Week 1 Discussion Thread

Thinking of being rather square week 1.

Bills
9ers
Pats

The juice in the building for the Bills will be enormous. Steelers will be fine but maybe just not today.

I don’t fear Goff, OL, or TEs against the 9ers defense. Fast QBs and speedsters over the top are far more of a concern. Warner can blank TJ if that’s what they choose.

Bill wouldn’t have booted Cam if he didn’t love what he saw out of Mac. Cam was worthless after Covid last year and they still were playing right with Miami, in Miami, when they had nothing to play for and Miami was in playoff mode. 100+ million in additions, half the defense back from opting out, and a QB upgrade means this team will be legit.
 
Jimmy’s feet looked rather unsettled in the preseason though. I’m hoping having Mack and Trent there and the running game will settle things down.
 
Inspekdah said:
Thinking of being rather square week 1.

Bills
9ers
Pats

The juice in the building for the Bills will be enormous. Steelers will be fine but maybe just not today.

I don’t fear Goff, OL, or TEs against the 9ers defense. Fast QBs and speedsters over the top are far more of a concern. Warner can blank TJ if that’s what they choose.

Bill wouldn’t have booted Cam if he didn’t love what he saw out of Mac. Cam was worthless after Covid last year and they still were playing right with Miami, in Miami, when they had nothing to play for and Miami was in playoff mode. 100+ million in additions, half the defense back from opting out, and a QB upgrade means this team will be legit.
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I think pats the best play on the board. I think Flores is great but I dunno why ppl think Mac will struggle any more vs his d than Tua will vs hoody? Imo Tua isn’t any more advanced than Mac just cause he played few games without crowds last year! Tua doesn’t have as good of teachers, Isn’t blessed with the offensive line and run game Mac n cheese is. To me it crazy they implying game a pk on a neutral field, I do see pats starting to take some money so might wanna grab sooner than later.
 
I may be the only person alive who isn’t madly in love with the Patriots. Are we forgetting that they have a rookie QB who has never seen any pressure in his life? I don’t give a rats ass what he’s done in the preseason, he’s going to be seeing things he’s never seen before come 4pm. And that New England defense may take a while to get a bit…just seeing way too many people on NE today as if this was a team with a proven leader. Kid is going to take time to develop if he does at all.
 
scarf31 said:
I may be the only person alive who isn’t madly in love with the Patriots. Are we forgetting that they have a rookie QB who has never seen any pressure in his life? I don’t give a rats ass what he’s done in the preseason, he’s going to be seeing things he’s never seen before come 4pm. And that New England defense may take a while to get a bit…just seeing way too many people on NE today as if this was a team with a proven leader. Kid is going to take time to develop if he does at all.
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they have proven leadership all around and my thing is this. Fine Mac a rookie but he has very good coaches and a great o line. Imo Tua is no more advanced than him amd his line sucks and he facing the coach who gives young QBs nightmares.
 
I think Miami takes a step back this season unless Tua isn't the scrub I believe him to be. As a Jets fan I am quite happy they picked Tua over Herbert. The Bills will win this division easily.
 
Tua’s struggles last year had a HUGE amount to do with the fact he didn’t have a stone wall O line and multiple stud receivers catching anything he threw. I don’t think Mac is better than Tua and I’d be shocked if they weren’t vanilla as hell today. Dolphins D is not getting enough credit here…that number is low r a reason kids.
 
scarf31 said:
Tua’s struggles last year had a HUGE amount to do with the fact he didn’t have a stone wall O line and multiple stud receivers catching anything he threw. I don’t think Mac is better than Tua and I’d be shocked if they weren’t vanilla as hell today. Dolphins D is not getting enough credit here…that number is low r a reason kids.
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both defenses are really good. Tua still doesn’t have a good line and I don’t think the handful of games he has played makes him any more prepared to play pats d at home. I’m not sure Mac is better but I’m pretty confident they equal. Line also moving up for a reason.
 
Going to be great to have it back today…going to be so much overreaction to every little thing. This league is bananas.

Surprised GB is as low as it is for them essentially having a neutral site game. Think there’s some value there.
 
scarf31 said:
Going to be great to have it back today…going to be so much overreaction to every little thing. This league is bananas.

Surprised GB is as low as it is for them essentially having a neutral site game. Think there’s some value there.
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it does seem odd to me that Packers line didn’t change all that much considering they were scheduled to play at one the toughest road venues and now they not. If it was -3 at no shouldnt it be like -6 now?
 
Yeah that Packers line seems off about 3 points.

Pats led 9-7 last year in Miami going into the 4th quarter in a game where they allowed 250 rushing yards!

Mac is already better than Tua and post Covid Cam.
 
KJ said:
So under?
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I hate totals. They should have their way defensively. 9ers running game is hard to cap as under/over. They beat Aaron Rodgers and the game I think went over when they threw 7 passes.

