European basketball season 2015/2016

All right, Orleans +8.5 was bad read, Pau +1 was much better play (how did I missed it?)but overall not a bad day - 4-1 with three of my underdogs winning outright. Lyon -2.5 was a sucker line from the very beginning and the public took it. There were 28 made 3s in Bnei/Haifa game. Dijon failed to cover as big fave after crushing Limoges and Strasbourg in their previous 2 games. Strasbourg somehow rebounded from their miserable outings. Very interesting things are happening right now in euro bb and there is a lot of opportunities to make money in the final two months of the season. Too bad the season will end soon. I'm going to crush my bookie tomorrow with ACB and LegaA picks. Stay tuned.

Bnei +5 - W
Varese +6 - W
Monaco +2.5 - W
Orleans +8.5 - L
Chalon -9.5 - W

April 16th: 4-1 (+2.82u)

Season: 342-293-13 (+27.34u)
 
utfootball4 said:
who you have winning the Banvit Bandirma gm
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Sorry I was away in the afternoon. I got Yesil by 2 points - too little to make it an official play. Banvit before the game with Yesil was just 4-8 ATS on the road in Turkish league (4-9 ATS now). Banvit not worth backing imo. Yesil struggled recently (3 losses in a row). So it was a no play for me.
 
Juvecaserta's F Gaddefors and C Metreveli are injured and their season is over. This leaves Juvecaserta rotation trimmed to 8 players. Avellino shouldn't have any problems covering. Gipuzkoa's F Txemi Urtasun is injured and will be replaced by G Dean who is returning to San Sebastian. Urtasun is Gipuzkoa top scorer and leader, Valencia can cover as dd road fave. Here's my Sunday card. Tough task ahead of Trento and Torino but they could get the job done.

ACB: Sevilla +7.5 (1.93) B
ACB: Gran Canaria -3.5 (1.93) A
ACB: Andorra +9 (1.95) B
LegaA: Avellino -3.5 (1.91) A
LegaA: Trento -2.5 (1.95) A
LegaA: Torino -2 (1.91) B
BBL: Bremerhaven/Wurzburg o162 (1.96) C

The concept of 'road trip' will be introduced in Euroleague from the next season.
 
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Sevilla +7.5 - L
Gran Canaria -3.5 - W
Andorra +9 - L
Avellino -3.5 - W
Trento -2.5 - L
Torino -2 - W
Bremerhaven/Wurzburg o162 - L

April 17th: 3-4 (-1.25u)

Season: 345-297-13 (+26.09u)
 
ProA: Pau +7.5 (1.93)

Look ahead alert: Strasbourg playing its final domestic league game before Fridays Eurocup Final against Galatasaray. Galatasaray in similar situation lost to Buyukcekmece on Sunday (89:94) as 7.5-point road fave. Strasbourg is in not the optimal form (bad losses to Le Mans and Dijon) and on very short 1-day rest. Pau is 12-2 ATS as road underdog in ProA. The result of this game could have big impact on the standings - home team (20-9) is 3rd, while Pau (19-10) is right behind Strasbourg. This should be a close one. Pau-Orthez +7.5 (A).

Euroleague: Crvena Zvezda +5.5 (1.94)

Previously ill F Gudurovic will be available for Crvena. CSKA will have problems covering as road fave in the most hostile basketball arena in Europe. Crvena Zvezda +5.5 (A).
 
I don't fully understand why bettors prefer Paris-Levallois over Chalon (line moved from -9.5 to -7.5) and Antibes over Monaco (line moved from -9.5 to -8). Chalon and Monaco are crushing oppponents at home - Chalon with its GSW like offense and Monaco with tough to crack, big and physical frontcourt. Yes, Paris is playing very well now and Antibes is able to cover in certain situations but at the end of the day Chalon (12-3 ATS at home) and Monaco (11-3 ATS at home) are the main candidates to championschip beside Strasbourg.

ProA: Chalon -7.5 (1.95) A
ProA: Cholet +10.5 (1.99) C
ProA: Chalons +4.5 (1.95) B
ProA: Monaco -8 (1.90) A
TBL: Zielona Góra -8 (1.91) A

No Euroleague today - leaning towards home teams and over in Madrid. Panathinaikos line has no value at -7 but Laboral will be without F Hanga and G Causeur.
 
utfootball4 said:
BK Orli Prostejov doggy
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Czech league is cool but I'm already following too many leagues in Europe. I have trouble finding time to handicap Euroleague not to speak of small leagues like Mattoni.

I already made a decision to cut off some of the smaller leagues in next season. I won't be handicapping Belgium, Lithuanian, Polish and Baltic League. 56 teams Basketball Champions League will be huge and 30-game season for each Euroleague team will be a big task for every handicapper.
 
