Florida* -13 -130 vs Louisville 390/300
Louisville/Florida* Under 49 -130 260/200... late posting this as the present line is 14.5 and 48. I do Not like Fla over -14 and I do not like the Under less than 47. The Ville brings the 100th-ranked rushing offense to the field against the Gators D, which has a good front four and good depth. Since Louisville ran for only 127 yards per game this season, the Cardinals aren’t likely to get much more than that, and could get a loss less. So, will Louisville quarterback QB Bridgewater be able to offset the lack of rushing production with a big passing game?? Maybe, but wouldn’t bet on it. Bridgewater’s 69% completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, 25-7 TD-INT ratio and 298 passing yards per game are very attractive numbers. But the Florida defense has allowed only 186 passing yards per game and only 5 TD passes this season, while intercepting 19 passes. The Gators held Johnny Football and the Texas A&M offense to 17 points on the road and they intercepted four-year starting QB Murray of Georgia (31-8 TD-INT) three times They intercepted senior QB Manuel of Florida State four times. Bridgewater is a sophomore. He still has mistakes to make, and the Florida defense should bring it out in him. Remember something: Bridgewater threw 3 INTs in Louisville’s bowl loss to NC State last season. Meanwhile, Louisville, besides being 100th-ranked in rushing offense, allowed 174 rushing yards per game in Big East play. The only team in the Big East that average as many rushing yards per game as Louisville allowed was Temple (201), and those were yards because Temple couldn’t pass. Florida rushed for 194 yards per game, and capped the regular season by rushing for 244 yards (5.2 per carry) against Florida State’s then-#2 ranked run defense. Florida has a 9-yard net edge in punt returns vs. Louisville, and Louisville’s 17.5 yards per kickoff return was sixth-lowest in the nation. Good field position will be hard to come by for Louisville. Florida has been an especially strong team after the first quarter this season, outscoring opponents 89-37 in the second quarter, 77-49 in the third, and putting the hammer down by a 115-29 count in the fourth so if ur a Ville fan, look @ the 1st qtr as a play. Grading this game, Fla easily comes out on top in all departments, except a slight edge to Villes QB.
There are some things that concern me about this play. And it is a Big motivational factor.Not many teams have been disrespected throughout this college football season than Louisville. It seems whatever the Cardinals did it wasn't good enough for those who followed college football. Now a win here in this game and Louisville can walk away with the final word here on their season and quiet all the doubters as well. Louisville has wins over North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Rutgers this season and keep in mind that they were still undefeated all the way up until November 10th. 3rd year head coach Charlie Strong has done a phenomenal job with this program and despite all of they have accomplished so far, his team comes into this game nearly two touchdown underdogs for this game.Louisville wants a strong showing here in this game. The Cardinals know that they still have something to prove as most folks just don't believe in them. Of all the bowl games out there this may be the one where a team is getting the least amount of respect when you look at what they have done so far this season.Again, I don't think Louisville wins this game outright, but the final score will be much close to a touchdown than some peps are predicting. The Cards pass defense is one of the better units in the country and they will force Florida into a one-dimensional offense. This is alright with the Gators as they do boast a solid rushing attack, but they won't be able to blow this game wide open by just running the ball. This is a much "bigger" game for Louisville than it is for Florida. The Gators had a chance to play in the National Championship game and now they are playing in a smaller BCS Bowl Game that they are a huge favorite in.
Florida became the team to bet on among CFB followers late in the season as the Gators pulled off a big upset over Florida St. If not for their forcing of five turnovers in that game, the Gators would have struggled to pull off that upset. The thing most seem to forget was just how poorly this team played in their games against Bowling Green, Missouri and ULL this year. They avoided having to play Alabama, caught A&M early in their new coaches 1st season, lost to Georgia and missed out on the two SEC up and coming teams with Mississippi and MississippiSt this year. Lastly keep in that for a team that went 11-1 on the season, only 4 of those 11 wins came by more than 14 points.
Bottom line thoughts. Louisville will have less than two TD's. Florida will score 4 TDs and maybe a couple of FG's. Just some thoughts and I may very well be wrong. I this line drops I will add more to Fla but for now, 3 U's is as much as I want to lay down
GLTA
