ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 10

TahoeLegend said:
They are sound when it comes to handicapping sides, not that great on totals. I think they got the idea from public handicappers. They heard a couple of different guys they respect talking about the under so they took it

That stat about service teams going under was right on the money, at least in the first half.
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always play the under, dog usually a pretty good bet too!!
 
2daBank said:
what a insane game army/af was, the armed forces rarely disappoint!! even with ot still got the under!!
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I love those service academy games. I didn't like the play calls when Navy had first and goal at the end though. They can't pass the ball worth a shit even when they are on their own end of the field with the entire field in play and yet they try and pass two of four downs when they are compressed into the end zone. Made no sense to me. Not so bad on fourth and six, but the reason they had to pass then was they threw it on second down. Their receivers are so slow they had zero chance to get open in that compressed space

Added Purdue +3. Almost passed, but my numbers say it's worth a play
 
TahoeLegend said:
I love those service academy games. I didn't like the play calls when Navy had first and goal at the end though. They can't pass the ball worth a shit even when they are on their own end of the field with the entire field in play and yet they try and pass two of four downs when they are compressed into the end zone. Made no sense to me. Not so bad on fourth and six, but the reason they had to pass then was they threw it on second down. Their receivers are so slow they had zero chance to get open in that compressed space

Added Purdue +3. Almost passed, but my numbers say it's worth a play
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did you watch rest of game? i hear what you saying but army bottled up the run game, passing what got them back in the game. passing was key to all both teams points really.
 
2daBank said:
did you watch rest of game? i hear what you saying but army bottled up the run game, passing what got them back in the game. passing was key to all both teams points really.
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I watched it. They completed a couple of passes, yes, but out by midfield, and they had more times when they either missed the pass or got sacked by Army and then got back ahead of the chains by running on long yardage downs

And down close to the goal line they had zero chance of completing those two they threw. On both of them the Army D was all over the passer and their receivers couldn't even get a foot of separation. They could have thrown ten times and maybe completed one. Their best chance was getting a pass interference or holding and one receiver did get held, but the refs missed it

Great game though and I liked that neutral field feeling
 
TahoeLegend said:
I watched it. They completed a couple of passes, yes, but out by midfield, and they had more times when they either missed the pass or got sacked by Army and then got back ahead of the chains by running on long yardage downs

And down close to the goal line they had zero chance of completing those two they threw. On both of them the Army D was all over the passer and their receivers couldn't even get a foot of separation. They could have thrown ten times and maybe completed one. Their best chance was getting a pass interference or holding and one receiver did get held, but the refs missed it

Great game though and I liked that neutral field feeling
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Honestly I was more scared when qb dropped back but I hear ya. 13-20 before the last 2 incomplete. I think they just felt that was their best chance. I was scared, I was sure there was gonna be a flag but refs let corners play all game which made game even better to me! Had AF scored a td it would have broke my heart! I had lot on the under! Lol.

If that wasn’t crazy enough on the other channel I had that Willis over 53 rushing yard prop and had no idea they counted sack yardage against qb rush yards so thought I was screwed as he had minus yards most of 3 qrtrs! Every time he has a good run he then got sacked and lost all the yardage! Even when he finally got over the number he then got sacked again and lost it before finally getting over for good! Lol. I’ll never play another ncaa qb rush yard prop!!
 
ah crap,, who this qb tcu is playing? where duggan? i thought i was gonna be against him! lol.. guess they shaking things up?
 
i hate being a favorite guy but looking at the night games i dont see much in way of appealing dogs. feel like ya almost got to lay the double digits with bama, coastal, and nevada. i can make a case for udub but really dont wanna play them, i like 1st half under more than side.. i wanted to make a case for fresno all wek but have a bad feeling bout them, no chance i play boise but i do like the under 61, that seems pretty high. only one i see is utep, i love me some utsa but think this too many to lay on road to a solid defensive team.
 
