Early lean

After a while you have to look case by case in evaluating games.
Bulls ate in a 1-7 spot but I might play them. Memphis is a very clear enemy.
Bulls are 6-2 SU at home after a win. ATS might be a problem.
Probably not worth involvement
Suns oddly showed real progress in the last game
Sonny Weems played 12.30 minutes in a constructive start
The team was tight with poor shooting but the secondary players were all playing well
 
Utah at home after 3 losses may be a play.
Pelicans lack of a real back court is simply killing them
Utah on 1 days rest is 8-2 ATS
Pelicans 3-5
Laid 3 4th best defense vs 22th
Antonio Davis is a great player but he has not stopped the losses
 
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NY on 3+ days rest 8-3 ATS last 3 years
Refs in the Orlando game look bad but the Situation seriously favors Orlando due to the Hornet home game the next day vs Toronto.
Refs in OKC game are lousy for a under bet but the play is mandatory.
 
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Have average bets on Portland and the under. May be a junkie and make more bets. Boston is playing Detroit b-b for example and the refs do not show much home field edge but maybe not and I am considering the Suns but none of that may happen and I am not posting more plays.
I think I will talk about 1 game. Memphis at Bulls
Memphis on 1 days rest is 9-6 over
The Bulls in their last 5 home games are 3-2 OVER. These 2 teams really do not like each other. Under in OKC and Clippers 5-1 under on 1 days rest playing off an OT with a big look ahead both feel more natural to me here
 
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Looks like a bad day to bet. On purely technical grounds Cleveland stands out. In the real world I am much more likely to play Hornets on how the game sets up. Have been avoiding Laker games. That is probably a good policy but do have some interest in them today. if I do anything I will post
Betting Trends - Thurs - Dec, 17

Toronto at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Toronto: 29-15 ATS in road games
Charlotte: 1-9 ATS in home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
By the the OKC box scores are very frightening
 
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Knicks today playing at 76ers
Tomorrow at home vs Chicago who beat them last game by 31 at Chicago.
Pretty bad spot
Bulls have pretty good refs today looking at a 4 game ATS streak for Detroit against them
Indiana??sort of bad spot but still seeing them want to fry Brooklyn
Toronto has had 1 3 game losing ATS streak this season.
 
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The more tuck posts his daily stuff here, the more misleading the thread title.
 
Atlanta last game shot 61.5% 87% on 3's
Some of the refs seem to love them but this shooting percentage is very suspect.
 
Sorry lost 3 hours yesterday which hurt my study
Regarding the OKC- Laker game.
OKC is 1-4 ATS after a loss this season at home
Lakers on the road after a 20 point loss or greater are 1-2 ATS
OKC in 2 days plays at the Clippers who beat them in OKC 120-108
Both teams are bad on 1 days rest but Lakers much worse at 3-12 ATS and both lean heavy to the under but team histories and other trends make it hard to bet the game under
This is the second highest spread the Lakers have gotten this year
I Think the opening number is close to accurate but am fairly uncertain
 
Added Hornets minus 1. After wins from 1-4 in the larger wins they become 6-2.
Washington is 1-5 last 6 at home and loaded with injuries. They also won at Hornets recently.
Hornets next stop is Houston where they have lost 9 straight
Washington is just worst in most categories.
Bottom line Washington was forced into a bad style of play that has hurt them.
With Charlotte 8-2 last 10 as a fav from 1-2 and refs that are under 500 for home teams I think it is a reasonable minimum bet but far from any top bet
 
I like the Pacers and they are clearly the better team and playing with major revenge.
Problem is Memphis is 6-1 in B-B SU and ATS and Indiana has big problems with the West.
Pacers are 0-4 revenging a home loss
Memphis at Indiana this year smashed them playing B-B
Memphis actually looks good here
 
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Cleveland has gone over 3 in a row at home on Sunday.
No refs info up
Portland is a road disaster this season and Miami is 18-2 at home on Sunday
Playing at home after a loss they are 6-0
Covers says they are 1-7-1 ATS after a loss of 10 points or more
Refs seem 2 under 1 over None seem to like home favorites
Waiting in hopes of more info but lean to the under, Miami win and Portland cover
Likely action some parlay with Miami ML
Killersports has old trends up that do not like The Portland cover or the under
 
