Discussion - Thursday Cleveland at Cincinnati

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
What do you like and why?

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]8:25 PM EST
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]109 CLEVELAND BROWNS
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]44o05[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]44.5 / 45 / 45u13[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]44.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+220[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"][/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]110 CINCINNATI BENGALS[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-6 -03[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-6 -03 / -6 / -6.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-6 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-265[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"][/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]TV: NFL, DTV: 212 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS. WEST WIND 11-16. GAME TEMP 45, RH 73% WIND CHILL 39
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[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Team Totals
Cleveland 19.5
Cincinnati 25.5
 
Cleveland +6 over Bengals.
Both teams are in this for a division lead. Bengals are not playing as well as they played in the first 3 games to start the season. Cleveland has not looked good in 3 of their last 4 wins. Losing Alex Mack has killed the run game for Cleveland. Last year when Hoyer was at QB for Cleve he won 17-6. Without him Cleveland lost 41-20. This one should be close all day with each team having a chance to win SU. I'll take the points.
 
The thing that scares me about the Brownies is that they haven't won a division road game since 2008, which was against these Bengals. That's an 0-17 span. Granted, they don't have to win, merely keep it close, but when I take dogs, I like to think they might have a chance at an upset.
 
I'm leaning to the Bengals here...what is The severity of Hawkins injury? Seeing conflicting reports.

Browns have just had such an easy schedule. They have had some good showings either winning or keeping it close, but still their numbers are pretty poor considering the schedule.

Bengals seem to be a team that will beat up on lesser teams, especially at home. They have dd wins against the falcons, jags, and titans at home...

Bengal d is far from impressive and no Burfict, but you have a Browns team w almost zero weapons. No run game lately, so should simplify things for the D.

hate backing Dalton, but you have to accept a bone headed int or two, but against this D, they should be able to control it w a steady diet of running w either Gio (status?) or Hill
 
These Thursday games are getting frustrating. This is another bad game. Another heavy favorite who will get all of the public bets. I believe favorites have covered all but two Thursday games this season (Of course, I was on the dog in those 2 games). I'd lean on the dog again, especially if there's a possibility of buying to 7 at a reasonable price.
 
i don't trust the Bengals and don't think the Browns should have the record they do so it's a stay away.

Like both defenses and think the CLE conservative gameplan fits in nicely if they don't fall behind early. Haden vs A.J. should be fun to watch so under for me if anything
 
GWarner27 said:
i don't trust the Bengals and don't think the Browns should have the record they do so it's a stay away.

Like both defenses and think the CLE conservative gameplan fits in nicely if they don't fall behind early. Haden vs A.J. should be fun to watch so under for me if anything
Click to expand...

pretty much sums it up.
 
GWarner27 said:
i don't trust the Bengals and don't think the Browns should have the record they do so it's a stay away.

Like both defenses and think the CLE conservative gameplan fits in nicely if they don't fall behind early. Haden vs A.J. should be fun to watch so under for me if anything
Click to expand...



Well I'll add some more here. Both teams have winning records so either one could be trusted. But more importanttly Cleveland truly could be sitting here at 7-1. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh but lost by a FG. They had the Ravens beat but gave up one long pass which happened to be just before time ran out that gave the Ravens a last second FG. If the Bengals dont play their best game today, (which I think they wont), Cleveland will win this one. On the other hand - looking down the road, Cleveland could win the division with a win today because they then have Cincy at home and one game remaining with Balty.

In those two games on the horizon they are going to get Josh Gorden back and for the final 6 games of the season he will make a huge impact. The Browns have enough receivers right now to beat Cincy. The Bengals arent that good at this time themselves so this is a very winnable game for the road team tonight. One more advantage is that Hoyer doesnt throw many INTs so he wont self destruct like other teams have done against the Bengals this season so far. Oh and don't forget, all they need is one trick play from Johnny Football if needed...
 
Fondybadger said:
Don't discount the fact how badly losing Mack should effect Cleveland
Click to expand...

It has had a negative result so far, but the browns have a couple good rb's and they will find a run game for this one I believe,
 
Neither defense can be trusted, neither offense can be trusted. Divisional games are a different beast where shit can get cray-cray.

Pass.

Gun 2 Head - Bungles.
 
Browns games lately have been consistently ugly and they have successfully dragged their opponents into the muck, so this should fit right in for Thursday Night Football.
 
