ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 10

TahoeLegend said:
Tomorrow.

No one releases their picks till Wednesday.

If you got anything good go ahead an post it on this thread. I may just copy yours this week after I did such a crappy job last week
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This card feels a bit anti climatic after the last couple fantastic weekends, there really isn’t a whole lot of intriguing games at 1st glance. It be nice if cuse would give any hint at all to whether Schrader be able to play, guess have to see if he practices this week. Fsu/cuse be a good one if he plays, might be able to justify cuse but no sense looking too deep into that game until/if we ever know if he will play? Without him noles prob win, with him I think cuse would almost assuredly cover.

Im assuming lsu-3 is taking the letdown into account cause they a lot more than 3 points better than arky with a banged up Jefferson imo. I don’t think Kelly will allow them to let down as they play better every week and now have the sec championship game in their sites!

Think I like ecu to beat cincy Friday night. Pretty much comes down to both teams good at getting pressure but ecu oline is fantastic at pass protection, Cincy not so much. Also a huge discrepancy in 3rd down efficiency for ecu.

Huskies/ducks be fun. Think gotta take the points with udub, 13.5 a lot. Little concerned Penix has had some bad road starts w turnovers.

Talked bout somewhere else but texas 1st half tcu 2nd makes way too much sense.


I think bama d will rise up like they did vs leech after their 1st loss. They don’t shut down kiffen like they do air raid but think this worst qb kiffen has had coming into this game. I just don’t like Dart much as a thrower, bama can take the run away, make him a passer and think ol miss will struggle. I dunno how to play it yet tho? Not sure I’m interested laying the points or not but only way I’d play be bama or sone version of ol miss under.

I was gonna stay up and do some more work
Tonight but man, I just don’t see a ton on this card that excites me. Maybe more will pop
Up as I go thru them one by one.
 
I guess call me a super square this week cause I’ll be pounding lsu once again! This is basically to go to the sec champ game, there will be no letdown imo. Far as I know Jefferson is banged up but whether he plays or not is just the difference in whether it a competitive game lsu wins or a easy lsu win imo. Look at last years game when arky was a better team and tigers were just playing out the season, 16-13 game! Maybe it shouldn’t tell me much but it tells me lsu defense has the goods to slow razorbacks run game down. Arky had a grand total of 13 1st downs in that game! So im pretty confident lsu defense can contain the arky offense.

On the other hand arky d is allowing 6.3 ypp which is 114th in the country! They not equipped to stop this lsu run game and they damn sure not equipped to handle Jayden Daniels who imo had developed into one the best qbs in the country! I dunno bout ya’ll but every time bama scored last week I said “don’t worry just means Daniels will answer”, I had no doubt every drive against freaking bama he was gonna get it done, it pretty dang rare for me to say that confidently. I believed lsu was gonna win the entire time cause I believed Daniels would make every play they needed him to. How the hell mel kyper continues to gush over that scrub playing qb for uk while ignoring this kid on his big board is beyond me. Daniels is the real deal, dynamic as a playmaker/runner but also getting better and better as a passer. Leads me to one my favorite sayings “coaching matters!” , it’s amazing how far this kid has come in a year with a great coach after he appeared to just be another squandered talent toiling away into mediocrity playing for that turd Herm Edwards!! This kid is next level good, I’ll keep banging the drum for Brian Kelly being one the best coaches in college fb, the minute he was announced as lsu coach I said they would win multiple natty’s and I have no doubt that gonna be true. Look how much better this team has got game after game in year 1! I don’t believe for w minute his kids gonna let down with a trip to the sec championship in their sites!! Sure feels like oddsmakers think they will cause this line silly. Seriously, lsu should be damn near -10 on a neutral, give arky 3-4-5 points for home field and this line still way short, anything less than -7 crazy to me, I’m sure this gonna be square city but should I jump off the bandwagon I been on and been winning with just cause everyone sees it now? I don’t think so, Again coaching matters, this coach won’t have a letdown here. No letdown and this spread is just flat out wrong.
 
