Early lean

[edou1x]

WP<35 and o:WP<35 and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and p:W and op:W and total>200 and 2007<=season :tiphat:


seems a good spot for lak-Phi U

 

[edou1x]

however when a key player is out the game usually go over in the first game following the injury and the team does good with the injury in the first game

 

[edou1x]

do you know if it's possible via a database to know what's the exact U/O and ATS results for teams without a key player which could be described as scoring 20+ points in average, in their first game without him?

 

[tuck321]

No. Have very little time this morning. When I glanced at the Kings game my first thought was the over which seemed to make sense looking at the spot and the refs. Kings on 2 days rest are 0-4 ATS and over time 6-21 ATS last 3 years. The Kings are 0-4 under on 4 days rest.
Off an upset loss they are 1-2 ATS and 9-15 ATS last 3 years. The refs all lean over
Mauer favors home chalk somewhat
Orr is 1-9 for chalk
3rd is 5-10 for chalk
I am having a lot of trouble seeing this stay under

 

[tuck321]

I glanced a while at the Boston game and then gave up;
Nets away on Saturday are 3-7 SU 6-4 ATS and 2-8 under. Have no idea where Bostons head is and a lot of trends conflict.

 

[tuck321]

Just looked at the refs in Spurs game.
Favorites are
3-11
4-14
6-7
Spurs at home on Saturday 9-1-3 ATS
Houston this year is 1-10 ATS after a upset loss as favorite
6-1 over on Saturday.
Spurs tend not to do well 11-10 after a 10 plus win and have trouble ATS 8-7 after 3 or more wins
There are a lot of other trends that smile on them
Last 10 at the site Houston is 5-5 ATS
I just noticed they shot 56% against the Suns. Remember the variation that happened after this at Toronto. they shot 61% and then
[TABLE="class: num"]
<tbody>[TR="class: datahl2b"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] 240[/TD]
[TD] 34-76[/TD]
[TD] 7-25[/TD]
[TD] 19-24[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] 13[/TD]
[TD] 22[/TD]
[TD] 35[/TD]
[TD] 23[/TD]
[TD] 19[/TD]
[TD] 10[/TD]
[TD] 17[/TD]
[TD] 2[/TD]
[TD] 94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD="class: datacellb"] 44.7% [/TD]
[TD="class: datacellb"] 28.0% [/TD]
[TD="class: datacellb"] 79.2% [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD="class: datacellb, colspan: 3"] Team Rebs: 4[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD="class: datacellb, colspan: 5"] Total TO: 17[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[h=3][/h]
????

 

[tuck321]

Minn under 203.5
Certainly not a play based on refs but its almost impossible to pick a side and
I see a lot of bad shooting

 

[tuck321]

I am used to bad predictions. Houston blog is looking at a 30 point loss. Pounding is thinking a 4 point win.
Thinking about betting 5 dollars on Houston. May be too much

 

[tuck321]

Mystery theatre
Last night i saw the Lakers minus 1 vs Suns
i had intended to bet the Lakers here for about 10 days
i had expected a larger spread
i took them for 1.5 units
The Suns are playing worst 5 in 7 on the road after being blown out because of their knack for no defense.
The refs are
15-6 for the home team
17-9 for the home team
17-6 for the home team
The Lakers are playing with Major revenge
The Suns are 3-1 ATS after a 20 point loss or greater
The Lakers are caught in a minor way to a look ahead to GS
The Suns are 2-5 playing B-B
How is this line possible?

 

[tuck321]

i will say this.
Devin Booker except for terrible defense is looking like a future star.
The Suns are now 4-16 last 20 on the road and are interested in a high lottery pick

 

[tuck321]

[h=2]ntinued to bash the Knicks's effort, defense after Saturday's practice[/h] By Joe Flynn
<header> @ChinaJoeFlynn on Jan 3, 2016, 6:11a 36 36
</header>
<source type="image/webp">

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports


Fish ain't happy.





Tweet Share (8) Pin

Knicks coach Derek Fisher is generally a positive dude ... a quality he needed to survive last season's prolonged nightmare. Upon witnessing New York's fourth-quarter collapse in Chicago, however, Fish is apparently mad as hell, and not gonna take it anymore!
First the coach lit into his players in his post-game comments, per the Daily News' Stefan Bondy:

"There should have been enough left in the tank. However, we didn't sustain the effort in the fourth quarter. Everybody has to be ready each minute of the game. There just wasn't an effort in the first and fourth quarters. I don't want to be a team that gives up when there is a little rain. No matter where you are in the season, you can't allow a game to get away from you like that in the fourth quarter. Chicago was ready to play right from the start. I don't think we were."
​

Tensions usually run high in the locker room after a tough loss; surely Fisher had calmed down by the time New York finished their Saturday afternoon practice.
Noooooooooooope.