Greg Little said this week that he's going to make the Browns pay.
 
-6.5 faves are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) on the season. Strongest cover rate of all spreads with 5+ samples.
 
emkee said:
-6.5 faves are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) on the season. Strongest cover rate of all spreads with 5+ samples.
Click to expand...

How about 6 & 7? Those are the two lines I got Cle at. Kind of a silly stat if you ask me given that line could go 1/2 either way quite easily. No offense meant dude.
 
No one has mentioned it, but its a great story about Devon Still and his cancer stricken Daughter. She wants to see him do the Robot dance after he makes a play. The patriots gave him a pretty awesome pregame tribute earlier this year.
 
that is true Mo...that is a bit of an emotional edge for the Bengals.

And a very classy move by the Pats too
 
Zeke said:
How about 6 & 7? Those are the two lines I got Cle at. Kind of a silly stat if you ask me given that line could go 1/2 either way quite easily. No offense meant dude.
Click to expand...


I don't think its really a silly stat…if it ends on 6, then it doesn't apply and has a diff ads record. If you look at -5 favs and -3 favs you'll find some surprising ats records too. I think its something to consider :shake:
 
Tito said:
I don't think its really a silly stat…if it ends on 6, then it doesn't apply and has a diff ads record. If you look at -5 favs and -3 favs you'll find some surprising ats records too. I think its something to consider :shake:
Click to expand...

Don't totally disagree Tito. My point is we don't know where that line closes til the betting window closes. If you use 6 or 7 as the sample it could be way different.
 
Zeke said:
Don't totally disagree Tito. My point is we don't know where that line closes til the betting window closes. If you use 6 or 7 as the sample it could be way different.
Click to expand...


true…i think he was stating it bc it had been sitting at 6.5 for some time though…of course it dropped to -6 immediately after I bought it down to -6, grrrr :enraged:




gl tonight zeke :cheers3:
 
just saying their leading receiver is out, on a poor offensive team thats been having real issues running the ball. thats all i was saying, i thought it was pretty significant. but I guess i am wrong. gl tonight slaptron
 
Kinda like jermaine gresham under 3.5 receptions...knee issues this week and AJ green back in lineup will help this possibly limit time etc ..also like terrance west over 42 yards...he is takin over slowly in,the backfield as evidenced last week earlier in,the year he also did well 42 yards aint much if h e,gets the touches which he shall.
 
okkk, i was wrong. does not matter about Hawkins, Gordon or anyone…Bengals look so bad they would lose this game against anyone in the league. This team is looking embarrassingly bad. Terrible.
 
Tito said:
okkk, i was wrong. does not matter about Hawkins, Gordon or anyone…Bengals look so bad they would lose this game against anyone in the league. This team is looking embarrassingly bad. Terrible.
Click to expand...

Newhouse is killing them at RT
 
[video=youtube_share;QlIzqROCHVE]http://youtu.be/QlIzqROCHVE[/video]
 
Dalton had to have been on the take. No way someone can be that inconsistent with as much experience he has as a starter.
 
Eri8923 said:
Dalton had to have been on the take. No way someone can be that inconsistent with as much experience he has as a starter.
Click to expand...

He signed a $100M contract, what in the world would he be 'on the take' for? He was that inconsistent and horrible last night. It happens, guys have bad games. He may not be worth the money they're paying him, but he's getting paid, so he's definitely not on the take.
 
we're still good


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I didnt see the Bengals playing so poorly and thought it would be closer with Cleveland winning, but at the same time the Browns got the running game going as I predicted.
What was finally realized now is that Skrine has played as expected for the first time this year on defense. Take notice now that the Browns could likely win the division and when Gordon comes back, after the Houston game, Cleveland could go 6-0 or 5-1 on the final 6 games of the regular season barring injuries,. The browns do have 4 of the final six on the road but the only road game with a question will be how the Ravens are playing in the final week of the regular season.

The Houston game on deck, is going to be a real challenge just because of all the excitement that transpired in the win over the Bengals. Much like when Cleveland Smashed the Steelers and then walked into Jville over confident. If they win against Houston which they should, then the streak will begin, IMO>

last note. Although Cincy played badly most of it was due to the defensive pass coverage. Dalton with 86 passing yards was not an accident in total. The Bengals couldnt out run or get away from those DB'ss on the Cleveland defense.
 
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