time to post my 2018 bowl thread so far

I read that FIU QB is OUT.
Are you sticking with FIU 6, or switching to Toledo -4 1h, or neither. ? Thanks.
 
bull said:
I read that FIU QB is OUT.
Are you sticking with FIU 6, or switching to Toledo -4 1h, or neither. ? Thanks.
Click to expand...

My plan was to get off of FIU on the news but I was late and it was steamed to 7 before I could do anything.

So I took toledo 1h -4 with the following plan

If it wins, let the FIU side ride.
If it loses, hit Toledo at halftime. I really don't want to lose more than 1.2 units on the game.

I am an admitted mess right now with these games the next few days.

Hard to have a lot of confidence when ...

I bet an under based on UAB inability to pass and they set receiving records
I bet under in SDSU game based on belief Ohio couldn't run on SDSU and they run for more than twice the average allowed by sdsu
I bet USF thinking Marshall offense is terrible and defense is overrated and their offense dominates in every way imaginable (at least I was right about their defense)

So either not seeing it great at the moment or we are gettting some random outliers.

And I am in a contest that is messing with my head. Not really thinking very clearly on the games for some reason so my plan might be awful.

No idea what is going to happen in that game Bull.
 
Thanks, mr retro. I hop I’m home at halftime. Wife wants to be taken out for lunch.
 
Walk-On Independence Bowl (Shreveport)
Temple vs Duke
Selections: Duke 3.5


New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Miami vs Wisconsin (New York)
Selections: Miami -3 largish


Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl (Houston)
Baylor vs Vanderbilt
Selections: Over 55



I am pretty heavily invested in Miami Fl now .. most of it is at -3 so that is what I will use but I have it at some higher numbers too for full disclosure.
 
Someone remind me in a few months that I want to start a thread about how stupid some people are. I don't think it is in my best interest to opine on it today but I think it might be helpful to some of you someday if you are ever involved in poker tournaments or other similarly arranged contests. Suffice it to say, I have witnessed some incredible stupidity today. There is no way to sugar coat it. A large group of people made stupid decisions and i think it would be illustrative to others as an example of what not to do. If you are an experienced poker tournament player, it won't be useful, unless you shouldn't be experienced in poker tournaments, but for a lot of people it will be helpful.

Good luck the rest of the day gents.

sorry Bull .. having a terrible start to my bowl season and have no idea what is going to happen in any of these games .. I am shocked by just about all of them, except the Army game today. I don't find that shocking .. either houston was ready and showed up, in which case they win outright a vast majority of the time, or they are unprepared and not ready and they get blown out, which was gonna happen a good portion of the time.
 
In an odd place. I desperately want a break from football and reading about football and handicapping football but I have some things/responsibilities that are forcing me to stay as engaged as possible. I am emotionally drained from the season I think.

Not sure how I am 9-10 as it feels I have gotten every game wrong.

Some adds ...

I have a few annual bowl losses and it looks like i am being suckered in again. So TCU and Washington State can both find ways to lose for me and all will be right in the world.

The TCU investment is small. The game is an odd one .. I actually made the total higher than the current posted total but have zero interest in the over. Usually when a college total is in the high thirties, I have an under that I pass on because it's college football and it feels like it just doesn't take much to find the over. Here I actually made the game 41 but I just don't want to back either offense really.

Based on my reading, I am getting a different feeling from Leach this year. He seems to be "activated" for this bowl game. Team is going for 11 wins for first time in school history, Leach has been advocating for his club and an expanded playoff, leach off PAC12 coach of the year could view this season as a feather in the cap, team is loose, game is indoors which helps their offense, and they are off the snowstorm loss to Washington. Team has performed well on the road (and ISU fan is going to severely outnumber the washington state fan in this one) and the Washington St offense matches up well with ISU defense which is stout vs the run but vulnerable to the pass. Pretty sure game has been bet down because of how ISU dominated West Virginia's offense and Leach traditionally not giving a crap about the bowl game. Absolute strength of the ISU football team is their rush defense but that is mitigated by the WSU scheme. Line was closer to correct before being bet down. Have a ton of respect for the ISU head coach and the way that team plays football but they seemed to run out of gas late in the year. Team was held under 400 in four of their last five including games against baylor, Kansas, Texas and Drake. I would rate the Washington State defense better than any of those and you are going to have to generate points in this one with the WSU passing game vs that ISU secondary. I like it but Leach bowl history, line movement, ISU head coach, workman like attitude of ISU are all concerns. Just don't think Leach can talk crap about being snubbed due to conference and then not show up here.

