49ers vs. Packers Discussion Thread

Knamelis said:
Hey Bank, do you have any opinion on D. Adams over Rec and Yards? Saw some numbers where in last 5 games vs SF he’s seen double digit targets and has gone over 130 yards 4/5 games. Thanks
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I’m spending today really trying to figure out all this stuff, I know I been playing a lot of #1 wr’s yardage overs against niners, even played cooper last week despite playing Dak under. They really don’t do a very good job taking a teams #1 away! Even gage went for close to 100 if I recall! I usually shy away from the very top guys just cause their numbers so high (I think books prob go out their way to get these numbers right) and in theory I would think teams would be trying to take them away (see Kupp on Monday night), but in this case I think there is prob a good argument to be made for adams overs. I’ll start posting more stuff as I start figuring out my bets, I plan on making most of them later today cause feel like if I wait till game day I often lose some numbers.
 
skanless13 said:
I am someone who has said that in relation to penalties in key situations. Don’t get me wrong, SF bullied them around the field, but if Dallas doesn’t commit some of those ridiculous penalties that either extended SF drives or negated big gains, it might be a different game. Might.
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Agree with the 14 penalties not helping at all.
 
wiseplayer said:
Agree with the 14 penalties not helping at all.
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Penalties kept the 9ers from officially choking that game away. But it was still a game they absolutely dominated - but too many times this team comes away with 3. You could have told me that game was 37-0 instead of 13-0. They play with fire.
 
This game is going to be well under 0 with the wind chill. If you're talking 15-25 mph winds it could be 10 or more below. I've never seen anyone stiffer than Rodgers in freezing conditions. I remember Joe Webb years back kept it competitive vs. the Packers in milder conditions.

I have no idea how Jimmy will fare in this, though, either with that broken thumb. Sound painful when combined with this cold.

Both teams really good against the run - but I think the 9ers are better than their 6th ranked position form wise.
 
Inspekdah said:
This game is going to be well under 0 with the wind chill. If you're talking 15-25 mph winds it could be 10 or more below. I've never seen anyone stiffer than Rodgers in freezing conditions. I remember Joe Webb years back kept it competitive vs. the Packers in milder conditions.

I have no idea how Jimmy will fare in this, though, either with that broken thumb. Sound painful when combined with this cold.

Both teams really good against the run - but I think the 9ers are better than their 6th ranked position form wise.
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man i like your niners but i think you crazy with this stuff bout cold being bad for rodgers/pack. i dont see any numbers that bare that out, im i missing something? far as run games and run game defense i have no doubt niners run game will win that battle. im not very confident they can stop adams tho, #1 wrs been roasting them all year and i dont expect the cold to bother packers passing game like you do. pretty sure they have a heated field in gb so it never as bad as in buffalo with no heated field!!

i would think cold be better for jimmy g thumb, he shouldnt feel a thing cause it all be numb!! i didnt know it was his thumb, i thought for some reason it was a finger. seems like thumb make it way tougher to grip.
 
2daBank said:
man i like your niners but i think you crazy with this stuff bout cold being bad for rodgers/pack. i dont see any numbers that bare that out, im i missing something? far as run games and run game defense i have no doubt niners run game will win that battle. im not very confident they can stop adams tho, #1 wrs been roasting them all year and i dont expect the cold to bother packers passing game like you do. pretty sure they have a heated field in gb so it never as bad as in buffalo with no heated field!!

i would think cold be better for jimmy g thumb, he shouldnt feel a thing cause it all be numb!! i didnt know it was his thumb, i thought for some reason it was a finger. seems like thumb make it way tougher to grip.
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I don't think either team can throw it 30 times with 25 mph winds.
 
Last ice bowl was actually against the 49ers and there was no wind and he had prime Jordy, Cobb, and James Jones.

i
Green Bay Passing
C/ATTYDSAVGTDINTSACKSQBRRTG
Aaron Rodgers17/261776.8104-2066.997.8
TEAM17/261576.8104-20--97.8
 
And fwiw I'm not confident in the 9ers at all tomorrow to do much on offense, either. I would hand the ball to Debo 50 times.
 
Inspekdah said:
This game is going to be well under 0 with the wind chill. If you're talking 15-25 mph winds it could be 10 or more below. I've never seen anyone stiffer than Rodgers in freezing conditions.
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Packers have probably played 2/3 (or more) of their home games in below-freezing temperatures since Rodgers has been QB. Someone else can dig up the stats for those games but I'm guessing the vast majority of time he's had good / great performances. I'm not sure not sure how that syncs up with him being "stiff". If so, probably need more stiff QBs in the league.

