ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 9

KJ said:
Fuente is a dead man walking, no?

Has turned out to be an unusual fit
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last few times ive seen hokies i saw flashes of beamer ball with the special teams making all kinds of plays to help the offense out.
 
2daBank said:
I have no interest in backing mia vs Pitt. Honestly don’t understand why they taking money? Just fading the spot for clemson or is there a new misguided belief in this canes team with Van Dyke? Don’t get me wrong they def look better with him and I do think he been playing better every week,
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Agree. The Canes are a lot better with this kid at QB. I never thought King was a good enough passer to succeed at the Power 5 level, but this kid looks like he'll be a good one

I like Pitt, but that's more points than I want to lay with them

Good summary of the ACC games. I don't see risking money on any of those games right now except maybe N Dame v N Carolina, but I may pass on that one with Hamilton out. I'm sure the Irish will knock a lot of the fight out of N Carolina by the second half, but not sure they can replace Hamilton with anyone good enough to keep the defense at their usual level. Still pondering that one
 
TahoeLegend said:
Agree. The Canes are a lot better with this kid at QB. I never thought King was a good enough passer to succeed at the Power 5 level, but this kid looks like he'll be a good one

I like Pitt, but that's more points than I want to lay with them

Good summary of the ACC games. I don't see risking money on any of those games right now except maybe N Dame v N Carolina, but I may pass on that one with Hamilton out. I'm sure the Irish will knock a lot of the fight out of N Carolina by the second half, but not sure they can replace Hamilton with anyone good enough to keep the defense at their usual level. Still pondering that one
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i dont pay much attention to the irish. what their pass rush like? if they can rush the passer they be a problem for Howelll and co..

everything i have read/heard Van Dyke is def the guy the players want, he has shown improvement every week, i saw him in the spring game and he certainly looked solid.. He might continue improving but i dont think it will show in his numbers this week as he coming up against a defense that gonna be all up in his face and play far more aggressively than he has seen up to this point.. i like the way he hangs in the pocket and willing to take a shot to deliver the ball. pitt will test his metal here but if oline just gives him a little time and he does stare down the pressure there will be a couple big plays to be had!! i just dont think canes will be able to consistently drive the field and that is what pitt gonna do.. i thought the open was pretty much spot on at 11. let it get bet down to -7 and ill play pitt! lol.. im back and forth on whether i want to play the under 61, my acc sides been really good but the totals not as much. i certainly understand why it 61, this could turn into another high scoring pitt affair, especially if canes jumped out to a lead, then it probably fly over. i dont think that will happen tho and i think pitt will be really patient on offense, since we know they gonna run it 50% the time i have no doubt pitt gonna figure out they can gash these guys with the run game. i expect a methodical effort by pitt which should keep the score in the low 50s.. canes team total under is a interesting idea imo. im assuming we talking a shade over 24? i think i like that!!
 
2daBank said:
yea that probably wouldnt be good. Burmeister is terrible imo but he does run around and make things happen at times.. honestly i really lean to gtech but not happy with that number as not much value imo.. i think this a good matchup for jackets, imo the way to really cause their defense the most problems is thru the air, their front 7 isnt bad against the run and i think a team who they particularly good at defending is teams who line up and try to run on early downs then only throw when they get into 3rd and longs, overall gtech doesnt get a lot of pressure but they are top 25 in passing down sack rate despite the fact they been awful getting off the field on 3rd downs, mfers alliow teams to convert 3rd downs almost 49% of the time which ranks 123rd in the country!! surprisingly that one the few things the hokies do well.

Bare with me here im kinda going in depth on this game as i post this so things might contradict or jumble together as i find more things! starting to see why i wasnt gonna play gtech laying that number! lol.

both teams have some big flaws that i think should lead to points. assuming Burmiester the qb he and the not that talented wr corp will benefit from a bad gtech pass d and it seems incredibly obvious he gonna be able to run around and keep drives going on 3rd downs! we saw how Shrader just killed hokies on the ground and thru the air and i think simms is a more talented version of him, especially as a passer.. the more i look the more i like the over, pitt and clemson the only 2 teams jackets havnt been able to hang a pretty big number against. we said before betting pitt in that game their defense was gonna be a problem for the jackets as they also were the hokies shortly after, pitt had the team speed in the front 7 to prevent those qbs from running around and making plays, that the key to stopping both these teams and think we have plenty of evidence to suggest these defenses wont be up for the task!!