Refs stink for first bet. Orlando so just 1 unit.
Last 3 games
[TABLE="class: last-games"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="colspan: 10"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]VS[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Score[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]BG[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Line[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]ATS Mar[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]O/U[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]ORL FG[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Opp FG[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Reb[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR]
[TD]12/18/15[/TD]
[TD]POR [/TD]
[TD]W 102 - 94[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W -4.5 [/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[TD]U 201[/TD]
[TD]39/84[/TD]
[TD]32/73[/TD]
[TD]48-42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12/16/15[/TD]
[TD]CHA [/TD]
[TD]W 113 - 98[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W 1 [/TD]
[TD]16.0[/TD]
[TD]O 198[/TD]
[TD]43/77[/TD]
[TD]36/79[/TD]
[TD]40-33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12/14/15[/TD]
[TD]@BK [/TD]
[TD]W 105 - 82[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W -3.5 [/TD]
[TD]19.5[/TD]
[TD]U 197.5[/TD]
[TD]41/76[/TD]
[TD]31/80[/TD]
[TD]43-39[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This team is 12-4-1 ATS on 1 days rest
They are the anti headcase team
 
Interest in Kings
Why? Bad refs for one thing
All 3 in this game do not like home favorites and in this range they are 2-12
Toronto as a 6 point or less favorite this season is 3-5 ATS losing last 5 ATS
They are pushing Toronto on 10-2 ATS revenging a loss????
Toronto had won 3 in a row vs the Kings and they won at home by 6
The 3 games before they had ripped the Kings by 17, 8, and 12.
Still thinking about this
Playing it. Kings are currently 7-2 ATS after a straight up loss
 
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Early lean for tomorrow would be Boston
The Hornets this season are 6-0 ATS after giving up 105 or more
The Clippers have a very Big problem. No bench
 
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Refs in the Celtic game are very bad. Considering a bet anyway but waiting on Amir Johnson information.
 
Sullinger and Amir out have to pass on Boston.
Playing under in Atlanta which suits Atlanta 2-5 under on no rest with Detroit coming in and while Portland is 5-2 over on no rest tend to think without Lilliard their scoring will be crippled
 
Also under in Clipper game. Some concern here concerning these teams but OKC 2-8 under after a 10 point win.4-10 under after scoring 105 or more and Clippers---This is Clippers at home on Monday. If they go over maybe the Sun will go out as well
 
Headcase central in operation today.
Memphis is 7-1 SU and ATS playing b-b and tomorrow they play at Washington who is 2-1 against them this season. Memphis is 0-3 this season ATS after an upset win although not sure that definition applies to the Indiana game. I am certain they win the game. In first game of the B-b they are 3-5 ATS
Going back to 1996 they are 0-2 as a road favorite 9.5 to 12 points.
What they do today vs Philadelphia is not immediately obvious although essentially all other teams seem to have said WALK ON THEM
 
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Lakers play at Denver. Denver has walked on them last 3. Tomorrow at home they play the OKC team that just beat them by 40 have a day off and then play the Clippers. Do they make a stand anywhere?
Both Philadelphia and the Lakers have arrived at a state where losing is the normal accepted result with wagging their behinds and licking the hands of the teams that toy with them..
 
Miami is playing at home vs Detroitand face a team that beat them by 23. They are 1-3 ATS at home last 4 against Detroit
Detroit is 7-3 over last 10 and on the 18th outlasted Chicago in a 4 OT game.
History is Detroit on three days rest is average minus.
Miami on 1 days rest is 13-7 and 8-10-1 ATS. Large under trends.
Mild lean to Miami since Detroit went through the 4 OT game and has not processed it. Tuesday for Miami is a poor day 9-11 SU and 6-14 ATS at home
 
In the Denver game the refs favor the home team
15-5
12-9
15-5
This may be deceptive because they really like home dogs home favs being close to even money
SBB’S OU TREND OF THE DAY:
T
he Nuggets are 13-0-1 OU (15.00 ppg) since May 29, 2009
at home with less than two days rest off a loss in which they
scored 15 or more points more in the first than the second half
Under refs collide with this and a Denver team 7-3 over last 10 at home and 6-1 over last 7 at home vs the Lakers
 
