Bowl Games Season Long Thread




TroyStacks

TroyStacks

18" Pythons
I will post all selections in here and bump the thread each day if needed, plays will be in bold otherwise they are leans:

TCU-10 (bought it down for -140 for comfort)

USF-3 (buy it and feel good)

Kentucky+10

BYU-3

SJSU+3.5

Houston+7

Western Michigan+8.5
 
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I am breaking down each team in terms of passing,passing defense, rushing, rushing defense, turnover margin, 3rd down efficiency and 3rd down defense, penalties, total defense and scoring defense. I will also use my very specific trends that are constant as far back as you can go in bowl history regarding spreads and such that hit 70% consistently. I have put a lot of off season time in developing this procedure for bowl season specifically and hope thtat this will help everyone out. now for the matchups....



those are the 10 i use in addtion to my 70% spreads trends once lines come out.
 
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TCU/N.ILL: TCU has the edge in 9 out of 10 parameters and if we are lucky enough to see single digits this will be a big play for me.

Oregon/BYU: BYU holds an edge 8/10 over the ducks who have had a dissappointing season. Funny how karma catches up on them after that OU game and OU has gone on to the Fiesta bowl now haha. I'm positive Oregon will the favorite but BYU will win by atleast 7 points

Troy/Rice: This matchup is dead even 5/5 both ways. My decision on this line will likely depend on the spread and value in the dog. My lean is Troy only because they edge out the owls of Rice in all aspects concerning defense. Rice is ranked 100+ is defending the run and pass respectively. If I can catch 3.5 or better with Troy I will likely play them.

SJSU/NM: SJSU has a 7/10 egde over NM and I think we will get a great line and play on the spartans. Looking for -6 in favor of SJSU. They run the ball well and can play defense AND this is the first bowl game since I can remeber for these guys what a turn around from the pst few years.


This is all I have thus far waiting for the selection show tonite and get serious on this.
 
Stacks, I can always appreciate it when someone works offseason to utilize during the season. Definitely the sign of a winning handicapper.

Question re: your ten paramaters...do you tie it in any way to strength of schedule (SOS). Pretty sure Oregon played a MUCH tougher schedule than BYU, so unless they were CLEARLY superior to the Cougs (and they ain't), isn't it natural BYU would have edges in more categories?

Appreciate any response; SOS is a pretty large part of my bowl handicapping.
 
I have not taken SOS into consideration. nor have i considered motivational factor nor will I in bowl season with exception of mybe 1 or two games i.e. Miami/Nev something like that. I think motivation v. SOS have a way of cancelling each other out and looking at raw numbers is the way to begin in finding out which team actually has the edge. If you have any other questions or comment please let me know b/c if you feel I am totally off base I will go through and tweak what I have already done. And let me know quick dammit before lines come out and I have to got through all 32 again instead of the 3 I just completed hahahha.
 
I think SOS matters a lot. But its hard to tell how motivated a team will be. I mean do you think Miami is looking forward to playin on the blue turf?
 
i think so...they have a lot to play for. coker, fallen teamate and to prove to the media they are still the "U" even if they did have a mediocre year. I really like Miami and feel I iwll get a favorable line -2.5 or a pick. Miami got humiliated last year and that will not happen this time. coker goes out on top so to speak hahahha
 
I actually like both dogshit Florida-based schools in their bowls if the lines are what I think they will be.

Troy, I am definitely NOT suggesting anything regarding tweaking your system; I just wanted to know if you considered it, and while you say you don't, you are at least aware of it, esp when teams like Miami (fl) and Nevada meet.
 
Okay breifly capped evry fucking bowl game hahaha:

TCU-13
N.Ill

Oregon
BYU-6

Troy
Rice pk

NM
SJSU-5.5

Utah
Tulsa-4.5

ASU-2
Hawaii

CMU-2
MTSU

Cal
TAMU-7

GT-3.5
WVU

ECU
USF-2

FSU
UCLA-6.5

Clemson-8
KY

Tenn-1.5
PSU

AU
Neb-6

Rutgers-10
KSU

OSU
Ala-2

TT-6
Minny

OU-12.5
Boise

WF
Lou-7.5

Fla
tOSU-8

Nev
Miami-4

Mizzo
OreSt-5

WMU-6
Cincy

Navy
BC-7.5

MD
Purdue pk

Tex-8.5
Iowa

ND
LSU-9

USC
Michigan-6

UGA
VT-7

Ark
Wisky-3

Ohio
S.Miss-5


These are baed off my numbers and rankings as explained previously in this thread.
 
u forgot the uga game.. if pat white is healthy ga tech gets steam rolled
 
I'm too drugged up on medicine right now to comment too coherently, but as of now, I like your lines a lot.

