$$CMoney$$
Don of Sepcon
LMAO...I guess his boyfriends dont mind it too much though:really_happy:post....he is one of "those guys"/loves the Covers 3000 views....thats what a small dick does to yas
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Capping the NBA-Methodology and Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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A
Austintx_05
Guest
I'm lost 
$$CMoney$$
Don of Sepcon
I actually think its a great spot for Boston...I really dont think NJ should be favored on the road against anybody right now
Handykapt
Pretty much a regular
Great thread, I basically cap only the NFL and have had winning seaons the last 3 years... I don't bet college sports ( can't see throwing cash on a bunch of overgrown high school kids )...So, learning from all you guys has really helped my NBA skills. Just a quick thanks to everyone who posts here... keep the info coming!
:cheers:
:cheers:
flounder101
Captain of the Million Dollar Fund
I'm gonna chime in here with my take on capping NBA. Some of this stuff applies to NFL as well. I'm not the best capper around. But, I've been doing this for a long time and I'm still playing with THEIR money.
Every team has its own style of play, which results from the coach's strategy of the game. Teams are built with players who fit the strategy by either their size or style of play, as part of a design to beat their toughest opponent.
Some teams are run-n-gun, while others are slow and methodical. It's the latter that rules. The rest are a mix and not outstanding at either because they either lack the size or the talent.
I can't handicap any and all games. I look for patterns resulting from previous matchups, from the past 2 or 3 years. When doing so, I always consider the schedule leading up to that matchup, as well.
I believe that history repeats from year to year, barring any major changes in teams. You can see the same results from year to year in certain match-ups. A lot of patterns are there, especially between teams from different divisions, who only play each other twice a year. In many cases, these games are for entertainment purposes only. You beat us at your house and we'll beat you in ours. The value in these games is where Vegas sets the line. The line is usually based on their performance leading up to the game and not previous years' results.
Coaches are what give teams their playing style. For example, Pat Riley, Jeff VanGundy, Phil Jackson are old school coaches. They learned from Chuck Daly that defense is key, and the best way to win is to play a slow, half-court game in which you control the paint. These teams usually end up in the playoffs and that's why the playoff games are so low-scoring.
I also look for situations where a run-n-gun team is cruising and runs into one of these good defensive teams, especially if the defensive team has been on the road doing some runnin'-n-gunnin' themselves, leading up to ends up as a train wreck in their house. Vegas has the line up around 200 and the result is something around 180.
Here's another old stand-by. Sacramento wins and covers at home on Sunday nights. Don't ask me why. It just happens. I can't tell you how many times they bailed me out, back in the day. Earlier this year they did lose one. But it was the first time in years that they didn't cover. Guess what? They're gonna do it again this weekend with a home and home against the Sonics. Shhhh!
I have a few rules that I try to follow. Don't bet against good teams and don't bet on bad ones. Don't bet while intoxicated. That's why drinks are free at casinos.
Good luck, guys and remember.......
Every team has its own style of play, which results from the coach's strategy of the game. Teams are built with players who fit the strategy by either their size or style of play, as part of a design to beat their toughest opponent.
Some teams are run-n-gun, while others are slow and methodical. It's the latter that rules. The rest are a mix and not outstanding at either because they either lack the size or the talent.
I can't handicap any and all games. I look for patterns resulting from previous matchups, from the past 2 or 3 years. When doing so, I always consider the schedule leading up to that matchup, as well.
I believe that history repeats from year to year, barring any major changes in teams. You can see the same results from year to year in certain match-ups. A lot of patterns are there, especially between teams from different divisions, who only play each other twice a year. In many cases, these games are for entertainment purposes only. You beat us at your house and we'll beat you in ours. The value in these games is where Vegas sets the line. The line is usually based on their performance leading up to the game and not previous years' results.
Coaches are what give teams their playing style. For example, Pat Riley, Jeff VanGundy, Phil Jackson are old school coaches. They learned from Chuck Daly that defense is key, and the best way to win is to play a slow, half-court game in which you control the paint. These teams usually end up in the playoffs and that's why the playoff games are so low-scoring.
I also look for situations where a run-n-gun team is cruising and runs into one of these good defensive teams, especially if the defensive team has been on the road doing some runnin'-n-gunnin' themselves, leading up to ends up as a train wreck in their house. Vegas has the line up around 200 and the result is something around 180.