Wind forecast is 15 to 20 MPH during the day on Saturday. 8-10 MPH at kick so not forecasted to be an issue.

weather green bay - Google Search

www.google.com
 
Inspekdah said:
And fwiw I'm not confident in the 9ers at all tomorrow to do much on offense, either. I would hand the ball to Debo 50 times.
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im incredibly confident that him and mitchell will go for at least 150 combined. i dunno if that will be enough but it certainly a start.. they just need jimmy to be able to pick up some 3rd downs to keep the run game on time, maybe hit some early down easy throws with play action then let the run game go back to bludgeoning them!! IF they can get a lead in this game i think rodgers butt might just tighten up as been known to happen being the front runner he is!! i know one thing, if niners win the toss i would take the ball and i rarely do that, i think dallas did them a huge favor differing and letting niners offense set the tone, of course they prob force dak into a 3 and out anyways but still thought it was a mistake giving them the ball 1st.. ive always thought Lafluer was one the best in the league when it came to the early scripted plays, i dunno how well that has held up cause their scoring avg in 1st qrtr has fallen off, they still the highest scoring team in 2nd qrtr but they dont have the gap between them and everyone else they did last year.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Packers have probably played 2/3 (or more) of their home games in below-freezing temperatures since Rodgers has been QB. Someone else can dig up the stats for those games but I'm guessing the vast majority of time he's had good / great performances. I'm not sure not sure how that syncs up with him being "stiff". If so, probably need more stiff QBs in the league.

Wind forecast is 15 to 20 MPH during the day on Saturday. 8-10 MPH at kick so not forecasted to be an issue.

weather green bay - Google Search

www.google.com
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they been posted for him and pack under freezing. they very good. lol.. i would like to see just playoffs cause i do agree with @Inspekdah about not caring much what those numbers are when playing those nfc north bums, although it still proves cold doesnt bother him, i really cant believe this a talking point, lol..
 
2daBank said:
they been \posted for him and pack under freezing. they very good. lol..
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I would think so. Hell, those players live in that stuff and should be acclimated more than any other team (along with Buffalo) when it comes to playing in it.

San Fran may win tomorrow. But I doubt it will be because GB plays poorly, especially Rodgers.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I would think so. Hell, those players live in that stuff and should be acclimated more than any other team (along with Buffalo) when it comes to playing in it.

San Fran may win tomorrow. But I doubt it will be because GB plays poorly, especially Rodgers.
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agreed, i mean if the point he making is rodgers prob isnt gonna go crazy and throw for 300+ i agree with that, that not even the game plan im sure. his passing total is only 260.5, packers path to victory is him being incredibly efficient (as he usually is) and scoring on a high percentage of their drives..as much i love the niners run game packers have a couple bad asses in their backfield as well!
 
rodgers threw for 261 on niners the 1st meeting and that lead to 30 points!! that is pretty darn efficient. 12 of his 23 completions went to Adams and i really dont think niners can stop him as they really havnt shown the ability to take teams 1st option away.. i think missing MVS hurts them and dont think the addition of cobb makes up for what he brings, lazard has came on of late tho..
 
2daBank said:
rodgers threw for 261 on niners the 1st meeting and that lead to 30 points!! that is pretty darn efficient. 12 of his 23 completions went to Adams and i really dont think niners can stop him as they really havnt shown the ability to take teams 1st option away.. i think missing MVS hurts them and dont think the addition of cobb makes up for what he brings, lazard has came on of late tho..
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The 9ers were lost in that game and pretty awful. Debo wasn't a RB yet and they had no Mitchell and they should have won!

But I do not disagree that Adams probably goes off. WR1s have torn up the 9ers all season long.
 
Inspekdah said:
The 9ers were lost in that game and pretty awful. Debo wasn't a RB yet and they had no Mitchell and they should have won!

But I do not disagree that Adams probably goes off. WR1s have torn up the 9ers all season long.
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yea im not using any the niners offensive stats for that game.. it was another instance of jimmy g being great when they were down late and had to have it!! they just left a little too much time on the clock for double bitch..obviously the ability to run the ball should help limit rodgers chances but the question is does he need a lot of them to hang a tough number?
 