I must be missing something. Kentucky has gone from -3x open to -1 all week, now I just bet Kentucky and got +1x

Line shopping on Bama, but I'll bet them if I can find the right number. Just don't know if it's TT over quarter, half, or game, or side, quarter half or game

Nothing I like late. Maybe parlay on Washington and Hawaii or maybe Fresno with one of those
 
TahoeLegend said:
I must be missing something. Kentucky has gone from -3x open to -1 all week, now I just bet Kentucky and got +1x

Line shopping on Bama, but I'll bet them if I can find the right number. Just don't know if it's TT over quarter, half, or game, or side, quarter half or game

Nothing I like late. Maybe parlay on Washington and Hawaii or maybe Fresno with one of those
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luckily i just did game, when i see lines higher than 17 for half i get gun shy, plus i figured bama would pour on against these guys if they could, dunno if it natter cause i got shitty number and not really sure i see them covering 29!!!! they playing flat.
 
Almost all the ATS pickers did really well except for Bear. And the ML pickers had a rough week, all going 0-fer I believe.

I remembered something he said about Michigan State yesterday. A lot of us were on Purdue I think right. Well Bear said on Gameday that because they had such low win probability in games like Nebraska and Indiana and maybe another game they trailed in, probably Michigan, because their live betting odds to win those games was so low that it meant they wouldn't lose today. Huh, what kind of reasoning is that? I guess it says they overcome a lot of adversity, was that his point. But how does coming back to surprisingly win those games have any bearing on Purdue.

The Purdue game was all about the Purdue style of O and what Michigan State D struggles at. It was all about turn around for a game after playing the Super Bowl game.

Jimbo Fisher said some things after Texas A&M beat Alabama and when they were getting ready for Missouri. I can't remember all of it, but it was the most honest assessment of how a team can be vulnerable after a big win. You know, most coaches, Tucker included, they all play down the possibility of being flat or looking past somebody or allowing too many pats on the back to go to your head. Fisher said players might say the right things, they might really believe they are focused on the next game and they might even look like they are doing the right things in practice, but they aren't. It is very hard to not have a game like Michigan effect the entire week after it and the following game. Look at Michigan too vs Indiana. A sluggish not great game, only led I think by 10 at HT. It's hard. I wish more coaches would just be honest and acknowledge the challenges of playing the week after a huge win.
 
s--k said:
Well Bear said on Gameday that because they had such low win probability in games like Nebraska and Indiana and maybe another game they trailed in, probably Michigan, because their live betting odds to win those games was so low that it meant they wouldn't lose today. Huh, what kind of reasoning is that?
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I heard that too. He says crackpot things like that every week.

I have no idea why ESPN decided he was a handicapper, because he clearly does not understand the basics of handicapping football.

They said on one of the weekday ESPN shows that Bear was first hired as a statistician by the network. That doesn't surprise me. A lot of statisticians believe you handicap football by comparing stats. All the D-League handicappers do it that way. If you listen to Daily Wager you'll hear an endless stream of comparison of stats but almost never hear them actually talk about things that matter on the football team.

You hear an endless stream of something like, well, I like Michigan because over the last four years their YPP in November is plus 2.6 above the ESPN SP+ rating, and over the last five seasons teams that have a YPP at 2.2 or better above the ESPN SP+ rating are 9-3 ATS at home when coming off a loss of less than 10 points .

Just this week I heard, "I'm all over Auburn this week because over the last 17 years, when Texas A&M is off a bye and laying more than 3 points at home in a conference game they are 1-6. Pure lunacy. Totally meaningless

All of them are losing on the year with results exactly the same as they would have with pure random picks. Which makes sense because using their methods is the same as making purely random picks
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Good picking. And none of yours were even close were they? Seems like you had them all won from first quarter on
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Willis over rushing prop was close, kinda shocked i cashed that. I had no idea in ncaa sacks count against a qb rushing total, guess i should know the rules! lol. He had negative yardage most the 1st half, every time he had a good run it was then negated by a sack, shit was driving me crazy!! Even when he finally got things going and got over the number he then got sacked again and dropped back below! dont think it was till the final drive he got and stayed over the number, he had to run for damn near 150 yards to get the 70 he was credited with!!! After he got over it again on that last drive i was so hoping he would just throw and pick or score so that i didnt have to sweat out and more sacks..

actually they were all pretty damn close!! Corn wasnt exactly a easy cover, army/AF under should have been easy but ended up going to ot and getting very close to beating the under. k-st played most the second half tight around the number, Memphis was really the only one of them that i felt mostly in control of the cover from wire to wire, and even that game got close at the end (the cover was never really in danger tho).. SO not exactly stress free! lol
 
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