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Wake @ NCST: 2nd longest rivalry in the country (did not know this). Homecoming for NCST. Wake has won 4 of last 5. Last 2 meetings - points galore. NCST 1-6 ATS against FBS this year. NCST has a 15 game home winning streak going back to 2020, 1 shy of their 16 straight home victories '72-'75 (Lou Holtz). Wake turned ball over 8 times last week vs Ville. Powers says this time of year he looks for "outliers" and "overreactions" and chalks up Wake's 8 turnovers last week as outlier and he's "looking to play Wake." Insider indicates "there's a reason this line opened -3 and we are now -4.5." History in series suggest NCST has hard time defending this mesh offense. Insider skeptical of NCST QB play. "Not a ton of talent on Wake defense...out of top 80 agst rush and pass." Powers bet the "Under on the open 57.5...even considering the freshman, Morris at QB for NCST looks like a significant upgrade over Chambers....but have some conflict here b/c I also laid the points with Wake and thinks with Total trending lower that may indicate that the style of play may be such NCST can compete in this game. Now Powers thinks he may buy back on the Over. Powers suggested NCST may be fortunate to have 6 wins thus far (Insider indicated his agreement): "Post game win expectancy for NCST was 3.8", another reason he took Wake.
Summary - NCST home win and Over the total has some recency expectations, but metrics suggest Wake covers. Over might be a play if it is around 53. I am seeing 54 currently. Powers bet Under 57.5 at the open.
FlaSt @ Miami: This is Insider's alma mater. Second time this year Miami is an underdog (?). Miami has underachieved. Last year's win for FlaSt ended a 4 game cover streak for Canes. Cristobal has told his team that this game is one of the reasons you signed to play with Miami and Miami Herald has actually put out an article asking fans to show up for the game. Insider says the rivalry is the tricky part of handicapping this game - this is Miami's Super Bowl, but match-up is "not great for Miami on paper." FlaSt Oline is questionable, but they lead the country in drives of 80+ yards or more. "FlaSt is wildly explosive" on offense. "Miami defense has been good 'down to down' and the Dline is the best part of entire team, but you can absolutely gash them thru the air...outside top 100 in explosive defense and yards allowed via pass." "If FSU can keep Travis upright there will yards thru the air...FSU receivers are deep/good....4th best in country." Insider thinks Norvell has some offense that they have yet to show", including Travis running. "The 2 teams are polar opposites on SOS, FSU has faced borderline top 10 schedule, Miami out of top 75 [per respected bettors]." Miami has not really beat anybody. Insider thinks Van Dyke playing for Miami is questionable, but thinks that he could help. Miami O coordinator is not liked by Insider, but he has "moved to the sidelines" and this move was mocked by Insider. Furhman says Miami PPG 101st in country, against Power 5 scored 17 pts per game and has not scored a rushing TD this year, 36% 3rd down conversion rate and allowed most pass plays of 30,40,50,60 and 80 yds in ACC. Powers ranks FSU #16 in his power ratings. Miami has been significantly downgraded. Miami has not covered a game all season agst FBS. "I am part of the FSU money at 7....and I'd lay 7.5."
Summary: They do not give Miami much of a chance except for fact this is rivalry.
Baylor @ OU: Baylor in control of their conference destiny. Powers has Baylor at #18 in his power ratings and OU downgraded. He notes OU missed Gabriel on O and Billy Bowman on D in some games. Powers seems to attribute Baylor's loss to WVa to Shapen going out in the game. Powers thinks Baylor may still "be flying under the radar." Furman - OU run gives up close to 190 a game and one of major weakness - goes over Kansas, Texas, TCU and KSt games as examples of major run defense problems. Insider "this game is one of the toughest to assess." Insider skeptical of Baylor "easy to gravitate to Baylor but they have played 2 ranked teams at time of game and lost both games." They beat TxTech by the margin they did largely due to turnovers and exploiting a freshman QB. He agrees that OU has major problems agst run and Baylor in top 15 in metrics agst the run. Powers' this game is one he has least feel" but his skepticism towards Baylor has kept him away from the 3.5.
Summary: Powers likes Baylor, Insider skeptical. All seem to agree that Baylor best chance is run success.
