4.8

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
What a Yankee game !! Clearly the fact it saved my day hitting my 6 unit play @ 2 to 1 .....that momentum spilled over to a 5-0 day...Though I could have done much better then that...

Yankees SP has been brutal but it will improve. None of the SP have been in good positions so far..cold weather , injuries , days rest..blah , blah , blah all messed up...the pen has been excellent though... We all know Mussina is a sort of a bitch in that he hates having his routine messed with...I dont blame him persay just which he would overcome it every once in awhile , Pettitte dealt with the back issue and is still in ST mode he needs innings , Pavano is basically in the same boat as Pettitte except that he threw more in the ST but hadnt started in 18 months , Igawa I didnt see today 1st hand but again command...and getting ahead...I dont think outside of teh 2run HR he was hit hard....

+8.33units
-0.57units
-24.80units
+17.00units
+15.90units(-0.75u)
-6.63units
+16.35units (-1.50u)

Some thoughts:

Balt @ NYY: You have to wonder about the BALT mindset coming into this game. Its early but that was a crushing loss and they have the home opener on Monday. So mentally where are they?? On the plane home?? They are throwing Bedard there ace. Now some scoffed at my remarks that right now he is better then Johan Santana( I mean early in the season BTW). Well if you watched him duel Johan you at least know he is one of the hardest throwing LHP in the game as regulary topped out at 96MPH. Problem was Joe West was squeezing him and his frustration appeared to come to fruitation in him scrapping his other pitches and just wanting to throw the GAS..we all know thats a recipe for disaster at this level. So lets hope he gets back to pitching. Posada will rest and it looks like Nieves like all great Yankee backups is an extreme dropoff in talent . Matsui is OUT and Melky in LF and Damon will start in CF( Cairo would play LF and Melky CF if somethin happened) .

AROD finally did it!! Well he hits Bedard well in his career so search out AROD props they are probably a good buy as power hitters are streaky! (7/16 1HR off Bedard career) . Now Rasner is capable but you just dont knwo what to expect. Solid in the Spring till his last start and really same last season...solid in his few appearances till his last one...did pitch real well in the Arizona Fall League. So I think he is either good or bad only extremes and no inbewteens. Bedard still hasnt mastered pitching on the road with about a 1.6 difference in ERA last season H & A...he does do his best work in day games but O's have struggled on Sundays..

Something key is Jerry Layne here the HP UMP. The last 10 NYY games he worked NYY is 8-2 and the losses were Johan and ROY . Also his last 4+ years with totals 10.5 and higher he is 10-2 UNDER...which is comforting knowing that NY's lineup can struggle vs LH and is watered down some. As well as having a SP who could use a bigger strike zone after his last start. Nieves is catching Rasner cause they worked together @ AAA last year...wise move Torre! So knowing that Bedard's O's lost all 5 starts last year vs divisional teams Tor, Bos and NY and ha slost 8 of 10 past 3 years factored with basically getting NY to win the series @ -150....STRONG LEAN on NYY and STRONG LEAN on UNDER..

Tor @ TB:With Doc Halladay on the hill the past 2 years @ TB the Jays are 5-0 while he has pitched 40 innings and allowed 8 runs . While Kazmir is 0-4 in his career at home vs Tor. However itsbeen due to lack of support. In 23.2 innings he has allowed 3 runs only 2 earned!! His last 5 starts he has gone 34 innings allowing 4 runs and 3 earned....the vet Cousins hasnt realy worked either of these SP so no familiarity. Glaus is questionable ...waiting but thinking UNDER 8 here...wish we had 8.5 ...

Minny @ Chi : Road chalk....

Johan Santana (L) Previous Starts vs. Chi. White Sox

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>8/26/06</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>8-7</TD><TD class=datacell>-136/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>95 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.89</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>8/20/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>7-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-163/8</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>99 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.60</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>7/25/06</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>4-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-109/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>106 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>5/12/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>10-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-150/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>106 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.43</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>4/21/06</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>1-7</TD><TD class=datacell>104/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>120 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.36</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>9/22/05</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>4-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-170/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>101 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.91</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>9/17/05</TD><TD class=datacell>CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>-210/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>13</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>113 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.38</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>8/23/05</TD><TD class=datacell>CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>1-0</TD><TD class=datacell>-180/7</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>95 </TD><TD class=datacell>11.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.42</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>8/17/05</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>5-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-110/7</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>8.1</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>119 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.3 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>4/10/05</TD><TD class=datacell>CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>5-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-163/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>108 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.50</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As you can see Johan has done well vs Minny winning 9 of 10 starts and allowing 3rusn or less in 7 + innings for starts over 2 seasons(13-4 lifetime starting against WSox). John Danks was hithard in the Spring and Ithink it was a win by defualt of the #5 spot. Twins hit LHP hard but White is questionable and Sox are strong in day games. After a slow start vs LHP the Twins won 10 of 13 away against them...

