. no talent, no fundamentals, poor history of ROI. I am not a chalk guy but well will see how these playout. Each year its it own thing. I have no confidence in these plays.

 

[carolinablue]

every one of these games will have lines. and yes, they will be posted "day of". bookmaker is good about getting them out the day of the game in the early morning (after 9am Central), you just have to prepare before hand and pounce on the good numbers...thursday, friday in week 1 is no different. they will be lined under "extra games" within the college football section of your menu.

all my offshore books and local casino options all have lines for these, and they can be WEAK AF if you know what you are looking for...

Thanks for the heads up, as I will just need to camp out in the garage gym between about 10-1130am eastern so I can jump on these without distraction haha.

 

[steponaduck]

Thanks for the heads up, as I will just need to camp out in the garage gym between about 10-1130am eastern so I can jump on these without distraction haha.

dude I love the garage gym. Converted my 3rd stall and invested $15,000 in set up, equipment, flooring, mirrors, etc. 2 years ago. will never go back.

 

[twinkie13]

Not sure is South Florida vs FAMU was on anyone’s radar but

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682616050012020736

 

[steponaduck]

digital phil steele FCS MAG was released yesterday on his website. they are still working on the FCS mag, only about half done, but it is available to their VIP group and also available for purchase.

 

[s--k]

- N.Iowa I think still has their good QB Theo Day .. Iowa State should be fine but I think N.Iowa has been a tough customer in these historically ..

No Iowa Iowa ST -27.5

UNI if getting more than 24.5

The QB situation for ISU is going to impact the spread. Even then with a lower number, UNI might still be a decent pick. They have only lost by a combined 9 pts in their last two trips to Ames (2021 and 2019) covering as 32.5 and 23 pt dogs.

 

[s--k]

The QB situation for ISU is going to impact the spread. Even then with a lower number, UNI might still be a decent pick. They have only lost by a combined 9 pts in their last two trips to Ames (2021 and 2019) covering as 32.5 and 23 pt dogs.

If I am reading the right rankings from last year's PR it appears that Sagarin has UNI at a 62.64 rating and ISU 75.98 + 1.88 HF making the Clones a 15.22 fav. The massey numbers, again if I am looking right, has UNI at 46.69 and ISU 67.29 + 2.17 HF making them a 22.77 favorite.

And those were based off of last year. Maybe Iowa State could be better this year record wise just because they lost 6 of their 8 games by one score last year (generally they've had 4 or less such losses each year). However, they did lose arguably their 3 best players from the DL/LB unit, plus the QB and will the gambling scandal hang over the team? The D still figures to lead the way and they went Under in 8 of 12 games last year.

Northern Iowa should be better team this year. Phil Steele picks them tied-3rd in their conference and a possble playoff team. We remember Theo Day from Michigan State, but he has turned into a fairly good FCS QB and enters his 3rd year starting. It looks like a competent receiving unit with some new RBs factoring in. OL looks very young with only 3 upper classmen on the roster (their previous OL coach from 2000-2015 returns this year). LB looks like it could be concern on what otherwise should be an improved D - D was a problem for UNI last year. After allowing an average of 17 ppg over the previous 3 years, last year they gave up nearly 26. Bringing in a DC from Kent State might not sound like reason for optimism, however, he was UNI's former DC and a defensive coach for the Panthers since 2007. His last unit as DC in 2021 was #5 in the FCS in scoring D.

We need to expect a number less than mid to upper 20s and probably anything over 2 TDs would be worth to consider UNI here and a possible Under.

 

[M.W.]

The QB situation for ISU is going to impact the spread. Even then with a lower number, UNI might still be a decent pick. They have only lost by a combined 9 pts in their last two trips to Ames (2021 and 2019) covering as 32.5 and 23 pt dogs.

Iowa State has tended to cover against UNI when coming off a disappointing season in the past. When ISU has less to prove, UNI sneaks up on them.