In the Toronto game the refs are strong for the home team
13-6
10-6
16-8
Bernie Adams
10-2 home favorites
Toronto has covered 7 in a row with him
The other 2 much more even handed
Toronto off a loss as a favorite is 6-1 ATS this season
 
Just looked. Miami is 1-9 ATS at home on Tuesday
Only 1 game this season but Detroit is 6-4 ATS away on Tuesday
Last 20 games between these two teams Miami is 14-6
Last 4 games the worm turns and Detroit goes 3-1
 
Detroit blog
Leon Halip-USA TODAY Sports
The Pistons have been facing a lot of top defenses of late. That continues Tuesday evening as the Pistons take on the Heat in Miami.


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How about that game four days ago! The Pistons are coming off their longest break of the season after winning an instant classic in Chicago, 147-144. The Bulls are the second best team in Defensive Rating. The Miami Heat are also a great defensive team, currently fifth in the league. How will the Pistons fare?
[h=3]Game vitals[/h] Where: AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL
When: 7:30 p.m. ET
Watch: FS Detroit


[h=3]Game Analysis[/h] In the last four games, the Pistons have taken on three of the top seven defenses in the league. Against the Indiana Pacers (seventh best defensive rating at tip off), the Pistons scored 118 points, 19 more than Indiana had been allowing per game up to that point. Four days later the Pistons took on the Boston Celtics who had the fourth best defensive rating in the league at that time. The Pistons would go on to score 119 points on them, nearly 21 more points than Boston had been allowing per game.
Then you have the awesome game against the Chicago Bulls where the Pistons prevailed after four overtime periods to beat the Bulls 147-144. However, since it took four overtimes to get to 147, that is not a good indicator of what the Pistons did against the second best defensive rating in the league. The Pistons scored 105 points in regulation, which is just over eight points more than what Chicago had been allowing. This was in Chicago where the games against Boston and Indiana happened in Detroit.
The Pistons do not care for your defense.
Well, let's hope that continues to ring true as the Pistons take on the fifth best defensive rated team in the league on Tuesday night, the Miami Heat. The Heat are holding teams to the second lowest points per game in the league, 93.8. However, that number is a little misleading.
One of the likely reasons the Heat are allowing so few points per game is that they've played 17 of their 26 games at home. They have also only played three back-to-back sets this season, four fewer than the Pistons. Fresh legs allows for good defense.
The Pistons offense has been clicking as of late. Over the last 10 games the Pistons are tied for fourth at 107 points per contest. Encouragingly -- as much as you can say that with a straight face -- over the last five games the Pistons' bench has only been second worst in the NBA. That bench, though, may end up getting a boost in the form of Brandon Jennings.


