2016 Soccer
- Thread starter dylanphan
- Start date
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
72-57-28 (+15.08)
Morning fellas. Remember when the soccer forum was the place to be? Well, still fucking is. Can't wait to get ManUK and Billy out of fucking hibernation. Glorious return of DA. Jakarta Mike will make a special guest appearance. Just to name a few.
Anyway, MLS starts back up this weekend, that will surely get things cracking in here :hang:
Going to start off with these two for today:
Znojmo/Usti wtf o2.5 (-115) 1.15 to make 1.00
Kapfenberg/Liefering o3 (-133) 1.33 to make 1.00
:cheers3: :cheers3:
Morning fellas. Remember when the soccer forum was the place to be? Well, still fucking is. Can't wait to get ManUK and Billy out of fucking hibernation. Glorious return of DA. Jakarta Mike will make a special guest appearance. Just to name a few.
Anyway, MLS starts back up this weekend, that will surely get things cracking in here :hang:
Going to start off with these two for today:
Znojmo/Usti wtf o2.5 (-115) 1.15 to make 1.00
Kapfenberg/Liefering o3 (-133) 1.33 to make 1.00
:cheers3: :cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
I'm going to go ahead and write this one up tonight, as it kicks off early tomorrow.
Huge London derby game tomorrow early. Biggest in ages. And to me, this one just screams value out on one side.
In my eyes, Spurs have been in the best form in the league. And, well, the stats seems to back me up as they are 4-1 in their last 5, and 7-2-1 in their last 10.
They have been very good at home this year, the 2nd most points in the league, and second fewest goals allowed (behind only the mighty United). They have a very organized side, and Alli has been terrific. So long as Ericksen and Kane are out there, this team has a very potent attack.
Arsenal on the other hand are a team in flux here. And further, they are without their first choice gk.
Gunners have only won one of their last 5 away games (@ Bournemouth), and have allowed 3 to United, Livepool and 4 to Southampton. The team is just a mess right now.
this is a game that very well could determine the title, and its easy to understand how Spurs may have been looking ahead of the Hammers midweek, but now they have a home date in a game they must win. Honestly I'm tempted to go BIG bet on this one all the way as the price is so very nice, but decided to play it safe here simply because this is a bit of unknown waters for the Spurs and they could spit the bit here.
Either way give me Spurs -0.25 (+105) 2.10 to make 2.00. I love me some Spurs tomorrow.
:cheers3:
Huge London derby game tomorrow early. Biggest in ages. And to me, this one just screams value out on one side.
In my eyes, Spurs have been in the best form in the league. And, well, the stats seems to back me up as they are 4-1 in their last 5, and 7-2-1 in their last 10.
They have been very good at home this year, the 2nd most points in the league, and second fewest goals allowed (behind only the mighty United). They have a very organized side, and Alli has been terrific. So long as Ericksen and Kane are out there, this team has a very potent attack.
Arsenal on the other hand are a team in flux here. And further, they are without their first choice gk.
Gunners have only won one of their last 5 away games (@ Bournemouth), and have allowed 3 to United, Livepool and 4 to Southampton. The team is just a mess right now.
this is a game that very well could determine the title, and its easy to understand how Spurs may have been looking ahead of the Hammers midweek, but now they have a home date in a game they must win. Honestly I'm tempted to go BIG bet on this one all the way as the price is so very nice, but decided to play it safe here simply because this is a bit of unknown waters for the Spurs and they could spit the bit here.
Either way give me Spurs -0.25 (+105) 2.10 to make 2.00. I love me some Spurs tomorrow.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
75-63-30 (+10.60)
Feeling a bit unfortunate the past few days, tbh. Mata gets a red halfway through the first half, game United had well in control, and while winning a 1h is tough enough as it is, winning 10v11 1h is near impossible on the road. Pumas/Azul easy winner, thought I had some momo going, and then RedBulls/Toronto play a real shit fest there. Two teams averaged nearly 3gpg each last year, and while I know that was LAST year, ffs, opening day thought we'd get at least btts there and someone getting a winner.
And then the Dynamo lose me a winner on a fucking last touch.