last week the hokies/cuse total was 45 and i leaned under! lol. i actually played under when hokies played ND. i still dont know how there were so many points in the ND game? i believe hokies scored off turnovers and special teams setting up or actually scoring the points. on the other side irish brought in a backup qb that had the kind of skill set we learning a real problem for hokies to defend and he ran for 67 yards and key 1st downs and a td! I was lucky i passed on the cuse under and played cuse instead, i see now why that was a bad play, real bad when ya consider how low it was! On the other hand i dont think the loss on ND/tech under was a bad play, the early stages of that game looked very much like i expected, then irish back up qb came in and started causing points for both sides, you cant really cap that shit!! So obviously this total been adjusted up from the Cuse game, is 11 points enough? maybe if we were talking identical teams but i think cuse defense is better than gtech while gtech offense is a tad more dangerous with simms looking like the better passer at this point,. not to mention we saw 75 points in the cuse game last week!! im having a real hard time thinking either team struggles to score 30 here, potential to fly over the total is pretty great imo.
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This is only the second road game for VT with the first being a short trip to WVU. They will not have the defense and special teams play that they have enjoyed from playing almost every game at home.
 
He Hate Me said:
This is only the second road game for VT with the first being a short trip to WVU. They will not have the defense and special teams play that they have enjoyed from playing almost every game at home.
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i dont think we need them, for most part rather not see turnovers. not sure why the special teams cant play well on the road? is that really a thing that special teams are less impactful on the road?
 
s--k said:
The LB injury for NC St might've lost the game vs Miami. That 3rd-15 conversion probably doesn't happen if Isiah Moore is in position guarding the middle of the field. You never want to be overly influenced by injuries picking games, but NC St D is getting pretty thin in spots as the season goes on. Th
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I pay a lot more attention to injuries on the defensive side than I do the defense, especially if it's the toughest guy and leader of the D.

It's rare even the best teams have anyone who can replace their toughest guy. Oklahoma exploded last year when the suspension ended and they got their toughest guy on defense AND toughest guy on offense back the same week

Excellent summary of dogs, s--k, thanks. The only two you mentioned that interest me are Purdue and Fresno. Probably won't bet either one.

I'm not motivated enough this week I guess. I have to have 10 picks for my contest and I'm not sure I can find 10 I like. Probably only bet two for sure, SMU and Iowa. N Dame still interests me, I'm always willing to risk money with the toughest team. W Virginia maybe

I can't see Florida staying on the field with Georgia, but I recall a lot of Cocktail Parties where the underdog covered or won, like the year when Florida was a big favorite and when a big play occurred the entire Georgia team ran onto the field--a ploy they had planned--and started yelling and jumping around. The got a penalty, but they dominated the game from that point on

Dropped Utah from consideration because UCLA is so unpredictable. A lot of my handicapper friends are taking them because the think the UCLA QB is out, but the kid who came in for him looked like a better passer to me.

Line is now Baylor -2 in some spots and the Bears interest me--they are definitely the toughest team and I consider Texas soft--so thinking about that one.

Anyone have any feelings on Baylor/Texas?
 
KJ said:
Has the makings of a good old fashioned b12 game played in the 80s. Think Sark exploits the aggressive Bears defense and Baylor shouldn't have much issue running through the Horns D. Expecting a bunch of chunk yardage plays.
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that only thing i came away thinking after i looked at it.. which means it will no doubt be played in the 20s, lol.. i have absolutely no feel for baylor so not even trying to figure it out.. i know all the coaches and most the players different but they havnt sniffed 62 points in any the last 8 years.
 
2daBank said:
i dont pay much attention to the irish. what their pass rush like? if they can rush the passer they be a problem for Howelll and co
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N Dame is not outstanding on D. Statistically better than N Caro, but not one-sided.

They don't have one monster pass rusher, don't blitz much, bring pressure as a team, but they are playing as hard in the fourth quarter as they are in the first. They are more physical for sure, and have played a harder schedule, but I don't see them being able to overwhelm N Carolina and blow them off the field.

