European basketball season 2015/2016

utfootball4 said:
loko +2 why???
Click to expand...

No Delaney. There were rumors that Randolph may not dress for that game (minor injury). He played poorly (16 min. - 6 pts). Today's game was 14th game during last 30 days for Loko. The players were visibly tired in game 1, game 2 and today. Khimki was well rested and full of energy. They didn't even needed F Davis and C Augustine.

Kuban was resting their 2 main guys (Delaney & Randolph) ahead of Euroleague Final Four (next Friday).
 
Aris loss was brutal but the rest was rather easy. I will have some good picks for tomorrow in couple of hours.

Khimki -2 - W
St.Petersburg +4.5 - W
Antibes/Le Havre u160.5 - W
Aris +13 - L

May 6th: 3-1 (+1.93u)

Season: 394-333-14 (+36.47u)
 
Saturday card. I will probably add some plays later.

ACB: Bilbao -1 (1.96) B
ProA: Cholet +1.5 (1.93) B
LegaA: Sassari +6.5 (1.97) C
 
First reverse sweep since some time. I will rebound from this rough day. Unfortunately it wiped out my earnings in current month. Never saw so many teams struggling so badly. What Monaco and Bilbao did is unbelievable.

Bilbao -1 - L
Cholet +1.5 - L
Sassari +6.5 - L
Orleans TT u80 - L
Monaco -5.5 - L
Chalon +2 - L

May 7th: 0-6 (-6.00u)

Season: 394-339-14 (+30.47u)
 
Another fave choked - this time Gran Canaria (17 point lead cut to 2). I was so irritated that I skipped afternoon games.

Gran Canaria -12.5 - L
Vitoria -4 - W

May 8th: 1-1 (-0.07u)

Season: 395-340-14 (+30.40u)
 
A1: Olympiacos Team Total o77 (1.96) B
ProA: Dunkerque +6.5 (1.94) B
LegaA: Venezia +4 (1.92) C
BBL: Munich -5.5 (1.90) C
 
Ml parlay:
Asvel Lyon Villeurbanne
FC Bayern Munchen
SPO Rouen Basketball they finally get a home win.
Vanoli Cremona

Red = leans
 
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i need 2 teams


  1. 5/6/2016 8:15PM Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 6½ -155
  2. 5/6/2016 9:35PM San Antonio Spurs +168 vs Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. 5/7/2016 10:00AM Kyle Edmund -270 vs Filip Krajinovic
  4. 5/7/2016 7:10PM Seattle Mariners -170 vs Houston Astros
  5. 5/8/2016 6:30AM Real Madrid -220 vs Unicaja Malaga
  6. 5/8/2016 9:00AM Royal Hali Gaziantep -600 vs Ronesands Ted Ankara Kolejliler
  7. 5/8/2016 2:00PM Karolina Kowalkiewicz -320 vs Heather Jo Clark
  8. 5/8/2016 3:00PM Germaine de Randamie -400 vs Anna Elmos
 
Olympiacos TT o77 - W
Dunkerque +6.5 - W
Venezia +4 - L
Munich -5.5 - L

May 10th: 2-2 (-0.10u)

Season: 397-342-14 (+30.30u)
 
BBL: Frankfurt +4.5 (1.95) C
BBL: Oldenburg +3.5 (1.91) C
LegaA: Pistoia/Avellino u155.5 (1.93) B
ACB: Gran Canaria/ Barcelona u162 (1.94) C
 
moneyprinter said:
TBL: Włocławek +5.5 (1.94)
Click to expand...

Damn, I was thinking about taking the home team ML to finish my parlay... The numbers are almost perfect (if they stay the same by tip) with a 80% chance to win on the ml.


  1. 5/6/2016 8:15PM Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 6½ -155
  2. 5/6/2016 9:35PM San Antonio Spurs +168 vs Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. 5/7/2016 10:00AM Kyle Edmund -270 vs Filip Krajinovic
  4. 5/7/2016 7:10PM Seattle Mariners -170 vs Houston Astros
  5. 5/8/2016 6:30AM Real Madrid -220 vs Unicaja Malaga
  6. 5/8/2016 9:00AM Royal Hali Gaziantep -600 vs Ronesands Ted Ankara Kolejliler
  7. 5/8/2016 2:00PM Karolina Kowalkiewicz -320 vs Heather Jo Clark
  8. 5/8/2016 3:00PM Germaine de Randamie -400 vs Anna Elmose
  9. 5/10/2016 10:10PM Los Angeles Dodgers -125 vs New York Mets
  10. 5/12/2016 2:00 PM Poland Basketball Rosa Radom -200 vs Anwil Wloclawek
 
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No play found something better.

utfootball4 said:
Damn, I was thinking about taking the home team ML to finish my parlay... The numbers are almost perfect (if they stay the same by tip) with a 80% chance to win on the ml.