Vandy is more or less a backing of the club due to Hurd not playing for Baylor. Integral part of their ability to move the football consistently and make big plays. I am pretty low on the big 12 as a whole and going against them a lot of places. Not sure Vandy should be trusted above this number. Defense has been playing better of late for Baylor but they are wildly inconsistent on that side of the ball and pose class relief for a Vandy team that has played a lot of high quality defensive clubs this year like notre dame, uga, kentucky and florida. I have the over before I realized Hurd was out but if the bears struggle getting first downs it opens the door (dore?) for some short fields for vandy. Sort of feels like a game where the defenses do ok but there are enough big plays to send it over the total.

Cuse -1 - basically just backing syracuse against west virginia due to no grier and missing best olineman. Seems to be a difference in who wants to be there.

Nevada is a guess and bet small. I don't feel I know either team particularly well at this point. Relatively even statistically so I just backed the tougher schedule/better conference here. really not sure what happens but I could say that about my 19 bowl results to date too.


half hearted explanations ... I had a depressing Saturday with football and it has really effected me. Sorry for a crappy bowl thread this year.
 
RetroVK said:
In an odd place. I desperately want a break from football and reading about football and handicapping football but I have some things/responsibilities that are forcing me to stay as engaged as possible. I am emotionally drained from the season I think.

Not sure how I am 9-10 as it feels I have gotten every game wrong.

Some adds ...

I have a few annual bowl losses and it looks like i am being suckered in again. So TCU and Washington State can both find ways to lose for me and all will be right in the world.

The TCU investment is small. The game is an odd one .. I actually made the total higher than the current posted total but have zero interest in the over. Usually when a college total is in the high thirties, I have an under that I pass on because it's college football and it feels like it just doesn't take much to find the over. Here I actually made the game 41 but I just don't want to back either offense really.

Based on my reading, I am getting a different feeling from Leach this year. He seems to be "activated" for this bowl game. Team is going for 11 wins for first time in school history, Leach has been advocating for his club and an expanded playoff, leach off PAC12 coach of the year could view this season as a feather in the cap, team is loose, game is indoors which helps their offense, and they are off the snowstorm loss to Washington. Team has performed well on the road (and ISU fan is going to severely outnumber the washington state fan in this one) and the Washington St offense matches up well with ISU defense which is stout vs the run but vulnerable to the pass. Pretty sure game has been bet down because of how ISU dominated West Virginia's offense and Leach traditionally not giving a crap about the bowl game. Absolute strength of the ISU football team is their rush defense but that is mitigated by the WSU scheme. Line was closer to correct before being bet down. Have a ton of respect for the ISU head coach and the way that team plays football but they seemed to run out of gas late in the year. Team was held under 400 in four of their last five including games against baylor, Kansas, Texas and Drake. I would rate the Washington State defense better than any of those and you are going to have to generate points in this one with the WSU passing game vs that ISU secondary. I like it but Leach bowl history, line movement, ISU head coach, workman like attitude of ISU are all concerns. Just don't think Leach can talk crap about being snubbed due to conference and then not show up here.

Vandy is more or less a backing of the club due to Hurd not playing for Baylor. Integral part of their ability to move the football consistently and make big plays. I am pretty low on the big 12 as a whole and going against them a lot of places. Not sure Vandy should be trusted above this number. Defense has been playing better of late for Baylor but they are wildly inconsistent on that side of the ball and pose class relief for a Vandy team that has played a lot of high quality defensive clubs this year like notre dame, uga, kentucky and florida. I have the over before I realized Hurd was out but if the bears struggle getting first downs it opens the door (dore?) for some short fields for vandy. Sort of feels like a game where the defenses do ok but there are enough big plays to send it over the total.

Cuse -1 - basically just backing syracuse against west virginia due to no grier and missing best olineman. Seems to be a difference in who wants to be there.

Nevada is a guess and bet small. I don't feel I know either team particularly well at this point. Relatively even statistically so I just backed the tougher schedule/better conference here. really not sure what happens but I could say that about my 19 bowl results to date too.


half hearted explanations ... I had a depressing Saturday with football and it has really effected me. Sorry for a crappy bowl thread this year.
Click to expand...
I feel similar forcing myself to bet. I over thought the first slew of games, then this round im going gut and we appear to be opposite on most which probably is good for you haha.

