AFC Championship Game Discussion

Really thought, maybe just hoped, this would drop at 7 but I was at least close. Would love Big Ben getting a TD even though the Steelers evidently can't close the deal and get TD's.
 
Long range it looks clear John but in New England in January the forecast could change three times in a week.

Pitt/over/Atl/over in a sweetheart. I think Pats can pull it out but I'll certainly take 20 in this game over 7 in a ties-lose teaser.
 
Which team looked worse in their win? Pitt did, and that was Patriots worse game played in a while. Pittsburgh won't be able to score enough to beat the Patriots but they still pose a bigger threat then KC would of.
 
AB posting Tomlin getting real on facebook live probably didn't help the Steelers.
 
BB actually uses shit like that. He's an armchair psychologist.
 
Texans had some early success with Ming the Mercilus and Clowney beating interior lineman and getting in Brady's face. Pats figured it out and still hung 34 despite three turnovers. Steelers have no rushers of that caliber, rely much more on scheme to get guys coming unblocked or their bigger LBs against a RB. Patriots have already seen that show at Heinz, don't think they'll have a lot of trouble handling that at home.

Steelers will try to shorten the game like they did at KC, tons of Bell carries, control the clock. But its so hard to drive all the way to the end zone with that style. Game will be decided in the red zone, and I think Pats have the edge there. Steelers home red zone TD % is 2nd in the league, but road is 29th, biggest split by far in the league.
 
I think NFL sundays in future are going to be afternoon/primetime not morning/afternoon from now on

NBC’s @Steelers-@Chiefs is Most-Watched, Highest-Rated Primetime Playoff Ever in NFL Divisional & Wild Card Rounds
 
guaranteeed said:
I think NFL sundays in future are going to be afternoon/primetime not morning/afternoon from now on

NBC’s @Steelers-@Chiefs is Most-Watched, Highest-Rated Primetime Playoff Ever in NFL Divisional & Wild Card Rounds
Click to expand...



Interesting.

Thankfully they didn't look at CTG #'s. That group piled out into Politics forum around kickoff.
 
I took AFC -3 even in the Super Bowl, like either team to win it all.

Refuse to believe that Atlanta with that defense can win it all and if Green Bay beats the Falcons think Brady will pick apart that Packer secondary.

Of the 50 Super Bowl Champions, 42 finished the regular season in the top 10 in scoring defense, and 31 of them were top 5. New England finished first this season, Pitt 10th, Green Bay 20th and Atlanta 28th.
 
Ben has looked off because he doesn't have good weapons this year. Wheaton and Bryant are really good WR and made that offense hum last year. Beyond Brown this year he's throwing to Eli Rogers, Cobi Hamilton, and undrafted rook Ayers. That's not a good enough skill set to win in NE.

Belichick will take Brown or Bell out of the game. He's not letting both guys beat him.

Pats have a little more "seasoning" as well. Lot of youth on that PIT defense. PIT is going to be awesome next year with young guys growing on D and weapons back behind that OL, but right now in this matchup they are outgunned on both sides.
 
Betting Pitt.
just for my hate of tommy boy
what he did Saturday night was embarrassing. Crying over n over, looking to refs.
take a hit dude, it's fball

really think Bell the best player on the field wins it for Pittsburgh
 
guaranteeed said:
I think NFL sundays in future are going to be afternoon/primetime not morning/afternoon from now on

NBC’s @Steelers-@Chiefs is Most-Watched, Highest-Rated Primetime Playoff Ever in NFL Divisional & Wild Card Rounds
Click to expand...

Also the only one ever on a Sunday. Hollow bragging by NBC. 10 million flipped the channel from Cowboys-Pack to something other than Steelers-Chiefs.
 
Gandolf said:
Also the only one ever on a Sunday. Hollow bragging by NBC. 10 million flipped the channel from Cowboys-Pack to something other than Steelers-Chiefs.
Click to expand...

But the fact that it was the only one ever on a Sunday is the point. It got higher ratings than any other prime time playoff game in league history...all of those occurring on Saturday nights. So yeah, it's likely they change the format moving forward to the way it was set up this year.
 
twinkie13 said:
They should anyway, true
Click to expand...

yup

JohnnyGambler said:
Ben has looked off because he doesn't have good weapons this year. Wheaton and Bryant are really good WR and made that offense hum last year. Beyond Brown this year he's throwing to Eli Rogers, Cobi Hamilton, and undrafted rook Ayers. That's not a good enough skill set to win in NE.

Belichick will take Brown or Bell out of the game. He's not letting both guys beat him.

Pats have a little more "seasoning" as well. Lot of youth on that PIT defense. PIT is going to be awesome next year with young guys growing on D and weapons back behind that OL, but right now in this matchup they are outgunned on both sides.
Click to expand...

how exactly do you take Bell out of the game?
 