Jennings completed a one-game stint with the Grand Rapids Drive on Saturday and played decent. We can be nit picky if we want -- he shot less than .500, he only split his two free throw attempts, he had five turnovers -- or we can look at the positive. Jennings scored 11 points including two of those being triples (on five tries) and dished out 12 assists. One of those assists was a fancy off the backboard alley-oop. These are with players he only had one practice with. And some of the alley-oops are encouraging when thinking about him playing with Andre Drummond.
However, Steve Blake may still be the leader of the second unit for now:
"I don’t think at this point I would play him ahead of Steve (Blake)," Van Gundy said.​
The Heat enter the game having won six of their last 10 games. When looking at those wins and losses, it is a mix bag of nuts. Wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder at home and Atlanta Hawks on the road. Losses to the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards at home and the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Hornets on the road. They've beaten good teams and lost to not so good teams. Sounds like the Pistons.
This game will be a race to 100. On the season, the Heat are 8-1 when they score 100 points. When their opponent scores 100 points, they are 2-6. The Pistons are 13-1 when they score 100 or more points. Let's hope the Pistons offense is on point Tuesday night.
[h=2]Players to Watch[/h] Pistons: Andre Drummond
Drummond's rebounding numbers have slipped some, down to 16.4 on the season. He goes against another formidable rebounder in Whiteside. While he did pull down 21 rebounds against the Bulls, that was in 55 minutes.
Heat: Hassan Whiteside
Whiteside is the league leader in blocks at four per game. He's also sixth in rebounds at 10.7 per game. Whiteside is also one of the worst free throw shooters at 51.0-percent. How will he fare against Andre?
[h=2]Last Time We Met[/h] Wednesday, Nov. 25 at the Palace - Pistons 104, Heat 81
Drummond was two points away from another 20/20 game, finishing with 18 points and 20 rebounds. Reggie Jackson had a good night getting 18 points on 7-for-12 shooting (4-for-5 from distance) to go with four rebounds and seven assists opposite only one turnover. The Heat were led in scoring by Gerald Green. Yes, you read that right. Dwyane Wade would finish 1-for-9 and Chris Bosh only 3-for-9.
[h=2]Starting Lineups[/h] Pistons: Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Ersan Ilyasova, Drummond
Heat: Goran Dragic, Wade, Luol Deng, Bosh, Whiteside
[h=2]Injuries[/h] Pistons: Meeks (Ankle)
Heat: Josh McRoberts (Knee), Tyler Johnson (Shoulder), Chris Anderson (Illness)
[h=2]Prediction[/h] Pistons win 102-95
[h=2]Community Question[/h] How many minutes does Brandon Jennings play?
 
Golden State defense was pathetic vs the Bucks. I have a question posted at Golden State of Mind on how much work was done on defense.
Utah is 1-5 under 205 to 209 on the road
Revenging a home loss 1-6 under
Golden State usually is an over after an ATS loss but with a serious game coming probably should use this mostly as a practice to get the defense going.
After a non conference game they are 8-2 over so this is just something I am considering
 
Actually made a bet. Over 203.5 in Hornets game. Amir likely out. 2 teams both dealing with a lot of recent losses. Celtics 10-6 over on 1 days rest and Hornets 5-1 at home after a loss.
Expect to have some other bets but still thinking
 
The last time Washington played Brooklyn Washington lost by 37 points. Houston is looking at 3 straight losses to Spurs
Dallas does look like a no brainer.
By the way in the Washington game Kogut 1 ref has given Memphis 10 straight wins
 
I not touching the Suns game. Reasoning for the Suns is simple. They have been Great at home facing unrested opposition. They are 5-2 ATS at home off a loss. Off a 20 point loss they are 2-0 ATS
Denver on the road after a loss is 6-3 ATS and have covered 4 in a row on Wednesday.
The Suns like to roll up the points. They are also playing very badly. Just watching
 
Locked in Orlando, Knicks and under in Orlando. Was honestly a little worried about the Knick who I got plus 12. But a simple rule applies here. The side that lost looks ahead. That side is Cleveland who simply must look ahead to GS
Orlando total was 207.5. Orlando minus 1
Orlando wants to win at home and has reasonably good homer refs. Houston--is looking at triple revenge vs Spurs
 
Honestly do not know why I have not locked in Memphis.
Washington this season is 2-5 at home after a win and 0-2 at home after a 10-19 point win and has a major look ahead to Brooklyn. Just assume I have bet it. Silly bet playing a team that is 7-1 SU and ATS playing b-b
 
Not sure how long the Clippers can play on a 4.5 rotation
Houston has covered 5 in a row at home vs Spurs.
Clippers in a lousy spot. Revenge game Saturday at Utah
Lakers at home 1-1 ATS after a 20 point loss
Clippers last 10 3-5-2 ATS
3-5 ATS ob 3 days rest or more
If Dragic plays Miami is supposed to win Friday
This season Miami off a loss is 7-0 SU at home and 2 of the wins were vs Toronto and OKC
Early impression that OKC Will win and that Clippers Must win
No great interest in stepping in front of Spurs but Dwight plays better at home, Houston has won 6 in a row at home and covered last 5 while Spurs are 9-1 SU last 10 and have covered 7 in a row
Miami is 9-2 SU playing on Christmas
Portland 14-3
Kind of absurd. Have spent 20 minutes trying to get NBA day game records and have not seen any
Spurs play at home vs Denver
Clippers revenge at Utah
Houston at NO
Chicago at Dallas
Cleveland at Portland
Early interest in OKC under which almost always seems right
Cleveland under? 210 or higher 2-9 under
That actually seems scary looking at GS trends
Irving 1-7 18.57 minutes
Cleveland would be Much better off if this match up were delayed 2 weeks to get everyone together
GS 12 game home winning streak on Friday 10-2 ATS
 