Absurd as it may be looking to lay it with Johan....

DET @ KC: Hold onto your seat..Duckworth was throwing 96 this Spring after years of elbow problems....he finished up pretty strong vs Houston a RH dominanted lineup sort of like DET's...The Tigers are 2-2 with both being by 1 run so this +1.5 RL for KC looks interesting...Bonderman has been real good or real bad vs KC so its a mixed bag....might be interested in an over at 9 runs...shaky pens to boot....Rapuano is pretty much an UNDER ump but KC is an OVER team in day games...

OAK @ LAA: Not much interest here for me...Blanton struggles to win vs LAA but all these games see to be low scoring 1 run types...Escobar last 4 vs OAK he has an excellent ERA....

Will look at SEA@ CLE some time when I know what the deal is for sure ...

Thats what I see on the AL for now....working on the NL comments still....GL:cheers:






 
Thanks Sparky...posted in ur thread....GL with that Met play!!! I need to sleep on my plays I think especially totals......

Thanks BetCrimes!! Good Luck:cheers:
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" width="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Sports- I had the Yanks as well yesterday, what a game! I live for those types, as long as your side saves the day of course. I was leaning to Baltimore today, not so sure now after reading your post. I love the Under in the Rays/Jays game, I am 90% sure I'll be locking that in. Good luck with your picks.
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I knew you would like the twins..but no way in hell do I lay that price...gl bro.
 
Liking the under even in a Yankee day game as its Sunday where they seem to go under. Just not on track with Santana here. Last 10 on the road in April 4-6 just is an end of the play for me. Another angle I remember from last year is Minn is pretty bad after a 1 or 0 scoring day. GL
 
NL Thoughts

National League:

NYM @ ATL : At that price no interest. I really dont want to get involved in the fade NYM train just yet but will if I get the price. El Duque is solid buth this aint the Cardinals. You can look at raw stats but right now the truth is STL cant hit and / or score....the Braves can swing it so despite last season success vs TAL I am not ready to back my boy El Duque..I think Davies has potential...but thats all he is so far.....

Philly @ Fla : I thought todays game was fishy cause why would you back Myers? Phills dont matchup well vs LHP , Willis is the man in April best career w/L % I believe at 10-1 before tonite and Myers had dropped 7 of 8 in Fla.. Take note Philly solid in day games but impressive and I know bogus stat on Sundays...

Watched the Segovia kid vs the Yanks twice and I walked away impressed with his mound presence but not his stuff. With Olsen struggling vs Philly in his career and Howard owning him I like the dog to suprise....not sold on these pens so like the Over 9.5.....Strong leans to Philly & Over 9.5 ...

Pitt @ Cincy : Strange thing is Pitt is the NL's Orioles going 5-20 away vs LHP..the trade of nady there was a plus though... Duke also struggles on the road in his young career.. its so hard to not like OVER 9....Duke was solid in the opener but had a cracked fingernail push back his 2nd start...Duke went 1-11 with a 4.77 ERA in 17 road starts last season, with Pittsburgh losing 16 of those contests. I think it was just one of those freak things last season though

Silly stats but Pitt struggles vs LHP on the road, Duke has strugggled on the road in his short career , 16-36 L2 yrs on Sunday and 38-72 in day starts...., home owned series recently....Duke allows batters to hit 300 in day starts..

If Milton becomes a home dog you have to ride him especially with something to prove in a contract year or walk year....STRONG LEAN OVER 9 with wetaher supposed to be at 40...

Zona @ Wash : Wash is proving what I said in the Futures thread they will LOSE alot.....UNDER 67.or whatever it was...Anyway bottomline is Livan is coming home but I have no interest in fading a team trying to avoid a 4 game sweep...they have 1 win and it was GIFT...however road sweeps are tough so no interest...I do like Shawn Hill he struggled in the 1st inning before settling down....looking at the UNDER 8.5 though....

StL @ Houston : Impressed with Wells vs the Mets. neither team hiiting much and Jennings ( good vs STL last 2 years) was solid vs Pitt....nothing yet except an UNDER lean...Cards just 7 runs to date & Houston not much better..

Chi @ Milw : Who better to avoid the sweep then Cappy? I say that cause 3 starts last year vs CHI ZERO RUNS allowed!! That includes 2 CG shutouts with less then 100 pitches and 26 innings with 18 hits (NO RUNS)and 2 BB's!!!!!! SICK! Cappy has led his Brewers to wins in his last 6 starts vs CHI....

