December 4th

SF_capper

CTG addict
NJ -1- 3 units win
Indi +6 (+110)- 1 unit win
Atlanta +6 (+110)- 1 unit lose
Minnesota 1st H (-120)- 1 unit lose
Minnesota(+110)- 1 unit lose
Utah -3- 3 units lose
Milwaukee +2- 6 units win
Utah 2nd H pk (-120)- 4 units lose
2nd H Milwaukee -2.5 (-120)- 5 units win

4-5
+3.8 units

fuckin local not picking up the phone screwed me outta 3 units...

well haven't posted plays since Wednesday Nov 22 I think when I started a thread called Big Wednesday :). and like an idiot lost veery single game, lost my earnings for the season, lost my opportunity to go shopping and get myself a big screen on black friday, and lost pride to post plays. However, since then I've been on a sick sick run (until today). made everything back and some. key games being Detroit against Cleveland, GS over Phoenix and that over. umm Detroit the past couple games, a couple more, but enough of that. Lost on GS 2nd H big, and Charlotte 2nd H big (by 1 pt). Gonna start posting again. Kinda bored right now, so here's a couple of my leans for now for Tuesday

been playin ALOT more disciplined and will try to control my bets much more now. I feel my capping is not my problem, but like many others, is my money management

2m's card is not so interesting. However, one game I will play, regardless of the line, will be some nice road chalk!

Utah -? (I'm guessing 7.5ish) @ Sacramento

I am fully aware of how well Sacramento has been playing at Arco. Arco's has been in the past, and apparently still is, one of the strongest Homecourt atmosphere's/advantages in basketball. The crowd is always there and cheering, and the more wins they get, the more fans that'll come. However, this situation is too good to pass up. In preseason, if any1 remembers, Sac won a game at Utah and left their scouting reports of each Jazz player in the locker room. A couple of the strongest points were ," Carlos Boozer coasts on defense. Andrei Kirilenko will shoot three-pointers but you want to let him. He also will take bad shots if contested. Mehmet Okur doesn't like to be pushed around. Gordan Giricek is a poor defender. Jarron Collins doesn't block shots and flops in the paint."
There actually was a lot of compliments of each player as well, but you know human nature is to take offense when someone says anything bad about you, even if they throw in a lot of good as well. The players want to proove them wrong. Utah has been playing pretty decently (more on the offensive side) recently, but I think this is the game they bring some of that D that the Sacramento scouters said weren't there. Line's not out yet pending Ron's status. I don't really care much about Artest, because this isn't a matchups pick, but a situational/motivational spot for Utah. I guess I would want him in, kind of as a surprise too, so people can hop on Sac since "Artest is in! Sac has been KILLING at home...". Yes Utah's players played quite a bit today, and Sac is on rest, I'm aware of these things, but not affected.
 
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here's the article

How the Kings scouted the Jazz

Carlos Boozer coasts on defense. Andrei Kirilenko will shoot three-pointers but you want to let him. He also will take bad shots if contested. Mehmet Okur doesn't like to be pushed around. Gordan Giricek is a poor defender. Jarron Collins doesn't block shots and flops in the paint.

We know this because the Kings left multiple copies of their scouting report on a table in the press room after Thursday's preseason game at the University of New Mexico. They didn't even make it into the trash. Instead, they were left next to the fax machine alongside the box scores and game notes.

Here's a look at how the Kings evaluated the Jazz's personnel. C.J. Miles probably would be thrilled to know that somebody believes he's "Capable all the way to 3 range" when he's shooting 4-for-23 so far in the preseason. The Kings also judged that Kyrylo Fesenko has 18-foot range.

* * *

Deron Williams HOT 6-3 205 Good playmaking PG. Keep him out of lane. Strong body. Shoots it w/ 3 range. Strong crossover left to right. Takes & makes big difficult shots. Good defender. Take the ball out of his hands - - shadow - - & hit. Runs the team so we must control him.

Ronnie Brewer COLD 6-7 223 Outstanding athlete who really runs in transition for layups. Slasher (likes to go left), high flyer. Will take on a tough defensive assignment. Much improved from last year. Range is better on shot but make him prove consistency. Looking to score off of our floppy (11) w/strong dribble drives or curl jumpers.

Andrei Kirilenko COLD 6-9 223 Athletic. Very, very long. Versatile. Can play both forward spots. Runs both ends of the floor very well. Will shoot 3 (but let him) & slash to basket. Explosive ability. Good jumper. Very active going to glass. Must block out. Aggressive defender. Hard nosed player. Shot blocker. Takes ball to basket very strong. Range solid from 20'. Keep feet on fakes. Will take bad shots if contested. Shaky handle - - will turn it over.

