ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 10

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Like Stanford Steve's first four (USC lost their WR who was by far their best offensive player) , not so sure about laying the points on the road with the last two. Wish Bear (his picks are with the D-League pickers now, lower down on the thread) hadn't take BC and aTM, but maybe those will be the two of six he wins.

Desmond Howard continues to lead the Super Dog pickers and should be 7-2. He got burned by the worst Gambler Killer of the year in the Clemson/Florida State game

Stanford Steve— Week 10 (0-0) Season (26-22) Best Bet (3-2) 2020 Season (32-27)
Alabama -28.5
Boston College +3
Clemson -4
Arizona State -8.5
Penn State -10
Utah -7.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 10 (0-0) Season (33-26) 2020 Season (42-39)
TCU (+6.5)
Purdue (+3)
Memphis (+4.5)
W. Virginia (+3.5)
Washington (+7)
Nebraska (+15)
Tulsa (+22.5)
San Jose St (+10)

Greg McElroy— Week 10 (0-0) Season (14-13)
ULL/Ga State u 53x
Oregon/Wash u 51
NC State -2x

Phil Steele-- Week 10 (0-0) Season (33-31) 2020 Season (27-40)
A Force/Army u 37
Miami -10x
Nevada -10x
New Mexico St +18x
Iowa -12
Purdue +3
UMass -2

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 9 (0-0) Season (19-27) 2020 Season (35-37)
Baltimore (-6)
Dallas (-9.5)
Atlanta (+6.5)
NYG (+3)
SF (-1)

My Picks— Week 10 (0-0) Season (34-22) 2020 Season (48-31)
Oklahoma St -3
Texas A&M -4
BC +3 (always bet them in Red Bandana game)
W Forest/N Caro o 77
Okla State ML
Purdue +3
Kentucky +1x

Betting Bama for sure, just deciding on game, half, quarter or what, maybe all of them, strong lean Wake Forest over quarter, half, and game, lean Purdue, Kentucky, Washington, Arkansas, leaned to Baylor and Utah even though I hate laying points on the road, but Utah line got away from me (Circa had it -7x on their app and in the time it took me to punch it in it jumped to 9) and I’ll wait till game time on Baylor. Slight lean to Clemson

Dropped Arkansas. Must have been stoned when I looked at that line because I thought I read Arkansas was getting points

Passed on Baylor, line got away from me. Strong lean Purdue, Kentucky, lean to Clemson

Gameday Super Dog Pick, Season Record
Desmond—6-3
Kirk—6-3
Lee—5-3-1
Reece—5-4
David—4-5
 
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see this my problem with bear, half the time he talking bout how he playing a team because everyone on the oppo side and he smarter than the masses. then he turns around and takes wake, not that i disagree but does it get any more "square/public" than taking the #9 team in the country as dogs to a unranked team? at least SVP is consistent, this guy all over the place!!

i guess i shouldnt be surprised wake is dogs here, they were only 3 point favs to army so clearly they not getting a ton of respect from the powers that be. i expected to see a lot these espn types on unc but guess it could still happen.. sure didnt expect bear on wake, have to hear what he says on the podcast, if they talk about the games and not his travel schedule for a change!! lol
 
dunno why hale screwing with a side in the army/af game? he got the right idea with the under, playing under in the service academy games a long standing tradition for me!! love them games, running games and defense, the clock never stops!!
 
Eric Antrobus said:
How do these guys get jobs on television?? We beat them consistently.
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I give them props. Not all them cause don’t even know who some are but I’m not gonna throw salt for them finding a way to make a living doing my favorite hobby!! I don’t really watch or follow any of them but more power to them finding a way to get paid for this!! There are a few real good podcast i like but that bout it. The TV shows corny as shit and way better info and knowledge being passed around these places but seems to be working out for them!!
 
There is just so so many people picking games now. I scroll down through the picks Tahoe posts, but we know there countless people on some kind of platform, radio, podcast, twitter, etc all giving out picks and plays. LOL, remember the good old days when you had to find the Jack Price and Stu Finer guys on TV for hot take picks? Now every single TV channel has them. It's to the point that, so many that, it doesn't mean anything. We might all have a guy (or gal) we kind of value their opinion, but the simple fact that there are so many "experts" giving picks, it waters it all down because there is no real authority, not real wise guy, when they all pretend to be the wise guy. Entertainment. Like all of it suppose.
 
