College Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
MIAMI OHIO (-3.5) 33 Ball St. 20
28-Oct-06 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Miami-Ohio has not had the season that was expected of them, as they are just 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS. But, like Marshall last week (0-5 ATS prior to upsetting UAB as a 3-Star Best Bet), the Redhawks are due for a turnaround. Miami applies to a 41-10-1 ATS subset of a 234-120-9 ATS contrary indicator that plays on teams with bad pointspread records and the Redhawks are also a better team than Ball State. Ball State has a good offense (by MAC standards), as the Cardinals have averaged 6.1 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. However, I rate Ball State at 0.1 yards per play worse than average after factoring in the loss of their best running back MiQuale Lewis, who averaged 5.8 ypr (5.2 ypr compensated for opponent) while the other backs average a combined 3.2 ypr (2.8 ypr compensated). Miami-Ohio is 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so Ball State has a 0.6 yppl advantage when they have the ball. However, the Cardinals are among the very worst defensive teams in the nation this year, allowing 6.9 yppl to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. Miami’s offense is 1.0 yppl worse than average when starter Mike Kokal starts (he missed the Cincinnati game), so the Redhawks have a 1.0 yppl advantage when they have the ball. My math model favors Miami-Ohio by 7 ½ points overall and the Redhawks have been much more competitive at home this season, losing by just 2 points to MAC leader Kent State and by just 3 points to Northern Illinois. Miami should take advantage of hosting a lower level MAC team and
I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars if they become a favorite of 3 points or less.
3 Star Selection
MARSHALL (-7.0) 38 Memphis 21
28-Oct-06 01:30 PM Pacific Time
Marshall was 1-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS before I took them as a 3-Star Best Bet last week in their upset win over UAB, and I’ll take the underrated Thundering Herd again this week. Marshall is now 0.5 yards per play better than an average team offensively, as they have averaged 5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That unit moved the ball with ease against a sub-par UAB defense last week and they’ll be even better this week at home against a Memphis stop unit that is 0.9 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) and is without 3 time 1st Team all CUSA S Wesley Smith, who was hurt two weeks ago against Arkansas State. Memphis has been 1.1 yppl worse than average in 1 ½ games without Smith, so Marshall has a 1.6 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Memphis is 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense this season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), but the Tigers have a 0.5 yppl advantage over a Marshall defense that rates at 0.9 yppl worse than average (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Overall, Marshall has a significant advantage form the line of scrimmage, as well as a huge edge in special teams. My math model has consistently won going against Memphis (they still haven’t covered the spread this season) and the math favors Marshall by 17 points in this game, which gives them a 62.8% chance of covering at the current line of -7 points based on the historical performance of my math model.
I’ll take Marshall in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 points (a strong opinion at -9 ½ or -10 points).
2 Star Selection
SOUTH CAROLINA (+4.5) 24 Tennessee 20
28-Oct-06 04:45 PM Pacific Time
South Carolina is a better team since Syvelle Newton took over the quarterback duties 5 weeks ago, as the Newton has been good throwing the ball (7.0 yards per pass play as a quarterback – not including his 54 yard completion on a trick play as a WR in the opener – against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’s enhanced the Gamecocks’ rushing attack too. Overall, South Carolina is 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively with Newton at quarterback (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Tennessee is 0.8 yppl better than average defensively, but the Gamecocks are certainly not overmatched against that stop unit. Tennessee’s offense has become especially one dimensional now that leading rusher LaMarcus Coker is out. Coker averaged 6.3 ypr while the next 3 backs on the depth chart combine for 3.6 ypr. Arian Foster will get the bulk of the carries, but he’s averaged just 3.7 ypr on 52 carries this season against teams that would allow 4.4 ypr to an average back, so he won’t be able to replace Coker’s production. Vols quarterback Erik Ainge is having a great season averaging 8.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback, and I rate Tennessee’s attack at 1.0 yppl better than average even with the bad rushing attack (since they’ll simply throw the ball more than they usually do). South Carolina’s defense rates as average this season, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl to an average defense, so Tennessee has considerable edge in that match-up. South Carolina has been good keeping teams out of the endzone once they get in scoring position, as they’ve allowed just 14.0 points per game and haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any game (and that was to Auburn). My math model calls for Tennessee to out-gain the Gamecocks 377 yards to 304 yards, but South Carolina has an advantage in projected turnovers (2.0 points) and in special teams (2.4 points) and the math favors Tennessee by just 2 points overall. The reason for the play on South Carolina is a 79-23-4 ATS home momentum situation that is 17-1 ATS when applying to home underdogs. The Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS with Newton at quarterback and
I’ll take South Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +5 points or more.