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I am seeing a lot of posters here posting the Pelicans. This is interesting. They play at home the next day against the Rockets with triple revenge. If Dragic plays their chances of winning this game are very small.
refs are 13-9, 15-6, and 15-7 for the home team not considering ATS Looking at them in this range the home team is 10-11 ATS. Situational examination yells HEAT. What shape is Dragic in ?. Do not know. Clear lean to the Heat. With real interest and likely playing the under
9-13 under
12-10 over
9-10 under
Both teams playing the next day but Miami plays away at Orlando while the Pelicans play in major revenge at home vs Houston
Which game wants this game more? The answer there is obvious
The Pelicans away have 2 covers in games where they do not win last 16 games which covers this season.
 
Home teams in OKC with the refs are moderately over.
Home teams SU
13-9
12-6
16-6
OKC last 20 is 14-6 SU, 15-5 under
They have won 8 in a row at home and last 7 home games have gone under.
Last 5 vs Bulls they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with the only game they did not cover being a 12 point win.
I do not see any look a heads for them while Chicago plays at Dallas tomorrow
 
Locking in Houston 1.5 units plus 7. Nothing complicated here. Just spent some time looking at history and recent Houston box scores. History says under. Not sure enough to bet that so far.
 
I expect GS to win. That said looking at refs home favorites are 5-10 in that range and Killersports has an 11-0-2 trend up supporting them so I will go for 1 unit plus 7 bowing to MAJOR PLAYOFF REVENGE
 
Dragic is listed and I took Miami minus 5. I played under yesterday at 205 in OKC as an auto bet.
That may be it. I have seen at least 7 people post the Pelicans on the internet but 0 gave reasons. There is a reason. Dragic may not be healthy.
if he is healthy visualize 7 silly people tearing up tickets
GL
 
Just saw a poster in the main thread. He said if it was not for Brothers and it being Christmas he would be on Miami.
As I
Posted above Miami has the best record on Christmas of any team playing today and they are playing off a home loss and with triple revenge on a Pelican team that is looking at a home game tomorrow where they are playing with triple revenge?????
 
May add OKC, uncertain based on the size of their recent wins. i
am adding 1 more fairly scary total. Under in GS. About to bet it but feel team histories and the fact that the refs are under and this is the first seriously quality team GS has played this season add up to under. Please note I am not listing Memphis or the Clippers as quality teams.
 
Dragic appears to have nothing. Pelicans showing very little interest in the game.
Hoping they are just saving Wade for the second half since he had only played 8 minutes .20 second but just looked and he is up to 12.
Small increase in OKC under just based on Massive trends
 
Bulls on Christmas


• Chicago Bulls: 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS and 3-7-1 O/U
Trending: 1-5-1 UNDER last seven games
Guess I stick with the under
Extending


• Cleveland Cavaliers: 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS and 1-4 O/U
0-4 UNDER last four games


• Golden State Warriors: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS and 2-2 O/U
Trending: the favorite in Warriors games is 4-0 SU


• Houston Rockets: 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS and 2-2-2 ATS O/U
Trending: 5-0 ATS last five games


• L.A. Clippers: 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U
0-6-1 UNDER last seven games


• L.A. Lakers: 7-11 SU and 10-7-1 ATS and 5-11-2 O/U
Trending: 5-0 ATS last five as a dog


• Miami Heat: 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS and 2-9 O/U
Trending: 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS last six games


• New Orleans Pelicans: 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U
Trending: not enough games to assess


• Oklahoma City Thunder: 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U
Trending: 2-0 SUATS home Xmas games


• San Antonio Spurs: 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 2-5 O/U
Trending: the dog is 3-0 SU and ATS last three Spurs/Xmas games
 
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