Capping the NBA-Methodology and Discussion

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Austin is an astute student of all sports and loves to learn new things. He asked a question I get a lot tonight.."how do you cap the NBA"...so I deceided lets start a thread where we can all discuss our methods and perhaps learn something.

If you have a direct question for me..shoot it out. My ways are odd at times but they work mostly and this is like golf..a constant quest to get better.
 
I like to thnk of myself as a stuational bettor...I think you can pinpoint some large plays....Nuggets/Hawks before Melo's suspension comes to mind....

Also scheduling I look at....I realize that hindsight is 20/20, but bulls were playing 4 in 7 tonight...all on the road...Sactown was a bit more rested at home only laying 2...
 
Now I look at Lakers game tonight.

Initial subconscience thought..Lakers +4.5

Second thought...Lakers were 4.5 pt dogs to Wash...now they opened @ 5 to Detroit...makes sense to play Detroit....

I stuck with my initial reasoning though...I hate to believe in fixes..but man abotu 2 minutes into the game I knew Detroit woudl cover. Kobe was sloppy with a " I don't care attitude"..his lack of aggressivenes showed it...
 
so BAR...what do you look for when you look over a card...?
 
The NBA is 82 games long for each team. It is 7-8 months long for cappers. Actually it is 12 mos long for cappers who do well. You have to be on top of your game year round to be a successful NBA capper/selector.

I would classify myself as a situational capper at heart. I look for the best situations. I don't always go with what others would think is right. I am not a fade capper but at times will take that into consideration. I don't use trends to cap but tell me a team has lost 9 straight to end a road trip and I will take that into consideration. I am not a square. I consider myself after much hard work somewhat sharp. I also consider myself a more rounded handicapper each and every year. Methods evolve, number of plays per day shorten and goals become more important as time goes on.

Situations: A huge key in handicapping is taking into account situations. These can be times when teams are tired. These can be times when revenge is an angle. These can be times when a team plays its first game against a team that ousted them from playoffs previous year. Another example isn't team..its player. Kobe loses game outright and gets upstaged by Arenas at Staples. I make big play on Lakers the next time at Wash. It won easily. Now, that play was also set up by an ugly effort at Conseco night b4. If Lakers had won against Pacers I would have played 3 units, not 5 the next night. There are so many types of situattions to look for. We can start a thread just on those. My main thing outta this section is to LOOK AHEAD AT SCHEDULES

Rebounding: I am big into teams that can rebound the ball. Rebounding controls tempo, shot opportunities and also ignites fast breaks. The Blazers for years ruled this. The Warriors did as well a few years ago. This is why I am high on Utah. Memo and Booz suck on defense but they rebound so well. Milsap does too along with AK47. That is a big reason I bet on Utah a lot and why they have huge success against Phoenix and Detroit.
 
well yeah...props to BAR, but I am the type of person who likes to learn form others and be able to make his plays...collect his own thoughts...not have a crutch...I can only follow a sport so much but Hunt/C$/BAR/Killa might have some angle or insight that I didint see...so in turn I learn off of that and progress...
 
Now, I always break the NBA season down to a few parts. This year has been weird because I have won a shitload the last 33 days or so.

NOV-easy
April-Easy
Playoffs-pretty easy if you stay withinb yourself

inbetween is dog days..be carefull...most traps occur here.
 
April is some serious soft lines...people being benched, resting for playoffs etc.
 
one situation comes to mind...

Game 6 Suns@LAC....

Clipps in a must win situation at home, back to the wall...Phx would give the game a go but each team Suns pushed, CLipps had the answer and then some...I believe Livingston had 16 in the 1st half...Phx wouldnot give a full effort once they saw the game would be drastically out of reach and sicne LAC exerted so much energy in Game 6, they would be out of gas in Phx for GAME 7.

I picked this up form BetCrimes...similar to Dallas/houston...as well
 
so trying to make numerous plays this time of the year is not a good idea?
 
