2.20 Season II

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Enjoyed the ALL STAR weekend and did quite well.

Suns travel to LAC - Looks like PHO is healthy getting a less then 100% Nash back and the return of Kurt Thomas. Thomas will ease the absence of Boris Diaw still listed as doubtful. The Clippers though are listing Brand and Mobley as questionable. LAC has won the past 3 home meetings vs PHO and the have split in early 2006/07 season. Suns off 3 SU losses but long weekend one would think for Amare , Marion and even Nash. The good is it wasnt much of a trip from Pho. Curious on the line as PHO has not been favored recently in LAC.

Memphis travels Seattle: We should see alot FTs , open 3's and easy layups. So the Over 226 looks extremely attractive. Both teams are well rested and should have fresh legs. I dont think Seattle should be 7 pt favs over many teams certainly not Memphis. The Grizz hung tough @ Indiana and they should do well here as its a perfect matchup. Will be on teh over and thinking about MEM +7 and some ML as well.

Utah @ Portland : Dont trust either here. Not Utah as road chalk with Boozer or Blazers as a short dog vs quality team. What is interesting is a 1st H under and possibly 1st H Portland. Since both teams have played some defense before the break.

Bos @ Sac : Had this at about 6.5 so its basically where it should be. Martin has an injured finger so be cautious of that. Game I have no interest in really. Boston has been a cash cow on teh road but can they do it with increased expectations? All they had to do was avoid getting blownout previously now they have to actually try and win these. Have to look at the over since Boston ahs been allowing 103+ on the road..but only if remains in the 202 range...

Atl travels to Chi : Would have expected 8 or 8.5 here....no interested in either though...Will look at the UND 190 though...

Minny @ Wash : With Arenas , Butler and KG involed in the AS game I have to like the under. That with Wiz offense struggling of late w/ AJ. Right now cant see how Wash is favored over an avg West Conf team...Max play on the Under 203 and 1st H (combo of the two) ...

NO travels to Char: Still dont see the value in NO as road favs....so like the doggie

Still some NL games...woulndt expect NYK to be more then -3
 
So basically really like Minny +3.5 , along with Mem +7 . Port +2.5 and Char +2. Some people @ Covers are reporting Deron Williams is Questionable FWIW.

The totals like Under 203 Minny , Under 190 Chi , Under 1st H Portland , Over Seattle and semi-leans on Und Char and Over Kings
 
Thanks Cake , Steed and Duy. GL tonite

The Sac total does look a bit low I just worry about teams being flat tonite outside of the Sea-Mem matchup.
 
Forget questionable about DW. He's doubtful from radio reports. I'd be suprised if he goes from what I'm hearing. Tweaked his groin in the Sophmore/Rookie game.

I just looked at the line and it seems that it's pretty well known at this point.
 
Today:

Minnesota at Washington
Under 203 Wash {6units} -6.60 (FUCK U REFS!)
Under 102.5 1st H {4units} +4.00
Minny +3.5 {4units} middling with Was ML -140 (SPLIT)

The lesser of two evils right now is Minny. However you cant get crazy taking a road team who is just 1-8 SU away past 9. They played better going into the break but both teams are works in progress. If this line continues to drop then I may middle...not very interested in Minny at +2....Wiz are 2-4 SU past 6 at home and everyone feels Arenas is wearing down. Wolves have some size but Blatche could make it interesting at 6'11

The Under simply for the struggles Wash offense (39% fg and 22% 3P's)has had coupled with Eddie Jordan pleading with them to play more defense. Inserting Blanche is a 1st step. Throw in the Vegas weekend factor for KG, Arenas and Butler .

New Orleans at Charlotte
Bobcats +2 {3units} +3.00

Still dont believe in Hornets as road chalk. Charlotte won 3 of 4 at home before the break with the lone loss in OT. See what happened to NO @ Philly and @ Memphis?? Still cant count on them to win away when it deteremines if you cash or not. Really thought about the under but it kept dropping. Previous meeting was 94-85 and peja had 42 and may had 18. So different teams in a sense

Orlando at New York
NYK -2 {3units} +3.00

As well as NY plays at home they are rarely favored. Think Kobe-less LAL where they were only -2 or LAC who was -1 @ MSG. Lean my Knick and over cause they should see alot of FTs

Detroit at Milwaukee

Under 97.5 Milw 1st Half {4units} +4.00

Combination of Redd coming back and Rip possibly less then 100%. Last meeting was 44-41 at half. Dont really favor a side but would be cautious of Milw as redd should be rusty

Denver at San Antonio
AI ??