Dynamo ain't going to be great this year, but they'll be tough at home for sure. Added a few nice pieces Mainada and Wenger, if Barnes can stay healthy, I think Dynamo will be strong. when they are able to bring guys off the bench like Boniek-Garcia, who was one of their best players last year, team has some real nice depth this year.
That Timbers/Crew game was a real cracker too. Not sure if it's just me, but Kamara was pouting around most game, like a bitch, not sure his head is into it this year. I think he was having contract issues as it was, and now it seems he just cares about himself. Something I'll keep an eye on a bit.
Anyway, yesterday didn't have much to offer, but today, plenty of games on the card
Gonna start off with one that will surely lose
Zilina/Trencin o2.5 (+114) 2.00 to make 2.28
I know what you're thinking here, you're coming off a rough stretch, why throw out there a two unit play.
Well, this one just seems a gift to me, and wtf am I to be leaving gifts out there. Trencin top of the table, but playing what should be a tough road game here. Trenchin road record this year is a brilliant 8-0-2 with 17 goals scored in 10 road games. But Zilina on the other hand has scored 27 goals in 11 home games, and they allow a gpg to boot. This one has 2-1, 2-2 written all over it in my eyes. Also getting a great price on the home dog at +307, but I'll just root for goals cause that's what I do best. That, and cuss.
:cheers3:
Feeling a bit unfortunate the past few days, tbh. Mata gets a red halfway through the first half, game United had well in control, and while winning a 1h is tough enough as it is, winning 10v11 1h is near impossible on the road. Pumas/Azul easy winner, thought I had some momo going, and then RedBulls/Toronto play a real shit fest there. Two teams averaged nearly 3gpg each last year, and while I know that was LAST year, ffs, opening day thought we'd get at least btts there and someone getting a winner.
And then the Dynamo lose me a winner on a fucking last touch.
Dynamo ain't going to be great this year, but they'll be tough at home for sure. Added a few nice pieces Mainada and Wenger, if Barnes can stay healthy, I think Dynamo will be strong. when they are able to bring guys off the bench like Boniek-Garcia, who was one of their best players last year, team has some real nice depth this year.
That Timbers/Crew game was a real cracker too. Not sure if it's just me, but Kamara was pouting around most game, like a bitch, not sure his head is into it this year. I think he was having contract issues as it was, and now it seems he just cares about himself. Something I'll keep an eye on a bit.
Anyway, yesterday didn't have much to offer, but today, plenty of games on the card
Gonna start off with one that will surely lose
Zilina/Trencin o2.5 (+114) 2.00 to make 2.28
I know what you're thinking here, you're coming off a rough stretch, why throw out there a two unit play.
Well, this one just seems a gift to me, and wtf am I to be leaving gifts out there. Trencin top of the table, but playing what should be a tough road game here. Trenchin road record this year is a brilliant 8-0-2 with 17 goals scored in 10 road games. But Zilina on the other hand has scored 27 goals in 11 home games, and they allow a gpg to boot. This one has 2-1, 2-2 written all over it in my eyes. Also getting a great price on the home dog at +307, but I'll just root for goals cause that's what I do best. That, and cuss.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
This FA Cup replay is such a tough one to cap. Short and sweet I played Arsenal (1H) -0.25 (-126) 1.26 to make 1.00
Hull only has allowed 6 goals at home so far in the Championship, and they played Arsenal last time out to a scoreless draw at the Emirates, thus the replay here.
Arsenal was much the superior side, but truth be told, failed to create many dangerous chances. Sure Hull played 9-10 behind the ball, but wtf did Wengre think they were gonna do? Open it up and go balls out? Arsenal played a few kids, and are doing so again, but have Sanchez and Ozil available off the bench.
Here's the deal though and why I played why I did.
Hull are sitting a solid 3rd in the Championship and with a game in hand, they can very well get into promotion without a playoff. And that is the ultimate goal here. Sure, FA Trophy would be nice, but a semi final run, and then failing to get into the premier next year would be a catastrophe.