Chalon -7.5 - W
Cholet +10.5 - W
Chalons +4.5 - W
Monaco -8 - L
Zielona Góra -8 - W

April 19th: 4-1 (+2.8u)

Season: 348-299-13 (+28.82u)
 
No picks on Wed. Regular season is coming to an end and there are some meaningless games today (Greece, Poland, VTB League). Leaning Le Mans +2.5 which may be difficult to hit as Dijon is playing staunch defense recently and an under 170 in Volgograd/Kazan final game of the regular season.
 
moneyprinter said:
Czech league is cool but I'm already following too many leagues in Europe. I have trouble finding time to handicap Euroleague not to speak of small leagues like Mattoni.

I already made a decision to cut off some of the smaller leagues in next season. I won't be handicapping Belgium, Lithuanian, Polish and Baltic League. 56 teams Basketball Champions League will be huge and 30-game season for each Euroleague team will be a big task for every handicapper.
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They won SU. Today BK Decin this line is slightly off.
 
Friday card. Too many favs probably but we are nearing the finish of the regular season and top teams are fighting for play-off seeds. Looking at the standings is crucial at this time of the year. I'm also leaning over in Bayreuth/Berlin game.

Eurocup: Galatasaray +2 (1.94)
ProA: Dunkerque/Antibes u147 (1.95)
BBL: Ludwigsburg -5.5 (1.98)
BBL: Ulm -7 (1.94)
BBL: Frankfurt -5.5 (1.97)
 
I finally surpassed the 30 unit mark. I was hoping it will take less time but betting is always a grind. It was very close to sweep today until Galatasaray lost control of the game in final 2 minutes of the game. I wont be whining though, a profit has been made and that's the most important. Weekend will be super fun with many games played across all major and minor leagues.

Galatasaray +2 - L
Dunkerque/Antibes u147 - W
Ludwigsburg -5.5 - W
Ulm -7 - W
Frankfurt -5.5 - W

April 22nd: 4-1 (+2.84u)

Season: 352-300-13 (+31.64)
 
I couldn't believe bookmakers made Chalon an underdog. It's like taking the Warriors at full strength as +3.5 dog at Memphis or Dallas. It's a miracle that Le Mans is still 4th in the standings. I also like Kolejliler -5.5, Saratov +16 (+14 now), Khimki -9.5, Novgorod -5.5 and AEK +3.5.

A1: Aris -3 (1.97) C
A1: PAOK/AEK Athens o146.5 (1.95) B
BSL: Gaziantep/Yesilgiresun o161.5 (1.93) B
ProA: Chalon +3 (1.97) A
ProA: Pau-Orthez -4 (1.95) B
 
I'm done with betting on totals this season. How can a pro team score 4 points during first 8 minutes of the quarter? This kind of sh*t happens too often for my taste.

Aris -3 - W
PAOK/AEK Athens o146.5 - L
Gaziantep/Yesilgiresun o161.5 - L
Chalon +3 - L
Pau-Orthez -4 - L

April 23rd: 1-4 (-3.03u)

Season: 353-304-13 (+28.61u)
 
Yes, I'm aware of Laboral in letdown spot after advancing to Euroleague Final Four but how often can we get them favored by one point against Fuenlabrada? There's value and there's some risk to take for sure. There's a reason we call it gambling. I may add a play or two from LegaA later.

ACB: Bilbao +2.5 (1.96)
ACB: Gran Canaria -10 (1.92)
ACB: Vitoria -1 (1.95)
ACB: Ream Madrid +1.5 (1.97)
BBL: Frankfurt +3.5 (1.97)
BBL: Bamberg +2 (1.95)
BSL: Besiktas -6.5 (1.94)
 
4-0 on early games - Real, Bilbao, Baskonia and Gran Canaria cover in style with two underdogs winning outright.
:money:
 
Adding:

TBL: Toruń +5 (1.98)
LegaA: Orlandina +14 (1.92)
LegaA: Pesaro -3.5 (1.92)

I like Torino +2.5 / FH +1 but it's too risky. This will be a helluva of a game, loser may be relegated from LegaA.
 
utfootball4 said:
TBL: Toruń +5 (1.98) PLK?

kutno
gora
wroclaw

those are decent.
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Yes, PLK [Polish Basketball League] now it's Tauron BL [TBL] because of sponsor (big energy producer).

Be careful with Polish league. This is the only basketball league in Europe where the two worst teams are not relegated, so the in the last rounds almost all games are meaningless - players don't care if their team finishes 10th, 12th or 16th in the standings. Even managers/clubs don't care - they pay for license and that's alll. In this situation it's very hard to guess which teams will show up to play. Yet some teams are potent enough to cover because there's no parity like in French or Italian league and the worst teams in TBL are really bad.
 