Under 202.5 {2units} +2.00

Just feelin Unda's today. Melo , Duncan , Parker involved in the AS weekend. AI returning from injury. TP said that when they get back to SA it will be that grinding pace still...SA defense improving lately and DEN scoring away has been so-so of late ..
Atlanta at Chicago
Under 190 Chi {4units} +4.00 (thankfully Salem missed with 6 secs left)
Under 93.5 1st Half {3units} +3.00

Last meeting went Under and thanks to Western treks for both they inflated this one by 4 points.

Utah at Portland
Blazers +2.5 {5units} Utah +2 {1unit} as middle
Under 190 Portland {2units}
1st H Under 92 {3units} -3.30

Played it last nite before Williams announced out. Had eyed the 1st H Under but not all that much value but still expect 85-88 pts. Wasnt crazy about road chalk with Boozer OUT and PORT playing better but a PK with 2 starters out and Okur involved at AS weekend??

Boston at Sacramento
Really no opinion here. Could see it real high scoring or real low scoring. Bos has been ATS road heroes this season . They could give Sac trouble as they played them okay w/o Pierce..

Memphis at Seattle

Over 226 memphis {5units}
Over 113.5 1st H {3units} +3.00
Lean memphis +7.5


Perfect spot for an over. Lots of rest to run and gun effeciently and only Ray Allen played this weekend which is a good thing...Not sure SEA is 7 pts better then anyone...MEM has improved slightily of late....

Phoenix at L.A. Clippers
Have to look at over with 10 of 11 hitting. I cant seem to get excited about SUns here at -5.5 when they were +4.5 in the 1st meeting. Suns off 3 losses but had 3 guys involved in Vegas....Nash back but claims to not be 100%.....Mobley questionable for LAC and Brand probable after some long rest......

BOL will be updating this throughout the day! GL
 
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JPicks said:
Forget questionable about DW. He's doubtful from radio reports. I'd be suprised if he goes from what I'm hearing. Tweaked his groin in the Sophmore/Rookie game.

I just looked at the line and it seems that it's pretty well known at this point.
Click to expand...


Thanks J . I hit that last nite anticipating he was OUT.
 
Love that under in Washington. I'm beginning my auto under plays on the Wizards today. Well not auto, but I really expect to see them come much more frequently in the 2nd half.

Also have to agree with the Over in Seattle. Memphis has a terrible time guarding anybody outside, Allen and Lewis, and the Sonics have nobody to stop Gasol on the inside. Looks like a great spot.

Looks like I'll be the only one on the Hornets tonight. I love playing the Bobcats, but I really think the Hornets have to grab all of the close games they can to try and sneak into the playoffs. Recent road losses were actually against Memphis and SACRAMENTO. Lost to Philly at home. Last game before Paul came back. They're 6-2 SU with Paul, West and Jackson all back. The loss against Memphis on the road was a tough home/home meeting. Loss against Sac on the road was 3rd in 4 nights after beating Houston and Minnesota. Mixed in between those two losses were wins on the road at Denver and at Houston. I think you might be undervaluing this team at full strength. Just suprised you'd play the Bulls on a b2b -2 @ Charlotte, and be 4 units strong against the Hornets with a similar line and a better spot for the visitor.
 
The road loss I was talking about was 1/23 @ Philly. They had West but not Paul . Sixers were struggling at the time though. Was trying to say in road games where they are small dogs or small favs they still havent shown they can win those games. I actually thought CHI would have had there shit together but I was so wrong...could be here to. I just wont play NO as small chalk or small dog on the road till they win one of those games. Not counting the 1st two games of the season NO is 1-5 ATS as small dogs of +3.5 or less or road chalk...naturally injuries played a large roll but still 8-17 is 8-17....


Bobcats have managed to beat GSW , NYK and CHI not shabby...


The b2b situations can get over played IMO....Bulls just havent really overcome the loss of Noiconi . NO is just 2-4 SU past 6 away and one win was a gift in DEN.

Just a fade of the situational role as road chalk...GL
 
Really liking your card today.

The Milwuakee play looks good, Detroit plays extemely well on the road and should be able to contain Redd. The fact that he is just coming back should make it all the more easier and I also think that Milwuakee will try to run the offense through Redd so if he struggles the team struggles, like it.

Memphis plus the points seems interesting as well, just as much as the total. Neither of these teams has really proved to play much defense. Going to investigate this game a little more.

All I know is that I will be placing a wager tonight, my interest is in Pheonix.

Good Luck, will most likely be making a bet or two that you have made.
 