Arsenal on the other hand are coming off a pretty tough stretch. Losses to Swansea, Barca, United, and a lucky draw vs Spurs. This team needs some confidence. They need to rest their regulars for a title run, and a prayer vs Barca in the return leg there. They cannot afford another 90, 120 minute game here. So Arsenal has to push for the win, imho.
Hull will more than likely do much the same as the 1st leg, try to hold early and knick a late win or hell, put it to pks. But I just can't see it again. Arsenal have too much talent for them. Too much pace. Slightly concnered with Iwobi playing such a prominent role here, but Flamini offers ample cover, and I'm sure the plan will be just let the wings exploit their advantages and try to offer something to Giroud in the box. Sounds simple, should be simple, it never fucking is simple.
I don't want to get too involved in this match as others are coming up later which will hold my attention, but I feel strong that Arsenal should be on the front foot in the first half to gain the lead, thus the bet.
:cheers3:
Hull only has allowed 6 goals at home so far in the Championship, and they played Arsenal last time out to a scoreless draw at the Emirates, thus the replay here.
Arsenal was much the superior side, but truth be told, failed to create many dangerous chances. Sure Hull played 9-10 behind the ball, but wtf did Wengre think they were gonna do? Open it up and go balls out? Arsenal played a few kids, and are doing so again, but have Sanchez and Ozil available off the bench.
Here's the deal though and why I played why I did.
Hull are sitting a solid 3rd in the Championship and with a game in hand, they can very well get into promotion without a playoff. And that is the ultimate goal here. Sure, FA Trophy would be nice, but a semi final run, and then failing to get into the premier next year would be a catastrophe.
Arsenal on the other hand are coming off a pretty tough stretch. Losses to Swansea, Barca, United, and a lucky draw vs Spurs. This team needs some confidence. They need to rest their regulars for a title run, and a prayer vs Barca in the return leg there. They cannot afford another 90, 120 minute game here. So Arsenal has to push for the win, imho.
Hull will more than likely do much the same as the 1st leg, try to hold early and knick a late win or hell, put it to pks. But I just can't see it again. Arsenal have too much talent for them. Too much pace. Slightly concnered with Iwobi playing such a prominent role here, but Flamini offers ample cover, and I'm sure the plan will be just let the wings exploit their advantages and try to offer something to Giroud in the box. Sounds simple, should be simple, it never fucking is simple.
I don't want to get too involved in this match as others are coming up later which will hold my attention, but I feel strong that Arsenal should be on the front foot in the first half to gain the lead, thus the bet.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
78-63-30 (+14.88)
Peru game abandoned so we'll just get a rebate on that.
Herediano/Uruguay o2.5 (-111) 1.11 to make 1.00
Bonus play
NY Rangers -0.5 (1P) +158 1.00 to make 1.58
Rangers last game at home they were down 3-0 within 5 minutes to the Islanders. Islanders had like the first 10 sog in the game and Rangers were just abused and embarrassed. They came back okay to tie it, but lost it late. That was a Sunday late afternoon game. Buffalo played last night, OT/Shoot out in Toronto. And while I know it's just a short trip, still a bit of travel late to come back home. Rangers are a good first period team, and I have to believe AV will have these guys AWAKE for the 1P at least. I love, love, love this play.
:cheers3:
Peru game abandoned so we'll just get a rebate on that.
Herediano/Uruguay o2.5 (-111) 1.11 to make 1.00
Bonus play
NY Rangers -0.5 (1P) +158 1.00 to make 1.58
Rangers last game at home they were down 3-0 within 5 minutes to the Islanders. Islanders had like the first 10 sog in the game and Rangers were just abused and embarrassed. They came back okay to tie it, but lost it late. That was a Sunday late afternoon game. Buffalo played last night, OT/Shoot out in Toronto. And while I know it's just a short trip, still a bit of travel late to come back home. Rangers are a good first period team, and I have to believe AV will have these guys AWAKE for the 1P at least. I love, love, love this play.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
79-64-30 (+15.35)
Two games coming up later, just getting the plays and write ups in early as my paid subscribers have been begging for early plays.