Agreed. And I’d love to be on there picking games too. Most of us would surely beat them. I like Steve and SVP better than the others. Definitely don’t let them sway my opinion, though. Trust this board a lot more.
 
s--k said:
There is just so so many people picking games now. I scroll down through the picks Tahoe posts, but we know there countless people on some kind of platform, radio, podcast, twitter, etc all giving out picks and plays. LOL, remember the good old days when you had to find the Jack Price and Stu Finer guys on TV for hot take picks? Now every single TV channel has them. It's to the point that, so many that, it doesn't mean anything. We might all have a guy (or gal) we kind of value their opinion, but the simple fact that there are so many "experts" giving picks, it waters it all down because there is no real authority, not real wise guy, when they all pretend to be the wise guy. Entertainment. Like all of it suppose.
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I value some guys opinions on these forums way more than any the tv or whatever pickers.
 
2daBank said:
I value some guys opinions on these forums way more than any the tv or whatever pickers.
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Let's be honest, regardless the side you like in any sport, you'll always be able to find facts and trends that justify your choice. I really prefer the counterpoints that I could be overlooking for the other side. Basically that's why I'm not much into trend wagering, not to mention it tells a story of the past when this game is all about predicting what's next. The past is what's generally built into the line.

Man if we could just go on the theory that the past will continue to repeat itself, we'd all be rich and this would be our day job!
 
KJ said:
Let's be honest, regardless the side you like in any sport, you'll always be able to find facts and trends that justify your choice.
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I don't know about that. I still haven't found any basis for playing UT against Bama in 1996. That line remains one of life's great mysteries.
 
I think historical trends can point one in a certain direction, and while it can be a brick or two, it shouldn't be the foundation.
 
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KJ said:
Let's be honest, regardless the side you like in any sport, you'll always be able to find facts and trends that justify your choice. I really prefer the counterpoints that I could be overlooking for the other side. Basically that's why I'm not much into trend wagering, not to mention it tells a story of the past when this game is all about predicting what's next. The past is what's generally built into the line.

Man if we could just go on the theory that the past will continue to repeat itself, we'd all be rich and this would be our day job!
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i agree i prefer opposing views, i dont really need ppl to convince me my side is right, im plenty confident :)
 
lb49ers said:
Pam Maldonado

Miss St +180 ML
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i have been burnt with some sec unders this year so i make a funny face every time i bring this game up but 56 seems high for this matchup. maybe 1st half be better cause i have gotten away with few of those before freaking track meets break out in 2nd half!!! stylistically think this sets up nice for a under, arky plays a defense that should be tailor made to defend leach offense. ive been saying most the year it crazy but i think defense the strength of this leach squad. they been really stout vs the run and they dont give up a lot of explosive pass plays which basically the 2 things ark offense thrives off. Only concern is messy hasnt really played any qbs that run like Jefferson so i dunno how they will handle the qb running? both teams do a pretty good job limiting opposing teams amount of plays, last year this was a 21-14 game. Id think this looks a lot more like the ark/am game than some the high scoring games they have played lately..
 
ML DOG PICKERS:
Pamela Maldonado— Week 10 (0-0) Season (12-11)
Miss St
Bill Trocci— Week 10 (0-0) Season (14-13)
Auburn
Miss State
UTEP

Zac Al-Khateeb— Week 10 (0-0) Season (13-14)
Liberty
Maryland
Texas

Bill Bender-- Week 10 (0-0) Season (9-18)
Wake Forest
ULM
Miss State
 
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Posting the D-League Picks. Easy to see why they are in the D-League when you see their records. And Connelly is not even handicapping. He takes the line--an arbitrary number--compares it to the ESPN computer ranking data--another arbitrary number--and bets those games where the computer spread varies from the sportsbook line.

And, as any high school math student could predict, he has the same record as he would have throwing darts at an odds sheet.

