12/20/14 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Western Michigan vs Air Force)

[Administrator]

Who do you like and why?

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[TD="colspan: 7"]5:45 PM EST[/TD]
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[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]207 WESTERN MICHIGAN
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[TD="class: line"]-2 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-1.5 / -1.5 -07 / -1.5 -05[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-1 -05[/TD]
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[TD="class: halftime"][/TD]
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[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]208 AIR FORCE[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]56.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]56.5 / 56[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]56.5[/TD]
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[TD="class: score"]
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[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]Afa-QB-Kale Pearson-Probable | Afa-RB-Jacobi Owens-OUT | TV: ESPN, DTV: 206. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
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[TheGarfather]

This should be one of the more challenging and fun games to cap. I'm looking forward to this almost as much as the bigger games.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Think it's all about figuring out how good this young Bronco's staff (and team) is at stopping the option. I love WMU this year, & think they are going to be really good next year....but this MAY be one of the worst match ups they could have asked for if they aren't familar w/ the triple-option, even though they have a couple weeks to prepare

 

[s--k]

Over 56.5?

 

[RetroVK]

yup

 

[aplous]

When bowl season hits....fade the MAC.

Havent pulled numbers but pretty sure they get rolled nearly every year.

 

[wiseplayer]

And the MAC was the weakest I've seen in recent memory.

 

[inZane]

Western Mich is 0-5 in bowl games. The Force is smarter, more motivated and one of two teams in the nation to beat multiple 10-win opponents. They beat CSU (10-2) and Boise St., (11-2).

 

[s--k]

Not sure that AF is more motivated. Think it would be equal for both teams.

WMich was horrible, just awful last year under 1st year HC Fleck. Now in the 2nd year of rowing the boat they get to the light at the end of the tunnel. 0-5 in bowls, but not with this coaching staff.

Both teams will be very happy to be playing in this game I'd say.

Lotta credit to AF for the CSU win. The Boise win was all turnovers. Boise had 8 more FDs, 132 more total yards, but was -5 in the TO department.

Would think these offenses have their way witheach other.

A couple things I came across:

AF run O 8th 272ypg (4.46) - pass eff O 11th nationally.
WM run O 53rd 178.5 (4.49) - pass eff O 5th nationally.

AF pass eff D 73rd. 6 of AF's 9 non-option opponents passed for 300+ yards (3 of those over 350+).

WM has a decent run D 37th with 142.67 ypg, but WM allowed 656y combined rushing vs NILL, Toledo and Purdue (218ypg). 308 to VT if you want to factor that.

WM ranks among the lowest dozen teams with fewest tfl per game 4.83. (AF a little better with 6.42).

WM is also in the bottom 1/3 of teams on 3rd down conv D at over 41%. (AF is pretty good at 33%).

AF has the 11th best 3rd down conv O and WM has the 12th best 3rd down conv O (48.5%).


I'd say OVER. Hard for me to pick a side.

 

[aplous]

Force impressed me in their last game against CSU....I think they roll WM

 

[Schrute]

Summary:
WMU 0-5 bowl games
AFA has great kicker which could be difference in a close game
WMU giving up over 4 ypc which isn't good against the option
WMU gave up 5.8 and 6.2 ypc to the other Top 20 rushing offenses they faced this year
WMU only has 2 weeks to prepare and didn't play an option team all year
Both with solid coaches but advantage to Calhoun IMO
HFA will favor Air Force but only slightly
Motivational angle - meh, nothing huge here
WMU 10-1 in last 11 ATS
Under is 10-2 in AFA last 12 non-con games


I'll likely be playing Air Force Academy at less than a FG here

 

[bull]

I've had good success betting on WM this year, going 4-0.
I think overall they are 8-4 ATS ?
Still I think AFA out of the MW is capable enough of beating one of the better MAC teams. Certainly WM seems a cut below Colorado St.