Most of the bowl chalk looks good so far...
 
Just saw the line at -7 which needs a deeper look than -2. Will be researching this game over the month, see where the Houston mentality is at.. I can however say this with 100% confidence.....SC will be up for this game..
 
How'd SC's run D been? Thats where Cougar High has been gettin it done late in the year and has been the major factor in their win streak.
 
i will break down every single bowl game the day before and i will explain run d's and passing and all that good shit to help out
 
thanks stacks..do you see clemson line going above 11 or down under 11? I am debating wheter tot ake it now or wait?
 
i'm going to wait and see what happens tomorrow...i haven;t made any plays yet. i don;t like money tied up unless there is great value either. it hink a lot of the lines will hold strong for the most part and that dogs will get better value closer to game time. don't blow your load at one time now hahaha. i am eyeing kentucky and houston for now. hoping wisky will get up higher to the +3.5 range.alabama is another dog thats almost where i want it but theres many facotrs i have to consider int hat game.....psu line is too high i think should be around 3 points IMO.i like asu as i have them a fav on paper and paper only.mtsu i heard was +11 wow.....hey hunt what is your aim?
 
TroyStacks, so unless you see great value are you only gonna make plays on the day of bowl games?
 
Interesting..thanks stacks.

Lcebreaker21

yes, with an L.

I will be on in a bit, you gonna be up for awhile?
 
albyman32 said:
How'd SC's run D been? Thats where Cougar High has been gettin it done late in the year and has been the major factor in their win streak.
Click to expand...

Well, they are ranked 92nd in the country overall on rush defense at 147yds/game..

SC is a young team, I have said it many times and imo, they have shown great improvement throughout the season...

In the last four games they have faced two of the better rushing attacks in the country: Clemson and Arkansas..

Clemson: 33-181 (There were two TD's runs of 80 and 31yds, none the less, credit to Clemson RB's, those kids are fast)

Midd Tenn St: 32-81

Florida: 32-147

Arkansas: 50 -267 (I'm sorry but not many teams in the country can contain Arky for 50 attempts)..

I am sticking with my gut here, at -7 this is a play on SC for me..

Jackie Battle and Alrdige are a nice duo but they are not Davis/Spiller or McFadden/Jones..

As far as offense goes.. SC is playing real well there and the effort, minus the 97yd int return, was prob the best of the yr. Against a pretty tough Defense from Clemson, SC punted 1 time. They racked up 208yds rushing and 284 passing and had a +13 margin in First downs (28-15)..

I am going to look at this game very hard over the course of the next few weeks...
 
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leaning real hard ont he following dogs:

KY+10-Clemson has thrown in the towel IMO and KY can toss the rock and score

MTSU+11.5-CMU has lost their coach to fucking cincy hahaha thats funny....anyways way too many points here I think

WMU+8.5- waiting for this to be released again at cris cincy is done for
 
Hey Troy, just wanted to say thanks for the great info as it's appreciated and that I'll be looking for your selections. Like the Miami thoughts as well...I'm a huge fan and agree with your train of thought. Gotta say that I like Clemson in that one (it's still early and that line very well may go up IMO).

Thanks again and let's kick ass this Bowl Season!

:cheers:
:drink:
:drinking:
 
loving KY and WMU, already got Houston ticket..gl brotha.

remember, don't listen to the stat whores for Clemson, they did all that the first 8 games then went down after that..it's all bout heart now baby.
 
Agree with 2 of the 3.... GL, it should be interesting leading up to the bowls, I am trying to hold out for a week or so before placing some bets..

I don't plan to bet every game but for some odd reason I think I will have a little bit on most of them..
 
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