Really at this point I am not sure who Wade Miller is anymore. Injuries have robbed him of his velocity and I dont know what to label him. He is 11-1 career vs MILW but the Brewers stunk back then and his Stros were solid...Cubbies tend to play over on the road with 8 or 8.5 totals....with Ramoirez and Lee swing well and vs Cappy in theer careers have to lean OVER.....& MILW naturally

LAD @ SFG : The Dodgers have ownded SF lately but I think it stops here. SF has a solid lineup vs LHP and Wolf has lost his 4 career starts @ SF. Zito was okay on Opening day but he should be better here. He pitched real well vs LAD last season..really just looking for SF to avoid the sweep...

No real opinion yet on COL @ SD.....BOL:cheers:


 
Thanks guys....Not sure I touch the Twins here I want to see the line. I like them but still a dome team in these conditions....was more of a Danks being LH fade.....curious as to why you thought I would like Johan Hunt...thats not a play I would make often especially since I faded him 1st start..??

If Santana wasnt pitching against John Danks I wouldnt even be looking fellas, trust me on that...dont think he is ML ready....so maybe an over...??

The Nats are tough to play right now. At small sized dogs they jsut dont have value persay.....I owuld say fade or pass even here in a 4 gm sweep spot but that could chanmge tmrw cause I do like Shawn Hill and the U8.5

Thanks again guys and BOL:cheers:

 
SN,

because I know how you look at lines sometimes and you would say that that is not "value" for a rookie pitcher at home. I understand the starting pitching angle but I think anytime the sox are over 150+ at home you just have to take them based on their lineup. Is this a "square" way of thinking? IMO no, but others may think otherwise.
 
A-Rod will strike out with the bases loaded tomorrow in the 1st inning and outs the crowd will boo him again
 
Re Segovia last 6 starts he gave up 1 run in 9.2 innings. Correct, no start longer then 2 innings so not sure how long he will be pitching tomorrow. GL
 
Tuck, not sure what your looking at but I know he went 5 inninsg I believe twice vs NYY in Spring Training. So thats incorrect..its his ML debut here

Hunt , Doubt I take Minny but its Minny or pass . Your correct in that I dont look at is the WSox being a big home dog. I think I look at it more like of 100 times the Twins probably win it at least 95 of them...so what would happen in those 5 occassions that they dont and do they apply here to this game...Sort of like what arguement , angle am I missing..the cold is the toughest factor here..

Basically like I said if Twins scored less then 4runs I would be shocked. With such a long track of record of allowing 3 runs or less thats key to me. I watched the O's start and he was much better then I expected. For me to play this I would have to see -175 and that doesnt look likely....maybe Danks suprises but I would expect he doesnt make it past the 4th trainling 5-1 or something.....

:cheers:

HAPPY EASTER ALL & PASSOVER .....BOL
 
SN, I agree with you on the 95 out of 100 angle..if this was at minny it would be a no play or a play on Johan. I just think the wind and cold should be a big factor in this. I feel like I am getting a free 20 cents on mother nature I guess. Danka isn't that bad. THe minors are different than the majors obviously but I honestly don't fear anyone in the twins lineup outside of Morneau.

Gl bro, happy Easter
 
wait a minute ... chisox would go 5-95 SU in this matchup over 100 games to a division rival?

you cant be serious. its a dome team playing a road game in subfreezing conditions on easter. never have i been more oppo with what you have to say.
 
brewer..you wouldn't take johan 95 out of 100 times against a rookie pitcher making his first start in the big leagues against one of the most experienced and patient hitting teams in all of baseball? and this is a team that santana has dominated recently.

I mean I am on the sox, and one of the reasons is because of what you said above but if it is 80 degrees and not a cloud in the sky or in minnestoa I'm going to take Johan or a no play against a rookie pitcher everytime.
 
if it is 80 degrees and not a cloud in the sky or in minnestoa I'm going to take Johan or a no play against a rookie pitcher everytime.

i agree if that is the situation but its clearly not<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
I agree with both you guys. Like Hunt said I was making the comment as IF the elements were not part of the equation. Especially with weather and wind I wait till gameday to include that in my view of the game. These reports as we all know with the weather are more often then not inaccurate . Isnt it laughable they keep rescheduling the CLE games only to cancel hours befire they start??

The reason I made the 95% comment is a Hunt said look at Johan's track record. Twins are 9-1 last 10 starts he has allowed 3runs twice in that span and gone at least 7 innings. Which leaves Nathan for the ninth so you have the 8th inning window yo concern yorself about. Looking at Santana vs the Sox is extremely impressive and Chi itself has scored more then 3 runs just twice in that span...

My opinion of Danks is not that he is bad but at this point he is not ready to pitch in the Majors. You give Johan a 4-0 lead and it will be a long day. If you shorten Danks appearance you get into a shaky pen situation with Chi....Even in April when I dont view Johan as highly you have to ask yourself whats the chances of Chi scoring more then3 times and Minny scoring less then 4 ??