Belichick loves to take out the WR2 with his best corner and then give safety help over the WR1, but i'm not sure he will send Butler after Hamilton and not Rogers cuz he plays in the slot. So does he go WR1 vs CB1 and give safety help also to keep Brown quiet?

Football X's and O's are so hard compared to basketball, but I don't really know how you can stop Bell without committing extra defenders into the box and thus putting yourself in danger of Brown over the top. Roethlisberger is clearly down to take shots downfield and i think their offense is good enough to put up a lot of points against an overrated NE defense. Brady probably scores at will on the other side and there's no way NE plays like they did last weekend (yet still covered lol)
 
Bell rushing yards under prop the move here imo. Bellichick gonna follow his typical "take out the other team's best player" strategy, combine that with the likelihood Pitt will be playing from behind makes me lean under on the rushing yards, let it rise first on gameday which it inevitably will.

Btw, Pats with 15% more rest, at home, off a very sloppy game by their standards is a logical spot for them to handle their business imo.
 
Stopping running backs is about getting penetration and controlling gaps. Steelers have been getting a lot of push with interior double teams that also keep guys out of Bell's way until he's ready to commit to a hole. Run stunts and slants that get your DL out of double teams, allow some penetration, and force Bell to make his decision sooner than he wants. LBs and DBs need to recognize plays early, attack the holes while maintaining gap discipline, and tackle tackle tackle.

Ravens do it well. Whether Pats can do it at times but whether they can maintain it all game is the question. They did OK in the first meeting but that was with Jones at QB.
 
My friend was playing blackjack with Jim Caldwell this past weekend and Caldwell said he thinks pitt wins it all this season.... interesting
 
line slants won't be enough to stop Bell. If they're gonna do that they're gonna have to put extra guys in the box and that's scary for both running plays when Bell changes direction and for go routes to Brown
 
pats tackle well (since the buffalo debacle) so i think they will leave the normal amount in the box and put a spy on bell from further back thus allowing their zone to be more effective, bell has had a ton of carries in his last 3 games so they may try to wear him down by hitting him every time they get the chance (he absorbs a hit very well so it may be futile) .....total speculation on my part
 
In games like this with similar talent you have to factor in coaching.

Belichick -home field- big ben poor road stats....

Pats 30
Steelers 22
 
Heard an amazing stat today from Greg Cossell....in the last 5 games Bell has carried the ball 74 times on first down and averaged 6.5 YPC.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Heard an amazing stat today from Greg Cossell....in the last 5 games Bell has carried the ball 74 times on first down and averaged 6.5 YPC.
Click to expand...
Really like Greg Cossell's insight
He has a segment here on Nashville Radio... good stuff every week.
 
big news about steez having the flu

something like 15 people in the building they are saying

could be a big story if they dont get lucky by sunday and keep the spread minimized
 
I think Steelers get spanked

Pitts didnt even get in the end zone last game. That most likely wont happen again, but that's not a good sign. Against a offensively challenged Chiefs team too. I think their defense is getting way too much credit here, like 10 fold!

Pats have been consistent all year. They got blanked by the bills, a rare thing to happen to B&B. Brady lost 1 game this year, to Seahawks, Pats lost 2 all year. They are good! Their defense is very underrated! You dont think defense when you think Pats. You think Brady, Billecheat and how much ppl hate them cause they WIN! Brady threw 2 ints, and they had a special teams turnover which led to Houston's TD last week. They still won by 18!!! Run those numbers through your head and say, how the fuk is that possible! How do you win by 18 points with 3 turnovers!

Give me B&B&Co all day

31-20 Patriots!
 
wizardofodd said:
I think Steelers get spanked

Pitts didnt even get in the end zone last game. That most likely wont happen again, but that's not a good sign. Against a offensively challenged Chiefs team too. I think their defense is getting way too much credit here, like 10 fold!

Pats have been consistent all year. They got blanked by the bills, a rare thing to happen to B&B. Brady lost 1 game this year, to Seahawks, Pats lost 2 all year. They are good! Their defense is very underrated! You dont think defense when you think Pats. You think Brady, Billecheat and how much ppl hate them cause they WIN! Brady threw 2 ints, and they had a special teams turnover which led to Houston's TD last week. They still won by 18!!! Run those numbers through your head and say, how the fuk is that possible! How do you win by 18 points with 3 turnovers!

Give me B&B&Co all day

31-20 Patriots!
Click to expand...

you win by 18 because of a special teams touchdown and the other qb turning it over 3 times.
 
wizardofodd said:
I think Steelers get spanked

Pitts didnt even get in the end zone last game. That most likely wont happen again, but that's not a good sign. Against a offensively challenged Chiefs team too. I think their defense is getting way too much credit here, like 10 fold!

Pats have been consistent all year. They got blanked by the bills, a rare thing to happen to B&B. Brady lost 1 game this year, to Seahawks, Pats lost 2 all year. They are good! Their defense is very underrated! You dont think defense when you think Pats. You think Brady, Billecheat and how much ppl hate them cause they WIN! Brady threw 2 ints, and they had a special teams turnover which led to Houston's TD last week. They still won by 18!!! Run those numbers through your head and say, how the fuk is that possible! How do you win by 18 points with 3 turnovers!

