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www.bettheboardpodcast.com
BEST BET: Skipped ahead. After describing the board as “a little rocky” he has
Michigan State +4.5. He has game as “pick ‘em on a neutral.” He says you get a better defense and slightly better running offense on paper. “I will not be watching this.”
Ga @ Tenny +10.5/59
GA can tie longest win streak in SEC history. GA won 5 of last 6 in Knoxville and covered 6 of last 7 meetings. Won each of last 6 by 14+. 27-13 GA last year. UT gets penalized a lot, one of most in nation. GA had 611 yds of offense last week.
Powers on GA Offense and Tenny D: Tenny D cannot stop GA offense. Mims back on GA O line. McConkey at receiver is back/good. Edwards and Milton at RB iare back and good. GA is deep and Beck looking good with 1 pick in last 3 games. BoBo. GA O coordinator. doing very well. All kinds of stats on offense in Top 5. Meanwhile, Tenny D looked bad last week (he's seen it before)…loafing…no effort….disorganized. No clear-cut path for Tenny defense to have any success. Tenny 1H last week was as bad as it gets. Payne on Tenny Offense vs GA Defense:
"Tough games for bettors if you’re too emotional and negative re Tenny." Payne believes Tenny offense can be better this week. GA defense is good but not as good as ’21 or ’22. GA plays 6 men boxes. Ole Miss ran with some success last week. He gives Vol’s run game a chance to have some success. Milton should be used in run game. He did not predict success for Tenny but gives them a chance for running opportunities.
UNC @ Clemson -6.5/58
UNC has not won this game since 2010 and Clemson’s last losing season. Clemson won 39-10 in ACC title game last year. UNC is alive for ACC title with 2 wins in remaining games and Ville beating FlaState this week. First time this season that UNC is an underdog. In 5 games where UNC has been a dog with Drake Maye as starter they are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS. Clemson is 45’2 in last 47 at home. Powers on UNC offense vs Clemson defense: This match-up btw these units is “strength on strength.” He expects a UNC passing game and Maye looks better with Tez Walker at wr. Concern re UNC O Line. Agst Pitt and Miami they gave up 10 sacks. Does not bode well agst Clemson front. Clemson has not faced any passer as good as Maye. Brad leans Clemson defense but not real sure. Payne on Clemson Offense and UNC Defense: UNC has faced “smash mouth” offenses and could be fatigued and are there has been running success agst them. Maffa and Shipley RB duo are good and their O Line has some success and may open up the Clemson pass game. UNC is outside top 100 in explosive pass gains allowed. Klubnick did well agst UNC in title game last year. Payne suggest that if Clemson did not turn ball over and finished drives then the -6.5 is “a touch short.”
Non-Power 5 ODU @ GaSouthern -6/60.5
Brad takes ODU +6.
He gives stats and cites ODU schedule as tougher. Payne concurs and says there is a lot of confirmation in the sharp betting market.
KSt @ Kansas +7.5/56.5
Last 4 wins for Kst wins in this game have been a combined total of 176-61. KSt has won last 7 trips to Lawrence and last Kansas win was 2008. This will be Kansas’ first winning season in 10 years. Question is who will be Kansas QB, Bean or Ballard? Powers on Kansas offense vs KSt defense: KU’s Bean has a head injury but Liepold says he’s optimistic Bean can play. If Bean does not play “this number is severely short.” Ballard is a freshman walk on.
“If Bean is out big edge to KSt.”
Payne on KState offense and Kansas defense: Payne sees an advantage for KSt
“everywhere.” “
Not really a path for stops for Kansas unless the turnover bug bites KSt.” KSt o line is good and only team that could handle them was Texas. The O line is Top 15 creating yards and 2 rbs Giddens and Ward are a Top 10 rushing attack. Kansas allows over 6 yds a carry and are outside the top 120 in EPA per rush allowed. If Will Howard is ahead of down and distance he is a much better qb. Howard will not have to throw often and when he does it will be longer passes over 10 yards. Nothing really positive he had to say re Kansas defense. He says
“If Bean is out this is not going to be much of a rivalry here.”
