ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 9

[TahoeLegend]

well yea, that them being sluggish letting tulane get several 1st downs to start the game.

I looked at Tulane right away when I saw that spread, but I thought I read the Tulane QB was in concussion protocol. I wasn't surprised because I've never seen a QB take a beating game after game like he does. He's a great QB, but I'm surprised he's still surviving. He must have taken at least two dozen crushing shots from the OU defense alone and it's the same every game

Is he playing today?

 

[KJ]

I looked at Tulane right away when I saw that spread, but I thought I read the Tulane QB was in concussion protocol. I wasn't surprised because I've never seen a QB take a beating game after game like he does. He's a great QB, but I'm surprised he's still surviving. He must have taken at least two dozen crushing shots from the OU defense alone and it's the same every game

Is he playing today?

Tulane QB today is his first start

 

[TahoeLegend]

I'm definitely adding N Dame, probably as ML, but might give 3 if I can find it. I'll bet it just before game time

Added K St on one parlay, save the other two for late games

Taking a hard look at CSU, Stanford, Auburn, Fresno St in the late games.

Anyone have any thoughts about any of those games?

 

[TahoeLegend]

Added N Dame ML

 

[TahoeLegend]

Added Fresno St and CSU in addition to N Dame ML

So four games going tonight SMU, N Dame, CSU, Fresno,

PS--Made CSU, Fresno my other two parlay picks

 

[TahoeLegend]

Ha! Just saw the highlights of the end of the Clemson game. Gambler killer of the year. Clock ran out with Clemson (-9) up up by four and Fla State with the ball.

Florida state tried a Stanford endless lateral play. On about the fifth lateral the ball hit the ground and bounced around and a Clemson guy picked it up, stumbled, fell into the end zone (his knee was probably down first, but they didn't bother to review it). Clemson covered, Fla State bettors lost a game they had won the entire first 59 minutes, 59.99999 seconds of the game

Brutal

 

[TahoeLegend]

Here's the final play of the Clemson/Florida St game. If you had Florida State you may not want to watch. You might kill youself.

It starts with a hook and ladder and the guy who catches the lateral wins the gold medal for unclear on the concept, not to mention the dumbest offensive player in the country. He has at LEAST 10 yards of green in front of him, only one Clemson guy with in 15 yards of him and a Fla St guy blocking that guy, but instead of taking the yardage he turns around and runs backwards 10 yards just to find a guy to lateral to.

The the carnage begins

WATCH: Florida State final-play blunder vs. Clemson creates worst bad beat of week for bettors

The Seminoles (+9.5) were down four before allowing a clock-expiring fumble return touchdown on a failed lateral attempt

www.cbssports.com

 

[s--k]

Ironic we had the bad team discussion this week. Was certainly a very bad week for bad teams. Especially at 3:30-6:00 kickoff window.

Anybody is free to play and make their cases. But really, if you are a serious handicapper or picker on TV or radio, you can not tell people Kansas. Stanford Steve! It torpedoes the credibility. Now I'm here saying this after the fact, after the result is known, but Tahoe would say it before the fact. Steve went 4-1 overall (Clemson!) so he can shrud off the Kansas pick. Although when SVP asked him for one play, ONE play Thursday night on Sportscenter, he said Kansas.

 

[s--k]

Bill Trocci— Week 9 (0-0) Season (11-13)
Michigan State
Miami (Fla)
Virginia Tech

Great run of +money ML picks there

 

[TahoeLegend]

Great run of +money ML picks there

One of the best I've seen. And some of their losses are because of the peculiar way they have styled the rules of their contest. They get more points if they pick a bigger dog and the contest is scored on how many points they get, not how much money they would have won or their W/L record

In some weeks they pick bigger dogs than a ML bettor would because they want more points.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Ironic we had the bad team discussion this week. Was certainly a very bad week for bad teams.

I have no idea how Steve came up with such a dumb idea. You're right, it destroys his credibility. I think I know what he was thinking. Oklahoma State will come out flat--like every team that plays Kansas does--and they don't score a lot anyway so I'll take the 30+.

But it's as impossible to predict the once or, if you're lucky, twice a year a really bad team covers as it is to walk up to a craps table and predict when the the shooter is going to roll an eleven, so you don't bet on Kansas in a game like that, you just avoid betting Okla State

I appreciate you guys questioning the theory though. The only way you discover if there is a flaw in a mathematics model is if someone questions it.

But I know there are no flaws in the danger of betting loser teams. The numbers have been the same every year for decades. Styles of play may change, new offensive and defensive schemes come and go, but the numbers never change when it comes to bad teams--it's always a bad week for bettors who put their money on bad teams