Give me B&B&Co all day

31-20 Patriots!
Click to expand...

When the Bills blanked them, Brisset was the QB. Agree with your sentiment, the point about Brisset makes the case stronger.
 
deuce's wild said:
you win by 18 because of a special teams touchdown and the other qb turning it over 3 times.
Click to expand...

They also turned the ball over 3 times themselves. Houston was obviously overmatched though, so beating them by 18 isn't much to write home about. Tough to do in this league with 3 turnovers, even if you had 3 takeaways yourself.
 
wizardofodd said:
I think Steelers get spanked

Pitts didnt even get in the end zone last game. That most likely wont happen again, but that's not a good sign. Against a offensively challenged Chiefs team too. I think their defense is getting way too much credit here, like 10 fold!

Pats have been consistent all year. They got blanked by the bills, a rare thing to happen to B&B. Brady lost 1 game this year, to Seahawks, Pats lost 2 all year. They are good! Their defense is very underrated! You dont think defense when you think Pats. You think Brady, Billecheat and how much ppl hate them cause they WIN! Brady threw 2 ints, and they had a special teams turnover which led to Houston's TD last week. They still won by 18!!! Run those numbers through your head and say, how the fuk is that possible! How do you win by 18 points with 3 turnovers!

Give me B&B&Co all day

31-20 Patriots!
Click to expand...

what a ridiculous post
 
not sure it's ridiculous, just wizard's opinion and he has a point, but the hou game was close until the 4th when brock imploded and houston rattled brady which may have had something to do with the two tipped balls....not sure if pitt will get to brady like hou did but if they do the pats will be in for a brawl as ben> than brock by a lot and antonio and bell will give the pats d all they can handle....i think pats d is a little better than pitts d and the pats o is a little better than pitts and the pats coaching staff is a little better than pitts and the pats are at home....but the great equalizer is the chip pitt will have coming in, tomlin has never won in gillette and bens record vs pats less than stellar so they will play their asses off and if the pats don't come with the same killer instinct then i can see an upset, i'm feeling a defensive struggle,low scoring and a probable pats win
 
Great post BJ. Pretty much my thoughts exactly, although I think Pit's O overall is even or possibly slightly better than NE. Trust NE O more in the red zone though.
 
ArizonaKid said:
I took AFC -3 even in the Super Bowl, like either team to win it all.

Refuse to believe that Atlanta with that defense can win it all and if Green Bay beats the Falcons think Brady will pick apart that Packer secondary.

Of the 50 Super Bowl Champions, 42 finished the regular season in the top 10 in scoring defense, and 31 of them were top 5. New England finished first this season, Pitt 10th, Green Bay 20th and Atlanta 28th.
Click to expand...



So would this make sense....on 5dimes you can take the Pack to lose the SB at +388 and the Falcons to lose the SB at +141. If you like the Afc that much against the crappy Nfc defenses, then this way you are sitting on a Afc ML ticket either way.
Tell me if this is stupid...
 
How is the total in this game 50.5? Feels like a dead under to me. Both teams are going to want to play keep away, especially Pitt.
 
aplous said:
How is the total in this game 50.5? Feels like a dead under to me. Both teams are going to want to play keep away, especially Pitt.
Click to expand...


It does feel like an under. I feel first half under 25.5 can hit.

PITTS and their Qb BEN BURGER rely on a lot of running with Lebron Bell. They are capable of draining clock quicker than a trust fund baby draining his stash.

However the Pats use the hurry up offense and at home score touchdowns more than often.

It's difficult to hold Pats under 30 in a critical game at home. Seattle held them to 24 earlier but had to rely on a goal line stand and z couple of turnovers also.

If pats get their usual 31-34 the game will go over.
 
It's difficult to see how good this pats team is.

I note 2 games to figure out how good they are.

The game vs Seattle and at Denver.

Patriots schedule was very weak. JETS twice. Browns. Rams bills Dolphins steelers without Big Ben-

Pats didn't play any of the elite teams.

Seattle hung 31 on them and then Denver limited them to 16.

With no Gronk if a team can limit Edelmen I dint see pats winning that game.

The offense is mostly Edelmen sprinkled in with dion Lewis and Bennett tight end

I feel steelers have a shot to upset them because pats are overrated.


Pittsburgh is just as good if not a better team. Vegas knows this otherwise pats would be favoured a td at least

The entire game will rest on Big Ben. If he can avoid turnovers and also convert in the red zone Pittsburgh will win.
 
Interesting to see how this plays out on Sunday:


Steelers are 9-0 this season when Bell rushes for over 90 yards
and
Patriots have not allowed a rusher over 90 yards in 24 straight games

(Includes postseason)
 
My sources on the ground tell me 15 Steelers have the stomach bug
 
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