2016 Soccer

83-77-31 (+4.76)

books basically giving away money today.....so I'll pluck off a few cherries

Ingolstadt/Hoffenheim o1(1H) -106 (2.12 to make 2.00)
Everton (-0.25) 1H +124 (1.00 to make 1.24)
Eastleigh/Woking o2.5 (-140) 2.80 to make 2.00
Real Madrid/Real Sociedad o2.75 (-115) 1.15 to make 1.00

:cheers3:
 
Heads up, something dodgy seems in play in this AFC match between Lokomotiv Tashkent and Al Nasr.
I took a poke at the draw at -165 (1.65 to make 1.00)

I can't find a line for it at pinnacle, but most of the other outfits have the draw lined at -200 or higher. Not sure, but I'll take a poke.

weekend was okay. Hit my big two bets. updated record 85-79-32 (+7.11)

Looking at a few more games today still :cheers3:
 
86-79-32 (+8.11)

Going to play on Real Madrid/ManCity o2.5 (-141) 1.41 to make 1.00

I'd ordinarily be more confident in goals here, simply because RM defense isn't all that great. But Ronaldo's fitness a concern as is Benzema's absence. RM looks like shit in last match against Sociedad, but this is a match that is HUGE (all caps) for both teams. Tons of money/prestige on the line. City going in with a lame duck manager also concerns me, but they rested all their main guys mid week, so I have to believe they'll be hungry to play. Madrid a tough nut to win on the road.
Both teams have a ton of speed and can score on the counter. Again, a few key concerns otherwise i'd be much more happy playing for goals here. Also possible City get a roadie and park ye old bus.
:cheers3:
 
Anyone looking forward to the upcoming Euro 2016? I would definitely cheer for Team England. But in terms of choosing which team I would put my money on, then that would be Team Germany.
 
No need to do it in Dylan's thread, I'm sure there will be quite the discussion in its own thread and yes, there are several of us that are looking forward to it man
 
Oh, feel free to discuss anything and everything in this thread. The title is 2016 soccer, so any input is encouraged.
Truth be told, my posting has been limited of late anyway. CTG royalty checks starting bouncing, so that didn't help.
Further, I took some of my profits and spent a few weeks over in the UK last month. I tried my best to bring back dearly departed ManUK and Billy. I searched high and low, but alas, I could not find Billy at all. And ManUK simply avoided my calls - granted I was pissed half the time I called anyway.
Now, back in the states, and this little old work thing has gotten in my way. Further, end of leagues are very trying to find goals sometimes, as are cup games....and MLS sure is proving again to be a shit league. Been doing well in Mexico, but haven't had much opportunity to post, but I'll see if I can add some plays here and there throughout the summer.

For today, give me o2.5 (-127) in this Dukla/Sigma Olomac game coming up. 2.54 to win 2.00 in fact. I'll see if I can find any more games later on - but don't count on anything until maybe Mexico

For this weekend, I do have one large play. I may add to this one, as it is an early game, and I don't usually play massive until I have full details in front of me....usually.

Give me PSV - 1.25 (-118) for 1.77 to make 1.50 so far.
Last game of the season in the Eredivise and PSV and Ajax are level on points. But Ajax have a +6 GD advantage. Zwolle with not much to play for other than pride, and while I doubt PSV overcome this deficit, no reason to think they will not win the game in a thumping manner. I'd be more tempted to play the over if the game was at home - and it is already juiced pretty high at o3.5, but PSV been averaging over 3gpg in their last 5 - and have won by at least 2 goals in their last 5 road games. So rather than rooting for goals, just be happy with a 3-0 win here and move on. May jump on a 1h bet too, but at this point I'm happy with the price I'm paying for the PSV team.

:cheers3:
 
dylanphan said:
Give me PSV - 1.25 (-118) for 1.77 to make 1.50 so far.
Last game of the season in the Eredivise and PSV and Ajax are level on points. But Ajax have a +6 GD advantage. Zwolle with not much to play for other than pride, and while I doubt PSV overcome this deficit, no reason to think they will not win the game in a thumping manner. I'd be more tempted to play the over if the game was at home - and it is already juiced pretty high at o3.5, but PSV been averaging over 3gpg in their last 5 - and have won by at least 2 goals in their last 5 road games. So rather than rooting for goals, just be happy with a 3-0 win here and move on. May jump on a 1h bet too, but at this point I'm happy with the price I'm paying for the PSV team.