Akash Anavarathan

@akashanav
Aaron Rodgers Kept Clean: * 77.1 Completion Rate * 8.5 yards per attempt * 29 TDs, 0 INTs * 123.7 Rtg Aaron Rodgers Under Pressure: * 38.4 Completion Rate * 5.1 yards per attempt * 8 TDs, 3 INTs * 67.9 Rtg Rodgers has crumbled under pressure this season, 19th-best passer.
 
Inspekdah said:

Akash Anavarathan
@akashanav
Aaron Rodgers Kept Clean: * 77.1 Completion Rate * 8.5 yards per attempt * 29 TDs, 0 INTs * 123.7 Rtg Aaron Rodgers Under Pressure: * 38.4 Completion Rate * 5.1 yards per attempt * 8 TDs, 3 INTs * 67.9 Rtg Rodgers has crumbled under pressure this season, 19th-best passer.
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its a real shame he getting his left tackle back! i do wonder how healthy and effective he will be tho?
 
Knamelis said:
Hey Bank, do you have any opinion on D. Adams over Rec and Yards? Saw some numbers where in last 5 games vs SF he’s seen double digit targets and has gone over 130 yards 4/5 games. Thanks
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i def think adams worth a play in some fashion or another. i think over 7.5 rec or 94.5 yards are 6 to 1 half dozen to the other really, adams averages 12 something a catch, niners are pretty good about yards per reception at 9.4 but wrs are right around the same 12.5 as adams averages, in freezing ass cold i wouldnt figure for him to go for a lot of long down the field gains. the over reception price is carrying -145 juice at DK while 94.5 yards is -120 and id say if he gets 8 catches you can be pretty confident he goes over the yardage, if he doesnt get over catches the yardage may be tough, like i was saying when they line the biggest names they tend to be a lot closer than i would like! if you have different options and can get a better price on receptions or lower on yardage that might change things but for my money and price at DK i would play the over yards..
 
KJ said:
"Warming" up to AJ Dillon props
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im super torn on him or jones, i wish there was some snow cause i think dillon style really plays well when the footing a question.. i watched jones get hit up about 5 yards today and dillon went down a few but now he back to 40.5 rush., i think i like him over that.
 
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2daBank said:
i def think adams worth a play in some fashion or another. i think over 7.5 rec or 94.5 yards are 6 to 1 half dozen to the other really, adams averages 12 something a catch, niners are pretty good about yards per reception at 9.4 but wrs are right around the same 12.5 as adams averages, in freezing ass cold i wouldnt figure for him to go for a lot of long down the field gains. the over reception price is carrying -145 juice at DK while 94.5 yards is -120 and id say if he gets 8 catches you can be pretty confident he goes over the yardage, if he doesnt get over catches the yardage may be tough, like i was saying when they line the biggest names they tend to be a lot closer than i would like! if you have different options and can get a better price on receptions or lower on yardage that might change things but for my money and price at DK i would play the over yards..
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i think lazard ov 39.5 is interesting as well, he been a lot more involved of late, no MVS and i just dont buy cobb as a guiy taking stuff away from him.
 
of course cant forget niners secret weapon, the guys name i cant say or spell, juszcyck or whatever the hell it is,, i felt like ov 7.5 was a steal last week, he got that super early, they moved him up to 9.5 but hell, i think he get 2 thrown his way, every game he has caught 2 he went over this number i believe.
 
2daBank said:
im super torn on him or jones, i wish there was some snow cause i think dillon style really plays well when the footing a question.. i watched jones get hit up about 5 yards today and dillon went down a few but now he back to 40.5 rush., i think i like him over that.
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9.5 attempts is juiced but I bet it's closer to 15 than 10 unless they fall way behind early which is not what my tarot cards are saying
 
KJ said:
9.5 attempts is juiced but I bet it's closer to 15 than 10 unless they fall way behind early which is not what my tarot cards are saying
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yea it dropped from 10.5 earlier, i was little concerned someone who was privy to something hit it along with jones overs but who knows? i still prefer yards i think, if he gets 10+ carries im pretty confident he hits 41 yards and could def do so on 8 or 9..
 
i do think some good points been made in scopey prop/dfs thread,, with both these 2 running very deliberate offenses that like to control the game it a good possibility we only see 60 plays each, or maybe even a few less..
 