Exactly right man. I learned to mostly lay off first 2 games of each series in playoffs unless home team lost game 1. I went 9-0 in last years WC finals...that was nice..hehe...
 
yeah....i struggle reg season...but in that suns/clipps series i went 7-0 on sides....I am tryignto put it together in the reg season now...
 
Now...heres how I ended p taking Stons tonight.

Myself and a few cappas talked abount the low post game(s) both ways ands deceided DET would roll here. We also thought that the DET Bench could be effective vs LA

The x factor was Bryant. Prollem is he had to play defense tonight.

The last reasuring factor was so many guys on Lakers.

A local reasoning..this is type of game DET covers. Watch them play like dogs here b4 AS break against shit teams(sans spurs)
 
yup..every text I got from bar was a winner..especially the WC games.

I member siting in 96 degeree weather at Tigerws-Indians and callin your ass in the Beer line on a Sunday telling you to hammer Mavs +1 @ Phx

Big A came thru:smiley_acbe:
 
Ok, I'll give my information and insight in this thread, even though I'm not nearly experienced as guys like BAR, BDK, Bill, Philly, and MANY others...

I've learned a lot along the ways from these guys, and believe I know how they cap...I think this has made me a good capper since I started (and the results show it, I'm 8-3 since I actually started spending a lot of time sitting down and capping the games).

This is what I look at in order of importance.

1.) How have the team(s) played in their last 5 games? And how did the match-up go the first time they played? Are they hot/cold/or neutral.

2.) Who do the teams play in there next 3 games?

3.) Obviously I look at who's home/who's away...but I also look at how the team that is away has faired on the road their last few games (and are they on a big road trip?)...then I look to see how the home team plays at home (obviously certain teams have advantages, but some a lot more than others...Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento, etc.)


4.) I'm not sure if we're discussing totals in this topic...but when I look at totals the only thing I look at is how the teams have played in their last few games, and where the game is being played....thats pretty much it, and that should be it....nobody should look at early season trends, as they don't mean shit when the trend you're looking at is from 3 or 4 months before


...and of course I look at injuries and all that bullcrap...but thats a given...


Can't wait to see what others have to say, and hopefully chime in on what they think about the way I cap...
 
detroit playing like dogs...meaning shaving points...or as if it was the end of a season for a playoff spot?
 
I agree with BAR...this is the hardest time to Cap NBA because the season is too long...You get to this point and you have teams taking nights off because even though all the games count they think we dont need this one game so they dont go all out...I try to limit my NBA plays until these teams know where they are at in April when they need to win games...Love the Playoffs though my favorite time to cap NBA
 
any unconventional methods?
hat I want to admit?..nah..hehe

I mean...I felt solid tonight with DET with reasoning...but with all the Laker forum support I felt better.

The forum guys know their shit...but on a small card we can get a heavy imbalance one way
 
Stons seem to shave big spreads last year+.....and against good teams they cover..odd..or is it?
 
I tend to do well in NCAA hoops...do you think you need to stick to 1 sport wHether it be NCAA or NBA?

Could trying to cap the two interfere with each other?
 
I know hes got one unconventional method...Theres a certain capper over at Covers I think that he loves to fade when hes got a play but I havent figured out who it is yet:4_12_12:


Must be MiamiBoy
 
I know hes got one unconventional method...Theres a certain capper over at Covers I think that he loves to fade when hes got a play but I havent figured out who it is yet:4_12_12:

LMAO..if you refer to my sig...thats not me with that quote...its another guy here...and he is spot on.
 
I tend to do well in NCAA hoops...do you think you need to stick to 1 sport wHether it be NCAA or NBA?

Could trying to cap the two interfere with each other?
I think this is the perfect time to go at NCAA and right about when that finishes the NBA starts to get good
 
so as far as any certain stat being a factor, would you say rebounds are the biggest factor?
 
aight...thansk for the time to everyone....I am about to head out...been a long day...will be back once I get more questions!

:shake:
 
post....he is one of "those guys"/loves the Covers 3000 views....thats what a small dick does to yas ;)
 
i see u played boston....whats the reasoning?

only thing i can think of is that NJ shouldn't be laying points on the road???
 
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