BTW Valencia line is overblown and I'm not going to just sit and look how Valencia players are struggling to cover. I'm going to add Tenerife +16 to my card.

ACB: Tenerife +16 (1.98)
 
Like i said earlier i never look at lineups or different situations... I'm just reading and tracking lines and using my overall experience. I wouldn't be surprise if all three of those teams win.

moneyprinter said:
Yes, PLK [Polish Basketball League] now it's Tauron BL [TBL] because of sponsor (big energy producer).

Be careful with Polish league. This is the only basketball league in Europe where the two worst teams are not relegated, so the in the last rounds almost all games are meaningless - players don't care if their team finishes 10th, 12th or 16th in the standings. Even managers/clubs don't care - they pay for license and that's alll. In this situation it's very hard to guess which teams will show up to play. Yet some teams are potent enough to cover because there's no parity like in French or Italian league and the worst teams in TBL are really bad.
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4-1 on late afternoon games. Frankfurt +3.5 and Bamberg +2.5 winning outright, Besiktas -6.5 and Pesaro -3.5 get the job done too. Orlandina +16 loss by just 2 points, aargh. 8-1 today, Toruń +5 and Tenerife +16 pending.

:money:
 
0-2 on early evening games. Brutal loss for Toruń, leading for over 30 min. but loosing SU & ATS (several missed FT's, 48% from FT line).

Awesome day overall. Three bets too many though. Only four game tomorrow in leagues I'm tracking. Short Monday card coming soon.

Bilbao +2.5 - W
Gran Canaria -10 - W
Vitoria -1 - W
Madrid +1.5 - W
Frankfurt +3.5 - W
Bamberg +2 - W
Besiktas -6.5 - W
Tenerife +16 - L
Toruń +5 - L
Orlandina +14 - L
Pesaro -3.5 - W

April 24th: 8-3 (+4.58u)

Season: 361-307-13 (+33.19u)

 
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It looks like public prefers Limoges over Monaco and I can understand why - Limoges is finally playing brilliant basketball but the same can be told about Monaco (8 dominant wins in a row). Monaco is one of the few teams in ProA that can match up Limoges very strong and heavy frontcourt. This game will be like a heavyweight fight. It won't be pretty and high scoring but the three points Monaco is getting may be enough to cover. Monaco won first meeting with Limoges in January 79:67 (at home). Total for that game was 147.0 (stayed under).

I will take a second look at the Bnei and Ashdod numbers tomorrow.

ProA: Monaco +3 (1.94)
ProA: Monaco/Limoges Under 150.5 (1.95)
 
Play-off pairs in Polish league are announced.

Stelmet BC Zielona Góra (1) – Asseco Gdynia (8)
Rosa Radom (2) – Polfarmex Kutno (7)
Anwil Włocławek (3) – King Wilki Morskie Szczecin (6)
Polski Cukier Toruń (4) – Energa Czarni Słupsk (5)
 
moneyprinter said:
It looks like public prefers Limoges over Monaco and I can understand why - Limoges is finally playing brilliant basketball but the same can be told about Monaco (8 dominant wins in a row). Monaco is one of the few teams in ProA that can match up Limoges very strong and heavy frontcourt. This game will be like a heavyweight fight. It won't be pretty and high scoring but the three points Monaco is getting may be enough to cover. Monaco won first meeting with Limoges in January 79:67 (at home). Total for that game was 147.0 (stayed under).

I will take a second look at the Bnei and Ashdod numbers tomorrow.

ProA: Monaco +3 (1.94)
ProA: Monaco/Limoges Under 150.5 (1.95)
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Spread looks good, slightly off.
 
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Easy win on pointspread but bad beat on total. I should have wait till game tip-off, the problem I was all day busy with other thing than betting. Both underdogs won outright in Winner League too. 32nd round in ProA tomorrow and huge game in Krasnodar.

Monaco +3 - W
Monaco/Limoges Under 150.5 - L

April 25th: 1-1 (-0.06u)

Season: 362-308-13 (+33.13u)
 
Timur Rustamov, Russian journalist specializing in basketball wrote on Twitter that honorary VTB president Sergey Ivanov hinted at the possibility of cutting down VTB League to 14 teams next season. Tbilisi and Volgograd will be out for sure. Vita had gone bankrupt and four Volgograd managers were arrested recently.