Utah @ AZ -1/45
AZ seeking 1st win agst Utah since 2015. Utah has won 3 consecutive games in Tucson. AZ has a longshot chance to get to PAC12 title game. Utah is 10-2 ATS last 12 times as road underdog. AZ is 8-2 ATS this season, 8-2 to the Under and 5-0 agst ranked opponents. Powers on AZ Offense vs Utah Defense: He has a
“massive upgrade” of 10 points for AZ power rating, more than any Power 5 team in country. He lost his Under 5.5 win total wager for the year. He said AZ could be 9-1 but de Laura at qb lost the game gst Messy.. Fifita at QB takes care of the ball. He thinks Fifita is worth 1 to 1.5 of the upgraded power rating. He likes rb and wr and legit NFL caliber tight end for AZ. Payne thinks
“price wise pick ‘em is a fair price….one of the tougher games, you do have a freshman qb (Fifita) going agst a Utah defense and that does not have a good sound to it.” Fifita is coming off his worst performance of the year agst Colorado. He thinks the path for AZ success is on Fifita and short passing offense and quick throws. He does think AZ has a chance to win this game and mentions Fifita's good play vs UCLA.
Washington @ Oregon State -2/64
Tickets going for 4x to 5x face value. Last 2 meetings decided by a total of 3 points. If Beavers win next two games they go to conference title game. Washington’s 17 straight wins is 2nd longest in team history going back to 22 straight 1990-1992. Washington defense has allowed 28+ points in 3 straight and 24+ points in 6 of 7 PAC12 games. Huskies are -1 in turnover margin tied for 77th in the country. Beavers 8-2 start best since 2012, the 2 loses by combined 6 points, lowest margin of any FBS team with more than 1 loss. Beavers are dominant at home, 5-0, and all these wins by 12+ and are on a 9-0 home win streak.
Powers on Huskie offense vs Beaver defense: McMillan for Huskies may be back at wr.
“You cannot ignore the Washington advantage on offense.” Huskie’s advantage in passing is Beaver weakness on defense. Dillon Johnson at rb for Huskies provides balance in attack. Powers not sure they even try for balance. Who have Beavers actually faced at QB? He suggests that most all opposing qbs that are not of Penix’s stature have had some success agst them. Beavers can apply pressure, but Huskies o line does not give up sacks.
“I get the money on Beavers, but my goodness Washington has the edge on offense.”
Payne on Beavers offense vs Huskie defense: Martinez is bell cow rb, Top 15-20 in stats. Can DJU succeed through the air if Beavers get behind? Huskie defense is susceptible to the pass and allows 200 yds on the ground. This is a game of strength on weakness of both offenses vs the defenses.
“The Achilles heal for Huskies is physicality in their defensive front….hard to fathom a team making the college playoffs with the type of front Washington has.” He gives stats where Huskies are outside top 100 in many categories including tackles for loss. Beavers run game is “so efficient”; in down to down efficiency, top 7 in rushing success rate, top 25 in explosive runs. He expects DJU to be involved in run game. Both Oregon and USC had “
field days” running the ball vs Huskies. Huskies are not good tackling team and Martinez and Fenwick for Beavers avg 3.8 yards after 1st contact. Thus DJU should not be in passing situations. He says this is a game of competing styles b/c he also thinks that Beavers can't stop Huskie pass game either. He gave big advantages to Beavers rushing offense v Huskies.
SMU @ Memphis +8.5/65.5
SMU has beaten Memphis in 2 of last 3. Evidently, Memphis historically has ATS advantage. SMU has had one of nation’s softest schedules. Memphis coming in after 4 straight wins since losing to Tulane last was 44-38 OT win agst Charlotte, last 4 wins 1-3 ATS. SMU’s starting qb, Stone, came back last week. Powers on SMU offense vs Memphis defense: “
SMU far and away better team here”…gives stats re win margin, points per game and yards per game. In week 2 SMU played OU straight up until 4th qtr. SMU players were highly recruited, great transfers. Powers thinks
“SMU is best group of 5 team in the country….I think Memphis is a fraud.” He does like Memphis rb and wrs, but the Memphis defense is atrocious last 8 games have allowed 480 yds per game.
“SMU for me.” Payne:
“Brad hit it perfectly, you just don’t like laying multiple scores on the road in a game like this.…We were all hoping to lay worst case scenario 7 and the number has not given us the opportunity.”
UNLV @ AF -3/47
Forecast looks good, low 35. Winner takes sole possession of Mountain West. AF on 2 game losing streak. Score in last year’s game was 42-7 AF. UNLV has lost only to Michigan and Fresno (dropped a last second TD pass) and the 5 game winning streak is longest since ’84. Major injury concerns for AF. UNLV 9-1 ATS best in country with cover margin of 11.5 pts and they are “super consistent” in their play. Only game they did not cover was ColoSt, a victory.
“UNLV does not have a lot of weaknesses.” AF has Larriar injury at qb and turnovers are a problem.
“Larriar does not look right…this line is telling you he is doubtful….if he was probable, we’d be sitting at 6 point spread here.” Replacement, Jones, is a three point downgrade to say the least. UNLV is ‘live’ here. AF just does not have the throw game and
consistency in run game.