Here's another old stand-by. Sacramento wins and covers at home on Sunday nights. Don't ask me why. It just happens. I can't tell you how many times they bailed me out, back in the day. Earlier this year they did lose one. But it was the first time in years that they didn't cover. Guess what? They're gonna do it again this weekend with a home and home against the Sonics. Shhhh!
I have a few rules that I try to follow. Don't bet against good teams and don't bet on bad ones. Don't bet while intoxicated. That's why drinks are free at casinos.
Good luck, guys and remember.......
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
I've always been a playoff bettor, that's where I do best. Don't ask why, perhaps it's the constant urgency of all teams that I cap well or the "unwritten rules" of the post-season that are just more readable. Still, regular season is a moneymaker as well, you just have to stay focused no matter the bad periods, and keep doing your thing. Of course, if you know your NBA and it has brought you substantial profit over a long period of time.
Now the methodology. I'm a situational bettor as well as some of the guys here, meaning I don't have a pattern I always look for when capping games, then pound the team when I finally find it. I'm adaptable, meaning I look for good spots vs bad spots (rest), team structure, I'm also into big teams more than small ball line-ups, into defense before offense, etc. But that's just finesse, fundamental pointers are the same (or similar) for most of the punters, so I won't write them all here, we all know what fundamental factors are.
It all really comes down to these things if you ask me:
1)How you 'read the game': you just have to watch it. Can't just keep on reading the stats and the recaps, many things will get passed you that way. If you think team A controls the tempo over team B and team A lays 4,5 (like BAR did last night for example), they will control the boards and team B has a great set of defenders who can make team A's superstar's life miserable, and you know they're always fired up playing against team B, then team A is the play.
You have to be good at estimating how the game will look at: who will impose the tempo, control the boards, step up, who's in a letdown moment, etc...
2)I for one am keen to think that the better team will win. Not every time of course, there are such things as letdown moments and awful periods (for a team), but we're all looking for mismatches and advantages that could turn out essential in the end. But it all comes down to value, the lines and the odds. You can't eat too many points all the time or you're end up frustrated on the long run due to back door covers or simply tied game situations. You can't get stuck into chasing huge dogs either. So choose wisely, be adaptable ,focus on which kind of bets you like taking the most, and follow your estimations, if you know how to estimate what the 'real line' should be, or how the game will look like once the teams hit the court.
Also watch line movement. Sometimes it can be indicative, even though at other times you'll have to be on the fade. Can't depend on the line movement all the time. But it does enable you to skip some games with fishy line shifts. Also you have to learn what the bookie is trying to tell you with a line, what do they expect? Remember, SN said it well the other day: the books are dealing with FIRSTHAND info and we're the ones who have to work with that. It's like a game of chess, we always play with the black figures.
3)Don't let your emotions get to your capping. Don't bet on your favorite team just because like them, don't hesitate to fade them if needed, don't bet when you're frustrated, coming off tough losses, big losing streaks, etc, if you can't remain focused and bounce back rather than falling in a bottomless pit. You have to know yourself, your psyche. Don't think that's not important.
4)Learn from your fellow punters. It doesn't mean that forums have become their own self-educating platforms, as one of the (now banned) members said not long ago, it means that looking at someone else's insight and discussing the game can, with time, alter your perception of the game, if it turns out that such insight was authentic, on the spot.
So with time you can turn your capping into a real diamond, the one that you've spent time working on, improving it, etc, nothing comes over night, there's a difference between pure gambling and capping.
Now the methodology. I'm a situational bettor as well as some of the guys here, meaning I don't have a pattern I always look for when capping games, then pound the team when I finally find it. I'm adaptable, meaning I look for good spots vs bad spots (rest), team structure, I'm also into big teams more than small ball line-ups, into defense before offense, etc. But that's just finesse, fundamental pointers are the same (or similar) for most of the punters, so I won't write them all here, we all know what fundamental factors are.
It all really comes down to these things if you ask me:
1)How you 'read the game': you just have to watch it. Can't just keep on reading the stats and the recaps, many things will get passed you that way. If you think team A controls the tempo over team B and team A lays 4,5 (like BAR did last night for example), they will control the boards and team B has a great set of defenders who can make team A's superstar's life miserable, and you know they're always fired up playing against team B, then team A is the play.
You have to be good at estimating how the game will look at: who will impose the tempo, control the boards, step up, who's in a letdown moment, etc...