:cheers3:
Click to expand...
Nice hit - what a joke that Ajax couldn't beat De Graafschap. Just hoping Barcelona somehow manage to slip up against Espanyol to make things interesting next weekend.

:cheers3:
 
Lets fire this thing back up here - with some babbling and some plays

First up, Copa America started up (obviously). US looked pretty meh last night. I really have nothing to be excited about on that US team - too many old guys, imo, that are well past their prime. Klinsmann not very interested in giving up and comers a chance - plays much too safe. I'm always a bit more cynical than the USMNT than most, but I saw nothing last night that may change my opinion and give them much hope in this tournament. They have a very poor history in competitive play against South American teams.

Now, a few teams I'm on that I think offer some value are Mexico and Brazil.
Mexico been playing very good coming into this tournament and I think the higher end talent is about the best they've had in ages. They just beat Chile with basically their B team going against the Chilean A team. They have a good defense, play very disciplined, and quite frankly are VERY annoying to play against. I can see how they are frustrating, and I don't think they mind one bit. Against better teams, they do all they can to disrupt any flow, foul hard, and any time they are fouled, they roll around in the mold of the infamous Italian teams of years gone by, begging for cards. They are actually quite deep too in midfield and defense - their only shortcoming may be in the attack, as they play for a lot of counters, set pieces, and Chicharito has been very good, but ancillary guys have not been nearly as adept at putting the ball in the net. Jiminez has really fallen off in form the past few years, but if he can get his act together, I think this team could run deep. And don't count out the fact they are the defacto home team in just about every match.
Brazil is missing a ton of their super star players - in fact, the lay person will have quite a difficult time naming half their squad, and I think this will really offer some value in them winning. I'm not going to say it doesn't hurt missing the likes of Neymar, and really Costa is another huge hole to be filled. But other guys are missing in name only (Luiz and Silva come to mind). This Brazilian side should play with a chip on their shoulder and I really think they are looking to make their case to be named to the national side for the summer olympics team. I do think this side will be fun to watch, and should control a lot of the games they play - I also tend to think goals will be lacking in their games.
A few teams I'll be looking to fade a bit (as I think they will be overvalued) will be Chile, and the US. Chile will be a popular side coming off their Copa America win, but that was in Chile obviously. Chile really relies a lot on 2-3 key players and after that they are a bit thin.

Anywho, enough pish posh ya'all want to see some losers

Today
Gambia +206 vs S.Africa (1.00 to make 2.06)
Scotland/France o2.5 (-130) 1.30 to make 1.00

Before the tournament started I told myself, 'self, play Paraguay overs...' so I was pleasantly surprised with this line:
Paraguay/Costa Rica o2 (+108) 2.00 to make 2.16

And lastly, Brazil -115 (2.30 to make 2.00)

Made a few bigger plays than normal, but as i have not had any action in a long while, I figured I'd come out here swinging

:cheers3: :cheers3:
 
Didn't realize that was most a "b" team the other night for Mexico, guess that would explain why there were dominated that first half the other day

You know this Copa has a feel of being a 98 World Cup disaster for USA, J. Jones ( JK's BFF) was quoted as saying the gameplan was wrong, and how they over committed defensively to the left hand side ( worried about Cuadrado).

Good luck this tourney. Kinda starting to lean towards Brazil
 
Good luck dylan. Don't get the feeling either Greizmann or Martial start for France today, so might need the Scots to help out a bit.

:cheers3:
 
Wow, I knew International soccer was not necessarily a strength of mine, but my God I stunk it up this weekend.

ytd now in the negative money 88-84-32 (-0.64)

Tonight:
US/CR o2 (-120) 2.40 to make 2.00
Paraguay/Colombia o2 (-110) 2.20 to make 2.00

U.S. didn't look all that bad going forward against Colombia, and I really expect more of the same tonight. I just don't see either team keeping a clean sheet, and certainly the U.S. can get to 2 here. I think this game will be very tense, so an early goal will either lighten the mood a bit or else desperation will set in, either way should lend to goals, imo. I know this is a 'must win' for the U.S. but I have a really hard time backing this team to win.
As mentioned above, I intend to play ever Paraguayian over and here it is again. Colombia should have their way with this team - but I don't feel Paraguay will necessarily be held without opportunity. I liken this one to the Panama/Bolivia game last night. Colombia advances with a win, Paraguay needs points. Don't see a scoreless draw, so hoping we can get to 3.
:cheers3: :cheers3:
 