First up, it seems we are being given another gift and I'm going to take a stab at it with Paksi (pk) at evs 2.00 to make 2.00
Puskas at home is quite pedestrian at 3-4-4 record, and in those 11 games, they have scored just 9 and allowed just 12. Conversely, on the road, they have scored 17 and allowed 26, which to me just shows that they really play much tighter at home. But, unlike poker, tight isn't always right, as you generally need to score to win. Paksi is the superior side in my opinion, and they finished 5th last year, and sitting 7th this year, but just 4 points out of 4th and 14 points ahead of the home side. At first blush you would look at Paksi's road record and not be enthusiastic about this wager as they are 2-5-3 with just 6 goals scored and 11 conceded in 10 road games.....however, in their last 6 road games they are 2-2-2 with the 6 goals scored and 7 conceded, so obviously doing better, with their two road losses coming against superior sides in Debrecen (2nd in the table) and Videoton (3rd).
All this adds up to what should be a low scoring game, I'll take the better side with draw protection here.
One more coming up in just a bit :cheers3:
Two games coming up later, just getting the plays and write ups in early as my paid subscribers have been begging for early plays.
First up, it seems we are being given another gift and I'm going to take a stab at it with Paksi (pk) at evs 2.00 to make 2.00
Puskas at home is quite pedestrian at 3-4-4 record, and in those 11 games, they have scored just 9 and allowed just 12. Conversely, on the road, they have scored 17 and allowed 26, which to me just shows that they really play much tighter at home. But, unlike poker, tight isn't always right, as you generally need to score to win. Paksi is the superior side in my opinion, and they finished 5th last year, and sitting 7th this year, but just 4 points out of 4th and 14 points ahead of the home side. At first blush you would look at Paksi's road record and not be enthusiastic about this wager as they are 2-5-3 with just 6 goals scored and 11 conceded in 10 road games.....however, in their last 6 road games they are 2-2-2 with the 6 goals scored and 7 conceded, so obviously doing better, with their two road losses coming against superior sides in Debrecen (2nd in the table) and Videoton (3rd).
All this adds up to what should be a low scoring game, I'll take the better side with draw protection here.
One more coming up in just a bit :cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Now, I very rarely overweight CL matches, for a number of reasons. First and foremost, I am the worst at handicapping these. Secondly, the lines are generally the sharpest around and lastly, when you have two unfamiliar teams facing each other, it seems anything can fucking happen.
BUT with that being said, I see a situation here where I am sorely tempted to place a max bet.
In the first Benefica/Zenit tilt, I had a lean on the over. Portugese side seems to like to score goals, Zenit was rusty and a road goal would have been huge. I didn't watch the game live, however my all-time favorite commentator had the following to say about this one:
When someone tells you they hate football,torture them & put the DVD of this Benfica/Zenit game onJFC
12:20 PM - 16 Feb 2016
Now, we move onto Russia. Since that time, Zenit has played two games. A 0-0, (1-0 aet) cup tie against Kuban Krasnador and then another exciting 0-0 thriller at FK Krasnador. Seemingly there is still a bit of rust on this Russian side. Zenit know they must win this game to advance, and to win they must score which is something they have had issues doing. Further, if they allow an away goal, they are probably fucked as they'll need get 3 to advance.
Benefica on the other hand are coming off a nice derby win vs Sporting Lisbon. They should be on a high....until you see their injury list. It seems they are down to one centre back, and Julio Cesar who I believe has started every game for them this year is hurt. They are also down a few other players.
So, what does this mean? wtf knows....but the way I see it:
Zenit - knows they need to win and not conceded. 1-0 gives them a chance to win in ET/pks. 2-0 gives them the advance straight out.
Benefica - knows they advance if they do not concede a goal. Or if they allow 1, they have a chance in ET/pks. Or, if they score one, they are sitting in the drivers seat here.
I think Benefica will concentrate solely on possession and keeping a tight defensive formation. They are going against a side struggling to score, but with plenty of danger men. No need for them to get caught out of position too much, and if they do allow a goal, no need to panic as they are not yet done and dusted. I think they play for a scoreless draw.
Zenit again, no need to press for goals, as they only really need 1, so long as they don't concede. Try to stay tight, maybe draw some fouls - get early yellows against a depleted team and a free kick or two for hulk to smash. But, as the game drags on, nets will become smaller and smaller and team will press more and more.
