Anyone has system that works?

G

Guns-n-roses

Well-Known Member
I am wondering are there anyone who use a system that actually works in the long run in picking the sides or the total. I try out several systems myself but in the long run, it's just doesnt work. Anyone mind to share what system you are using and how is the outcome in the long run? any ideas are greatly appreciated.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Play against the line movement of the late night 2H's in NBA or CBB, especially if it's on TV.
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I think you would need a rather large sample size to prove this...otherwise its just sounds like one's opinion
 
I also tried something w/ 1Q bets on unpopular home dogs. It was doing GREAT, then lost a little. And I stopped tracking it since...
 
Do you mean going against the public in 2H? and do you keep track of how well it goes? thx for the input, will absolutely keep an eye of it.
 
Rooster said:
Do you mean going against the public in 2H? and do you keep track of how well it goes? thx for the input, will absolutely keep an eye of it.
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Nope, don't keep track. Its not really a system I use. Just from my experience, I've found it profitable. Check it out, see if it works. Can't hurt. GL
 
It's the idea that gamblers DO chase. So, when they are down on the night, they look to play the final game on the card to get some money back. Usually they rush a play and pick a play they initially had no interest in. So, they have no time to really make a conscious play. They usually grab the # that looks too easy.

And if it's on TV, especially the midnight games, some players might just look for some action they can watch, or might make a chase play they can watch.
 
I talked to Chaz about this the other night..

A system needs to be testewd out for awhile. Who has the patience to go thru a few seasons and track different systems?. Not many people. Many times this requires not betting on the games.

Betcrimes..yeah..most others no as far as patience.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Nope, don't keep track. Its not really a system I use. Just from my experience, I've found it profitable. Check it out, see if it works. Can't hurt. GL
Click to expand...

So you dont keep track and its not a system you use and you say its profitable based on your experience? I want somebody who is USING the system because it works and being keep tracked of, not because of experience. And btw, what do you mean going against the movement in 2H?
 
Yea Rooster. I guess your right. Against the movement is just if Dallas opens at -2 2H, and it goes up to -3, play on the other side.

But your right...Experience doesnt qualify a system.
 
basically beLIEve is saying that a lot of mofo's chase on the late TV games...so in essence its a pub fade

correct?
 
BeLIEve811 said:
It's the idea that gamblers DO chase. So, when they are down on the night, they look to play the final game on the card to get some money back. Usually they rush a play and pick a play they initially had no interest in. So, they have no time to really make a conscious play. They usually grab the # that looks too easy.

And if it's on TV, especially the midnight games, some players might just look for some action they can watch, or might make a chase play they can watch.
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Believe, those statements are absolutely right. I believe most of the chasers lost after getting desperate having to chase to cover the loss. Though, at this point we couldnt verify if its true as we dont have the FACT. Actually I got a system that I kept track of and it actually did pretty good but the problem is it doesnt show up everyday. In 2-3 days, there might be only 1 play or maybe even longer.
 
Believe, since you are a halftime player, do you base your play on the line movement or analysis on the game? I see you have a decent record and also BAR. I know BAR is more of an analysis capper so system might not work for him. Am I right , BAR :)
 
Rooster...yes for most part. I use one system this year..started it last year. Its 3-1 or 4-1 so far...and if played totally out its 5-1.
 
BAR, looking at your record you dont need to find a system again. Just keep doing your stuff and you are in a good shape.. BTW, What a nice tracking there by BC. So basically fading team going back home 2nd game after 4 game road trip is profitable, I am gonna keep an eye on it. Right now, I am looking for a system that shows up everyday and profitable.
 
thats his theory..second game back

My theory is this:

Consider a team goes out West/East for 4-5+ games. Their last game is on a Sunday. They return home and play on a Tuesday. They then follow that up with another road game(this time usually intra-conference) on a B2B off the first home game back. It basically makes that first home game back another road game.
 
Rooster, I can talk more tomorrow its getting late. BAR will tell you there's so much that can go into a play. I find that first thing's first. You gotta know who the fuck your betting on. You gotta know what each team offers from your own memory bank. The more you know, the less you have to base your plays on #'s or anything written down. That's why you'll see a lot of guys posting plays involving their hometown teams. Cause they actually SEE them game by game, and know exactly what they bring to the table.

My 1H plays are all based on angles. My 2H plays are 98% soley based on the opening 2H lines, movement, and the 1H #'s. From seeing so many 2H lines, especially with my short experience as a local bookie, I know what the 2H line's should be just based on the halftime score and what the full game line was. I feel this gives me at least a minor edge against Vegas.
 