Adding one for the late game

Ecuador/Peru u2.25 (-106) 2.12 to make 2.00

A lot of love going to Ecuador tonight, but not sure I agree with much all of it. Ecuador probably the better side, but from what I've seen of late - they held against Brazil and got the draw, no goals in that one. They looked disinterested against the U.S. and held until the very end, lost 0-1. I see a very solid yet unspectacular side. Valencia boys are decent enough, but this is quite an older side.
Peru won their first match out and sitting on top of the group. They win here, their through and that would be huge. But so long as they don't get blown out here, they still would have a shot to advance. I just see them packing it in deep, and hoping to knick a late goal, or something on the counter.
In my eyes, this is a tight game. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1. I could have played the u2 at + odds, but I think the second round of games does offer a bit more attacking as teams need to score/win to advance. Either team would be happy with a 1-0 win here, Ecuador more so with Haiti on deck, so really no reason for either team to play too risky.

:cheers3:
 
Okay, I couldn't resist a few Euro future plays and thoughts

Top goal scoring country: France +260
Obviously the team to score the most goals is tipped to go the furthest in the tournament, thus playing the most games. France is the favorite to win at +310, so probably asking why I just didn't play that instead.
Well, few reasons. Firstly, you don't necessarily have to play the most games to win this bet (although of course it helps). The most recent international tournament (thus in my eyes the most relevant for comparison) would be the last World Cup. WC winner Germany scored the most goals (and yes, played the most games). They also had the highest Goals per game. BUT....this was highly skewed with a 7 goal outburst against Brazil, a kind of shock result. If you pare that down to let's say 2 goals, they would have scored the second most goals in the tournament....and their goals per game would have been 5th in the tournament. Still robust, sure. The teams that would have had a higher gpg were Colombia (not in this tournament), Netherlands (also absent) and France. (Croatia is the last, but they did not advance past group stage).
France's strength should most certainly be their attack. Pogba and Payet are a threat from every set piece. Griezemann, Martial and Giroud have to be the most heralded strikers in the tournament. And still have the likes of Kante, Coman, Matuidi to do the heavy lifting in most games. This team if nothing else should be able to put the ball in the net.
Their weakish group is not a huge help, as you have to expect Romania and certainly Albania to sit deep and hope not to get blown out of the water.....however, I think it is a help that the games are played in France - others may see this as a pressure - but I think that pressure would be highest to win the tournament. Games should get tougher as the tournament progresses - but I do see France running deep, so I'll take a punt that they get a bunch of goals.
Also, Germany is not near at full strength in attack, and that would be who is perceived as their main threat to score the most goals in the tournament.

One other thought - I've read somewhere that games in group stage have gone over the 2.5 at a 48% clip in the Euro's. (no source stated, and this is off memory, but I did quickly check this over when I read it). Some seem to feel that with the expanded tournament this year that this may drop, maybe due to dilution of talent? I'm not quite so sure, but I do like to bet an over.

there you go :cheers3:
 
Kicking off Euro's small here with:

France tt o1.5 (-150) 1.50 to make 1.00
France -1.25 (-110) 0.6 to make 0.5

pretty straight forward here. Going half bet on side as I want to see that France backline in action. I am not convinced Romania is going to score in this one, but I figure I already have a full bet in for France to get 2 goals anyway, so let's push the envelope just a teeny bit. Truth be told, it's the only game on this afternoon, otherwise I woulda just put the one bet in. I'm an action junkie ffs.
 
92-86-33 (+2.97)

Probably will not be around till the late game tonight. Early game is juiced to hell with overs, goals, and Chile.
I am not sure I buy it. Just played these for small
Chile -0.75 (1h) -150 (1.50 to make 1.00)
and a small prop for funsies.
Red Card YES +260 (0.2 to make 0.52)
 
92-88-33 (+1.27)

England/Russia o2.25 (-104) 2.08 to make 2.00
Mentioned earlier how there is a higher tendency to get goal in group stage and I think this game sets up nicely for goals. Russia generally plays very back and allows pressure. I think England would like that. While they do have speed to hit on the counter in the likes of Sterling and probably Vardy, I think their better players would do best with possession - Kane, Alli and even Rooney pushed back can pick out open spaces. I think Englands lack of quality in the central back will eventually be their demise and may well be exposed in this match too. I really think both teams score here, so shooting for the winner.
Also, think this game will be feisty and Rizzoli wil do his best to keep it under control. I'm looking for cards, juiced very high right now at o4.5 -200...but I can see 5-6 in this game fairly easily.
 
