I was thinking the Over 61...it now 61.5 and I think it opened around 63.How did you see it @bones ? I didn’t notice if you posted your lean on it I try not to pay attention till after I look at myself then after I like to get others feedback
I was thinking the Over 61...it now 61.5 and I think it opened around 63.
My thought is Arkansas seems to regularly perform better than expected and wears down their opponents (at least parts of games I have seen). Ark O has performed well, or relatively well, agst everyone except A&M Messy. Figured them for 35-40. I just wonder how many TDs will get?
I think I will bet it Live if given the opportunity. I also might be biased, b/c I have made $$ on Razorbacks last 2 weeks
Spent a night looking at lines for the first set of matches, started that thread a couple weeks ago. T-minus 15 days til it kicks off!WC approaching quickly, gonna be counting on you for some action, at least keep my head above water bro!! I dunno How you do w soccer but im gonna want WC action and no time to learn to cap that!
Its back up with UTSA -1 againMy UTSA/UAB game was just taken off the board...I'm sure it will be back up. Going to investigate this
* nothing I cud find. worried about UTSA O line in this one
Looks like I will lose this one. Its hard to ignore steamUk now damn +1 when I got up here and bet them. I don’t get it, I’m a little worried someone hurt? I mean if it just mizzou money bring it on cause I don’t get it
Uk now damn +1 when I got up here and bet them. I don’t get it, I’m a little worried someone hurt? I mean if it just mizzou money bring it on cause I don’t get it
That game was a mystery from the first day the line came out and is even more of a mystery now.Looks like I will lose this one. Its hard to ignore steam
Post your second half picks when you have time, BonesI was thinking the Over 61...it now 61.5 and I think it opened around 63.
My thought is Arkansas seems to regularly perform better than expected and wears down their opponents (at least parts of games I have seen). Ark O has performed well, or relatively well, agst everyone except A&M Messy. Figured them for 35-40. I just wonder how many TDs will get?
I think I will bet it Live if given the opportunity. I also might be biased, b/c I have made $$ on Razorbacks last 2 weeks
gotta love them hanging a service academy total in the 40s lmao. easy moneyThis another one those days I like a lot but almost all at night., couple at 11, 1 or 2 at 2:30, then 6-7-8 at night!! Lol.,fuck, I hate that it so hard for me to remain patient and not start betting extra stuff I don’t really think I have as good a edge!! Lol.
Anyways my only early’s games are
Af/army un 40.5
Uk-1
Achane ov 103.5 rush yards
above Post 157Post your second half picks when you have time, Bones
You've been money the last few weeks on your halftime bets
I'll tell yu I just added WVA ML Live +253Post your second half picks when you have time, Bones
You've been money the last few weeks on your halftime bets
gotta love them hanging a service academy total in the 40s lmao. easy money
yea he's out. i hit over 114.5 kinda big :/So why is Hammond doing all the running, is Abanikanda out? I swear every time I play a pit rb a different back gets the touches, he gotta be out out doesn’t he? Not one touch yet?
yea he's out. i hit over 114.5 kinda big :/
@2daBank You called the ARK game...thank you for answering my question and keeping me off it
On my UH ML wager, had you told me in advance they'd score 63, I'd make wager again. Yet, they were only in it at 21-21 and shortly thereafter
let's keep this is mind.Had several totals pegged I didn’t play. The Uga/vols under, the 1st half under in ark: I did hit the jmu:ville under and jmu team total under was spot on, ville d is no joke. Clemson gonna have another very tough time scoring next week.
let's keep this is mind.
clemson line never really budged off 3.5, knew that was the wrong side
Sorry I missed this. Did ok today 11-8 +4.5 units (57.9%). My top two plays New Mexico and Tulsa were unlucky at the end.Which games are you looking at this weekend. Anything special you like?