B.A.R. said:
thats his theory..second game back

My theory is this:

Consider a team goes out West/East for 4-5+ games. Their last game is on a Sunday. They return home and play on a Tuesday. They then follow that up with another road game(this time usually intra-conference) on a B2B off the first home game back. It basically makes that first home game back another road game.
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So you are saying to take the team that return home and back to ROAD again on the 2nd game instead of at HOME? The problem with this system is it wont show up everyday or maybe just twice in a week.

Believe, I used to be a Cavs fan and watched most of their games. I can tell you I know most of the stuff they got. BUT actually it doesnt really affect the outcome in capping if you just based on that. that's what I am looking for a system without having to guess whether today King Lebron or Queen Lebron will show up today. But if that's really work for some of you, keep doing it, dont stop!!!

Just wanna add, this system MAY work. When you see something is too good to be true, then it is. Like Gtown only -3 to Syracuse today, and before the game, I really had that feeling that G Twn wont cover this game and you guys know what happen. and also how in the world Wisc only give 2 points to Mich State and we also knew what happen.
So, in short, if the line seemed too easy then go the other way. I am gonna keep track of this.

Well, its late here too. Talk to you guys again tomorrow and see if we can come up with some sort of a system that bring consistent winner.

:shake:
 
Rooster

Regarding the off 4+ games road trip stats, I see it more as a situational thing than as a system. The difference is that I dont see making a play based on those stats alone, however they may provide an entry to a potential play if other factors line up. I take the same attitude to the 230/100-100 situations, its not reason alone IMO to make a play (except some rare circumstances that produce heavy under numbers), other factors outside of those stats have to line up.

Thats why I dont believe in systems. Too many human factors involved, and all have to be reduced to variables, which are really only opinion/perception.
 
I might add theres only one system I've ever seen succeed - and that was fade joebren during that poster's great burnout in 05.
 
lol BC.

Personally, I don't have a "system" that I blindly follow and make dough on. I like certain spots, for example a mediocre team, or a team from the upper average echelon has JUST ended a huge, uncharacteristic winning streak for them, fade them the next game.

I'm a situational capper really. I know a lot of people tend to say that and some don't even know what it means, but it's all about the spot really. I have so much information coming in all the time, and we all have that internal CPU that processes all that info and tries to find the edge. It all comes to that really, how well do you cap games.

Nobody can tell you EXACTLY what they do when they cap, some elements need experience, some you just have to learn on your own skin, some you don't even know you factor in yet you do, basically my picks are all well backed (not necessarily by yours truly, someone else can do the job for me sometimes and point out a great pick) but basically I don't have a system which you just sit on and watch your wallet/online account get fatter and fatter.

Sorry :shake:


:D
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Rooster

Regarding the off 4+ games road trip stats, I see it more as a situational thing than as a system. The difference is that I dont see making a play based on those stats alone, however they may provide an entry to a potential play if other factors line up. I take the same attitude to the 230/100-100 situations, its not reason alone IMO to make a play (except some rare circumstances that produce heavy under numbers), other factors outside of those stats have to line up.

Thats why I dont believe in systems. Too many human factors involved, and all have to be reduced to variables, which are really only opinion/perception.
Click to expand...

what OTHER FACTORS do you mean? and do you mind to explain what 230/100 means? thanks

I disagree that in a system there are too many human factors involved. I think it should be the other way around. In a system pick, it wont involve any human factors instead it's kind of FIX play no matter what team play so for example if you live in Chicago, you cant back Bulls because if its doesnt match your system play. Just my .2 cents.

And tonight we got gators raped by Tennese and public are all over Gators with the line seemed too low. I really dont know what % is this system hits in the long run but it looked like most of the time it will hit.
 
Rooster, other factors simply mean, when considering for example teams off 230/100-100 games (see my stickied thread in this forum), where a/each team is regarding offense in recent games (coming off a long sequence of high scoring games where its perceived they're headed for a lull, or the opposite), what their scheduling situation is (3rd in 4? B2B?, 4th in 5?), etc. Its simply all the various aspects influencing the contest, not just the 230/100-100 situation alone.

My problems with systems is they inevitably require reducing all aspects involved - or that are being considered - to numbers. Some of those numbers are pure (ie, taken from stats derived directly from the teams involved) which is fine, but then other non-numerical factors have to be assigned a numerical weight (scheduling, opponent strength - they shoot better against weaker teams, worst vs better teams, ad infinitum - injuries) because ultimately systems are really glorified equations. You enter all your numbers into a "pot" then you "brew a soup". I simply dont see anyone getting those non numerical factors all weighted correctly to the stage (inside or outside of a specific math equation) where their system will work to the degree necessary.

Thats why to me they always fail. Either they havent got the complexity (number of factors being considered) required in the first place, and/or the non-numerical factors arent correctly weighted.