  1. 5/6/2016 8:15PM Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 6½ -155
  2. 5/6/2016 9:35PM San Antonio Spurs +168 vs Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. 5/7/2016 10:00AM Kyle Edmund -270 vs Filip Krajinovic
  4. 5/7/2016 7:10PM Seattle Mariners -170 vs Houston Astros
  5. 5/8/2016 6:30AM Real Madrid -220 vs Unicaja Malaga
  6. 5/8/2016 9:00AM Royal Hali Gaziantep -600 vs Ronesands Ted Ankara Kolejliler
  7. 5/8/2016 2:00PM Karolina Kowalkiewicz -320 vs Heather Jo Clark
  8. 5/8/2016 3:00PM Germaine de Randamie -400 vs Anna Elmose
  9. 5/10/2016 10:10PM Los Angeles Dodgers -125 vs New York Mets
  10. 5/12/2016 2:00 PM Poland Basketball Rosa Radom -200 vs Anwil Wloclawek
Click to expand...
 
utfootball4 said:
Damn, I was thinking about taking the home team ML to finish my parlay... The numbers are almost perfect (if they stay the same by tip) with a 80% chance to win on the ml.


  1. 5/6/2016 8:15PM Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 6½ -155
  2. 5/6/2016 9:35PM San Antonio Spurs +168 vs Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. 5/7/2016 10:00AM Kyle Edmund -270 vs Filip Krajinovic
  4. 5/7/2016 7:10PM Seattle Mariners -170 vs Houston Astros
  5. 5/8/2016 6:30AM Real Madrid -220 vs Unicaja Malaga
  6. 5/8/2016 9:00AM Royal Hali Gaziantep -600 vs Ronesands Ted Ankara Kolejliler
  7. 5/8/2016 2:00PM Karolina Kowalkiewicz -320 vs Heather Jo Clark
  8. 5/8/2016 3:00PM Germaine de Randamie -400 vs Anna Elmose
  9. 5/10/2016 10:10PM Los Angeles Dodgers -125 vs New York Mets
  10. 5/12/2016 2:00 PM Poland Basketball Rosa Radom -200 vs Anwil Wloclawek
Click to expand...

-200 in Radom/Włocławek case has little value imo. Both teams have good chance to win. I like the dog because of playing style, players age and height. Włocławek is better at Off.Reb., generating more possessions, also their ORtg is slightly higher.
 
Adding:

LegaA: Milano -1 (1.91)

I like Trento - the club and players (Wright, Sutton, Lockett and Pascolo) had fantastic season but unfortunately for them they are playing powerhouse team. I think this may end like yesterday Pistoia/Avellino game.
 
[TABLE="class: Grid, width: 1562"]
<tbody style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"]10 Team Parlay[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/6/16 8:15pm Live In-Play Baseball 9959 Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 6½ -155* (Fixed Price)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/6/16 11:49pm[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/6/16 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9519 San Antonio Spurs +168* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Oklahoma City Thunder [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/7/16 9:59am[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/7/16 10:00am Challenger Tennis 2402 Kyle Edmund -270* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Filip Krajinovic [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/7/16 9:11pm[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/7/16 7:10pm Live In-Play Baseball 9923 Seattle Mariners -170* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Houston Astros (Fixed Price)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 6:29am[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 6:30am Spain Basketball 1529 Real Madrid -220* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Unicaja Malaga [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 8:59am[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 9:00am Turkey Basketball 1604 Royal Hali Gaziantep -600* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Ronesands Ted Ankara Kolejliler [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 2:13pm[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 2:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Karolina Kowalkiewicz -320* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Heather Jo Clark [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 3:11pm[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/8/16 3:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Germaine de Randamie -400* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Anna Elmose [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/10/16 11:28pm[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Win[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/10/16 10:10pm Live In-Play Baseball 9962 Los Angeles Dodgers -125* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New York Mets (Fixed Price)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/12/16 12:29pm[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5/12/16 12:30pm Softball Baseball 1172 Florida Gulf Coast -230* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Kennesaw State (Fixed Price)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

FGCU 2-0
 
Two wins and a push. The refs in Trento had no idea what they were doing. Absolutely horrible referring. Brutal season ending for Trento - one of my favorite squads in 2015/2016 season.