Unit P&L | Win | Loss | Push | Win % | |
Overall | 65 | 157 | 102 | 6 | 60.62% |
CFB Spread Record | 15.5 | 88 | 67 | 3 | 56.77% |
CFB Totals Record | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 66.67% |
NFL Spread Record | 42 | 50 | 26 | 2 | 65.79% |
NFL Totals Record | 3.5 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 68.75% |
12-11on above. I actually won 1.75 units. I had 2 wagers I did not get in thread. LSU Over 24 2H and NCST +6.5 Live...ticket says I bet it at 8:22 pm CST, I think it was 2nd qtr.I will post my bets here - just for grins - as I have done last couple of weeks. I may not get to the LIVE or 2H wagers until well after I make them or at end of day (you just have to trust me). Having a pretty decent year, for me, in NCAA and have so far avoided the disaster Saturday I almost always have. Was 0-3 last week on my initial wagers. This week my initial wagers were KY, UTSA, UCLA and the UH ML. Can I go 0-4?
I have bad lines for some.
Air Force -7 LOSE
Kentucky -1.5 (now pick) WIN
MD +5 LOSE
UTSA -1 (now pick) WIN
Tenny +8 (now 9) LOSE
UH ML - (Bet the Board says I am out of my mind. UH usually tries hard to beat the Ponies) LOSE - writing this after 1H
Longhorns -2.5 WIN
FlaST -7 (played this at -125) WIN
Wake -4 (wagered a little extra on this one, not a lot, but a little) LOSE
UCLA -11 (I see where "The Bear" has selected AZST this a,m,) WIN
A 1 unit ML parlay FlaSt/Wake/Clemson pays a little over 2:1
Really want to bet Iowa....but I have Purdue RSW Under 7.5 so have that interest (wish I had pulled trigger)
Added WKY -14 -120 right before ko based entirely on Brassknucks write up
ADDS:
WKY -14 (its 35-0 as I type) WIN
Under 19.5 2H in AF/Navy (AF just got TD 10-7 game, 7-0 2H) WIN
Tulane -7 just b4 KO WIN
Under 34.5 Iowa-Purdue Live WIN
Under 20.5 1H GaTech/VaTech 1H (score 10-7 with over 6 minutes left 1H....just lost this one)LOSE
WISKY -3 2H (MD had around 60 yds O 1H) LOSE
Navy +18.5 WIN
OVER 65.5 Tenny/GA LOSE
WVA ML+254 LIVE LOSE
Wazzu 2H +.5 WIN
1H Michigan -14.5 LOSE - of all the wagers Ive made today this one makes me maddest. Wolverines score a quick 7 and thereafter Rutgers blocked punt score etc.
MissSt-12.5 LOSE (Leach needs to retire and go do stand up)
FlaSt 2H -2.5 WIN
Mich -25.5 Live WIN
UNDER 57.5 CAL/USC LIVE LOSE
Have not done this all year, but thought I wud quickly grade their performance in re the results.Landing Page - Bet The Board Podcast
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Wake @ NCST: 2nd longest rivalry in the country (did not know this). Homecoming for NCST. Wake has won 4 of last 5. Last 2 meetings - points galore. NCST 1-6 ATS against FBS this year. NCST has a 15 game home winning streak going back to 2020, 1 shy of their 16 straight home victories '72-'75 (Lou Holtz). Wake turned ball over 8 times last week vs Ville. Powers says this time of year he looks for "outliers" and "overreactions" and chalks up Wake's 8 turnovers last week as outlier and he's "looking to play Wake." Insider indicates "there's a reason this line opened -3 and we are now -4.5." History in series suggest NCST has hard time defending this mesh offense. Insider skeptical of NCST QB play. "Not a ton of talent on Wake defense...out of top 80 agst rush and pass." Powers bet the "Under on the open 57.5...even considering the freshman, Morris at QB for NCST looks like a significant upgrade over Chambers....but have some conflict here b/c I also laid the points with Wake and thinks with Total trending lower that may indicate that the style of play may be such NCST can compete in this game. Now Powers thinks he may buy back on the Over. Powers suggested NCST may be fortunate to have 6 wins thus far (Insider indicated his agreement): "Post game win expectancy for NCST was 3.8", another reason he took Wake.