 

[Marsski]

I would look for Ohio State to call off the dogs vs Youngstown State in week 2 as YSU coach was on Tressels staff back in the day. Hoping they smoke Indiana so we’re getting a billion. S--K should have a valley breakdown for us I’m sure…

 

[LeCarb]

If I am reading the right rankings from last year's PR it appears that Sagarin has UNI at a 62.64 rating and ISU 75.98 + 1.88 HF making the Clones a 15.22 fav. The massey numbers, again if I am looking right, has UNI at 46.69 and ISU 67.29 + 2.17 HF making them a 22.77 favorite.

And those were based off of last year. Maybe Iowa State could be better this year record wise just because they lost 6 of their 8 games by one score last year (generally they've had 4 or less such losses each year). However, they did lose arguably their 3 best players from the DL/LB unit, plus the QB and will the gambling scandal hang over the team? The D still figures to lead the way and they went Under in 8 of 12 games last year.

Northern Iowa should be better team this year. Phil Steele picks them tied-3rd in their conference and a possble playoff team. We remember Theo Day from Michigan State, but he has turned into a fairly good FCS QB and enters his 3rd year starting. It looks like a competent receiving unit with some new RBs factoring in. OL looks very young with only 3 upper classmen on the roster (their previous OL coach from 2000-2015 returns this year). LB looks like it could be concern on what otherwise should be an improved D - D was a problem for UNI last year. After allowing an average of 17 ppg over the previous 3 years, last year they gave up nearly 26. Bringing in a DC from Kent State might not sound like reason for optimism, however, he was UNI's former DC and a defensive coach for the Panthers since 2007. His last unit as DC in 2021 was #5 in the FCS in scoring D.

We need to expect a number less than mid to upper 20s and probably anything over 2 TDs would be worth to consider UNI here and a possible Under.

Sure, Northern Iowa would be cooler than Northern Ireland. But you can also find interesting places like this in Ireland - website - there are lots of interesting things to play after watching your favorite football games.

You correctly pointed out that they lost their three best players. So there is no reason to hope for improvement in their play. Unless they pull off a miracle and make 1 more win than last season.

 

[s--k]

I would look for Ohio State to call off the dogs vs Youngstown State in week 2 as YSU coach was on Tressels staff back in the day. Hoping they smoke Indiana so we’re getting a billion. S--K should have a valley breakdown for us I’m sure…

I will be able to pass along some good second hand opinion on YSU at some point soon. Unfortunately I do not have any of my own, other than reading what we could all read. I don't have any interest in betting or watching Ohio State.

On the taking it easy type angle, I've used it, I've thought about it in prior games. The last time Ohio State played YSU Tressel was the HC and he previously coached YSU so they clearly did not run it up, but still won comfortably (by 32 and 43 in a shutout). Tressel has retired from his position of President now, but I would certainly still think that the Ohio State staff does not want to run it up purposefully.

We thought about this angle when Alabama played Kent State (Saban;s alma mater) in 2016. It was 48-0 Final on a 43 pt spread. It was 41-0 HT. I'm sure there are quite a few other examples out there that I am not remembering. Ohio State will not look to put up a big number I would not think vs YSU. Sometimes, it just happens and once it does, really, what is a team like YSU's motivation to really fight back much in the 2H? All they are looking to do at that point is get out healthy, play some of their second and third teamers and look towards a game they can compete and win in rather than proving their backups can score on Ohio State's backups when they are already down 40 or so points. So it is kind of tough to expect a lot out of YSU as well in that scenario. I'll see what the local vibe is saying on their team and report back.

Edit, just remembered, YSU played Kentucky last year. Stoops is from Youngstown. 31-0. I bet YSU and lost by .5 or a point it must've been. So be it UK vs YSU or Bama vs Kent, the favorite covered but they were close. Pitt had a game vs YSU, Narduzzi's Dad coached there and he himself played there one year. That game was 2017 and I don't think Pitt was in any position to take it easy on anyone, they were 5-7 that year. YSU only finished 6-5. Pitt escaped that one in OT.

 

[s--k]

You correctly pointed out that they lost their three best players. So there is no reason to hope for improvement in their play. Unless they pull off a miracle and make 1 more win than last season.