UH @ SMU: Powers says
"Lay the 3 with SMU." Starts out with SOS favors SMU. He says "SMU screams some value...and line will climb higher." Powers thinks Holgerson is a negative and mocks him says "anytime you can find value agst Holgerson, I feel pretty good." Insider says "It does not take much for me to want to fade Dana Holgerson." Insider has not bet it, he also expects line to close higher than 3. Indicates "Brad may have sold me and may bet SMU."
Summary - Left no doubt where they stand. They expect sharp money to come in on SMU and number to rise. I bet U.H. initially and feeling bad now.
Vols @ GA: 2002 last time they met in Top 10 match-up. Contrast in styles. Vols 5-3 to the Over Ga 6-2 to the Under. Insider: "From a pure powers #, I show some value to GA, but my instincts are that GA defense might be a tick overrated, made me a little bit nervous. Hard not to love Vol O...But, Vols could have lost to Pitt and trailing Bama by 7 late in game and phantom interference call allowed them to win." Insider thinks pro bettors are going to take a stand on GA and sharps are wanting to fade Vols, public cannot get enuf of the Vols. Would not surprise me to see this decision become the biggest for the books to date." Powers sounds very skeptical about the offenses GA has faced - Insider totally agrees. Insider thinks "style and speed of play for Vols is very impt. Kirby is not going to be able to sub in D players like he likes to." Powers is impressed with Vols pass defense, thinks GA will utilize the run and ultimately the game will be won/lost based on Stetson Bennett's performance and turnovers. GA has to put points on the board to win and Powers has his doubts. Powers power numbers say "bet Ga, but I have not gone to the window yet." Insider: "If Vols pass D plays like they did last week, we can all pack it in b/c they are going to run the table." But, Powers and Insider think Will Levis is not as good as believed and his draft status will fall...his ints last week came with clean pockets. Insider thinks Stetson this year "has been mostly very good." Concerns about GA wide out receiving corp - best tight ends in country. Insider, like Powers, thinks GA will probably have success on the ground.
Summary - They seem to want to bet GA but cannot force themselves to do it -8. For me, sounds like they know
"GA is the 'sharp play' but cannot pull the trigger." They have not bet Vols either.
Bama @ LSU: Bama has beaten LSU in 10 of last 11. Saban 12-4 agst LSU and 2-0 vs Kelly. Kelly has said this game "Is not pressure its a privilege" to play this game.
Powers "you can make a case LSU has improved on O better than any team in country." Daniels getting respect from these guys, hard to ignore this. Daniels playing like a top 10 QB in country. Last time LSU scored 2 consecutive games was with Joe Burrows. LSU off the bye, a positive factor. But, Saban has been good agst pro-style offenses. Powers concerned re pre-snap penalties for Bama and particularly for O line and may be continuing problem this weekend in Baton Rouge. Insider has questions on LSU O line. He thinks Bama D will get pressure on Daniels. On the other side, he thinks Young may "shred" LSU secondary and Bama can run agst LSU which will open up the pass game for Bama. Conversely, if LSU can stop the run then they have a chance. BAMA receiving group not stellar but on the rise as year progresses. Powers thinks line going to -14, he bet Bama -12 on Sunday b/c of the line value and said he'd figure out later. Insider " I initially leaned LSU but when he dug into the match-up he did not love it." He thinks line will remain below -14.
Summary: May be Insider's last quote above:
"I initially leaned LSU but when I dug into the match-up I did not love it."
Clemson @ ND: ND 3-0 ATS agst AP ranked opponents. Powers (kinda considered a ND expert) has no confidence ND can throw the ball and keep Clemson off balance. He thinks Pine is not good (my words) and Clemson front 7 is clearly superior to all prior opponents. Sounds very definite on inability of ND to move ball on Clemson. Insider says there is evidently 1 pro bettor taking ND and keeping line at 4 or lower. He thinks only chance ND has is to run and sounds doubtful they can do it...bases that on Clemson's games agst FSU and Cuse. Insider thinks "ND defense has been living a lie, you can bully them in the trenches." (Marshall and UNLV did it). Trenches favor Clemson on both sides and particularly in inclement weather. Powers took Clemson.
Summary: They don't give ND a chance in Hell. Powers' only positive is to wish for a better recruiting class and a portal QB.
Bet of the Week: Last week's Mizzu was ez win.
This week it is Texas Longhorns -2.5. Insider really like this. FWIW I just bet it too.