Summary - NCST home win and Over the total has some recency expectations, but metrics suggest Wake covers. Over might be a play if it is around 53. I am seeing 54 currently. Powers bet Under 57.5 at the open.
FlaSt @ Miami: This is Insider's alma mater. Second time this year Miami is an underdog (?). Miami has underachieved. Last year's win for FlaSt ended a 4 game cover streak for Canes. Cristobal has told his team that this game is one of the reasons you signed to play with Miami and Miami Herald has actually put out an article asking fans to show up for the game. Insider says the rivalry is the tricky part of handicapping this game - this is Miami's Super Bowl, but match-up is "not great for Miami on paper." FlaSt Oline is questionable, but they lead the country in drives of 80+ yards or more. "FlaSt is wildly explosive" on offense. "Miami defense has been good 'down to down' and the Dline is the best part of entire team, but you can absolutely gash them thru the air...outside top 100 in explosive defense and yards allowed via pass." "If FSU can keep Travis upright there will yards thru the air...FSU receivers are deep/good....4th best in country." Insider thinks Norvell has some offense that they have yet to show", including Travis running. "The 2 teams are polar opposites on SOS, FSU has faced borderline top 10 schedule, Miami out of top 75 [per respected bettors]." Miami has not really beat anybody. Insider thinks Van Dyke playing for Miami is questionable, but thinks that he could help. Miami O coordinator is not liked by Insider, but he has "moved to the sidelines" and this move was mocked by Insider. Furhman says Miami PPG 101st in country, against Power 5 scored 17 pts per game and has not scored a rushing TD this year, 36% 3rd down conversion rate and allowed most pass plays of 30,40,50,60 and 80 yds in ACC. Powers ranks FSU #16 in his power ratings. Miami has been significantly downgraded. Miami has not covered a game all season agst FBS. "I am part of the FSU money at 7....and I'd lay 7.5."
Summary: They do not give Miami much of a chance except for fact this is rivalry.
Baylor @ OU: Baylor in control of their conference destiny. Powers has Baylor at #18 in his power ratings and OU downgraded. He notes OU missed Gabriel on O and Billy Bowman on D in some games. Powers seems to attribute Baylor's loss to WVa to Shapen going out in the game. Powers thinks Baylor may still "be flying under the radar." Furman - OU run gives up close to 190 a game and one of major weakness - goes over Kansas, Texas, TCU and KSt games as examples of major run defense problems. Insider "this game is one of the toughest to assess." Insider skeptical of Baylor "easy to gravitate to Baylor but they have played 2 ranked teams at time of game and lost both games." They beat TxTech by the margin they did largely due to turnovers and exploiting a freshman QB. He agrees that OU has major problems agst run and Baylor in top 15 in metrics agst the run. Powers' this game is one he has least feel" but his skepticism towards Baylor has kept him away from the 3.5.
Summary: Powers likes Baylor, Insider skeptical. All seem to agree that Baylor best chance is run success.
UH @ SMU: Powers says "Lay the 3 with SMU." Starts out with SOS favors SMU. He says "SMU screams some value...and line will climb higher." Powers thinks Holgerson is a negative and mocks him says "anytime you can find value agst Holgerson, I feel pretty good." Insider says "It does not take much for me to want to fade Dana Holgerson." Insider has not bet it, he also expects line to close higher than 3. Indicates "Brad may have sold me and may bet SMU."
Summary - Left no doubt where they stand. They expect sharp money to come in on SMU and number to rise. I bet U.H. initially and feeling bad now.