ESPN D-League Pickers:

Tyler Fulghum—Season 12-11
Georgia -38
Georgia/Mizzou u 59.5
Kansas State -24

Joe Fortenbaugh—Season 18-18
Purdue +3
Auburn/Tex A&M u 50
Oregon/Washington u 51

Bill Connelly—Season 22-22
SMU/Memphis u 70.5
Notre Dame -20.5
Utah St/N Mex St u 71
Tennessee +1
Clemson -4

Doug Kezirian—Season 18-19
Iowa -12

David M. Hale—Season 12-14
Army + 2.5
Army/A Force u 37
Ole Miss 1st half -6.5
Virginia Tech -3

The Bear— Week 10 (0-0) Season (16-28) 2020 Season (25-21
Boston College +3
Florida State +2.5
Rutgers +13
Texas A&M -4.5
Georgia Tech +10
Oregon State -10.5
Bank Picks— Week 10 (0-0) (12-15)
 
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Why is Baylor laying less than 7 to tcu? What you think bout that game Tahoe? You seem to have better handle on Baylor than I do. I have done well facing tcu tho, can’t imagine it gets better with Patterson being fired this week. Bears have been better than I thought, I don’t wanna now jump on board and they lay a egg! Lol. They seem like a really well balanced offense tho, so they should be able to light tcu up.
 
2daBank said:
Why is Baylor laying less than 7 to tcu? What you think bout that game Tahoe? You seem to have better handle on Baylor than I do. I have done well facing tcu tho, can’t imagine it gets better with Patterson being fired this week. Bears have been better than I thought, I don’t wanna now jump on board and they lay a egg! Lol. They seem like a really well balanced offense tho, so they should be able to light tcu up.
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Baylor hasn't played on the road in over a month! Typically like them at home but not so much on the road, no clue what TCU does under Kill
 
2daBank said:
What you think bout that game Tahoe? You seem to have better handle on Baylor than I do.
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I suspect the line is so low because everyone sees Baylor played Texas at home last week and has Oklahoma at home next week. Baylor is still alive for the big 12 title and the championship game, so Oklahoma next week is gigantic for them. This week is a classic sandwich game for them.

Baylor playes know TCU is crap and just lost their coach so people are wondering what kind of effort they'll get from them

And I don't know if bookmakers consider this, but I suspect they do, and that is that Baylor is 5-1 SU and ATS in the conference and three straight wins ATS and SU. TCU is just the opposite, three straight losses ATS and SU, and 1 and 4 ATS and SU in conference. As Baylor gives more and more points and TCU gets more and more, sportsbooks get cautious becasue they know all streaks end at some point.

Just comparing the teams without considering the situation there is not a single way TCU can stay with Baylor. Baylor is tougher and more physical (first thing I look at), far better defense (second thing I look at) and has a superb rush game while TCU is one of the worst teams in the country against the run, (third thing I look at)

Baylor also has better athletes, better offense, better QB, better coach, better everything.

I haven't lost on Baylor all year and only lost against TCU once--when I was so stupid as to bet on Texas Tech--and the only max bet I've made all year was Oklahoma against TCU

I wrote in my picks I had two road teams giving points I was looking at, Baylor and Utah and Baylor is the better bet, but I just have no idea how a young team, under a second year coach, will handle the situation.

I'm tempted and leaning that way, hoping Baylor had such a miserable year last year they won't let up, and there are plenty of places to still find 6x instead of 7. And Baylor has looked better, more precision on both offense and defense, playing with more confidence, each game

In any case, it's Baylor or pass. I wouldn't bet TCU here under any circumstances
 
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2daBank said:
he bout the last person left on espn that i like. no chance i could ever play one his cards but i do like a few of them this week,
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Not even sure I know others at ESPN other than Kellerman and Steven A. I like Kellerman, didn't like him having to play the role of anti SAS, was too forced and those debate shows are sports equivalent of Jerry Springer.

Do like several of the people who call games. Pasch and Walton are elite together, Rece does fine moderating Gameday but still much preferred Fowler.