But Fisher wanted to focus on the shoddy defense, and especially the 120 points per 100 possessions the Knicks allowed against the Bulls on Friday.
"That won't get it done," Fisher said. "I think it's more interesting to talk about offense and what guys are shooting and who didn't get what shot. We often overlook the dirty work that needs to be done on the defensive end in order to win. If we can get back to that, the offense can kind of come around."
...
"Guys showed a lot of toughness and character to get back into the game (on Friday), and then politely packed it up and threw it back out the window in the fourth quarter."
​

At least Fisher is using the right metrics to describe the Knicks' crappy defense, not only Friday night, but over their last six games: New York is indeed tied with Phoenix for dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.9), but only 19th in points allowed per game (103.2) due to their slow pace. That first stat is the important one, and the Knicks suck at it.

 

[tuck321]

Knicks as a home dog are 0-2 this season and 3-11 last 3 years.
They tend to go over in that role.
Atlanta in January on the road is on a 9 game winning streak and a 11 game ATS streak.
Refs in the game like home teams but home dogs are 5-13
Atlanta has not been a great road team on Sundays but is 2-0 in the role SU and 1-1 ATS this season and 5-3 SU last 8 and ATS 4-2-2
Knicks at home on Sunday this season 2-1 SU 1-2 ATS
Fairly strong under refs

 

[tuck321]

Average bet on Miami under.
This is a little in reverse of the refs.
Why? They play at home tomorrow vs the Pacers
They are 2-9 under on the road this season
2-15 revenging a loss
9-23 under revenging a home loss
9-1 under on the road on Sunday and Washington is now 5-1 under last 6
Playing this low for 1 reason last 6 for these team went over. about .5 a unit
This play actually scares me. I just went around the internet and apparently Many are on it?

 

[edou1x]

@tuck: wouldn't bet the over but at least the last 2 meetings in WAS went under tonight number.
plus WAS has not been on OT yet this seasonrayer

 

[anzhu]

Hey tuck, appreciate all your write ups and the insight. Been reading your thread daily

 

[tuck321]

Glad to hear it. Playing over in Utah. Not sure what the numbers is at this casino but will post later and with Utah playing at Spurs next and Houston largely insane doubt it matters.

 

[tuck321]

Kind of puzzled. The spread is 8.5 in GS??? I tend to play more dogs then favorites but GS is playing off an ATS loss and facing the Hornets who have Batum and Jefferson out for sure. I understand GS is going to be missing players but this seems very low.

 

[tuck321]

Hornets play at Suns next

CHARLOTTE IS 4-6 SU AND 5-5 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

<tbody>
</tbody>

DATE

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]HOME[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/17/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]2½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]201½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11/14/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-6½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/01/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]105[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-8½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]204½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11/22/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]91[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]98[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-3½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]190½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]121[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-9[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]198½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11/07/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]117[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]193½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/04/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-10[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]187½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

</tbody>

Somehow I think they might not give this game their best
Just thinking so far

 

[tuck321]

Just a few fairly weak plays. Half unit play on Portland plus 1 with Lilliard supposed to play. Great day of week for Portland and massive homer refs
17-10
20-7
8-1
Hard to resist. GL

 

[hugh613]

tuck, what are the Suns waiting for with Hornacek? I know it's not all his fault, but he's clearly lost this team, so don't understand why they're dragging this out.

Good luck tonight.

 

[tuck321]

A lot of it is his fault. Losing Thomas and Dragic was the front office who created a point guard situation with 2 point guards that had had health problems and with Bledsoe big health problem. Why they do not boot him NO Idea. Trying to save money in a lost season? Anyway you look at it pretty stupid.
Still looking at today's games

 

[tuck321]

FYI I do like Dallas. Out traveling I see 2 posters. One has lost 7 straight ATS who likes Dallas and the other is 2-6 last 8 that likes Dallas. I would like the over in Atlanta. 2 strong under umps and a moderate under ref. Might still play it. Knicks are a something of a mystery. Tomorrow they play at Miami. Miami has beat and covered against them 8 in a row and twice this year. How this plays on their minds is not obvious
On the great Bucks debate???
Bulls are 1-6 ATS this season in the 6.5 to 9 range and are looking at the Celtics coming in. They are also 0-6 ATS vs divisional opponents
Bucks are 6-0 ATS this season vs divisional opponents and are 1-3 as a dog in this range and meanwhile league wide the margin of victory climbs while they play at Chicago in worst 3 in 4.