Wish you the best and here is to a good final stretch
 
VK, your bowl thread is amazing! Sure some of your selections may have gone south, but your thread is replete with great information. One of these days I hope I can find the time to do one of my own.

Now, kick ass the rest of the way!
 
Nobody likes gambling when so much time is spent with little to no return. This thread is still the go to for anyone seeking solid capping information. I’m sure I’ve hit this thread 50 times since Bowl season started. Keep doing what you do. It’ll turn around. Think back to week 2 of regular season. You were in the same position. It turned around then, and it will here too. Problem with early bowl games, nobody gives a shit. Outside of a couple, had this been regular season, would you have wagered? I would have laid off 75% of these matchups. But the season is coming to an end and I’ll have withdrawals two weeks after the bowls are done. Better games are coming. Profit is sure to follow. GL VK, and thanks for what you so.
 
Notre Dame vs Clemson

Venue Cotton Bowl (Semifinal Game)

coach: Edge to Dabo and his staff imo. I think Kelly is a good coach (football. I have issues with some other things) but he just hasn't been as solid in these big game spots, and has shown the ability to lay a complete egg in them. Dabo just wins football games, and when he loses, it generally isn't because of a bad effort or bad coaching. I also think he develops better.

Common Opponent Results
Wake Forest : Clemson 63-3 698! 9.97ypp! 249 yards against, 3.37, ND 56-27 566, 7.45 ypp, 398 yards against 4.33
Pittsburgh : Clemson 42-10 419 7.1 ypp (rain), 199 yards against 3.22, ND 19-14 344 4.91 (38 carries 80 yards), 242, 4.03
Syracuse : Clemson 27-23 469 5.72 (Lawrence hurt 1h), 311 yards against 4.64, ND 463 6.26, 324 yards against 3.21
FSU: Clemson 59-10 524 6.81, 247 yards against 3.29, ND 42-13 495 6.6 yards per play, 322 4.13

Of first note .. when comparing these, I am sort of throwing out the Clemson offensive performance vs Syracuse as the QB got hurt. They were lucky to win that but they were also unfortunate to have the injury right after Bryant decides to change schools. Showed a lot of heart and got it done and that part is more important to me when looking at the team as it currently sits. Also of note, Clemson had late garbage yards against Pittsburgh on a wet field. I guess that sort of cancels itself out but take the YPP with a grain of salt. The offensive numbers indicate that Clemson was slightly better against these opponents than was Notre Dame and it also indicated that their defense was a bit better against these opponents as well.

Before I consolidate (and this will include clemson/cuse numbers), I want to point out that there are some factors pointing to validity of the common opponent comparison in this case .. 1. Both teams played wake forest on the road, and both played one opponent at a neutral site. 2. The relative pace of the teams are the same. This is a big factor when comparing both yardage and to a lesser extent ypp (as ypp can be effected by pace). So while matchups are different, which cause varying result, you have some things that point to this being a level of indicator that we should at least glance at.

Clemson averaged 7.3 yards per play against these opponents, 6.3 yards per play against these opponents for Notre Dame.
These opponents averaged 3.6 yards per play against Clemson and Notre Dame 4.1

Clemson is clearly a deserved favorite based on this in a vacuum (and otherwise).

Motivation: Equal. It's a semifinal game.

Injuries/suspensions : Don't know what to make of the drug testing stuff at Clemson but outside of Renfrow being banged up a little and being questionable, they look pretty darn healthy. The same goes for Notre Dame who is extremely healthy as well. Both teams have been fortunate in that department which contributes to why they are here. In any event, injuries do not appear to be a major factor.


Aggregate Analysis

I ran my numbers and I expect a total yardage output of about 440 to 360 in the game. This would not warrant the current line in a vacuum.