Yes, I do believe this Northern Iowa game could very well be a good one, competitive. Upset, maybe?

We will have to see who replaces those now departed players, that is always the fun thing about college football. ISU's back end on D is in better shape of proven production than their DL and LB.

Deckers didn't have much experience coming into last year either. He had more than whomever is going to play for them this year though.

Think ISU is in a tough spot. Maybe they get some more breaks this year (the losing 6 games by one score thing), but if they were a better team last year it is hard to logically assume they will play better in those spots to earn the wins this year, just kind of an averaging out over time thing I suppose I meant.

It's cool that the instate Iowa schools do play as often as they do. No doubt everyone involved cares about it. Maybe MW has thing about them having something to prove when they face them vs being more complacent with bigger fish to fry? I don't know.

Interesting at only 6-5 in Sagarin's closing 2022 PR UNI had the third best PR rating in the MVFC, only 7 pts behind NDSU and 5-11.5 points on the PR ahead of 3 other MVFC teams that finished with winning records. Edit, just noticed that UNI was actually 9th highest Sagarin PR of all FCS/IAA teams at the end of 2022. How they get their OL and LBs to play will determine a lot. Otherwise, they appear in good shape and upgraded their coaching staff with the couple coaches returning. Theo Day at this point is 2nd or 3rd best QB in the MVFC? Hard to put him ahead of Gronowski, but Day is good.

 

[Marsski]

I will be able to pass along some good second hand opinion on YSU at some point soon. Unfortunately I do not have any of my own, other than reading what we could all read. I don't have any interest in betting or watching Ohio State.

On the taking it easy type angle, I've used it, I've thought about it in prior games. The last time Ohio State played YSU Tressel was the HC and he previously coached YSU so they clearly did not run it up, but still won comfortably (by 32 and 43 in a shutout). Tressel has retired from his position of President now, but I would certainly still think that the Ohio State staff does not want to run it up purposefully.

We thought about this angle when Alabama played Kent State (Saban;s alma mater) in 2016. It was 48-0 Final on a 43 pt spread. It was 41-0 HT. I'm sure there are quite a few other examples out there that I am not remembering. Ohio State will not look to put up a big number I would not think vs YSU. Sometimes, it just happens and once it does, really, what is a team like YSU's motivation to really fight back much in the 2H? All they are looking to do at that point is get out healthy, play some of their second and third teamers and look towards a game they can compete and win in rather than proving their backups can score on Ohio State's backups when they are already down 40 or so points. So it is kind of tough to expect a lot out of YSU as well in that scenario. I'll see what the local vibe is saying on their team and report back.

Edit, just remembered, YSU played Kentucky last year. Stoops is from Youngstown. 31-0. I bet YSU and lost by .5 or a point it must've been. So be it UK vs YSU or Bama vs Kent, the favorite covered but they were close. Pitt had a game vs YSU, Narduzzi's Dad coached there and he himself played there one year. That game was 2017 and I don't think Pitt was in any position to take it easy on anyone, they were 5-7 that year. YSU only finished 6-5. Pitt escaped that one in OT.

Maybe it sets up for a second half YSU or under bet ?? Rumors in Columbus that Tressel will be asked to dot the i for that game...nothing official though...

 

[LeCarb]

Yes, I do believe this Northern Iowa game could very well be a good one, competitive. Upset, maybe?

We will have to see who replaces those now departed players, that is always the fun thing about college football. ISU's back end on D is in better shape of proven production than their DL and LB.

Deckers didn't have much experience coming into last year either. He had more than whomever is going to play for them this year though.

Think ISU is in a tough spot. Maybe they get some more breaks this year (the losing 6 games by one score thing), but if they were a better team last year it is hard to logically assume they will play better in those spots to earn the wins this year, just kind of an averaging out over time thing I suppose I meant.

It's cool that the instate Iowa schools do play as often as they do. No doubt everyone involved cares about it. Maybe MW has thing about them having something to prove when they face them vs being more complacent with bigger fish to fry? I don't know.