SVP is always entertaining though, even was at Golf Channel back in the day.
 
i played BC ml tonight., no real good reason other than liking the coach and thinking they can snap the 4 gm slide against a team who equally as average as them.
 
problem with playing the gmen this week is im sure a lot of ppl will be fading radiers this week, the only time you can trust the giants is when nobody likes them! lol
 
2daBank said:
problem with playing the gmen this week is im sure a lot of ppl will be fading radiers this week, the only time you can trust the giants is when nobody likes them! lol
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BAR just posted that 87% of tickets at BOL (I believe) are on LV -3
 
KJ said:
BAR just posted that 87% of tickets at BOL (I believe) are on LV -3
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i havnt seen anyone saying they were playing raiders, never had a lot of faith in those numbers. my 1st thought was to fade raiders but just dont think it a game where there enough gmen negativity which is really the only time they seem to be good plays to me, lol.. easy pass for me,,im sure ill have to decide if i need to play them as one my 5 in contest i play in cause i sure dont see 5 i like, but that be it.. all i see in nfl this week is niners and props.
 
2daBank said:
i havnt seen anyone saying they were playing raiders, never had a lot of faith in those numbers. my 1st thought was to fade raiders but just dont think it a game where there enough gmen negativity which is really the only time they seem to be good plays to me, lol.. easy pass for me,,im sure ill have to decide if i need to play them as one my 5 in contest i play in cause i sure dont see 5 i like, but that be it.. all i see in nfl this week is niners and props.
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It's actually the guy from BOL that posts those on twitter every week, trust that more than any of the other stuff. He'll even say who the book is pulling for.
 
KJ said:
It's actually the guy from BOL that posts those on twitter every week, trust that more than any of the other stuff. He'll even say who the book is pulling for.
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gotcha, i did just look at sbr contest which i think generally give a pretty good look at what the masses thinking and so far it 43-16 raiders.. i prob will use gmen in my pick 5 contest, still dunno if ill actually bet it tho..
 
chargers the only team that have higher number of picks or greater percentage than raiders.. id have loved to get 4 or so with eagles cause i have been kinda fading chargers a lot thanks to not agreeing with their defensive philosophy and questioning the OC, just coaching in general i guess, outside the fact i like the 4th down aggressiveness for the most part i think they falling short in most other areas and it being masked by fact ppl like the aggressiveness and Herbert who is great..
 
FWIW after the Utah 2H I swore I'd never play AzSt again the rest of the year. Last week vs Wazzu doubled my conviction. But, it seems hard to resist USC game in Tempe.

Anyone venturing a wager on the Sun Devils?
 
If you believe their rock bottom is here, the only way to go is up....unless this team is on the verge of going off the rails and if so then the 2nd H at Utah and last week were the first cars derailing.

I would bet ASU at a pick'em since it is not that and will not be that I can not play them.

USC without Drake London is also a no play for me.
 
bones said:
FWIW after the Utah 2H I swore I'd never play AzSt again the rest of the year. Last week vs Wazzu doubled my conviction. But, it seems hard to resist USC game in Tempe.

Anyone venturing a wager on the Sun Devils?
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tough for me to lay any kind of number with herm teams,, think it gotta be them or nothing with usc main dude in the passing game gone.. what does usc team total look like?
 
bones said:
Anyone venturing a wager on the Sun Devils?
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Thought about it because this should be an easy cover for them, but to me the Pac 12 is as hard to understand as Fermat's Last Theorem. I don't get it much but I pick all the game in my head each week and Ariz State is one of the teams that I'm wrong on all the time

Every week I think I see something--like Washington this week--and at the last minute decide against betting it and I'm ahead in the long run for doing it

The best Pac-12 bet to me looks like Utah, but I'm the worst one to try and pick anything in that conference
 
Added McElroy's picks;
ULL/Ga State u 53x
Oregon/Wash u 51
NC State -2x

He won the first one last night. His under on Oregon/Washington is based on a Pacific storm coming ashore in Seattle, but I looked at it and don't see it as much of a storm. Rain, but in the 50s and some wind, but only 15 mph
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added McElroy's picks;
ULL/Ga State u 53x
Oregon/Wash u 51
NC State -2x

He won the first one last night. His under on Oregon/Washington is based on a Pacific storm coming ashore in Seattle, but I looked at it and don't see it as much of a storm. Rain, but in the 50s and some wind, but only 15 mph
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i was leaning that under without even knowing there be some possible weather. i dont think much of udub or lake but i do think they have made some moves on the defensive side that have the defense playing much better as of late, they have a handful of talented corners that are all playing together now and seems to be working. the offense is still bad as they been struggling to crack 20 the past month against lessor defenses than this ducks team. Feels to me like it bout time for ducks to lay another egg, maybe not lose (they could) but certainly get a scare, only avenue i see to that happening is huskies defense keeping ducks in the low to mid 20s which i think they can do.. knowing there be some rain certainly doesnt hurt my opinion here.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Thought about it because this should be an easy cover for them, but to me the Pac 12 is as hard to understand as Fermat's Last Theorem. I don't get it much but I pick all the game in my head each week and Ariz State is one of the teams that I'm wrong on all the time