I do like Zenit in this one, as it's very tough to win in Russia in winter (just ask the Germans), but the bet in this game:
u2.5 (-120) 1.20 to make 1.00
I may add to this if my Hungarian's pull through, but I just can't see more than 1-2 goals in this one.
:cheers3:
BUT with that being said, I see a situation here where I am sorely tempted to place a max bet.
In the first Benefica/Zenit tilt, I had a lean on the over. Portugese side seems to like to score goals, Zenit was rusty and a road goal would have been huge. I didn't watch the game live, however my all-time favorite commentator had the following to say about this one:
When someone tells you they hate football,torture them & put the DVD of this Benfica/Zenit game onJFC
12:20 PM - 16 Feb 2016
Now, we move onto Russia. Since that time, Zenit has played two games. A 0-0, (1-0 aet) cup tie against Kuban Krasnador and then another exciting 0-0 thriller at FK Krasnador. Seemingly there is still a bit of rust on this Russian side. Zenit know they must win this game to advance, and to win they must score which is something they have had issues doing. Further, if they allow an away goal, they are probably fucked as they'll need get 3 to advance.
Benefica on the other hand are coming off a nice derby win vs Sporting Lisbon. They should be on a high....until you see their injury list. It seems they are down to one centre back, and Julio Cesar who I believe has started every game for them this year is hurt. They are also down a few other players.
So, what does this mean? wtf knows....but the way I see it:
Zenit - knows they need to win and not conceded. 1-0 gives them a chance to win in ET/pks. 2-0 gives them the advance straight out.
Benefica - knows they advance if they do not concede a goal. Or if they allow 1, they have a chance in ET/pks. Or, if they score one, they are sitting in the drivers seat here.
I think Benefica will concentrate solely on possession and keeping a tight defensive formation. They are going against a side struggling to score, but with plenty of danger men. No need for them to get caught out of position too much, and if they do allow a goal, no need to panic as they are not yet done and dusted. I think they play for a scoreless draw.
Zenit again, no need to press for goals, as they only really need 1, so long as they don't concede. Try to stay tight, maybe draw some fouls - get early yellows against a depleted team and a free kick or two for hulk to smash. But, as the game drags on, nets will become smaller and smaller and team will press more and more.
I do like Zenit in this one, as it's very tough to win in Russia in winter (just ask the Germans), but the bet in this game:
u2.5 (-120) 1.20 to make 1.00
I may add to this if my Hungarian's pull through, but I just can't see more than 1-2 goals in this one.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Late CL game offers a similar story line to the first, as the away team only needing a draw in order to advance.
HOWEVER, If Chelsea gets a goal, then it will be all bets are off, as they will have the advantage of a road goal.
So, how is this one going to play out?
Well, wtf knows, but what I do know is I like PSG here. Chelsea been shit all year long. And when you're shit, there is no way you can just magically turn it on. Sure, anyone can win a one game match, and home field advantage, sure. But PSG been pretty special all year long. they have Ligue One locked up and Chelsea isn't even going to be in Europa next year unless they win the FA Cup, they still even in that one? Honestly, Chelsea's defense is poor, their attack is okay, and a number of guys on this team have taken a huge step back in development. PSG team is littered with veterans who would love nothing more than to add a CL crown to their trophy case. I think road win here would be nice and at the price I'm getting, I'm on it.
PSG -0.5 (+168) 1.00 to make 1.68
:cheers3:
HOWEVER, If Chelsea gets a goal, then it will be all bets are off, as they will have the advantage of a road goal.
So, how is this one going to play out?
Well, wtf knows, but what I do know is I like PSG here. Chelsea been shit all year long. And when you're shit, there is no way you can just magically turn it on. Sure, anyone can win a one game match, and home field advantage, sure. But PSG been pretty special all year long. they have Ligue One locked up and Chelsea isn't even going to be in Europa next year unless they win the FA Cup, they still even in that one? Honestly, Chelsea's defense is poor, their attack is okay, and a number of guys on this team have taken a huge step back in development. PSG team is littered with veterans who would love nothing more than to add a CL crown to their trophy case. I think road win here would be nice and at the price I'm getting, I'm on it.