Annual information about budgets of Russian teams were also released at the same press conference. CSKA had budget of 2.76 billions of rubles (35-40 mil. euro), Khimki had 2nd biggest budget of 21-23 mil euro, Lokomotiv Kuban in 14-16 range and Unics Kazan with under 10 mil €. Of three Russian Euroleague clubs Loko has the highest percentage of budget spent on player salaries - 70,8%. Khimki pay 67,6%, CSKA - 57,8%
 
I don't know what to do with that Euroleague game - we don't know what strategy Barcelona will employ tomorrow - the one from game one (totally ineffective) or the one from game two that got killed Kuban at home court. And the second problem is the refs - at which side will they be, because it's obvious that Euroleague management is using refs to steering the outcomes of the selected games (the decisive ones). The worst kept secret is that there are teams in Euroleague that can't be defeated when lots of $ is on the table. Especially by a team that will not play in Euroleague next season. So Barcelona +2.5 looks like the right play, Loko -2.5 may be sucker line for public (it will be heavy bet game for sure). This Loko cinderella story must end at some point. And the last X-factor is Antony Randolph. If he turns on killing mode one more time, he can single handedly decide Barcelona fate. Is he able to reproduce the effort from the game four? Will Barca allow him to play like that one more time? I'm leaning Barcelona +2.5 but I need more time to think about it.

Tuesday card (lot's of ProA - it's my favorite league):

Chalon -7 (1.98) B
Chalons -4.5 (1.90) C
Cholet -3.5 (1.94) B
Le Mans +5 (1.95) A
Kiryat Gat +17 (1.95) C

Best bet - Le Mans (and Chalon). Pau was covering at such a high rate for several weeks that it's obvious it's not sustainable in long run - they have lost their last two in bad style, they look tired and apparently their shot is off. Chalon is 7-0 ATS after a loss. Bounce back spot for them. Chalon is also 13-3 ATS at home in ProA. Le Mans may win it outright, my numbers show that the wrong team is favored, value is at Le Mans moneyline @2.94.
 
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Right now im starting a nice parlay with le man and reims ml with many open spots. Not sure about chalons cholet.
 
utfootball4 said:
Right now im starting a nice parlay with le man and reims ml with many open spots. Not sure about chalons cholet.
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Yeah, Chalon might be risky - they're in look ahead spot - on Friday they play in FIBA Cup Final Four but they are very tough to beat at home, often crushing visiting teams by 20+ points. I'm a big fan of betting on/against teams in spots but in this case I trust Chalon more than Pau that is getting ice cold very fast. Le Havre is 8-23 ATS in ProA, the team will be relegated, players and coaching stuff gave up long ago.
 
utfootball4 said:
why only a C Chalons -4.5 (1.90) C?
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I watched last 2 Antibes games and I was impressed by this young team, how hard the play on defense. Yes, they are still making lots of mistakes on both sides of the floor but with the hight, strength and energy this young squad is possessing they can compete with anyone in ProA. I won't be surprised if they physically dominate smaller Chalons squad. Chalons average height 196cm (6'5), Antibes 200cm (6'7'').
 
Glad i stayed away from everything besides one parlay starter.
[TABLE="class: Grid, width: 1562"]
<tbody>[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"]Open[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]20 Team Parlay[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4/26/16 11:30am Finland Basketball 1512 Helsinki Seagulls IF +110* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Pyrinto Tampere[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Le Mans of course 'forgot' to show to play. Loko deserved that win and Final Four participation. They were clearly better team.

Chalon -7 - W
Chalons -4.5 - W
Cholet -3.5 - L
Le Mans +5 - L
Kiryat Gat +17 - W
Barcelona +2 - L

April 26th: 3-3 (-0.17u)

Season: 365-311-13 (+32.96u)
 
Galatasaray owners and management wish to play in Euroleague may become true today. What was not possible through agreements may be decided on basketball court (Eurocup winner will be invited to next season Euroleague). Teams stronger or equal to Strasbourg were losing in double digits in Istanbul. Gran Canaria lost there by 14 and Bayern Munich by 13 points. Definitely Galatasaray is capable of winning by more than 4 points. Home team will be looking to quickly build big lead and control the pace of the game from start to finish. Galatasaray is 9-2 ATS as home favorite in Eurocup this season.

Eurocup: Galatasaray -8 (1.96)

12.000 tickets sold.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">En version chorégraphique aussi <a href="https://t.co/IAZwq09x7t">pic.twitter.com/IAZwq09x7t</a></p>&mdash; Arnaud Lecomte (@ArnoLecomte) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArnoLecomte/status/725365242625179648">April 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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moneyprinter said:
Galatasaray owners and management wish to play in Euroleague may become true today. What was not possible through agreements may be decided on basketball court (Eurocup winner will be invited to next season Euroleague). Teams stronger or equal to Strasbourg were losing in double digits in Istanbul. Gran Canaria lost there by 14 and Bayern Munich by 13 points. Definitely Galatasaray is capable of winning by more than 4 points. Home team will be looking to quickly build big lead and control the pace of the game from start to finish. Galatasaray is 9-2 ATS as home favorite in Eurocup this season.

Eurocup: Galatasaray -8 (1.96)
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Something is off with this ml/spread.
 
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