Every week I think I see something--like Washington this week--and at the last minute decide against betting it and I'm ahead in the long run for doing it

The best Pac-12 bet to me looks like Utah, but I'm the worst one to try and pick anything in that conference
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:rofl: :rofl:

I had to look it up. I now don't understand what it is. For those interested:

In number theory, Fermat's Last Theorem (sometimes called Fermat's conjecture, especially in older texts) states that no three positive integers a, b, and c satisfy the equation an + bn = cn for any integer value of n greater than 2. The cases n = 1 and n = 2 have been known since antiquity to have infinitely many solutions.[1]
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added McElroy's picks;
ULL/Ga State u 53x
Oregon/Wash u 51
NC State -2x

He won the first one last night. His under on Oregon/Washington is based on a Pacific storm coming ashore in Seattle, but I looked at it and don't see it as much of a storm. Rain, but in the 50s and some wind, but only 15 mph
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15 mph wind is enough to get my attention, generally means gusts of 25-30 that can suck, especially with a wet football

That said weather unders don't work well for me in general, end up seeing turnovers and short fields a lot
 
2daBank said:
i dont think much of udub or lake but i do think they have made some moves on the defensive side that have the defense playing much better as of late, they have a handful of talented corners that are all playing together now and seems to be working.
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Same here. They have looked a lot better in the last few weeks, especially on D, and I won't be surprised if they make a game of it
 
2daBank said:
i played BC ml tonight., no real good reason other than liking the coach and thinking they can snap the 4 gm slide against a team who equally as average as them.
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someone just posted BC good qb was gonna play tonight! that be freaking awesome as i played them expecting Grosel who freaking sucks! i would have bet more had i known this and it true! !
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here. They have looked a lot better in the last few weeks, especially on D, and I won't be surprised if they make a game of it
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I am sure you all saw this. Lake called Ducks players dumb asses. (I know I know, but that is what I'd tell my team)

SEATTLE – Are Washington and Oregon recruiting rivals?

Considering proximity, history and the shared player pool, the answer seems obvious.

Though Husky head coach Jimmy Lake might not want to admit it.

“It seems like the coaches have more of a rivalry versus Oregon with the off-the-field … with the recruiting battles. Is that fair?” Lake was asked in his weekly news conference Monday, five days before his Huskies host the No. 7 Ducks.

“No, I don’t think so,” Lake said, hands folded, shaking his head. “I think that is way more pumped up (by the media and public) than it is. Our battles are really … the schools that we go against are way more … have academic prowess – like the University of Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford, USC. We go with a lot of battles toe-to-toe all the way to the end with those schools. So I think that’s made up a lot and pumped up in your (recruiting service/media) world. In our world we battle more academically prowess teams.”
 
bones said:
I am sure you all saw this. Lake called Ducks players dumb asses. (I know I know, but that is what I'd tell my team)

SEATTLE – Are Washington and Oregon recruiting rivals?

Considering proximity, history and the shared player pool, the answer seems obvious.

Though Husky head coach Jimmy Lake might not want to admit it.

“It seems like the coaches have more of a rivalry versus Oregon with the off-the-field … with the recruiting battles. Is that fair?” Lake was asked in his weekly news conference Monday, five days before his Huskies host the No. 7 Ducks.

“No, I don’t think so,” Lake said, hands folded, shaking his head. “I think that is way more pumped up (by the media and public) than it is. Our battles are really … the schools that we go against are way more … have academic prowess – like the University of Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford, USC. We go with a lot of battles toe-to-toe all the way to the end with those schools. So I think that’s made up a lot and pumped up in your (recruiting service/media) world. In our world we battle more academically prowess teams.”
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lmao, figures. as i was saying, i dont like Lake, he was a terrible hire imo.. Lets try and fire the ducks up when they due to play one their uninspired games! jesus, who is the dumbass jimmy?
 
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