So its gonna be cold in Chi...probably about 40 degrees...Has anyone looked at Johans past April starts and see anything odd?? He pitched in some 40 degree games in April before. They werent his best outings but the weather didnt seem to hurt him any...

If this price comes down further I may play the Twins. Minny has all this pesky bats vs LHP....:cheers:
 
1PM starts

Still working on the early starts...

Phillies +110 {3units} ARL -1.5 +165 {1unit} L-4.00
Over 9 -110 Florida {4units} W +4.00
Under 10.5 -115 NYY {5units} W +5.00
NYY - 140 {3.5units} L -4.90
Nationals +120 {2.5 units} ARL -1.5 +240{1/2unit} L -3.00
Reds -105 {2.5units} ARL -1.5 +175 {1/2unit} L-3.13


Not sure about the rest yet.......Good Luck:cheers: :cheers:

HAPPY EASTER

Total Bases : ARod -135 vs Tejada {2units} +2.00

Added the dogs late and cost myself about 7 units.....
 
Last edited:
Well I am sure he has his reason ....Good Luck Cakeoff..

Just not crazy about the price for TOR. Kazmir has shut them down and while I dont think he is right still he isnt that far either. The total dropping to 7.5 would make me lean towards PASS..


Mets are just to rich IMO versus a SP who has yet to be defined. EL Duque is solid but I like the ATL lineup and dont agree with Sparky that ATL scores only 1 time today....

Weather: 39 degrees, cloudy.
Wind: 20 mph, Out to RF.

Pause for concern at the STADIUM...just hoping the LHdont get the ball in teh air that often.... Damon's OUT again and Cairo is IN

pitt and cincy is interesting but decided to pass...looking at Cincy and the over...however in days games both team struggled last season...reds 233 vs pitt 255 and worse is they really both struggle vs LHP...Milton stunk all spring but has something to prove.....
:cheers:
 
Im going to be a square and play it, not trying to overthink it. The total stuck out to me as being low.
 
I dont like low totals going lower...BOL

Squares ...sharps I see alot of bad plays from both...wins are at that matter not classifications
 
call me crazy but I think the nats can win today too. Not sure if I cant actually put money on them though
 
wow... people are way too in love with the pirates. they are FAVORITES on matchbook now. this is ridiculous.
 
renew orleans said:
wow... people are way too in love with the pirates. they are FAVORITES on matchbook now. this is ridiculous.
Click to expand...


Thats what I was waiting for...Duke WON 1 of 17 starts on the road and Pirates won 5 of 26 vs LHP on the road...and you dont get a PLUS sign for this time....they made me play Cincy on logic alone....watch Milton stun teh world with his job on the line.....BOL
 
RSMS9999 said:
call me crazy but I think the nats can win today too. Not sure if I cant actually put money on them though
Click to expand...

Always easier to make decisions when your dealing from strength as in being ahead of the game (beeb a few good days now)...
 
Mets just started with extreme negative momentum...

man on 3rd no one out and they dont score....equate that driving the length of the field in football stalling at the 19 yd line and then missing a short FG.....most teams are flat and never recover....lets see if baseball holds up the same way..
 
2 PM:

Wont be around for an hour or so.......(-4.03 units early session)

Twins -180 {2units}W +2.00
Twins -1.5 RL -120 {2units} W +2.00

KC +1.5 RL +105 {2.5units} ML +165 {1/2unit} W +2.13
ARL -1.5 +285 {.75unit} -.75
Over 9 -120 {2units} L-2.40

Brewers -110 {3units} W +3.00

maybe over 8.5 if it gets there in HOUSTON...

Good Luck:cheers:+1.95 units for the day...wow...
 
Last edited:
Thanks Farm....Couldnt be happier.....

Do I feel wise with that ARod prop now!! Tejada had 31 hits vs NY think ONLY 4 doubles and 1 Hr...

Philly gets 3 top of the 1st as well....:cheers:
 
cmon Brewers 3 more outs up 6-0 mid and still have to sweat :hairout:
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
I watched that at bat and said in the ingame-thread..Amazing at bat for Bonds.
Click to expand...

Thats why I stuck by this guy when they were trying to bring him down. Forget his personality and attitude cause alot people have flawed personalities in sports...this 43 yr old man can hit like none other juiced or clean...hopefully if he did anything it was to experiment and thats all so they can just squash that chatter...his ability to sit back on pitches and recognize them is incredible...out in front of that looping curve kept his hands back and yanked it foul out of the park then he hits a laser beam off the wall....simply amazing.....

Good PUSH on the REDS game..:cheers:
 
thecakeoff said:
cmon Brewers 3 more outs up 6-0 mid and still have to sweat :hairout:
Click to expand...
Everything outside of totals is a constant headache..you get your over and they cant take it back...I had to endure failed opp after failed opp with Philly , Wash and Cincy...now praying for KC and MILW to hold on...especially at the current scores....:cheers:
 
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