 

[tuck321]

By the way refs in Dallas moderately suck.
Dallas is off 2 ATS losses and has never lost 3 in a row this season
Kings are 0-8 SU on no rest but 4-4 ATS
and Dallas played tomorrow at the Pelicans who beat them earlier twice earlier this season and the refs favor the over here where I might lean under which is 10-2 last 12 at home

 

[tuck321]

This is also a 10-4 over spot for the Bucks

 

[tuck321]

Milwaukee is 3-3 ATS vs divisional opponents
They are 6-0 over vs divisional opponents
and are also in a 10-4 over spot. May bet this I suppose but the refs lean UNDER what else and of course Bulls in this range are 1-6 under. Icon of grinding teeth

 

[tuck321]

Bucks away after a loss SU 3-12
0-4 after a loss a 20+ loss
Bulls are 0-4 ATS this season after an upset loss
There is apparently enough evidence to support a Bulls fade but they do win
This season the silly home losses have pretty much stopped and their is at least 1 21-6 Ref
No total play is really right in the Atlanta game because of the mystery factor involving Knicks and Miami

 

[tuck321]

Kings this season have never won b-b
Off an upset win they are 0-6 ATS
Dallas minus 5.5 1 unit

 

[tuck321]

This is a very annoying day for totals. Half unit play closing my eyes on Dallas under.

 

[tuck321]

Atlanta off an upset loss is 17-7 ATS. They should bounce back and cover but once again the refs seem to disagree but Knicks are in a crazy spot with the Miami game. ML parlay with Chicago. Will be betting Bucks close to game time for half a unit. The bottom line here is Boston is a look ahead, Chicago does stink after upset wins and Milwaukee is supported by a ton of trends. Sorry I wish this stuff was easier but it is very tough

 

[tuck321]

Just saw a 7.5. took Atlanta at that number straight.

 

[tuck321]

Not a good 2 days. The week was nice.
The Clippers in their last 5 games have won and beat the spread by 7
16
2.5
8
And 31
away on Wednesdays they recently won and covered 4 in a row
The Spurs sit on Mount Doom and are 12-3 ATS against losing team. have not lost a home this year and are 8-2 ATS last 10 while Utah is 2-8 in their last 10 road games
Atlanta by the way has gone over in 9 of their last 10 games which might have been better than playing them as a side recently
The Hornets this season are 6-1 ATS after a 10 point loss but against the Mighty Suns???
Go Cleveland seems possible
Denver a real option. Here is hoping I do better Wednesday because Atlanta was not exactly a feather in my cap today
Speaking seriously for a moment I pushed 2 teams with bad refs. I think you can get away with that with real power teams but Atlanta?
Dallas of course played much better holding an 8 point lead in the fourth and going to a super skinny win in double over time. I do not know if better refs would have changed this but I am going to be a lot harder to please.
See you tomorrow

 

[C-MAN]

Any NHL thoughts Tuck?

 

[tuck321]

Real interest in NJ. 8-2 last 10 away on Wednesday. At 20-20 if they lose they go under 500
Toronto is just getting too much. I know Anaheim is 5-0 on 2 days rest this year but they are 3-7 last 10 vs Toronto and Toronto is 4-1 away last 5
Have not looked at all the games yet

 

[tuck321]

In the Clippers game today I am very likely to go over despite some negative trends. The Clippers to some extent seem robots on totals. Under at home on Monday is one example. Over on the road on Wednesday is 9-1 last 10 and they are also 9-1 ATS in those games.