Interesting at only 6-5 in Sagarin's closing 2022 PR UNI had the third best PR rating in the MVFC, only 7 pts behind NDSU and 5-11.5 points on the PR ahead of 3 other MVFC teams that finished with winning records. Edit, just noticed that UNI was actually 9th highest Sagarin PR of all FCS/IAA teams at the end of 2022. How they get their OL and LBs to play will determine a lot. Otherwise, they appear in good shape and upgraded their coaching staff with the couple coaches returning. Theo Day at this point is 2nd or 3rd best QB in the MVFC? Hard to put him ahead of Gronowski, but Day is good.

They'll probably try to do the best they can. And it'll even be interesting to watch.

 

[s--k]

I'm starting to think they will not post a line for UNI-ISU and if they do it is going to be pretty low.

 

[s--k]

I would look for Ohio State to call off the dogs vs Youngstown State in week 2 as YSU coach was on Tressels staff back in the day. Hoping they smoke Indiana so we’re getting a billion. S--K should have a valley breakdown for us I’m sure…

Getting back to you on YSU. People are pretty optimistic. They finished over .500 in MVFC for the first time since 2016. They feel they have gotten to the point on both sides of the line of scrimmage to compete with any team in the league - much different than when current coach Phillips arrived. After an encouraging start under Pelini, his teams got worse and Phillips taking over with the roster that was left plus during covid put them behind the 8 ball. So they like what they have at OL and DL. D was really good for them last year and it should be equal or better this year.

I have some concern that they were involved in some closer than expected games last year vs some of the bottom type teams in the league (only beat Indiana State by 6 at home and allowed Ind St by far their highest point total on the year). Games like North Dakota (who they lost to at home) and Ill State (lost by 3 on the road) make me wonder how much better they were vs the rest of the middle of the league. To their credit, they trailed some games in the 4th Q and did pull it out (W ILL, ILL St amd SIU). Southern Illinois, North Dakota, Illinois State and YSU - throw a blanket over them.

They were the #2 rushing offense in the MVFC last year. I doubt they will be this year, the OL is capable, but they lost the NCAA's all time leading rusher who might be playing for Denver this year. Last year's #2 was a local product and there is a committee feel to this year's group. Everyone is high on Davidson at QB, he is a local kid too and he was good last year, but now it's more his game, more up to him. So can he shoulder that and deliever? He only attempted 16 passes per game last year and some of their peers mentioned before arguably have better QBs (like Schuster at ND and Baker at SIU). All the WRs and TEs who contributed last year are back with two former FBS guys (Oliver UK and Fordham EMich) plus Mike Tomczak's kid to form the top 3 guys (combined to catch 88).

Former NFL kicker Paul McFadden's son has graduated and all the kickers and punters will be new this year. McFadden had a pretty good leg - he kicked the game winner in a closer than it should've been game vs W ILL and also got a 52y FG. So it's underrated, but in a tough league with a bunch of similar teams, you lose a good kicker, that could matter.

Looks a lot like last year's team really, just multiple RBs instead of 1 bell-cow. They could finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th in the league. I put Northern Iowa second in the league. YSU has not won in Cedar Falls since 1999 despite playing there almost every other year.

The biggest thing in the league will be can North Dakota State get back to their old selves. Sure they were in the National Championship game last year, but anyone who watched their games knows this team was not up to their standards - and they lost a lot off last year's team, noteably in the defensive backfield. Everyone is picking them second in the league and still preseason ranking them high based off of past performance and respect, but I don't think it is impossible for them to fall back even more in the league this year. Their game vs Central Arkansas should tell us. The week 1 game vs Eastern Washington could be interesting, but nobody knows what EW is going to bring this year. On that game, it is being played at Minn Viking stadium. Bison fans had huge expectations on ticket sales, instead they might sell half of that, maybe like 15,000-20,000 tickets. Some of the fans aren't high on the direction. Call them spoiled I guess. Pretty big year for NDSU to get back to what they were, if they can.

On a YSU note, this will be the first year ever in the MVFC that YSU won't play the Bison. Too bad. They played them tough last year and if they were to get them in Youngstown this year, the way things are looking, YSU could beat them.