PSG -0.5 (+168) 1.00 to make 1.68
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
80-66-30 (+13.83)
That last second Benefica goal was a firm kick to the nuts, but PSG doing the Lord's work as usual and got me a bit of my money back, so we'll take what we can get while we can get it.
There are a number of games today for me to pick losers, and I am eyeing one game for a big bet. Going to get a bite to eat and will release official plays in about 40 minutes.
:cheers3:
That last second Benefica goal was a firm kick to the nuts, but PSG doing the Lord's work as usual and got me a bit of my money back, so we'll take what we can get while we can get it.
There are a number of games today for me to pick losers, and I am eyeing one game for a big bet. Going to get a bite to eat and will release official plays in about 40 minutes.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
adding:
United +294 (0.5 to make 1.47)
Bayer LEverkusen pk (+123) 1.00 to make 1.23
Lazio +194 (0.5 to make 0.97)
yeah, I suck at Europa League so I'm just going to tune down my wager size to minimize my losses. Can see a bunch of low scoring shit fests here coming up, may as well pick a few road dogs to try to knick a win.
:cheers3:
United +294 (0.5 to make 1.47)
Bayer LEverkusen pk (+123) 1.00 to make 1.23
Lazio +194 (0.5 to make 0.97)
yeah, I suck at Europa League so I'm just going to tune down my wager size to minimize my losses. Can see a bunch of low scoring shit fests here coming up, may as well pick a few road dogs to try to knick a win.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
81-73-30 (+8.13)
Just terrible run going on. Usually this would mean me posting about 20+ plays today trying to get on a heater.
Wtf am I kidding, will probably post a ton of plays and lose a lot
Start off with al shaab/Al Fujairah o3 (-124) 1.24 to make 1.00
stay tuned....
Just terrible run going on. Usually this would mean me posting about 20+ plays today trying to get on a heater.
Wtf am I kidding, will probably post a ton of plays and lose a lot
Start off with al shaab/Al Fujairah o3 (-124) 1.24 to make 1.00
stay tuned....
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Been a few days my brothers and tonight, boy oh boy do I have something special
83-75-31 (+8.26)
Still doing okay, just seemingly barely missing a few big days. Tonight I have one game on my mind and I'm going in with two fistfulls.
Club America/Santos Laguna o1 (1h) evs 1.50 to make 1.50
Club America/Santos Laguna o2.75 (+138) 2.00 to make 2.76
America has to be coming off a HUGE high after a win in the super classico, and what a fucking game that was. I heard somewhere the ref was fined a million fucking pesos after the game. Red cards, disallowed goals, was fucking awesome soccer. But tbh, America has huge issues in the back. Gotta figure Munoz will be out of goal again. CA without 2 of their first choice CB's for this one. At first blush you would have to think huge value on the home side. But my God I love me some Club America. NFW they try to score here. Huge pressure on them to win some silverware this year, and this competition is ripe for the taking. I was almost tempted to really go for goals here +3.5 at nice odds, but will just play it bigger. This my friends is a sure fire loser because I haven't liked a play this much in a long time
:cheers3:
83-75-31 (+8.26)
Still doing okay, just seemingly barely missing a few big days. Tonight I have one game on my mind and I'm going in with two fistfulls.
Club America/Santos Laguna o1 (1h) evs 1.50 to make 1.50
Club America/Santos Laguna o2.75 (+138) 2.00 to make 2.76
America has to be coming off a HUGE high after a win in the super classico, and what a fucking game that was. I heard somewhere the ref was fined a million fucking pesos after the game. Red cards, disallowed goals, was fucking awesome soccer. But tbh, America has huge issues in the back. Gotta figure Munoz will be out of goal again. CA without 2 of their first choice CB's for this one. At first blush you would have to think huge value on the home side. But my God I love me some Club America. NFW they try to score here. Huge pressure on them to win some silverware this year, and this competition is ripe for the taking. I was almost tempted to really go for goals here +3.5 at nice odds, but will just play it bigger. This my friends is a sure fire loser because I haven't liked a play this much in a long time
:cheers3:
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