Carlos Boozer COLD 6-8 258 Double-double player. Plays hard, within system on offense. Very physical, rugged body. Has range to 18'. Can put ball on floor to make a play. Prefers left hand. Great hands. Keep off ''o" glass. Can play both 4 & 5, but a natural 4. Go to guy on box. Excellent w/ both hands around the basket. Coast on defense - - go at him and make him defend.

Mehmet Okur HOT 6-11 263 Very skilled big. Has deep 3 range off their ''X'' & ''C'' high pnr [pick and roll] sets. Can also score in post. Good passer. Does not like to be played physical, so get into him. Good rebounder as well. Has a knack for the ball rather than overpowering opponents. Challenge shots & block out.

* * *

Ronnie Price COLD 6-2 190 Athletic PG who pushes the ball. As quick as any in the league from end to end. Must locate early, keep in front. 3pt range both on dribble and catch and shoot. Will finish on rim. Quick hands on defense, pressures full court.

Gordan Giricek HOT 6-6 220 Good all around player. Does not possess a great strength. Does everything fairly well. Play him straight up. Pressure him & he will turn it over. Shoots it with 3pt range. Good coming off down pins, alert to quick drives. ("11"). Be physical w him. Poor defender, go at him.

C.J. Miles COLD 6-6 220 Lefty. Capable all the way to 3 range. Long. Play his lh drive & challenge shots. Be physical with him. Dribble driver. Runs hard in transition and will finish on rim. Streaky shooter who is very capable of getting it going.

Paul Millsap COLD 6-8 258 A 4/3 with 18ft range. High energy. Pursues every ball. Beast on the glass. Great hands. Quick off his feet than he looks. Will block a shot. Can score w/ jumper in range or dribble drive. Quick baseline spin in the post. Runner in transition for lay-ups.

Jarron Collins COLD 6-11 239 Good pick-n-pop player to 16'. Will slip screens. Keep him off the "o" glass. Go @ him, not a shot blocker. Flops in the post.

* * *

Limited minute guys

Hart - - PG runs team. 18ft range. Pass 1st mentality. Almond - - Catch & shoot, 3 pt range. Runs floor. LT to shoot. Brown - - Pick & pop, 3pt range. Capable driver. ORB's. Harvey - - Great ath. Runner. ORB'er. Finishes on rim. Fesenko - - [7-]footer. Decent body. 18ft range. Finish on box. An ability to get to rim on dribble.
 
other small games of interest are Cleveland off 3 losses, but the scheduling isn't pretty for Cleveland

Milwaukee to take the first of this western trip over the struggling Clips.

a game I have circled is GS taking on Miami at home on Friday. Miami will be off a b2b hopefully getting a big W at Portland on TNT. Then there should be a big bet on GS against Miami. Shaq cannot keep with GS, and we should be able to blow em out by DDs. Miami throws too many sloppy passes, Wade isn't looking as aggressive as his old self. GS is superior in steals and forcing bad passes out of the post (Dwight got i think 9 TOs today?)
 
dammit. Didn't do my hw right. On November 12 Utah played Sac and won by 24. Dammit, didn't even notive this
 
I see you already saw what I would have wrote you back concerning the first meeting. I'm just hoping for a total in the 205 range as this over looks attractive to me. I have conflicting feelings about a side.
 
btw, was surprised you expected a -7', i expect a -5' and the others i respect expect lower than that. will be eager to see the opener on the total more than the side as well
 
wow looks like I was wayy off in the line. Thats embarassing. I was expecting 7.5 thinking this was their first game after the scouting report thing. Houston was -6 @ Sac a couple days ago. I think Utah would be a bit more respected by books. Wow line's down to 2.5. I guess its Sac or nothing with this line movement
 
gonna be on Milwaukee for bigger than expected on tilt. fuck NJ start 9-0. was gonna go 2 units NJ 1 unit Indi 2nd H. Need that online account...
 
agreed about the worst lines, but what I meant was watching the "reverse line movement" it seems "sharps" are on Sac. However, I might still play Utah

that's just speculation, a move from 4 to 2' isn't all that much in the scope of things, could be the books trying to hook chase money on sac at a worst line, if it were from 6 to 4', id be much more concerned
 
well, I'm trying not to put much stock into this, but so far (pending lakers who are up 19 near the end of the 3rd) road teams today are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS (assuming I lose minnesota). I am leaning strongly toward Utah and Milwaukee, pretty betting that all road teams win SU. feel kinda weird about this. I'm trying to ncinvince myself that other games have nothing to do with a current game, but its hard..
 
4 units on Utah 2nd H. expect the coaching to be the difference in this one in the 2nd H. Utah showing signs of getting ready to pull away. only concernt would be if early fouls limit minutes
 
Milwaukee with 8 off boards. shooting 35%. don't think Clips have the D to keep a team under 40% for over a full game. Milwaukee outboarding despite worse shooting. something a usually look for in HT bets.
 
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