92-83-34 (+0.23)

Today, going with goals o2.5(-104) 2.08 to make 2.00

another game where I think both teams should score. Germans aren't nearly at full form right now, and that defense does not convince me. Ukraine no slouches, honestly think they can keep this one a game. I'm thinking 2-1 German win here, hoping that's the half time score too.

:cheers3: :cheers3:
 
92-84-34 (-1.85)
Back to the negative numbers, but alas we still have months to go to pull this back into the black.
And with that, onto today!

Newcastle +104 (1.50 to make 1.56)

Told myself that if I could get good numbers on Newcastle this year, I would be on them often. I fully expect them to wire the field in the Championship this year. They are not a huge club, but they are a big club which allows them significant resources that most all other teams in the championship will not have. They petered out pretty bad last year in the premier league, but there have been a number of changes and I do believe they have more talent than they did last year, even with the Sissoko chronicles likely not to be resolved soon. Rafa didn't bail, this team didn't cut bait and in fact strengthened their side in the transfer window. Obviously it would be nice to have Sissoko and Kiote straightened out, but it is what it is.
Craven cottage always a tough away game, but Fulham is just a shell of what it was 4-5 years ago. And then they go sell their top scorer - I just don't see that there is much to like for this year's prospects either.
Considered a max 3 unit play, but ffs it's only August 5th, and plenty of games out there, but I do like this one quite a bit (Sure fire loser :hang: )
 
92-85-34 (-3.35)

Season gearing up, feel I got fucked by ref in Newcastle, two clear penalty shouts not given. Watched quite a bit of games this weekend without much action so I should have more plays obviously as the season goes on.
I do tend to pick and choose my spots early on, simply because I always seem to like 10 plays, but so early in the season I don't have a great feel on the teams. So many managerial/player changes to track.

Today gonna keep it simple with one play:

Sevilla (UEFA-SuperC)/Real Madrid (UEFA-SuperC) Over 2½,3 -116 (1.74 to make 1.50)

Real without a lot of star power here today, but matches between these two teams almost always equate to goals. Morata given a stage to showcase his talents today, and guys that don't normally get starts are getting a chance today to feature (guys like Kovavic for instance whom I love). Game is being played in Norway too, so you have to think they gave Odengard a chance to play here and maybe even get a goal....who knows. Either way, I think thinks one gets to 3 pretty easy.....so, go ahead and play your 0-0 FT props now, easy fucking money.

:cheers3: :cheers3:
 
Adding:
Penarol Montevideo (Copa-Sud)/Luqueno (Copa-Sud) 1st Half Over ½,1 -117 (1.17 to make 1.00)

:cheers3:
 
93-86-34 (-3.02)

Got to the office early today and started looking at games. Ah, I've missed the soccer season and can't wait for all them leagues to start up so I have tons of games to pore over.
In fact there are quite a number of games today, so I will surely find a lot of losers.

I did play this one early though.
Aston Villa +103 @ Luton Town
I thought Villa looked pretty good in fact in their opener and was a bit hard hit with the loss there. And while it's true Aston Villa should just have two goals this year, 1) Get back to the prem and 2) GET BACK TO THE PREM.....I do find an angle here with teams that lost their opener and get a bit of a soft opponent in their second game, albeit a cup tie. The manager wants to get the squad's confidence back up with a win, and a road win all the better as it's always tough to get a result away from home. Villa easily has more talent than Luton a league 2 team. ORdinarily bigger clubs would tend to rest players, but it's only the second game of the season, and fuck, look at Liverpool they played a bunch of key guys in friendlies in the very next day. I think you may see a very similar lineup to what Villa had in their opener to try to gain some continuity and again some confidence. To me, Aston Villa should be priced as a heavier favorite here, so I'll gladly scoop up the + money.

Surely be back later :cheers3:
 
93-87-34 (-4.02)

ManUnited -129 @ Bournemouth 1.29 to make 1.00

Homer bet, but I do think United should get the result here. I like the fact they aren't playing BOTH Carrick and Fellaini, as this should be a more pressing/aggressive lineup. United need more out of Rooney though, he's been a bit of the weak link in the attack. Shaw and Valenica both dangerous, Martial will be a handful, Mata will get the ball into good spaces, but if Rooney isn't linking up with Ibra, well that attack will stall out. I think Bournemouth will have a problem getting a goal here - really think this is a United win to nil.