 

[tuck321]

Miami vs Knicks is weird. Over the last 2 years Miami has had 3 3 games ATS winning streaks and has never had a 4 game ATS winning streak. They are on a 3 game ATS winning streak. 8 game SU and ATS vs the Knicks. Refs so so and after this game the Knicks die in Spurs. Miami plays at the Suns next who they have beaten 10 times in a row and have gone 9-1 ATS against and have Dragic in play. Ae they going for a complete reversal and win 5 in a row?
Knicks by the way away on Wednesday are 1-5 away 4-2 ATS and have gone under 5 in a row.
On no rest 2-5 SU 4-3 ATS and 4-3 over
On 1 days rest Miami is 14-9 SU 7 -16
Playing at home after a win 6-7

 

[tuck321]

I am not making a pick but I am stating some facts. Detroit away after a win is 5-5
After a 20 point win or greater they are 1-3 SU and ATS
away on Wednesday they are 2-18 SU 8-11 ATS
Boston is 0-2 SU last 2 home games losing as a favorite to Lakers and Nets and they play at Robot zombie Chicago tomorrow who they are 3-7 SU and ATS tomorrow. We do know they are a Great road team B-B and off that 9 point win in the last game they are 1-2-1 ATS at home
The refs in this game are
18-9 for the home team SU
13-7
17-8
They are also very mildly against favorites in this range

 

[tuck321]

Orlando has won 7 in a row at home on Wednesday
Indiana is 3-2 away on Wednesday and 4-1 ATS. They are 1-7 last 8 on the road. 6-4 last 10 at orlando and have won the last 2 at this site
Refs
19-7
12-9
20-10
Orlando in their last game vs Detroit did not win a quarter and has looked like a rag doll
Orlando is 12-6 at home Indiana is 7-10
With a one game separation in the standings this game is significant for both teams

 

[tuck321]

Killersport trends were very old today which I pay much less attention to.
Vegas Experts
[h=2]6[/h] Indiana at Orlando, 7:05 ET
Indiana: 50-30 ATS after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less
Orlando: 18-35 ATS after 3 games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers
New York at Miami, 7:05 ET
New York: 21-10 ATS after a game where they made 85% of free throws or better
Miami: 4-18 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games
Cleveland at Washington, 7:05 ET
Cleveland: 120-89 ATS after a game where they made 85% of free throws or better
Washington: 47-70 ATS at home after a combined score of 175 points or less
Toronoto at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET
Toronto: 13-27 ATS after playing a game as an underdog
Brooklyn: 16-4 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Detroit at Boston, 7:35 ET
Detroit: 11-26 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5
Boston: 35-16 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Dallas at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
Dallas: 78-54 ATS in road games after allowing 110 points or more
New Orleans: 2-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points
Denver at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Denver: 19-8 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 games
Minneosta: 4-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more
Utah at San Antonio, 8:35 ET
Utah: 39-62 ATS in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games
San Antonio: 15-5 ATS as a home favorite
Charlotte at Phoenix, 9:05 ET
Charlotte: 34-20 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders
Phoneix: 5-15 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days
Memphis at Oklahoma City, 9:35 ET
Memphis: 1-8 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more
Oklahoma City: 51-30 ATS at home after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite
LA Clippers at Portland, 10:05 ET
Los Angeles: 21-40 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers
Portland: 90-59 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less
See a number of these I do not believe are rational in the world right now

 

[tuck321]

Refs in the Suns game are moderately for the home team. Batum is supposed to be out which leaves the Hornets very under powered. Few who know the Suns expect them to win. Currently playing .5 unit on the Hornets

 

[tuck321]

Favors out. Spurs very under powered but probably can still do what they want
Cleveland is back. Great Wednesday team and healthy leads my list
0 look a heads for Cleveland.
Cleveland last 10 away on Wednesday

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]DATE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]HOME[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]11/25/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]TOR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]200½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]10/28/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MEM[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]189[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]05/20/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]ATL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]199½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]04/08/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]6½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]198½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]03/25/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MEM[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]194[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/04/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]TOR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]112[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]120[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]204½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]11/05/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]102[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]207[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]04/02/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]ORL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]98[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]119[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]197[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]03/26/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]DET[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-6[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]205[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/12/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-8[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]211[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]P[/TD]

</tbody>

Remember what happened to Toronto

 

[tuck321]

Unhappy teams play
1 big over ref
Denver on the road on Wednesday after a home loss
Minn at home after losing 3 in a row including a game vs Philadelphia
Minn has lost the last 2 games to Denver
212
219 points in those games 1 unit

 

[tuck321]

The spread in OKC seems insane. No bet here. I actually think they cover it. This is off the biggest loss OKC has had this season and Memphis is 1-8 revenging a 10 or greater loss this year.
NBA land of the lunatics

 

[tuck321]