College Strong Opinions
VIRGINIA (pick) 23 No Carolina St. 17
28-Oct-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Virginia started the season really struggling offensively, but freshman Jameel Sewell has added a running element from the quarterback position and his passing is no worse than the previous Cavs’ quarterbacks. In 5 starts with Sewell the Cavaliers have averaged 5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl, but that’s actually better than the -1.0 yppl rating (3.9 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl) that they had in their first 3 games before Sewell took over. Sewell has really improved after two horrible outings to start his career, as the Cavaliers’ attack is 0.2 yppl better than average the last 3 games (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl). I believe that is the level that Virginia will continue to play offensively, but I’ll use the all 5 games for the purpose of my math model – just to be conservative. NC State is just average defensively this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team), so Virginia should perform at a decent level offensively. NC State also switched quarterbacks in week 4, and Daniel Evans has improved the Wolfpack offense. Evans has averaged 5.7 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback), but his -0.7 yppp rating is an improvement over former starter Marcus Stone and the Wolfpack have a very good rushing attack. I rate NC State’s attack at 0.1 yppl better than average, but they are at a disadvantage against a good Virginia stop unit that has yielded just 4.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Overall, my math model projects Virginia with a 306 to 283 total yards advantage and an edge in projected turnovers and special teams. Overall, the math favors Virginia by 6 points at home, where the Cavaliers are 21-8 ATS under coach Al Groh when not laying more than 23 points, including 10-2 ATS as a home underdog. NC State, meanwhile, is just 8-20 ATS as a favorite in ACC play under coach Chuck Amato, including 1-15 ATS recently. The math model gives Virginia at 59.9% chance of covering at +1 ½ points and
I’ll consider Virginia a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’ll take Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
Northwestern (+31.5) 7 MICHIGAN 31
28-Oct-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Northwestern set a record last week for the biggest lead ever lost, as they let a 38-3 lead turn into a 38-41 loss to Michigan State. While you may think that blowing such a lead could lead to an emotional meltdown this week, all indications are that the effort on offense with new starting quarterback C.J. Bacher has actually given the Wildcats some hope. Bacher was the leading contender to win the starting job, but was injured prior to the season and wasn’t fully recovered until recently. Bacher finally got his chance to start last week and he was very effective in averaging 7.8 yards per pass play against a Michigan State defense that would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback. I’m not going to assume that Bacher is going to perform at such a high level going forward, but the Wildcats are probably going to be better than their -0.5 yards per play offensive rating (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Wildcats won’t score much against a dominating Michigan defense that has yielded just 4.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Northwestern has scored at least 7 points in every game (they scored an average of 8 points against good defensive teams Penn State and Wisconsin) and Michigan has allowed at least 6 points in every game, so the Wildcats should score at least one touchdown with what looks like an improved offense with Bacher at quarterback. Northwestern may not have to score at all to cover such a big number, as Michigan’s offense is very conservative and is without a big play threat with Mario Manningham still out with an injured knee. Manningham averaged 22.0 yards on his 24 catches while the other two wide receivers, Arrington and Beaston, have combined to average only 11.8 ypc. If you plug in 11.8 ypc into Manningham’s 24 catches the difference is 244 yards, which equates to 1.2 yards per pass play. Michigan quarterback Chad Henne has averaged 7.4 yppp for the season against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback, but he has averaged just 5.3 yppp in two games without Manningham, against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yppp to an average QB. So, the Michigan pass attack has actually +0.4 yppp without Manningham instead of +1.7 yppp, which is a difference of 1.3 yppp – pretty close to my estimate. Without the deep threat to scare them, opposing defenses can now put one of their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to defend the run and Michigan’s offense has been just 0.2 yppl better than average the last two games (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 4.5 yppl to an average attack). When Michigan gets a lead they are likely to simply run the football and that is an advantage for a Northwestern defense that is good defending the run (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp) and not so good defending the pass (1.0 yppp worse than average). The Wildcats are without their leading tackler Nick Roach, who got hurt last week, and my research calculates his value at about 0.2 yppl based on his defensive stats. With all the adjustments my math model favors Michigan by just 26 points in this game and teams that defend the run better than average are very good bets as huge underdogs. In fact, Northwestern applies to an 82-26-1 ATS big dog statistical indicator that is based on that premise. The Wildcats also apply to a decent 57-21-2 ATS indicator that plays on big underdogs with bad pointspread records. Keeping this from being a very strong play is a negative 155-243-5 ATS situation that also applies to Northwestern, but that situation has intersected with te 82-26-1 ATS situation 4 times and the record is 3-1 ATS in those games.