:cheers3:
 
94-88-24 (-4.02)

Going back to the well here with ManUnited -0.75 (-140) 1.40 to make 1.00

Don't think there is a chance in hell United don't win in Mourinho's home opener. Plus #Pogback

:cheers3:
 
95-88-25 (-3.02)

Should start having bigger cards next week - will not be around much this weekend, but going with these:

Stromgodset/Sarpsburg o2.75 (evs) 1.50 to make 1.50 (8.21)
Lincoln/Southport o.275 (-116) 2.32 to make 2.00
Arsenal/Leicester o2.75 (-104) 1.04 to make 1.00

:cheers3:
 
96-90-25 (-3.56)

Going no where fast here, spinning my wheels, coin flipping, wtf is going on!

San Jose (BOL)/Petrolero Yacuiba (BOL) Over 2½ -150 (3.00 to make 2.00)
Vejle (DEN-1) -135* vs AB Copenhagen (DEN-1) 1.35 to make 1.00
Mjondalen (NOR-1)/Hodd (NOR-1) Over 2½ -124* 1.24 to make 1.00

Have a few Europa league plays for the 1:00 p.m. starts....just waiting on a few things before playing

:cheers3:
 
adding:

AZ Alkmaar (UEFA-Europa) -1 -115* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Vojvodina 1.15 to make 1.00
Lokomotiva Zagreb (UEFA-Europa)/Genk (UEFA-Europa) Over 3 -118 1.77 to make 1.50

:cheers3:
 
97-93-25 (-6.83)
What a cluster yesterday. Bolivia game postponed, late Denmark winner disallowed, and Genk scores one early in each half, and can't buy a goal anywhere else. And fuck those dutch cunts. Europa league is my kryptonite, but no other games going on :hang:

Few for today:
Deportivo La Coruna (ESP-P)/Betis (ESP-P) 1st Half Over ½,1 -135* (2.70 to make 2.00)
Rangers (SCO-P) -1 -144* vs Kilmarnock (SCO-P) -140 (2.80 to make 2.00)

should be two losers easy :cheers3:
 
Oh yeah, one more:
Lorient (FRA-1)/Marseille (FRA-1) Over 2½ -116*

Marseille only one one of their last 12 home matches ffs. And Lorient on the road is just a gas can too. Gotta be some goals in this one
:cheers3:
 
97-96-25 (-13.49)
awesome

Spurs/Pool draw +250 1.00 to make 2.50

Have a shit ton of plays about to go, but will post tomorrow morning.
 
Molde/Stromsgodset o2.5 -147 (2.94 to make 2.00)

Stromsgodset missing their top 2 gks for this one due to suspension and Molde not shy for goals (both for and against) with 74 in 21 games so far this season. I would lean towards the visitors too but Stromsgodset simply dont lose at home. 2-2 in this one should do fine.
:cheers3:
 
Seinajoen JK (FIN-V)/HIFK (FIN-V) Over 2½ +114 (2.00 to make 2.28)

HIFK Helsinki more like Helstinky. Seinajoen away games usually produce goals, at least 2 in their last 7, I like both teams to score here, and hopefully get a third.
Way I've been running it ends at nil.
 
Adding Wolfsburg +158

Love Wolfsburg this year, and been scoring plenty of goals this summer. this is a nice price to me
:cheers3:
 
100-97-25 (-9.85)
Kinda pissed about that Stromsgodset game as that was a 5 unit swing pretty much and one of the games I felt best about as the home side hadnt lost in 18 league games, yet couldn't score one fucking goal.
OH WELL. Onto today.

Racing Genk -102 (1.02 to make 1.00)
Odd/Valenegra o3 (evs) 2.00 to make 2.00

:cheers3:
 
101-97-26 (-8.85)

Who doesn't love lower league German football??

Starting off small with Stuttgart Kickers +120 (1.00 to make 1.20)

:cheers3:
 
101-98-26 (-9.85)
Kickers blow two second half leads, last one at the 90' to cost me the win. ughhh

Going with Haka +103 early (1.00 to make 1.03)
:cheers3:
 
Adding:

Eastleigh -1.75 (+111) 2.00 to make 2.22
Lincoln/Torquay o2.75 +105 2.00 to make 2.10

Luton Town -105 (1.05 to make 1.00 - tailing a tip I got on this one, I didn't quite feel it but I'll throw a unit on it and see how it goes.)

:cheers3:
 
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