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im a little surprised rodgers completions and attempts numbers are a few higher than his season avg here,, i eliminated the week 17 game to get them as he didnt play the full game. considering how much time both teams chew up on offense, the cold, and fact im sure both want to establish a run game im not sure it makes sense for his numbers to be higher?
 
2daBank said:
i do think some good points been made in scopey prop/dfs thread,, with both these 2 running very deliberate offenses that like to control the game it a good possibility we only see 60 plays each, or maybe even a few less..
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Massive under lean more than a side here for sure, got Pack tag teamed w/Tits ML parlay but not sure either team hits 24
 
KJ said:
Massive under lean more than a side here for sure, got Pack tag teamed w/Tits ML parlay but not sure either team hits 24
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i lean under both nfc games and over both afc but havnt decided on what im playing other than pretty sure ill be playing the bills/kc over..
 
2daBank said:
im a little surprised rodgers completions and attempts numbers are a few higher than his season avg here,, i eliminated the week 17 game to get them as he didnt play the full game. considering how much time both teams chew up on offense, the cold, and fact im sure both want to establish a run game im not sure it makes sense for his numbers to be higher?
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i lied, i freaking forgot he didnt play that one week against kc, so they basically right on target with his season numbers, that still makes me lean under as i dont think there will be as many plays in this game.
 
2daBank said:
im super torn on him or jones, i wish there was some snow cause i think dillon style really plays well when the footing a question.. i watched jones get hit up about 5 yards today and dillon went down a few but now he back to 40.5 rush., i think i like him over that.
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For me anyway, I want Dillon much more than Jones in what figures to be hard hitting at 0 degrees
 
Don’t see a big back like Dillon having much success here vs the 9ers front. Smaller speedy guys give them much more problems.
 
Inspekdah said:
Cowboys blogger saying the game didn’t feel like a home game. “Never seen an opponents fan base like that before”.

https://www.reddit.com/r/49ers/comments/s9ou3z


Won’t be an issue though in GB
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it sounded like a home game for dallas and certainly saw way more cowboys fans when tv panned the crowd (suppose that coulda been intentional, id guess jerry could let it be known not to show a ton of niners fans on tv! lol).. . as you said wont matter this week, no packers fans selling tickets and i cant imagine no matter how loyal niners fans are they want travel to green bay to sit out in that shit!!! Have to be out your rabbit (or is it rabid? lol) ass mind to leave cali and go to green bay this time of year!!!
 
2daBank said:
it sounded like a home game for dallas and certainly saw way more cowboys fans when tv panned the crowd (suppose that coulda been intentional, id guess jerry could let it be known not to show a ton of niners fans on tv! lol).. . as you said wont matter this week, no packers fans selling tickets and i cant imagine no matter how loyal niners fans are they want travel to green bay to sit out in that shit!!! Have to be out your rabbit (or is it rabid? lol) ass mind to leave cali and go to green bay this time of year!!!
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There are more Packers fans in San Francisco than Niners fans

This is a fan being a fan
 
Big daddy naught said:
He did it in the rams game to get to OT marched right down the field but the “injuries” do scare me but I think gb d can be had
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I think they can as well, but I just don't trust JG to get it done. I think Rams offense would be a better matchup but we'll see.


I really don't trust the SF secondary AT ALL. I have visions of Rodgers picking them apart.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I think they can as well, but I just don't trust JG to get it done. I think Rams offense would be a better matchup but we'll see.


I really don't trust the SF secondary AT ALL. I have visions of Rodgers picking them apart.
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This ^^ that secondary worries the shit out of me if im backing sf. I watched them get torched by AJ Brown when he was the only one Tannehill had healthy have a hard time seeing them slow Rogers and adams
 
I don't like playing dogs that I don't think win su from the jump. Throw in the fact that it's under a td vs Arod @ home? 4ints on the season he rarely misses.

I'll tip my cap to SF and the backers if the get it done though!
 
Big daddy naught said:
This ^^ that secondary worries the shit out of me if im backing sf. I watched them get torched by AJ Brown when he was the only one Tannehill had healthy have a hard time seeing them slow Rogers and adams
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Secondary has never been healthier. First game Mosely was hurt, no slot CB, and Norman who doesn’t even play anymore was CB1. Safeties are a top 10 unit and I think Thomas from UM is coming along at the right time. CB still a weakness but I was surprised to not see Stafford 2h or Dak all game have anything wide open to throw to.
 
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