I’ll consider Northwestern a Strong Opinion at +30 points or more and I’ll take Northwestern in a 2-Star Best Bet at +32 points or more.
OREGON ST. (+12.0) 17 USC 23
28-Oct-06 12:30 PM Pacific Time
See my write up for this game on my free pages.
NEVADA (-16.5) 43 New Mexico St. 20
28-Oct-06 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Nevada is 9-0 ATS as a home favorite under coach Chris Ault and I see no reason why I shouldn’t back the Wolf Pack here. Nevada is a decent team, rating as 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl), but they have a huge advantage from the line of scrimmage against the Aggies. New Mexico State has a better than average offense (6.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team), but the Aggies are horrible defensively (6.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average team) and the Wolf Pack should eventually pull away. Nevada was without starting quarterback Jeff Rowe in last week’s 23-7 win over San Jose State, but backup Travis Moore actually has a slightly higher compensated yards per pass average in his 43 pass plays this season and Rowe says he’s likely to play this week. My math model favors Nevada by 19 ½ points and New Mexico State applies to a negative 17-59-1 ATS situation. New Mexico State has been playing better than my math model has been forecasting and another math tool I use favors Nevada by just 15 points in this game, so I’m hesitant to make Nevada a Best Bet at the current number.
I’ll consider Nevada a Strong Opinion at -18 points or less and a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes down to -16 points or less.
SAN JOSE ST. (-8.5) 37 Louisiana Tech 21
28-Oct-06 03:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisiana Tech is coming off a win over lowly Utah State, but the Bulldogs are just 3-20 ATS in their last 23 games following a victory, including 1-17 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .333 or higher. San Jose State is coming off a poor offensive showing at Nevada, but the Spartans are 0.2 yards per play better than average for the season and they have averaged 7.0 yards per play in 3 games against bad defensive teams (Stanford, San Diego State, and Utah State). San Jose State should move the ball easily against a Louisiana Tech defense that has allowed 6.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Louisiana Tech rates at 0.4 yppl better than average offensively now that freshman Daniel Porter has been discovered. Port didn’t play in the first 3 games of the season, but he’s gained 329 yards on just 48 carries over the last 4 games and ran for 178 yards on 24 carries in last week’s win. San Jose State is 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense), but Louisiana Tech’s 0.6 yppl advantage over the Spartans’ defense is not nearly as much as San Jose’s 1.5 yppl advantage over the Bulldogs’ defense. Overall my math model favors San Jose State by 12 points and the team trend against Louisiana Tech is worth a few points.
I’ll consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less.