Vols @ GA: 2002 last time they met in Top 10 match-up. Contrast in styles. Vols 5-3 to the Over Ga 6-2 to the Under. Insider: "From a pure powers #, I show some value to GA, but my instincts are that GA defense might be a tick overrated, made me a little bit nervous. Hard not to love Vol O...But, Vols could have lost to Pitt and trailing Bama by 7 late in game and phantom interference call allowed them to win." Insider thinks pro bettors are going to take a stand on GA and sharps are wanting to fade Vols, public cannot get enuf of the Vols. Would not surprise me to see this decision become the biggest for the books to date." Powers sounds very skeptical about the offenses GA has faced - Insider totally agrees. Insider thinks "style and speed of play for Vols is very impt. Kirby is not going to be able to sub in D players like he likes to." Powers is impressed with Vols pass defense, thinks GA will utilize the run and ultimately the game will be won/lost based on Stetson Bennett's performance and turnovers. GA has to put points on the board to win and Powers has his doubts. Powers power numbers say "bet Ga, but I have not gone to the window yet." Insider: "If Vols pass D plays like they did last week, we can all pack it in b/c they are going to run the table." But, Powers and Insider think Will Levis is not as good as believed and his draft status will fall...his ints last week came with clean pockets. Insider thinks Stetson this year "has been mostly very good." Concerns about GA wide out receiving corp - best tight ends in country. Insider, like Powers, thinks GA will probably have success on the ground.
Summary - They seem to want to bet GA but cannot force themselves to do it -8. For me, sounds like they know "GA is the 'sharp play' but cannot pull the trigger." They have not bet Vols either.
Bama @ LSU: Bama has beaten LSU in 10 of last 11. Saban 12-4 agst LSU and 2-0 vs Kelly. Kelly has said this game "Is not pressure its a privilege" to play this game.
Powers "you can make a case LSU has improved on O better than any team in country." Daniels getting respect from these guys, hard to ignore this. Daniels playing like a top 10 QB in country. Last time LSU scored 2 consecutive games was with Joe Burrows. LSU off the bye, a positive factor. But, Saban has been good agst pro-style offenses. Powers concerned re pre-snap penalties for Bama and particularly for O line and may be continuing problem this weekend in Baton Rouge. Insider has questions on LSU O line. He thinks Bama D will get pressure on Daniels. On the other side, he thinks Young may "shred" LSU secondary and Bama can run agst LSU which will open up the pass game for Bama. Conversely, if LSU can stop the run then they have a chance. BAMA receiving group not stellar but on the rise as year progresses. Powers thinks line going to -14, he bet Bama -12 on Sunday b/c of the line value and said he'd figure out later. Insider " I initially leaned LSU but when he dug into the match-up he did not love it." He thinks line will remain below -14.
Summary: May be Insider's last quote above: "I initially leaned LSU but when I dug into the match-up I did not love it."
Clemson @ ND: ND 3-0 ATS agst AP ranked opponents. Powers (kinda considered a ND expert) has no confidence ND can throw the ball and keep Clemson off balance. He thinks Pine is not good (my words) and Clemson front 7 is clearly superior to all prior opponents. Sounds very definite on inability of ND to move ball on Clemson. Insider says there is evidently 1 pro bettor taking ND and keeping line at 4 or lower. He thinks only chance ND has is to run and sounds doubtful they can do it...bases that on Clemson's games agst FSU and Cuse. Insider thinks "ND defense has been living a lie, you can bully them in the trenches." (Marshall and UNLV did it). Trenches favor Clemson on both sides and particularly in inclement weather. Powers took Clemson.
Summary: They don't give ND a chance in Hell. Powers' only positive is to wish for a better recruiting class and a portal QB.
Bet of the Week: Last week's Mizzu was ez win. This week it is Texas Longhorns -2.5. Insider really like this. FWIW I just bet it too.
