Kyle Hamilton, best N Dame d-back, maybe best player on the D, is out v N Carolina
On the other hand, N Carolina has not won a game, either SU or ATS, on the road this year.
Yes. I know you were big on Notre Dame last week. I had USC. Congratulations, the Notre Dame D earned that win. USC was haunted by four trips inside the ND 25 yard line and came away with just 3 total points. USC outgained them by 50 yards (+.7 ypp) despite losing by DD.
I think UNC is a better unit. USC has struggled in the RZ often this year. UNC is better there. UNC has the better QB. UNC's OL has been a problem this year, but Howell's running can help offset that. He rushes for 70 yards per game. His passing numbers are down, with the receivers lost somewhat understandable, but his running is a significantly different and improved part of his game. Just the run game in total, USC isn't that good at it and doesn't commit to it. UNC is a much more balanced O, better running team in a conventional sense in addition to the QB run.
ND has had their own OL and QB issues this year. While my respect has grown for ND's D...their O leaves a lot to be desired still.
I think it is a good spot for UNC. Obviously it hasn't been a great season, but off the bye with a chance to regroup here. Goes without saying both teams are not as good as they were when they faced off last year, ND was in the playoff! That game was close for 1st H and halftime then ND D smothered them in the 2nd H. I think it is a more evenly matched game this year and UNC should capitalize on some of the missed opportunities that USC could not.
I prefer dogs, s--k. Who are your favorite dogs this week?
What other underdogs do I like that might appeal to you? Did you see Stanford Steve was asked about one play on SVP last night and he replied - Kansas!
Louisville is one. 2dabank is liking them too. The LB injury for NC St might've lost the game vs Miami. That 3rd-15 conversion probably doesn't happen if Isiah Moore is in position guarding the middle of the field. You never want to be overly influenced by injuries picking games, but NC St D is getting pretty thin in spots as the season goes on. They did just have a bye 3 weeks ago, however, that Miami game might've taken something out of them and Louisville could be a little fresher.
Each team played BC recently. LV won 28-14 and NC State won 33-7. NC State's is not really that impressive when you consider the fact that the game was just 10-7 HT (BC had dropped TD on 4th-3 passing up FG) and BC imploded in the 2nd H with a dropped punt snap that NC St ran in for TD, 2min later BC throws a pick and then NC St got like an 80y TD when two BC players were around the receiver but both failed to either make a play on the ball or a tackle and the receiver splits them for a long TD catch and run. There was little evidence in the 1st H of that game that it would turn so one-sided. Louisville on the other hand was much more impressive in the 1st H vs BC, BC only crossed midfield once and LV squandered some more points with turnovers in the 1st H, but still led 21-7. BC scored TD in the 2nd H thanks to a fumble recovery on a short field. NC St outgained BC 381-279 and won 33-7. LV outgained them 438-266 and only won 28-14, but LV was more impressive play in and play out.
LV does hurt themselves at times, although as 2dabank likes to tell us, NC St also hurts themselves with the way they run their O. Devin Leary passing 35x a game on average isn't their best approach. LV played good enough vs WF and Virginia to win, blew a big lead vs Virginia and lost to WF at the gun.
Old Dominion might be on your no play list. Dollaz planted a seed for me on this one and once I started looking at it, La Tech really is kinda bad. I personally did ML them vs Miss St and SMU, lost both, but they were close to winning those games kind of inexplicably, they shouldn't have been that close with either. Then they pushed NC St pretty hard. When you look at the numbers though, it is pretty bad. Their run D appears to be average for a mid-pack P5 team, but the only teams they did well vs the run were Miss St (who doesn't try to run much) and UTEP. They've let pretty much everyone else gash them for 5 ypc. LT themselves don't run it well. Their RZ TD% scored is awful, as is their RZ D TD% allowed. They don't get pass rush on D and they get sacked pretty good clip on O. I'm not sure there is anything to really say they are good at. Kendall passes for 4th most yards in CUSA, but just a 12-9 ratio and barely 60% completions. I trust you are like me, we know little to nothing about ODU so that likely excludes you backing them. Dollarz thinks that ODU is not as bad as their record. They did nearly beat Buffalo and Marshall and came back to lose close at UTEP (I think UTEP had to hold off a comeback and kind of battle just to kill clock in that one - I had ODU 2nd H there). Just with LT being a bad favorite and on the road has my interest.
Purdue seems attractive given the 7.5 unless it is bait. Chances are Nebraska will do something to hurt themselves in this game. Jeff Brohm is 2-1 vs Scott Frost in their 3 games vs eachother. Nebraska did win by 10 last year.
Fresno State is a small dog +1 that I like quite a bit. Rare for me, I actually took San Diego St last week, I usually fade them, but the situation and the line was too much to pass up. Then Nevada was one of my bigger plays against Fresno. I think this is a good matchup for Fresno because the San Diego St O shouldn't be more than Fresno can handle. Aztecs can run it well,
sometimes, not all the time, and that is about it. They occasionally hit some passes, but they miss way more than they hit. Fresno should be able to limit the damage from SD St run O and then I really like the Fresno pass game vs San Diego State. What is the best passing team to play San Diego State this year? I can't even answer that, nobody has a competent pass game who's played them. Nick Nash passed for 238 on them and he missed some big throws that would've been more. I think the San Diego State D is vulnerable through the air and Haener is usually really good. Fresno receivers are very good. As long as Haener doesn't have a another game like he did at Hawaii (4 INTs - he has only thrown 7 all year, 4 at Hawaii!).
Wondering if S Diego St might catch Fresno St in a sandwich game.
Impossible! They are both in the same division. If Fresno wins this game they most likely win the division with victories over the other two contenders. Boise is on deck, that game is on the other side of the conference. San Diego State is a much much bigger game for Fresno than Boise would be.
Several others I lean or haven;t fully developed opinions on.
I am with you on SMU. I too am thinking WVU, but am fearful because Iowa State seems to have them figured out. Check the last 3 in the series, it isn't pretty. I could see myself taking WVU 1st H rather than full game perhaps. I'd play Iowa over Wisconsin, but hard to have a great feeling about it. I would rather have Florida than Georgia. UCLA/Utah is nothing for me I don't think. Already talked about UNC/ND. Ore St/Cal is incredibly tough.
Michigan State - Michigan? I think Michigan St is good enough to stay in this game on both O and D. If Michigan won and covered, I wouldn't be shocked though. They both played Rutgers. They both played NW and they both played Nebraska. Maybe there are some clues buried within those results?