I don't like to bet on EL Final Four games and I'm not doing this usually but I will take a look at the numbers and maybe find something interesting. The problem is: the lines are even tougher to beat in F4 in comparison to regular season, there's very little value, the market and public goes crazy and the final score is absolutely unpredictable and kind of random. One thing everyone betting F4 should remember - the teams will be maneuvering through quarter-finals, trying to save as much energy for final as possible (this applies to favs - Fener and CSKA). Still, the points the dogs are getting may be insufficient. Be careful with Kuban - they are tired and some players had minor injuries. CSKA has 3.5 bigger budget than Loko. Jan Vesely is back for Fener, so Baskonia should be on top of their game to have a shot at beating Istanbul.

We will see..

TBL: Włocławek +5.5 - W
BBL: Bamberg -14 - W
LegaA: Milano -1 - P

May 12th: 2-0-1 (+1.89u)

Season: 399-342-15 (+32.19u)
 
Frankfurt is my best bet, other plays are much riskier but I want some more action. Market is overvaluating Radom, Monbus, Malaga and Strasbourg. None of those teams is playing superb basketball right now (Malaga played great bball until they got crushed by Real Madrid). Valencia will be without F Sikma (season ending injury 2 days ago).

BBL: Frankfurt -6.5 (1.92) A
TBL: Włocławek +6.5 (1.96) C
ACB: Andorra -3 (1.90) C
ACB: Malaga/Valencia u152 (1.98) C
ProA: Pau-Lacq-Orthez +5 FH (1.94) C
 
Euroleague: Laboral Kutxa +1 (1.95) A

No Randolph for Loko tomorrow. Currently Baskonia is listed as +1 dog on Pinnacle. Don't miss it out, folks.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Georgios Bartzokas has ruled out Anthony Randolph vs Baskonia due to injuries.</p>&mdash; David Pick (@IAmDPick) <a href="https://twitter.com/IAmDPick/status/731536473581834240">May 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bartzokas: We have some injury issues; Randolph is not going to play <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/F4Glory?src=hash">#F4Glory</a></p>&mdash; Sportando (@Sportando) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportando/status/731538101898752000">May 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Pau-Orthez slow start, Włocławek imploding in 4Q (32:17) and bad read on Andorra cost me a unit. Horrible combination of bad luck and bad decisions...

Frankfurt -6.5 - W
Włocławek +6.5 - L
Andorra -3 - L
Malaga/Valencia u152 - W
Pau-Lacq-Orthez +5 FH - L

May 14th: 2-3 (-1.10u)

Season: 401-346-15 (+31.09u)
 
I'm skipping EL F4 - Fenerbahce had great start in first game but faded away with each minute. From the other side CSKA has long history of choking in F4 but I don't feel comfortable betting against such a powerful team, so it's a pass for me. The line movement is crazy - from +3.5 to -3.5. Whopping 7 points. Lean OVER. Pace and intensity of this game should be awesome.

ProA: Chalon -4 (1.92) A
ProA: Monaco -5.5 (1.97) B
Winner: Nahariya -4 (1.95) B
Euroleague: Vitoria +1 (1.95) *locked earlier today
 
Great Euroleague Final, one of the best in recent years. CSKA had 20-point lead, blew it and won in dramatic fashion in overtime. I'm glad I stayed away from this, though over hit easily. As of Loko - they simply wanted it more, Laboral had a hangover after semifinal loss. In tournament 3rd place type of games betting on over is the best choice (always). Overs are hitting in unprecedented rate - much higher than 53%. It applies to all team sport - basketball, volleyball, handball and so on.

I was betting with the market today and went 1-3. I shouldn't change my style of fading public and betting against line movement in some situations - it is way more profitable strategy especially when underdogs are involved.

Something wrong is going with Chalon. Participation in FIBA Cup F4 hurt them, the team is tired, players look distracted by all this talk about NBA scouts watching them and possibility of being drafted. Lyon-Villeurbanne had very bad season and has a lot to prove on the court. ASVEL stunned Chalon in game 1 and will be looking to eliminate them from the playoffs. Betting against Chalon may be the smart choice. Chalon for me is the biggest disappointment in this year playoffs beside Oldenburg losing to Ulm.

Chalon -4 - L
Monaco -5.5 - W
Nahariya -4 - L
Vitoria +1 - L

May 15th: 1-3 (-2.03u)

Season: 402-349-15 (+29.06u)
 
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