Travis went 4-7Last week we went 7-4, reversing the picks jinx and, frankly, nearly doing even better as we lost two of these four bets by a half point and another on a last second score by TCU to cover the number.Clay Travis' Outkick College Football Gambling Picks For Week 10, 2022
Clay Travis makes his gambling picks for Tennessee-Georgia, Clemson-Notre Dame, Alabama-LSU and more.www.outkick.com
KY @ Mizzu +2.5 and Under 41.5 WIN/WIN
I absolutely love the under in this game.
MD +5 @ Wisky LOSE
Maryland might be the least respected team in the Big Ten. Did you know the Terps are 6-2?
Minny @ Neb +16 WIN
We all know how this game ends, with Nebraska losing in brutal heartrending fashion after an inexcusable late collapse.
But they cover.
Tenny +8.5 @ GA LOSE
If this game were in Neyland, I’d be 100% confident the Vols win. But going on the road against the defending national champs and winning in their stadium doesn’t happen very often.
OKSt-2.5 @ KU LOSE
Okay, we got a woodshed gambling beating last week, but I think the Cowboys show up with a great deal of pride this week at Kansas.
Liberty @ Ark Over 63 LOSE
This is the second game I absolutely love on the ticket this week.
Bama @ LSU +13.5 WIN
Alabama has been pretty wobbly on the road so far this year. Barely winning at Texas, losing at Tennessee, in fact, other than the Arkansas game, Bama has been pretty rough on the road for much of the past two years
Auburn @ Messy -12.5 LOSE
I think this is going to be a complete and total bloodbatch in StarkVegas.
Clemson -3.5 @ ND LOSE
Until Notre Dame pulls off a win like this under Marcus Freeman, I’m not going to believe they can do it.
SoCar @ Vandy +7 LOSE
I know Vanderbilt isn’t good, but the Commodores were competitive on the road at Mizzou and then hit their bye week with two weeks to prepare for a South Carolina team that just lost a tough one at home to Mizzou and isn’t very good offensively.
So I’ve got two SEC infused parlays for y’all this weekend:
- UK-Mizzou under 41.5
- Liberty at Arkansas over 63
- LSU +13.5
- UK-Mizzou under 41.5
- Liberty at Arkansas over 63
- LSU +13.5
- Tennessee +8.5
- Mississippi State -13
- Vandy +7
NCSU is a different team with Morris at QB. Kinda mind-boggling that they pretended that Chambers was the #2 QB after Leary went down. He has another warm-up game against Boston College, then will face Louisville and UNC.Have not done this all year, but thought I wud quickly grade their performance in re the results.
Wake@NCST C- They did not completely discount NCST, but generally this was a miss. NCST did set a new home game win streak with the victory
I saw b4 the game that you were betting NCST...it made me think. That's one of the reasons I added NCST +6.5 Live after what I was seeingNCSU is a different team with Morris at QB. Kinda mind-boggling that they pretended that Chambers was the #2 QB after Leary went down. He has another warm-up game against Boston College, then will face Louisville and UNC.
Well, I bet some NCSU props and their team total, but I also bet the game team total (which lost). I did not have any straight NCSU bets.I saw b4 the game that you were betting NCST...it made me think. That's one of the reasons I added NCST +6.5 Live after what I was seeing
I saw whatever you siad and it made me question the Wake bet....you made some comment in some thread to someone who was betting NCSTWell, I bet some NCSU props and their team total, but I also bet the game team total (which lost). I did not have any straight NCSU bets.
Corrected itBender and DeCourcy 11-19 overall isn't bad for those ML pickers depending on the odds they won over that span. Hitting a dog like LSU, you can lose a few games and still be in the black.
If Zac Al-Khateeb had Liberty ML it won straight up and he'd be 1-2 this week.
Corrected it
Do you know of any rule-of-thumb to use to determine if ML Dog pickers are in the black or not without doing the math on every game all year?
Tomorrow.Im ready to start rocking and rolling this week. We getting the week 11 thread up tonight @TahoeLegend ?