Adding under in the Celtics game. Reasoning. If you look at the Celtics this season when they are playing first game of a b-b under is 5-2. They expect a high intensity game vs Bulls. 1 big under ref. to match a big over ref.
Detroit plays vs Brooklyn next. 1-4 last 5 SU 0-5 last 5 ATS
They are also 3-6 under after a 10 or greater win.
In other words. I am guessing with some reasons.
Do not forget that right or wrong I am on the over in Portland

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight Tuck
:cheers3:

 

[tuck321]

Thanks:shake:
As it happens I feel like throwing up right now.
I just bet Houston minus 8.5 vs Utah
The NBA can be so brutal. How can this spread make ANY sense?
Houston is playing at home off 2 days rest
Utah is playing away 6th game in 9 days after being battered by the Spurs
They are 2-8 last 10 at the site.
Last 3 trips they have lost by 26, 15, and 24 and tomorrow they are playing off 4 of their top players.
Utah has lost 6 games in a row on the road with 1 cover.
Maybe they should play with their hands tied too.
1.5 unit bet that just has to be made.

 

[tuck321]

Game is up to 9.
Utah divided their minutes well. only 2 hit 28 to 29 minutes.
Their history is good away on Thursday

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]DATE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]HOME[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]11/12/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]92[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]91[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-4[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]184[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11/05/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]DEN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]84[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]190½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]03/19/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]LAL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]73[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]80[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]4½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]183[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/22/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-8½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]185[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]10/30/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]DAL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]120[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]102[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-10½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]203[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/22/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]102[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]214½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/02/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]GS[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]119[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]197½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]12/30/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]POR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-1[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]188[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]03/04/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]PHO[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]116[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]214[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]12/31/2009[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]UTA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-3[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]199[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

</tbody>

The problem is that history is predicated on a healthy, rested team
Refs moderately suck.
1-5
2-4
4-2 for home favorites in this range
Utah is 2-5 ATS their last 7 as a 8.5 dog but the teams they faced were mostly better than Houston.
Bottom line when you see them lose by 14 at Minn and 8 at the Kings--but those examples are flawed because they had home games the next day.
These situations are a problem. What i see is that when you get blasted on the road and have to play on the road on very bad rest always short handed it rarely ends well.

 

[tuck321]

First thought in Atlanta at Philadelphia is Philadelphia team total over. i did play it over 98.5
On 2 days rest Philadelphia is 2-1-1 and the over is 3-1.
The last time they played Atlanta they got beaten by 21 points and their current offense is very fluid.
Atlanta defense recently has given up 107, 111, and 115 points
Refs favor the dog 13-9
Its not perfect. 2 under umps but Philadelphia absolutely looks to be up for this
Micheal Smith is the only real problem to taking Philadelphia.
He acts against home teams semi auto. Home dogs are 1-5 with him but in practice Philadelphia has scored
104 and 99 in the only games they played at home with him.

 

[tuck321]

No immediate idea what to do in the Chicago game.
2 refs home team is

DATE

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]HOME[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/10/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]83[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]LAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]80[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]1½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]203½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11/05/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]98[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-1[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]211½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]05/14/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]73[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]94[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]192[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/05/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]105[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]1½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]199[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/12/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]113[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CLE[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]98[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]197½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/22/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]196½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/01/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]DEN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-10½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]204½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]12/25/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]113[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]LAL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-11½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]206[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]P[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/18/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-12½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]188½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/13/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]3½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]193½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

</tbody>

14-14
10-11
3rd is 18-6
Chicago has been very solid at home on Thursday
Boston has now lost 3 in a row at home

 

[tuck321]

The league has so many headcase teams any bet is dangerous but one thing is fairly obvious
The Kings playing off 3 ATS wins now face the Lakers at home in a terrible spot
In 2 days they play GS again after giving up a real shot on 12-28 when Cousins went crazy running their consecutive losses to 11 and then NO who has beaten them twice in 2015
In the last 3 games they have scored 376 points
8.5 spread
with the refs
1-4
1-7
6-2
2-8 ATS their last 10 home games on Thursday 0-2 this season. Just thinking right now.

 

[tuck321]

I just bet Utah moving them to 9.
Reasoning was looking at Utah missing 1 free throw yesterday
Bad refs
Houston is garbage.
Some injury reports on Houston
Houston is garbage.
I have no real idea how Utah can cover but I did not expect Dallas to win at NO yesterday either.
Back later