time to post my 2018 bowl thread so far

Been crickets on the subject although perry did post on a teammates IG that he is suspended. Didn’t say for how long
 
Canes1 said:
x


Yes Gerald Willis is out with a finger injury.

After Perry, it would be jarren Williams, who threatened to transfer a week ago, but Richt convinced him to stay.

Tons of negative publicity down here. Lots of call for riicht to fire or reassign his son and hire an OC. Team fell apart like they did in the Golden years. Lots of anonymous reports that players start freelancing when things go wrong.

I think the D rallys around Manny and produces a ferocious effort, but your guess is as good as mine about what happens on offense. Losing Jeff Thomas was a gamechanger in a bad way.

And that perry kid is a real idiot.
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ugh if it is Williams .. not that it can be a big drop off or that it is a bad decision for the Canes but that isn't good.

The WR effort is questionable .. i don't mean that they just have scheme issues or trouble getting open .. looks like they quit sometimes.
 
In response to your post, I think the D will care. And with the backup qb for wisky, that should be enough for a canes win and cover.
 
Canes1 said:
Been crickets on the subject although perry did post on a teammates IG that he is suspended. Didn’t say for how long
Click to expand...

Unless there are intentional games being played (I don't think so based on reports of snap reps - which indicated Rosier got most and Williams next most) he is suspended for something, probably the game.
 
RetroVK said:
ugh if it is Williams .. not that it can be a big drop off or that it is a bad decision for the Canes but that isn't good.

The WR effort is questionable .. i don't mean that they just have scheme issues or trouble getting open .. looks like they quit sometimes.
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Williams has taken 4 snaps this season I believe.

I think you can question everything regarding the WR. Thomas was only one to get open consistently and that was bc of elite athleticisim. Everyone left is either a big body possession WR (cager and langham) or young. Think Hartley could be good over time.

The WR know if they get open deep, rosier doesn’t have the arm strength to get the ball to them. Rosier admitted as much publically this season in comments about Thomas.

Richt reminds me of mike McCarthy. Stubborn about plays that worked 10 years ago and doesn’t want to adjust to today’s game

Be interesting to see how the school plays this out, as richt as a TON of goodwill built up after last season results and getting the indoor practice facility built. He donated 1mm of his own money and helped spearhead fundraising.
 
RetroVK said:
Unless there are intentional games being played (I don't think so based on reports of snap reps - which indicated Rosier got most and Williams next most) he is suspended for something, probably the game.
Click to expand...

Best case you can hope for, is about 55% CP% from rosier and no turnovers. And the canes OL can open some holes for homer and Dallas. And Dallas does something significant in the return game
 
Also richt should be able to muster up some us vs the world motivation. LOT of negative press down here for weeks.
 
Confirmed now that Rosier is the starter. Perry NOT suspended.

My guess is that he plays the entirety of the game unless he’s terrible.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Now the question is which QB is more of a downgrade?
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My feelings is Miami's is much more of a downgrade. Rosier does have more experience but as VK noted that is experience largely in not being good. I was high on him coming into the season but I'm not too proud to admit I was wrong.

With Coan, I think there may be reason for limited, cautious optimism. Hornibrook has been terribly inconsistent this year, and, somehow, someway, more error-prone than 2018. Coan's first start came on the road at Northwestern (which has been their personal House of Horrors in the past decade or so). Played mop-up time against Rutgers the next week, then started at Penn State and at Purdue. I *think* Purdue was the only game where he was the locked-in starter at the beginning of game week. And while he didn't have great overall numbers there, he did show some moxie and make some real nice plays in the fourth quarter/OT to help Taylor rally for a win (down 14 in fourth quarter).

For this game, he'll have 2+ weeks of prep as the undisputed starter for the first time, and it will be his first non-true road game as a starter. He's also a NY native so weather shouldn't bother him. Coan is a bit more mobile that Hornibrook, as well.

So with Wisconsin I don't see much drop off at the position, without an outside shot of possibly seeing a step forward. With Miami, I don't think it can be spun any way other than a legitimate downgrade.
 
All that being said, I think this is a game won in the trenches, not by QB play (although QB play in the form of INTs could certainly help lose it).
 
Well, I may not know enough about Coan (particularly since I call him Choan more times than not and cannot quit the habit. But there is only so much of a downgrade from Perry that is even possible because he isn't that good either. the Biggest part of the downgrade is that it just seems his teammates try harder for him ... which is a big deal but not part of the physical skills part.
 
So they canceled a bowl game ...

I cannot tell you how angry I would be.

If I could have handpicked a bowl game (prior to knowing results of them) to get canceled this was the one.

Awful.
 
Canes1 said:
Also richt should be able to muster up some us vs the world motivation. LOT of negative press down here for weeks.
Click to expand...

If Richt was really motivated he would have had the team practice more than 7 or 8 times. I believe that he has pretty much lost all motivation to coach and is only doing so to pad his bank account and keep his son employed as long as possible.
 