Arizona St. (+1) 30 WASHINGTON 24
28-Oct-06 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Washington will have a tough time focusing on this game while spending most of the week thinking about what could have been after pushing Cal to overtime in Berkeley before finally succumbing. Teams that suffer close losses as big favorites one week usually struggle the next week and Washington applies to a negative 61-136-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. That angle is 27-80 ATS when applying to the home team and the Huskies aren’t as good with Carl Bonnell at quarterback in place of the injured Isaiah Stanback. Bonnell takes far too many chances down the field, which led to some long completions but also to 5 interceptions in last week’s loss to the Bears. Bonnell had the same problems when he started a couple of games in 2004 and he now has thrown 9 interceptions in just 99 career pass attempts. He’s not likely to continue to throw interceptions at that high of a rate, but he’s certainly likely to throw them more than an average quarterback does and Bonnell has still averaged just 4.4 yards per pass play during his career. Since I’m looking at going against Washington, I’ll assume that Bonnell is going to throw the ball at the better than average level that he showed last week. Bonnell has averaged 5.9 yards per pass play this season if you exclude the lucky 40 yard Hail Mary touchdown at the end of regulation last week (3 Cal defenders all went up to intercept it and they deflected it right to a Washington receiver for a game tying TD), and he’s done so against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers are 0.4 yppp worse than Stanback and I don’t think the Bonnell will maintain a better than average rating for much longer. However, I’ll assume that he is 0.5 yppp better than average and that gives Washington an offensive rating of 0.5 yards per play better than average. Arizona State has been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively this season, so the Huskies would have an advantage if Bonnell plays at the level he’s played so far (although his interceptions hurt the Huskies). Arizona State’s offense is starting to play better again after a horrible few weeks for quarterback Rudy Carpenter. Carpenter threw 4 interceptions against Cal and then totaled just 8 yards on 25 pass plays the next week against Oregon before starting to play better recently. Carpenter led the NCAA in pass efficiency last season, so he is certainly capable of posting good numbers and he still has been 0.4 yppp better than average this season even with those bad weeks (6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB). The Sun Devils have a good rushing attack to help out Carpenter (5.3 ypr) and overall they have been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively with Carpenter in the game (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). Washington continues to play bad defense and the Huskies are now 0.3 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball for the season (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Arizona State has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, an advantage in projected turnovers and an advantage in special teams. It all adds up to my math model favoring ASU by 2 points. The only negative is a 146-85 ATS statistical indicator that favors Washington. The 27-80 ATS situation applying to the Huskies is much stronger, but I’ll pass on making ASU a Best Bet.
I’ll consider the Sun Devils a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.
TEXAS TECH (+12.0) 21 Texas 27
28-Oct-06 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Texas was lucky to win last week at Nebraska, as they were out-gained 4.8 yards per play to 6.4 yppl while taking advantage of a +2 in turnover margin. The Longhorns appear to be overrated and their defense has not been able to stop a decent offense all season long. Texas has allowed only 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, which is hardly dominating, and the Longhorns have allowed 5.6 yppl to all 4 teams that they’ve faced that are mediocre or better offensively (Ohio State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Nebraska) while dominating sub-par offensive teams North Texas, Rice, Iowa State and Samford. In those 4 games against average or better offensive teams, the Longhorns have allowed 6.0 yppl, which is just average considering that those 4 teams would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. Texas Tech’s offense has been 1.1 yppl better than average this season with quarterback Graham Harrell in the game (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), but they can also be accused of building up their rating against bad defensive teams. The Red Raiders have averaged just 4.9 yppl against better than average defensive teams TCU, Missouri, and Colorado – who would combine to allow 4.8 yppl to an average team. My math model takes all of that into account and projects Texas Tech to average 5.9 yppl in this game. That is more than what the Texas offense is likely to get against a solid Red Raiders’ defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. Excluding their game against Samford, when they rested some offensive starters, the Longhorns’ offense has averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team – so their offense rates that same as the Texas Tech defense and my math model projects a modest 5.2 yppl for Texas in this game. The Longhorns do have an edge in projected turnovers and a huge 7.8 points advantage in special teams, but the overall math favors Texas by only 5 ½ points in this game. Unfortunately, the Longhorns apply to a 314-167-11 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is a bit stronger than a 97-47-5 ATS situation that applies to Texas Tech.
I’ll consider Texas Tech a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take Texas Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 or more.