Agree with you all the way on LSU/Arkansas. The only thing that could keep this close is a let down from the Bama game and it's possible since Kelly is in his first year, but I don't see it with only UAB next game. Arkansas has regressed during the season, maybe because of injury.

And you are right on the money about Kelly. One of the best coaches in football. I've won more money on him than on any coach. He's built championship teams over and over at school after school and I have no doubt he'll win a national title at LSU. And the best thing about him is that his teams get better from week to week during the season

I've gone against Ole Miss and won a couple of times for the reason you mention--Dart is not the level of QB Ole Miss had last year and teams are making him throw the ball. People are acting like Bama is having a bad year, but they've lost two games, both on the last play of the game, both on the road. On the other hand this one is on the road too so that seems like a lot of points.

If I had to play it I'd play Bama, but will likely pass just because of laying that many points on the road. The only game Bama has covered on the road is Arkansas and a lot of that was luck. They were up two in the fourth quarter and backed up with 4th and 18 in their own territory with a backup QB and Young out of the game. The backup goes back to pass, can't find a receiver, and breaks out for an 80 yard run. Then Gibbs breaks two 70-yard runs on the next two possessions.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Agree with you all the way on LSU/Arkansas. The only thing that could keep this close is a let down from the Bama game and it's possible since Kelly is in his first year, but I don't see it with only UAB next game. Arkansas has regressed during the season, maybe because of injury.

And you are right on the money about Kelly. One of the best coaches in football. I've won more money on him than on any coach. He's built championship teams over and over at school after school and I have no doubt he'll win a national title at LSU. And the best thing about him is that his teams get better from week to week during the season

I've gone against Ole Miss and won a couple of times for the reason you mention--Dart is not the level of QB Ole Miss had last year and teams are making him throw the ball. People are acting like Bama is having a bad year, but they've lost two games, both on the last play of the game, both on the road. On the other hand this one is on the road too so that seems like a lot of points.

If I had to play it I'd play Bama, but will likely pass just because of laying that many points on the road. The only game Bama has covered on the road is Arkansas and a lot of that was luck. They were up two in the fourth quarter and backed up with 4th and 18 in their own territory with a backup QB and Young out of the game. The backup goes back to pass, can't find a receiver, and breaks out for an 80 yard run. Then Gibbs breaks two 70-yard runs on the next two possessions.
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I’ll prob pass on bama also, I’m not a big fan of laying bunch of points anywhere, I just think they prob the right side, feel like ppl gonna buy into ol miss hype and be down on bama, as you said the losses wernt exactly bad, it took a lot of things going right for vols to beat them and last week was just a hell of a game. It pretty much impossible to know how bama responds since I can’t remember last time they played a game where they didn’t have playoff aspersions, I could see that going either way, angry pride or just not the same kind of juice. I lean to the 1st but who knows? I think it be crazy to take less points with ol miss than they gave us with a better lsu team, remember Saban owns kiffen who often does his worst coaching job of the year when they meet!!


I think ecu beats cincy, love they got a week off to prep for this after a few big upset wins while cincy was having to deal w navy who never fun to play. Lot of kids on this ecu team have to have a bad taste from all the ass kickings they have taken from cincy last several years while bearcats were on top. This the year the talent level isn’t out of whack. Both teams get after the qb but ecu line protects Ahlers about as well as any team in the country where as cincy gets Bryant sacked quite a bit. Thing this game might be as simple as which team gets pressure/which keeps the qb clean and I think ecu wins in this department. Ecu is also one the best in the country converting 3rd downs and cincy allows teams to pick them up at a very high rate for a team who gets as much pressure as them. I think ecu gives Ahlers more time, possesses the ball more and avenges a bunch of butt kickings on Friday night. Both defenses really good in the red zone so the points might be valuable as I do think it a close game but I think ecu wins.
 
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