Just feel I have the most dominant unit on the field and the revenge from last years bowl on my side, along with some recency of the two teams that points to Miami as well.

They are just hard to trust at all
 
Uhhhhh where is GT.

Still a half and Admiral great at adjustments but sorry for the whiff on this cap ladies and gents
 
Jimmydafreak said:
From a wagering standpoint, any team coached by Mark Richt is untrustworth, but I wish you the very best of luck with your wager.
Click to expand...

Agreed w Jim. No talk down here about revenge for last year. As I have mentioned, think the motivation comes from do it for Manny. As he has put many of these kids in a great defense and a position to get paid, which is all they care about.
 
The bad news is that I haven't been doing good. The good news is that I do like the remainder of the bowl season.


ADDS
duke/temple over 53
Scarolina/uva over 53.5
Missouri -8
NW 7.5
Miss State/Iowa Under 43.5
 
Games Awaiting action:

Sun Bowl/Chico's Tacos bowl - Stanford vs Pitt (Lean Pitt)
Citrus Bowl - Kentucky vs Penn State (Lean Penn State)
Rose Bowl - Washington vs Ohio State (Lean Washington)
Sugar Bowl - Texas vs Georgia (Not sure)
Redbox Bowl - MSU vs Oregon (Not sure)
 
RetroVK said:
The bad news is that I haven't been doing good. The good news is that I do like the remainder of the bowl season.


ADDS
duke/temple over 53
Scarolina/uva over 53.5
Missouri -8
NW 7.5
Miss State/Iowa Under 43.5
Click to expand...
Yes, yes, yes, don’t know, and meh...threw a little on Duke TT and sprinkled the ML. Time to get our heads out our asses. GL Today. As you can see, I’ll be routing for you.
 
Thoughts on NW/Utah? I lean towards NW as well but the line looks a bit trap'ish.

Also would this mean that OSU would be lined at -7 vs Utah?
 
AliShaheed said:
Thoughts on NW/Utah? I lean towards NW as well but the line looks a bit trap'ish.

Also would this mean that OSU would be lined at -7 vs Utah?
Click to expand...

In that area, yes.

The hard parts are knowing enough about Huntley status, and coming to grips with playing against Wittingham in a bowl game. He loves winning bowl games. Basically see the game coming down to my expectation that Utah is conservative and that NW cares just as much and we get a close game down to the wire.
 
pressitup said:
haha

It was a turd floater all night , tho.
I'm about to walk out and survey the area. I'm hoping the leaves that I didn't get to were washed down the street.
Click to expand...


I had no idea that the third quarter of that game yesterday would be the most watchable football of the day.
 
Im getting beat up after my big GT bet and losing a pk vs 24 yards passing lol.

Will be happy to break even, lets turn it around!
 
How bad am I at motivation capping? How bad are you?


Army vs Navy
North Carolina A&T vs Alcorn State
North Texas vs Utah State
Tulane vs Louisiana
Fresno State vs Arizona State
Ga Southern vs Eastern Michigan
MTSU vs App State
UAB vs NIU
SDSU vs Ohio
Marshall vs USF)
FIU vs Toledo
Western Michigan vs BYU
Memphis vs Wake Forest
Houston vs Army
Buffalo vs Troy
LT vs Hawaii
Minnesota vs Georgia Tech
California vs TC
Temple vs Duke
Miami vs Wisconsin (New York)
Baylor vs Vanderbilt

My Large Bowl Motivation advantages (Motivated Teams went 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS)
North Texas (Utah State without coaches playing in a lackluster game despite their season)
MTSU (my second largest motivation advantage, Father-Son combo for last game, App State loses coach and plays opponent hard to get up for)
UAB (program from gone to conference championship and wanting bowl win badly, NIU off miracle conf champ win against superior opponent)
Army (houston locker room issues, Army always shows, houston HFC motivational ability?)
Buffalo (Troy reward is close to home game, Buffalo off humiliating loss, looking to cap one of best seasons in program history, looking for first bowl win, NFL prospects playing)
Georgia Tech (largest motivation advantage in bowls. PJ last game, last game for option in P5 which is his baby, meaningless game for Minny to have to prep for never seen option on short bowl vs not so exciting opponent)


My Small Bowl motivation advantages (Motivated Teams went 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Tulane (Reading articles they appeared to be very interested in bowl win comparatively)
Fresno state (Zero motivation for Ariz St, some small Fresno st motivation playing Pac12)
Eastern Michigan (lobbied for bowl bid)
Wake (Memphis off disappointing conf Champ which was their super bowl, Wake fought hard to make bowl)
Hawaii (home game. Island fan base wanted Warriors in this bowl badly three weeks prior to end of the season, LT to hawaii reward)
Miami - revenge from bowl a year ago, Diaz stays to coach defense, wiscy off disappointing year playing opponent they beat in more major bowl last year. mitigated to small advantage due to miami rewarded with going to shitty NYC and the cold. (retrospect Richt/Rosier combo probably demotivated)