How any of this relates to YSU at Ohio State, I really have no idea. I would be surprised if YSU scored many points vs them ... between 7-13? Ohio State could try and keep things wrapped up, but sometimes things just happen and it spirals into a big blowout whether the coaches really want it that way or not.

 

[Marsski]

Getting back to you on YSU. People are pretty optimistic. They finished over .500 in MVFC for the first time since 2016. They feel they have gotten to the point on both sides of the line of scrimmage to compete with any team in the league - much different than when current coach Phillips arrived. After an encouraging start under Pelini, his teams got worse and Phillips taking over with the roster that was left plus during covid put them behind the 8 ball. So they like what they have at OL and DL. D was really good for them last year and it should be equal or better this year.

I have some concern that they were involved in some closer than expected games last year vs some of the bottom type teams in the league (only beat Indiana State by 6 at home and allowed Ind St by far their highest point total on the year). Games like North Dakota (who they lost to at home) and Ill State (lost by 3 on the road) make me wonder how much better they were vs the rest of the middle of the league. To their credit, they trailed some games in the 4th Q and did pull it out (W ILL, ILL St amd SIU). Southern Illinois, North Dakota, Illinois State and YSU - throw a blanket over them.

They were the #2 rushing offense in the MVFC last year. I doubt they will be this year, the OL is capable, but they lost the NCAA's all time leading rusher who might be playing for Denver this year. Last year's #2 was a local product and there is a committee feel to this year's group. Everyone is high on Davidson at QB, he is a local kid too and he was good last year, but now it's more his game, more up to him. So can he shoulder that and deliever? He only attempted 16 passes per game last year and some of their peers mentioned before arguably have better QBs (like Schuster at ND and Baker at SIU). All the WRs and TEs who contributed last year are back with two former FBS guys (Oliver UK and Fordham EMich) plus Mike Tomczak's kid to form the top 3 guys (combined to catch 88).

Former NFL kicker Paul McFadden's son has graduated and all the kickers and punters will be new this year. McFadden had a pretty good leg - he kicked the game winner in a closer than it should've been game vs W ILL and also got a 52y FG. So it's underrated, but in a tough league with a bunch of similar teams, you lose a good kicker, that could matter.

Looks a lot like last year's team really, just multiple RBs instead of 1 bell-cow. They could finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th in the league. I put Northern Iowa second in the league. YSU has not won in Cedar Falls since 1999 despite playing there almost every other year.

The biggest thing in the league will be can North Dakota State get back to their old selves. Sure they were in the National Championship game last year, but anyone who watched their games knows this team was not up to their standards - and they lost a lot off last year's team, noteably in the defensive backfield. Everyone is picking them second in the league and still preseason ranking them high based off of past performance and respect, but I don't think it is impossible for them to fall back even more in the league this year. Their game vs Central Arkansas should tell us. The week 1 game vs Eastern Washington could be interesting, but nobody knows what EW is going to bring this year. On that game, it is being played at Minn Viking stadium. Bison fans had huge expectations on ticket sales, instead they might sell half of that, maybe like 15,000-20,000 tickets. Some of the fans aren't high on the direction. Call them spoiled I guess. Pretty big year for NDSU to get back to what they were, if they can.

On a YSU note, this will be the first year ever in the MVFC that YSU won't play the Bison. Too bad. They played them tough last year and if they were to get them in Youngstown this year, the way things are looking, YSU could beat them.

How any of this relates to YSU at Ohio State, I really have no idea. I would be surprised if YSU scored many points vs them ... between 7-13? Ohio State could try and keep things wrapped up, but sometimes things just happen and it spirals into a big blowout whether the coaches really want it that way or not.

Thorough as always, and even a Mike Tomczak reference! I could see 10 out of YSU, which would mean OSU would need into the mid 50s to cover (assuming OSU -42ish) .....I might take that depending on how the QB room is looking....I would think OSU rotates heavily on D in the second half which allow YSU to have more success after probably getting stuffed in the 1H.