If they win it will be like the SC game--hit harder, be tougher, wear the other team down, pound on them. Make those hits pile up and diminish efficiency in the second half. N Carolina is 82 in rush defense--a lot worse than USC was going into last week and by the fourth quarter N Dame could run at will--and hasn't played a team with a good running game all year

I'm leaning to N Dame, but that hook makes it a luke-warm lean. If I play them I'll probably play ML. I think that's a better choice in the long run than buying the hook
 
lb49ers said:
Blazing 5

Buffalo (-14) 36-20
Indy (-2.5) 28-23
NE (+4.5) 27-26
Jax (+3.5) 24-23
NO (+4.5) 27-24
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look at this, he has more dogs than favs for a change (mr dog bettor, lol).. he realized this and had to take bills to even it out!!

i actually like his card a lot, im not laying 2tds ever, i dont care if that the new thing, i cant do it.. Like all the rest tho.
 
TahoeLegend said:
N Dame is not outstanding on D. Statistically better than N Caro, but not one-sided.

They don't have one monster pass rusher, don't blitz much, bring pressure as a team, but they are playing as hard in the fourth quarter as they are in the first. They are more physical for sure, and have played a harder schedule, but I don't see them being able to overwhelm N Carolina and blow them off the field.

If they win it will be like the SC game--hit harder, be tougher, wear the other team down, pound on them. Make those hits pile up and diminish efficiency in the second half. N Carolina is 82 in rush defense--a lot worse than USC was going into last week and by the fourth quarter N Dame could run at will--and hasn't played a team with a good running game all year

I'm leaning to N Dame, but that hook makes it a luke-warm lean. If I play them I'll probably play ML. I think that's a better choice in the long run than buying the hook
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i really havnt paid much attention to unc since they were so disappointing, it one thing to lose a game, that fine, but you come into the opening game the season against a pretty crappy vtech team and dont look prepared to play im out! ive blindly faded them a few times since just out of spite, lol. only thing i know about them is the oline sucks, the play calling is terrible, and they didnt do a good job replacing the guys who left for the NFL. Mac Brown really wasted what supposed to be a 1st round qb talent...
 
TahoeLegend said:
Hmmm, sounds like I may play N Dame after all
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i think unc is boarder line bad when they dont establish a run game, the problem is i find it damn near impossible to know when they will do that, im not even sure it been a matchup dependent thing or just terrible play calling? the oline ranks pretty well in rushing metrics but they awful in pass pro, their overall rushing numbers are skewed cause Howell has had some monster games on the ground, the tennessee transfer hasnt lived up to the guys he had to replace but some of that is not always getting the opportunities. i know irish not easy to run on so if they can convince unc to abandon the run game they should feast on the oline.
 
Lots of great comments on Louisville/NC State game. I'm on Louisville.

I won't rehash everyone's comments but my only concern is Louisville's pass D. Its a little suspect. Granted BC only had 141 yds in the air but, the prior 3 opponents were pretty big numbers. If NC St can win it could happen in the air. I still think Louisville will keep it close or win.

I also like that excluding the opener against Ole Miss, Louisville had not lost by > 3 pts this season. It just makes the 6.5 feel so much bigger.
 
The Iowa/Wisc game is tough one. I'd lean Iowa just because I think the Purdue game was a 1-off for them (possibly a let down after the big Penn St win).

The only advantages I see is that Iowa is coming off a bye week so they should be well rested and they have won twice on the road against what I would call decent, not great teams (ISU, Maryland). Meanwhile, Wisc has lost at home against good teams every time (ND, Mich, Penn St - week 1).

YPP data over last 3 games makes it a toss up at -3.

ESPN's Connelly stats indicate Wisc as the easy choice but, I think his data is punishing Iowa too much for losing to Purdue 2 weeks ago and yet knocking Iowa down again when Purdue lost to Wisc the following week.

I'm seeing a lot of +3 lines and a few +3.5 (juicy). If I can get decent line at +3.5, that's the route I'd go.
 
Tanko said:
Lots of great comments on Louisville/NC State game. I'm on Louisville.

I won't rehash everyone's comments but my only concern is Louisville's pass D. Its a little suspect. Granted BC only had 141 yds in the air but, the prior 3 opponents were pretty big numbers. If NC St can win it could happen in the air. I still think Louisville will keep it close or win.

I also like that excluding the opener against Ole Miss, Louisville had not lost by > 3 pts this season. It just makes the 6.5 feel so much bigger.
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those teams that were lighting ville up throw the air have qbs i think are significantly better than leary.. honestly i rather the geniuses calling plays for ncst would continue letting leary throw 40+ times instead of give it to those 2 stud rbs 14-20x each like they should every game, imo that why they lost to cases.
 