My indifferent or not sure (Teams I selected went 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)
Army/Navy (Both motivated)
NCAT/Alcorn State (both unclear to me and likely motivated)
SDSU/OHIO (none noted)
Marshall/USF (none noted)
FIU/Toledo (none noted)
Western/BYU (none noted)
Cal/TCU (none noted)
Temple/duke (none noted)
Vandy/Baylor (I gave slightest of nods to Vandy but not big enough to put in small motivation advantages)


So where I did the best was where I didn't really account for motivation much. Where the biggest perceived edges were via motivation I lost a lot of money. To not sugar coat it .. I weight my cap of the X's and O's of the game way more than anything else so not saying I played GT on motivation alone or Buffalo on motivation alone (despite being two of my more mismatched motivation angles) and you can see I disregarded the large motivation edge I gave UNT when I took Utah State.

My point .. and one that I have illustrated many times in the past during bowl season, is that motivational capping for bowls is extremely difficult and often fools gold.

There is often a team that doesn't show up as much as another and looking back we think of those games and say that bowl motivation is huge. It is. It is definitely huge. But predicting which team that is .... well that appears to be a different story when it comes to doing so accurately.

Again, I have pointed this out for years so the small sample I am illustrating here is not in a vacuum.

Good luck today with your action kids.
 
RetroVK said:
How bad am I at motivation capping? How bad are you?


Army vs Navy
North Carolina A&T vs Alcorn State
North Texas vs Utah State
Tulane vs Louisiana
Fresno State vs Arizona State
Ga Southern vs Eastern Michigan
MTSU vs App State
UAB vs NIU
SDSU vs Ohio
Marshall vs USF)
FIU vs Toledo
Western Michigan vs BYU
Memphis vs Wake Forest
Houston vs Army
Buffalo vs Troy
LT vs Hawaii
Minnesota vs Georgia Tech
California vs TC
Temple vs Duke
Miami vs Wisconsin (New York)
Baylor vs Vanderbilt

My Large Bowl Motivation advantages (Motivated Teams went 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS)
North Texas (Utah State without coaches playing in a lackluster game despite their season)
MTSU (my second largest motivation advantage, Father-Son combo for last game, App State loses coach and plays opponent hard to get up for)
UAB (program from gone to conference championship and wanting bowl win badly, NIU off miracle conf champ win against superior opponent)
Army (houston locker room issues, Army always shows, houston HFC motivational ability?)
Buffalo (Troy reward is close to home game, Buffalo off humiliating loss, looking to cap one of best seasons in program history, looking for first bowl win, NFL prospects playing)
Georgia Tech (largest motivation advantage in bowls. PJ last game, last game for option in P5 which is his baby, meaningless game for Minny to have to prep for never seen option on short bowl vs not so exciting opponent)


My Small Bowl motivation advantages (Motivated Teams went 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Tulane (Reading articles they appeared to be very interested in bowl win comparatively)
Fresno state (Zero motivation for Ariz St, some small Fresno st motivation playing Pac12)
Eastern Michigan (lobbied for bowl bid)
Wake (Memphis off disappointing conf Champ which was their super bowl, Wake fought hard to make bowl)
Hawaii (home game. Island fan base wanted Warriors in this bowl badly three weeks prior to end of the season, LT to hawaii reward)
Miami - revenge from bowl a year ago, Diaz stays to coach defense, wiscy off disappointing year playing opponent they beat in more major bowl last year. mitigated to small advantage due to miami rewarded with going to shitty NYC and the cold. (retrospect Richt/Rosier combo probably demotivated)




My indifferent or not sure (Teams I selected went 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)
Army/Navy (Both motivated)
NCAT/Alcorn State (both unclear to me and likely motivated)
SDSU/OHIO (none noted)
Marshall/USF (none noted)
FIU/Toledo (none noted)
Western/BYU (none noted)
Cal/TCU (none noted)
Temple/duke (none noted)
Vandy/Baylor (I gave slightest of nods to Vandy but not big enough to put in small motivation advantages)


So where I did the best was where I didn't really account for motivation much. Where the biggest perceived edges were via motivation I lost a lot of money. To not sugar coat it .. I weight my cap of the X's and O's of the game way more than anything else so not saying I played GT on motivation alone or Buffalo on motivation alone (despite being two of my more mismatched motivation angles) and you can see I disregarded the large motivation edge I gave UNT when I took Utah State.

My point .. and one that I have illustrated many times in the past during bowl season, is that motivational capping for bowls is extremely difficult and often fools gold.

There is often a team that doesn't show up as much as another and looking back we think of those games and say that bowl motivation is huge. It is. It is definitely huge. But predicting which team that is .... well that appears to be a different story when it comes to doing so accurately.

Again, I have pointed this out for years so the small sample I am illustrating here is not in a vacuum.

Good luck today with your action kids.
Click to expand...
This.
 
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