Thanks MX. Good Luck to u tonite. I just hate laying so much with PHO might wait till Half to get involved
 
Thanks Farm. Yeah , the layoff sort makes you miss it. Really though I am getting bored with baskets. It doesnt even take homework anymore its a matter of instincts. Not that mine are good its just that time of year were its the same crap you look at over and over again...cannot wait for MLB... GL

Thanks Satyr and BOL bro!
 
Sports, can not wait for MLB, hey. Is that one of your prime areas in capping? The major league is one area where I sort of lack knowledge. It's sort of the one sport that I haven't paid much attention to other than the Brewers, those frickn' guys! Usually attend some of the games.
 
I would say that in the recent years pro sports have become my forte. I used to excel at CFB and CBB but I think my 'production' has slacked off past 2 seasons. I just dont put in the same research efforts I once did. I would say that MLB is my best sport , followed by the NFL , then the NBA. Once MLB starts coming around I have told myslef I am gonna reinvent my ways of attacking handicapping. Trying for fewer selections with greater unit sizes.. At least things are looking up in MILW.....BOL


PROPS:

Over 12 Even David Lee {4units} +4.00 : Everything that happened in the Rookie/Soph game was a major plus for Mr. Lee. You would think he may have earned a few more minutes from Coach Thomas . As well as some more confidence from his teammates. Which might mean more then a few putbacks on offense.

Over 28.5 Ray Allen -110{2units} & Pau Gasol Over 21.5 -130 {2units}: Simply see alot of scoring in the MEM @ SEA matchup.

Over 20.5 -115 Mehmet Okur {1unit} : No Williams or Boozer someone has to shoot...

Over 11 rebounds Amare -105 {1unit} & Marion -115 {1unit}: Brand probably less then 100% here. Thomas works his way back and Diaw is doubtful

BOL
 
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2nd H : 2-1 -0.20

Over 101 Was {1unit} small hedge +1.00
Minny -2 {2units} -2.20 (Another fuck job Minny lead all 2nd H by 2+ )
NO -3.5 {1unit} Small middle +1.00
 
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2nd H
Over 97.5 NYK {2units} +2.00

How bout the Lee theory and prop? NO FGs attempted 1st H....LOL!
 
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Its done! Hate fucking game Unders.....damn TECH fouls like every 3 seconds there...should have hedged more at half...

2nd H :
Bucks +!.5 {2units}
 
Yeah I haven't exactly been super sucessful with any over under bet this year, sort of stayed away from them. Looks like you did good with the Bucks under and Den/SA hopefully looks the same in the second half as they did in the first.
 
gotta sweat this 2nd half knick over after they score 61 in the 3rd q 'an_horse'
 
MX_259 said:
Yeah I haven't exactly been super sucessful with any over under bet this year, sort of stayed away from them. Looks like you did good with the Bucks under and Den/SA hopefully looks the same in the second half as they did in the first.
Click to expand...

I just dont think you can be successful this season with unders UNLESS the general bias is largely on the over...and it makes the number totally out of whack. It seems every game finds a way to go over....

The FT % and attempts combined with Tech FTs was absurd.....its to the point where you have to start finding out who is officating games IMHO...

The difference is bewteen +10 and -2.60...so 13 unit swing one play.....what can u do.....I dont have th heart to lay 10 units on a half play...
 
The 2nd H over better be aided by FT's like the Wash one got screwed......very happy Mr.Lee got to 12 he will be back in
 
SportsNut said:
I just dont think you can be successful this season with unders UNLESS the general bias is largely on the over...and it makes the number totally out of whack. It seems every game finds a way to go over....

The FT % and attempts combined with Tech FTs was absurd.....its to the point where you have to start finding out who is officating games IMHO...

The difference is bewteen +10 and -2.60...so 13 unit swing one play.....what can u do.....I dont have th heart to lay 10 units on a half play...
Click to expand...

No I am not attempting huge bets on a half play either, not the second anyways. Knowledge of the officials would probably be a helpful tool in capping totals.
 
Here comes tip off for Portland. I played $25 on the -.5 1st quarter with the Blaze. Hoping all the injuries stick to Utah. Small bet but hey let's go blazers!
 
LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

you owe me SportsNut i called him at half for a favor
 
Thanks Cake ur right...I actually had faith in it. The best part is only I know the 'lock' powers you have...


Good backdoor over.....in NYK...up 6 with 6 to play secs that is!!


Thanks retburj for the Lee prop props!
 
Well I lost out $25 on Portland, and it kind of dissapoints me only cuz I wasn't really planning on playing it at all. I played Det 1st quarter $25 and cashed out, my other play was Pheonix $100 1st q
 
cont. oops.
anyways at least I am up $100 in my first night of betting in like a month and a half
 
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