Tanko said:
The Iowa/Wisc game is tough one. I'd lean Iowa just because I think the Purdue game was a 1-off for them (possibly a let down after the big Penn St win).

The only advantages I see is that Iowa is coming off a bye week so they should be well rested and they have won twice on the road against what I would call decent, not great teams (ISU, Maryland). Meanwhile, Wisc has lost at home against good teams every time (ND, Mich, Penn St - week 1).

YPP data over last 3 games makes it a toss up at -3.

ESPN's Connelly stats indicate Wisc as the easy choice but, I think his data is punishing Iowa too much for losing to Purdue 2 weeks ago and yet knocking Iowa down again when Purdue lost to Wisc the following week.

I'm seeing a lot of +3 lines and a few +3.5 (juicy). If I can get decent line at +3.5, that's the route I'd go.
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to me the purdue loss doesnt mean much of anything, nor does fact psu prob beats iowa if clifford doesnt get hurt, they both have something in common., the ability to throw the ball without making bunch of mistakes.. i prey wiscy lets Mertz throw!! lol, he so bad.
 
2daBank said:
those teams that were lighting ville up throw the air have qbs i think are significantly better than leary.. honestly i rather the geniuses calling plays for ncst would continue letting leary throw 40+ times instead of give it to those 2 stud rbs 14-20x each like they should every game, imo that why they lost to cases.
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I think Leary is going to have to throw (40+ passes min). I think Louisville is going to put up 35+ in this game. NC St will have to throw.
If Louisville falls behind though, the NC St RBs will have a field day.
 
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Tanko said:
I'm seeing a lot of +3 lines and a few +3.5 (juicy). If I can get decent line at +3.5, that's the route I'd go.
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I took Iowa +3x. The only minus I see for Iowa is that great DB they have who has made big play after big play this year is still out this week

I don't rate it as important as N Dame losing Hamilton because Iowa has other good DBs and good backups.
 
Added ML Dog pickers
Bill Trocci— Week 9 (0-0) Season (11-13)
Michigan State
Miami (Fla)
Virginia Tech

Bill Bender-- Week 9 (0-0) Season (9-15)
Temple
Iowa
Virginia

Zac Al-Khateeb— Week 9 (0-0) Season (12-12)
Navy
Ole Miss
North Carolina
 
lb49ers said:
SVP

Florida (+14)
Mississippi St (+1.5)
Washington (+2.5)
California (+1.5)
Wisconsin (-3.5)
Houston (-0.5)
No Carolina St (-6.5)
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lol.. the dude goes out his way to mostly take dogs and bets that make no sense and he on ncst against my fav play of the week? what a dick! that doesnt even fit his style at all, i see 72% in yahoo pick contest taking ncst so what he doing? i know every bet he takes he trying to be contrarian so im confused
 
2daBank said:
i am trying to talk myself into mississippi st tho
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I'm leaning that way, but will probably just play them in a parlay

I played Nevada tonight in a parlay. Know a lot of people who are playing them and they are touting it as their biggest game in years. They usually draw pretty good crowds but this is their first sellout in six years. I wouldn't bet it, I don't even know you handicap a game like this.

Made one prop bet, the Nevada WR over 15x catches
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Bear's Bank Picks
CSU +2x
Nebraska -7x
Iowa State -7x
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Think I like CSU also. On podcast he was rambling bout how it stinky line tho, I didn’t get that stupid logic. I just think they match up well, can push boise around in trenches
 
2daBank said:
Think I like CSU also. On podcast he was rambling bout how it stinky line tho, I didn’t get that stupid logic. I just think they match up well, can push boise around in trenches
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I do too. I don't understand that gibberish Bear talks when he's discussing lines. CSU is inconsistent, but all the team in that conference can be inconsistent. In past years Boise hasn't been, but they are this year. I like the CSU defense and points at home.

There are a lot of late games I like but I'll wait until close to kickoff to pull the trigger
 
Super Dog Picks (will post picks when they make them
Desmond—6-2
Lee—Ohio 4-3-1
Reece—5-3
Kirk—5-3
David—3-5
 
Driving home from casino so bare e me , lol.

Gtech/Tech ov54
Hoisuers/terps 1st half under 24
Canes/Pitt u61
Iowa-+3
Cincy 1st qrtr -7

That my entire morning card
 
Bet four small two-team parlays for $20 bucks each with Nevada as the first team with three to be named. I love to do it because even if I go 1-3 I'm barely in the red.