It just screams of too much work, and too much time when - dare I say it - there are easier ways.
 
brewers, that's what I am talking about!!!! :cheers:

BC, what you are saying is true. Actually the reason I want to find a system is because of that reason too. You dont need to KNOW ANYTHING about who is injured, who will win the matchup and other things cause we never know that star player will show up or not. One great example, Agent 0 promised he would score 50 points against Portland as he used to playing against that team and that day he scored his lowest points(maybe).

Now, lets say if my system is going against the public trap. for example, almost everyone is on gators and I just go with my system which says tennese and wagered it without having to know any stats or players. wasnt that better if it can hit in the long run? that's what I am trying to find right now. I will post my TRIAL play regarding this system starting tomorrow and see how it goes. It may takes time but once its proven, be ready for showtime. :wacka wacka:
 
its pretty much stock market rule #1. i see sports betting much as to how i see the stock market. the spreads and totals to me are nothing more then what the public makes them out to be.

however, i also like to look at the situational side of it as well.

i've only been sportsbetting for a year or so and havent broken out yet so im still trying to find what works best myself. right now im strictly reading the work of people i respect on this forum and on covers. then going about taking my own opinion and seeing what matches where. if my opinion is off i look for reasons why.

i believe that to truly be good in anything in life you need to seperate yourself from the norm and cant strictly rely on one certain aspect/criteria.

if everyone is buying, selling is a good starting point. however, again there is more to what meets the eye then just that IMO. but in terms of anything i think of as a system that is it (buy when pub sells, and vice versa).
 
talking about fading the public, does anyone know lets say the percentage show 70% on Miami but how do we know if the Big Time bettors is on the other side of 30 %, cause in this case then it will make more sense to back the 70% instead of the 30 %. Anyone know where to check on the wager amount on each side and also the total. Thanks in advance.
 
this whole fade the public talk is horseshit....

bottom line is you don't know the real %'s...no one is going to give you that accurate info...and its the blind leading the blind...

When you talk about public...YOU ARE PUBLIC...YOU SET THE LINES....

I am still waiting for someone to show show evidence as to how fading the public actually works....Would love to see a large sample size as to how it is PROVEN...

Just as you think fading the public in certain situations is profitable, the same can be said for your "square" bets as well....did you see Houston play last night....?

:an_roll_laugh:

Take a look around in forums all over the net...fading the public is "public"...its a very popular way to pick games...you actually are fading yourself :an_roll_laugh: But also look through diff sites on the net and see the records...they should speak for themselves...
 
I am still waiting for someone to show show evidence as to how fading the public actually works....Would love to see a large sample size as to how it is PROVEN...

very easy go to sports insights an look at tha square plays an how they have done since SI has been around. look at overalls for nfl,nba,ncaab,an ncaaf. then come on back an have this talk.

system wise in nba i basically use tha same system i use in ncaab,nfl, an ncaaf. pretty simple but works in mostly all sports. use that along wit normal cappin an fades
 
i thought u knew about how fadin tha public isnt profitable but u dont know what a square play is thats at SI? austin i see u always sayin how fadin never works, never is a bad way to put it.

si use to offer ammount of money in dollars bet on each game when they first got started, they still get that info but tha books stopped them from puttin tha data on tha net. they still get that info an use it to post square plays, basically tha biggest lopsided games each day money wise. lets say basically team a -19 35k bet on them team b +19 12k bet on them. squares in all tha main sports are up good this year besides ncaab. historically since si been around they are proven winners, thats a fact an u can look for urself. smh,blue,cruzer will all back me on that also cause i know they both been usin em for awhile now.
 
heres some for ya, ur gonan have up an down seasons its all about overall that i worry about. same thing week in week out in any sport, ups an downs i worry about overall for that season. its tha big picture

NFL square data

2003 27-19-3
2004 34-35
2005 26-27-1
2006 36-15-1

overall 123-96-5 56.16%
 
i know what a square play is...I am asking you how SI determines what a square play is...

your telling me that it's by lopsided money i see
 
yup biggest offset of money on tha game is a square. how bout we look at ncaaf?

NCAAF square data

2003 21-16-2
2004 30-21
2005 32-26-1
2006 33-22

overall 116-85-3 57.71%
 
how bout nba?

NBA Square data

03-04 211-176-7
04-05 148-120-3
05-06 111-94-7
06-07 84-70-2 up through yesterday

overall 554-460-19 54.63%
 
thats fine...personally i was talking about this subject last night with a buddy of mine...we both agreed the only sport we really saw a reason for was NFL.

I think NBA it would be the worst...i know im not gonna change anyone's mind here....I just think its an odd way picking games....

Does SI have anything further back than '03?
 
03 was when it fully opened an started to track each of those sports an database each. 4 years of proof is pretty good i think
 
No, it is. Looking at those numbers, I would say it has been profitable.
 
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