They also seem to have success in domes offensively but that’s just off the top of my head at Saints.
 
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Inspekdah said:
Jimmy’s feet looked rather unsettled in the preseason though. I’m hoping having Mack and Trent there and the running game will settle things down.
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im not real convinced this whole Trey thing is good for him. No matter what anyone says bout situation I can’t believe having your replacement not only drafted but also taking snaps from you is the best way to get most optimal performance. I still love niners for the season cause they so loaded and I think eventually it be Lance team. Not convinced it looks great early on tho, thought it felt choppy in preseason.
 
2daBank said:
im not real convinced this whole Trey thing is good for him. No matter what anyone says bout situation I can’t believe having your replacement not only drafted but also taking snaps from you is the best way to get most optimal performance. I still love niners for the season cause they so loaded and I think eventually it be Lance team. Not convinced it looks great early on tho, thought it felt choppy in preseason.
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I think Jimmy is happy to still be on this team and I think if anyone can pull off the wildcat sub package it’s Kyle. It’s not a 2 QB system by any means but less snaps for Jimmy means he’s less likely to get hurt. Jimmy makes almost $30 million a year he can sulk playing for a SB contender with his money.
 
C-MAN said:
I’m a couple miles from the stadium and weather in Buffalo could be an issue. 40% chance of rain and windy.
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Just saw weather and they said maybe a storm late in the game or it could hit after...but I get how fast that can change there
 
Inspekdah said:
I think Jimmy is happy to still be on this team and I think if anyone can pull off the wildcat sub package it’s Kyle. It’s not a 2 QB system by any means but less snaps for Jimmy means he’s less likely to get hurt. Jimmy makes almost $30 million a year he can sulk playing for a SB contender with his money.
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lol. I almost mentioned the money and SB contenders, I get it. I’m certainly not shedding a tear for him I’m just saying no matter what kind of face he puts on I still think it could be in his head which in turn effects his play. I dunno how it wouldn’t honestly, if he cares which I’m sure he does. Agree if anyone pull it off Shanny the guy to do it but I can’t change what I always thought bout teams who play 2 QBs just cause I like this coach. Far as making it more likely Jimmy stays healthy I guess that hard to argue against in theory cause less plays = less chances for injury but it ain’t like he gets wear and tear injuries from grueling season, he just pulls up lame out of nowhere usually early in the year! Something wrong w his body, lol. I think ya’ll be better off when he does get hurt or benched. Not sure Trey ready but think he be more than fine in this offense.
 
Inspekdah said:
There sure seems to be a lot of love out there for the Texans and WFT
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just the football team for me. And I really thought Chargers would get way more love so that bums me out! Lol. Im only on the 1st half tho, just think it be tough for some these teams who didn’t give starters reps in preseason. Especially w new system or players (Chargers line) gotta take a minute to work the rust out imo, and they playing a nasty d-line!

I dunno how anyone bets either side of jags/hou? Although I think div home dogs week 1 a pretty strong trend play so assuming that lot of it.
 
Inspekdah said:
There sure seems to be a lot of love out there for the Texans and WFT
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Seeing 59% and 57% respectively but hard to use public data much for me in the first couple weeks

I'm damn near inclined to bet every over (but won't) til they start lining these games in the 60s
 
I don’t think it has been mentioned about NE, but their WR Corp was to be a bottom 5 in the league. OL will be good but that should be negated by the fact Mac has nobody to throw to. Not a big fan of their RBs either. Overall, not impressed with NE skill position players.
 
Dunno why he can’t throw to the te and rbs? It what the pats do. I think they have a fantastic rb group. I’ll take great line, good te’s, stable of rbs, over couple flashy wrs any day. Pats been winning without those for 20 years. Fuller won’t be playing today so Tua has a rookie and solid vet wr and not much else. If hoody can’t take that away I’ll happily hand my money over.
 
I'm not an NFL guy, but I did see every live snap taken by Tua and Mac in college. I tend to agree with those that think they are basically even right now, maybe even Mac slightly ahead as it pertains to playing the QB position at this level. I often make the comparison in terms of guitar players, and Tua is Hendrix while Mac is Mark Knopfler. One a virtuoso, the other very technically proficient. I've not seen many better throwers of the ball than Tua. It is just a joy to watch. But he does not process the game like Mac does, so I think he came in more NFL-ready than Tua. If Tua can get that part of the game down, his ceiling is much higher than Mac IMO, but on the flip side, his floor is lower. So in summary, if I need a 2 minute drive to win the game, give me Mac. If I need a one play miracle, give me Tua. I think Mac's game translates better to the NFL early in a career.
 
A lot of people will be teasing a rookie QB is Trey Lance (who came from North Dakota State) making his first start, on the road.

Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville also in his first game on the road laying points with a team that has lost 15 in a row and 21 of last 24.

In my opinion these are terrible bets. Im not calling on these dogs but sheesh there are better games.

I hope the niners lose.

Houston isnt going to win many game but this is one they have a chance

Best bets for me Cardinals, Patriots -3 and Saints.

4 team pleaser 45-1: Lions+2.5, Patriots-9.5, Saints -2.5,Cardinals-3.5

Lets see if the books steal all the Niners teaser money, along with my best bets
 
i don't see a ton anywhere on the Minny/Cincy game. Like, almost none.

I saw the ML early at -150, and thinking that it was gonna get up to 4 maybe w Burrow is coming off a completely blown up knee. I love the kid, but that is a lot to come back from. Cincy didn't exactly bolster that O-line either. He has some weapons in Tee and Boyd and Mixon, but Idk its still cincy. The line went up to -155, maybe -160 and now back down to -150. I feel like this is stinky as hell.

Thoughts on this game guys???
 
KJ said:
Seeing 59% and 57% respectively but hard to use public data much for me in the first couple weeks

I'm damn near inclined to bet every over (but won't) til they start lining these games in the 60s
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Yeah I didn’t mean to insinuate a high consensus. Just rather a surprising amount of support vs what I would think would be much less based on public perception of them and the teams they’re facing.
 
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Tito said:
i don't see a ton anywhere on the Minny/Cincy game. Like, almost none.

I saw the ML early at -150, and thinking that it was gonna get up to 4 maybe w Burrow is coming off a completely blown up knee. I love the kid, but that is a lot to come back from. Cincy didn't exactly bolster that O-line either. He has some weapons in Tee and Boyd and Mixon, but Idk its still cincy. The line went up to -155, maybe -160 and now back down to -150. I feel like this is stinky as hell.

Thoughts on this game guys???
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They’ll regret not drafting the T from Oregon and going after a WR who hasn’t played in years.
 
Tito said:
i don't see a ton anywhere on the Minny/Cincy game. Like, almost none.

I saw the ML early at -150, and thinking that it was gonna get up to 4 maybe w Burrow is coming off a completely blown up knee. I love the kid, but that is a lot to come back from. Cincy didn't exactly bolster that O-line either. He has some weapons in Tee and Boyd and Mixon, but Idk its still cincy. The line went up to -155, maybe -160 and now back down to -150. I feel like this is stinky as hell.

Thoughts on this game guys???
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Burrow also doesn’t seem to me to be the kind of guy who would thrive in practice or an exhibition on a rebuilt knee. He’s a gamer and I think whatever issues with the knee will be out of his head for the kick off.
 
Inspekdah said:
Burrow also doesn’t seem to me to be the kind of guy who would thrive in practice or an exhibition on a rebuilt knee. He’s a gamer and I think whatever issues with the knee will be out of his head for the kick off.
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I seriously don't know how good this guy will be after that. Flip a coin, he still wakes up having his livelihood being protected by the Bengals O Line every morning
 
Saw a few comments about public data... you know where the best public and most accurate exists in my opinion? Yahoo pick em. I always forget about it but you can see the tens to hundred of thousands of picks ATS in their system. I trust that more than thespread.com
 
rambler882 said:
Saw a few comments about public data... you know where the best public and most accurate exists in my opinion? Yahoo pick em. I always forget about it but you can see the tens to hundred of thousands of picks ATS in their system. I trust that more than thespread.com
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Used to use thespread years ago, not reliable at all imo
 
Last game Im eyeballing is Fins +3.5... was looking for a teaser partner bc already used up 49ers and I dont want another unit on Rams
 
Only public unders I see today are LAC/Wash, Miami/NE and they aren't a massive difference
 
scarf31 said:
Right idea…when EVERYONE is on a teaser…be scared…that’s why hand down this is the hardest of any sport / any level to bet on
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Worst part of NFL is week 1 when everyone has months to discuss how "tough" a schedule is based on last season, which means nothing imo
 
Think Det has a better chance to upset than Bears. At home, early start, Goff has familiarity with SF, good OL can offset pass rush. SF just has more ? for me.
 
KJ said:
Worst part of NFL is week 1 when everyone has months to discuss how "tough" a schedule is based on last season, which means nothing imo
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I’d counter that with no, it’s Week 2…where everyone takes the opening week games as if they are the layout for the entire season. No bigger overreaction week in sports
 
C-MAN said:
Think Det has a better chance to upset than Bears. At home, early start, Goff has familiarity with SF, good OL can offset pass rush. SF just has more ? for me.
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Ehh Bears have a good defense, are competitive whereas Lions are a bottom 3 team with a new HC v. a great one. Niners are healthy and loaded with talent.
 
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