You'd think even a guy who never made a bet could win one out of four if you already have the first game. So the question is, am I any better than a total amateur. The only slot I filled so far is Michigan St on Parlay one.
 
this was one those mornings i was saying i didnt like last week, where i had to play several totals to have morning action!! not that i dont like them i just prefer only playing 1 in the morning slate. we see how it goes. lol...

only game i think i have for 2;30 is k-st -3.5.. then several at night including Ville which my favorite play today..
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm on Iowa too

I'm not a totals bettor, but I figured that one was going over
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36 is soooo low,, they dont even have those in the NFL anymore!! freaking iowa wasted their great starting field position on opening drive, and has let wiscy flip the field now.. ugh.. wiscy is letting Mertz throw more than i expected, i was worried they be content with 3 runs and a punt which would make this a 1st to 17 wins kind of game. They let Mertz keep throwing it could lead to some iowa points!!
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Bear's Bank Picks
CSU +2x
Nebraska -7x
Iowa State -7x
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I do not like the ISU pick. They are coming on stronger as the year progresses, just like prior years with Campbell but, they don't seem to put away teams that are average in strength, especially winning by more than 7. Granted they did beat KSU by 13 a couple of weeks ago but KSU was driving at the end of the game to ISU 11 yd line and was going to get within 6.

-7 is just a bit too much for me to lean towards ISU today.
 
Tanko said:
I do not like the ISU pick. They are coming on stronger as the year progresses, just like prior years with Campbell but, they don't seem to put away teams that are average in strength, especially winning by more than 7. Granted they did beat KSU by 13 a couple of weeks ago but KSU was driving at the end of the game to ISU 11 yd line and was going to get within 6.

-7 is just a bit too much for me to lean towards ISU today.
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Purdy vs WVU

2020 @ ISU: ISU 43 WVU 6
2019 @ WVU: ISU 38 WVU 14
2020 @ ISU: ISU 30 WVU 14

I'm not playing it but probably should be on ISU, just not a fan of playing the Clones after the field storming last week. But Purdy has WVU's number undoubtedly, I sure wouldn't be on WVU today.
 
Tanko said:
I do not like the ISU pick. They are coming on stronger as the year progresses, just like prior years with Campbell but, they don't seem to put away teams that are average in strength, especially winning by more than 7. Granted they did beat KSU by 13 a couple of weeks ago but KSU was driving at the end of the game to ISU 11 yd line and was going to get within 6.

-7 is just a bit too much for me to lean towards ISU today.
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i agree. dont like nebraska laying a td either. i do think csu a solid play, his reasoning of the podcast was stupid, as previously been discussed he one them guys who bets games just cause the line "stinky" or cause he thinks the "public" is on the other side. Typical wanna be sharp.. im all bout fading boise this year tho, they have no run game/get no push up front, and you can def run on them as they play light boxes most the time. i remember the okie lite game they showed they had no freaking interest in throwing the ball (believe they had some wrs out for that game), yet in the second half boise continued to play light boxes and letting warren gash them for 6-7-8 ypc!!! rams not great at running the ball but they try to a lot!! think they will actually have success doing it today!!
 
TahoeLegend said:
No I was talking about your Pitt/Miami under bet
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oh, lol.. yea it easy to look at that game and think over, i could be wrong but 61 a lot, i had it 35-24 so not like there a ton of room, had i liked more sides this morning my only total would have been the tech's over... Iowa in trouble
 
i knew pitt would give up a big play or 2 but holy shit, not 2 in 1st 2 drives.. lol,. fuck.. i should have stayed in bed till the later games.
 
cincy pushes 1st qrtr, i gotta stop messing with them, they have not been coming out with any fire since the ND game.
 
2daBank said:
cincy pushes 1st qrtr, i gotta stop messing with them, they have not been coming out with any fire since the ND game.
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Well there was only 1 possession for each team, tough to cover 7 that way

Tulane doing their best to shorten the game, guessing the 2nd half they'll have to pick it up
 
KJ said:
Well there was only 1 possession for each team, tough to cover 7 that way

Tulane doing their best to shorten the game, guessing the 2nd half they'll have to pick it up
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well yea, that them being sluggish letting tulane get several 1st downs to start the game.. their d supposed to come out and get the damn ball!!
 
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