2)I for one am keen to think that the better team will win. Not every time of course, there are such things as letdown moments and awful periods (for a team), but we're all looking for mismatches and advantages that could turn out essential in the end. But it all comes down to value, the lines and the odds. You can't eat too many points all the time or you're end up frustrated on the long run due to back door covers or simply tied game situations. You can't get stuck into chasing huge dogs either. So choose wisely, be adaptable ,focus on which kind of bets you like taking the most, and follow your estimations, if you know how to estimate what the 'real line' should be, or how the game will look like once the teams hit the court.
Also watch line movement. Sometimes it can be indicative, even though at other times you'll have to be on the fade. Can't depend on the line movement all the time. But it does enable you to skip some games with fishy line shifts. Also you have to learn what the bookie is trying to tell you with a line, what do they expect? Remember, SN said it well the other day: the books are dealing with FIRSTHAND info and we're the ones who have to work with that. It's like a game of chess, we always play with the black figures.
3)Don't let your emotions get to your capping. Don't bet on your favorite team just because like them, don't hesitate to fade them if needed, don't bet when you're frustrated, coming off tough losses, big losing streaks, etc, if you can't remain focused and bounce back rather than falling in a bottomless pit. You have to know yourself, your psyche. Don't think that's not important.
4)Learn from your fellow punters. It doesn't mean that forums have become their own self-educating platforms, as one of the (now banned) members said not long ago, it means that looking at someone else's insight and discussing the game can, with time, alter your perception of the game, if it turns out that such insight was authentic, on the spot.
So with time you can turn your capping into a real diamond, the one that you've spent time working on, improving it, etc, nothing comes over night, there's a difference between pure gambling and capping.
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Most important tool that you can use for capping the NBA IMO is a calendar. I'm serious here. If you can have the discipline to make an excel sheet with the entire schedule on one sheet and have 28 other excel sheets with individual team schedules you'd make money with that alone. Every year there are about 25 plays that 100% seperate themselves from the rest. Games like the Hawks/Nuggs and Bulls/Heat earlier this year. I'm pretty confident that you could hit 80% from those games alone.
From there you can easily scan team's schedules and pick at least ten games where a team could potentially be flat because of scheduling. Once the season starts there may be 3 games out of those 10 that really turn into solid plays. So if you're getting an average of 3 more plays out of 30 teams you'd find another 90 plays for the year. So at that point you have yourself about 125 plays for the season. Less than one a day, but you should theoritically only be playing the highest %'s.
Keep in mind I've never actually done it this way, but I'm pretty damn positive if you had the discipline you could hit a high % playing these scenarios.
From there you can easily scan team's schedules and pick at least ten games where a team could potentially be flat because of scheduling. Once the season starts there may be 3 games out of those 10 that really turn into solid plays. So if you're getting an average of 3 more plays out of 30 teams you'd find another 90 plays for the year. So at that point you have yourself about 125 plays for the season. Less than one a day, but you should theoritically only be playing the highest %'s.
Keep in mind I've never actually done it this way, but I'm pretty damn positive if you had the discipline you could hit a high % playing these scenarios.
B
Billivy
Guest
the first things i look for usually end up being schedule...how many games played in the last 5 days...how many games coming up in the next 3 days...then i'll look at where those games are being played, hoping to catch a team coming home from a long road schedule or out on the road for a one game trip. Then I'll take a look at recent games played, try and recall how each of those players are playing at the moment and try and not neglect the bench. I'll look at coaching, I'll take a look at recent matchup history between both teams and look for a motivational factor either way is possible. If there is a strong situational spot available on the card, I'll take a look at the numbers and then start matching up the teams offense to defense and vise versa. Its too hard to cap anything but one on one, soo all i try and do is calculate each starters score/bench scoring...add them up for both teams and out pops a side and a total prediction. If a play is strong, my line is as many as 8 points higher or lower than the side or total on the board at the moment. I usually play anything greater than a 4 point differential. Sometimes I grade plays as such and play the greater differentials higher...sometimes it's simply feel...then there are the plays where there is no lean one way or another by my conventional wisdoms and i place a bet strictly on what i believe to be a strong motivational factor that could have been overlooked by vegas or simply not possible to factor in due to public tendencies or ignorance.
PIPPENaintEZ
Member
Great thread..:fumeur7:
Huntdog...who's the avatar of? :23_5_126:
Huntdog...who's the avatar of? :23_5_126:
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