Young QB's : I have watched a lot of both of these young men this year. I feel that not only has Lawrence been the more polished player but I feel that Dabo has done a really good job of making sure to advance him. That could be because he has greater confidence in Lawrence than Kelly does Book, or it could mean he has more confidence in his team than Kelly has in his team. While I think Dabo and his staff are better than almost any other at player development, I think there is more upside to the extra practices helping Notre Dame. I think a lot of the Tiger talent, particularly upperclassmen, are already where they need to be and the teams execution is where it needs to be. So a bit of a wash between what the coaches can do vs the potential upside achieved in a month. In any event, I trust Lawrence a lot more than Book, and I would expect Book to be under considerably more pressure than Lawrence with clemson averaging a sack more per game and notre dame giving up a half sack more per game than Clemson. Important when Book has been intercepted at least once in five of his last six games. He will have to make good decisions under pressure to win. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough ... Book has to be BOTH confident and respect the possession (sack strip and INT) for Notre Dame to have success. Tall order.

As mentioned, both teams are paced the same, a little faster than average. Determining the scoring total here is somewhat dependent on how Kelly approaches the game. Does he continue to utilize the ND run game against a Clemson front seven that just stuffs the run, or does he risk passing against a Clemson secondary that while decent, is clearly their defensive weakness. High risk/High reward if Kelly does that. Does he test the waters with the run or come out slinging? If he comes out slinging, the game has a good chance of going over this total. If Kelly tries to manage the game early and see how his defense matches up and get to the fourth quarter tied or down a FG ... then it won't find its way over. I don't have a crystal ball but the South Carolina tape, coupled with the tape of Clemson's run defense is going to make one option pretty tempting for him. I cannot figure that out but what I can figure out is the possibility of an open backdoor. If Clemson is up 17 with 7 minutes to go, I have to think there is a decent chance ND can find the ez late.

When all is said and done .. i have settled on 30-20 Clemson. Say what you want about the Irish, they haven't given up more than 27 all year, clemson team total at current is roughly going to be 34, a full TD above that number (not saying it is unreasonable) but to lose both the under and Notre Dame would most likely result in Clemson finding 38 or 41 pts .. seems a tall order against Notre Dame. Keep in mind that Notre Dame does rate to have slightly more offensive success on Clemson than your average opponent and I think in this particular case, that could lead to less points for Clemson (Because I think it creates an average type football game rather than a scorefest game where scores are to be matched). There is obvious fear of big plays in the game but that is often the case in any game with competent offenses.

Played : Notre Dame 13, Under 55
 
It appears it a bowl game pre-requisite on espn to talk about how competitive Oklahoma will be in the game against Alabama while never mentioning that Notre Dame might be competitive with Clemson. I find that extremely interesting given the percentage of times that espn is wrong. I would be very scared, were I an Oklahoma supporter.
 
Also, and I am not talking about ATS ... but just thought it would be fun to point out ...

SEC gets better overall bowl match ups when the playoff system isn't rigged to get them a second team in the playoff.
 
Add

Missouri/Okst Over 74


I will likely be on Missouri in the game but I want to watch line movement
 
So it looks like Perry from Miami Fl got into some trouble for an online video post or something ... and it sounds like he has been suspended or at least suspended for a half. So Rosier to start it sounds like .. have to hate that with a Miami Florida ticket.
 
RetroVK said:
So it looks like Perry from Miami Fl got into some trouble for an online video post or something ... and it sounds like he has been suspended or at least suspended for a half. So Rosier to start it sounds like .. have to hate that with a Miami Florida ticket.
Click to expand...
Saw and what i simply remind myself is i bet miami floridas defense, not qb hah
 
Mr retro. I have no regrets whatsoever following you. At the 3-dayChristmas break I am down 1.14units in bowls. Some of that is my own doing. Totals often swing away quickly from what you post, and I tend to shy away from games where the total has gone 2.5 against me and wind up picking my own side. Your knowledge and expertise continue to amaze. Your willingness to share is most admirable. Best of luck going forward . I hope your Christmas has been merry, and the 3 day hiatus has helped recharge the batteries.
 
RetroVK said:
Notre Dame vs Clemson

Venue Cotton Bowl (Semifinal Game)

coach: Edge to Dabo and his staff imo. I think Kelly is a good coach (football. I have issues with some other things) but he just hasn't been as solid in these big game spots, and has shown the ability to lay a complete egg in them. Dabo just wins football games, and when he loses, it generally isn't because of a bad effort or bad coaching. I also think he develops better.

Common Opponent Results
Wake Forest : Clemson 63-3 698! 9.97ypp! 249 yards against, 3.37, ND 56-27 566, 7.45 ypp, 398 yards against 4.33
Pittsburgh : Clemson 42-10 419 7.1 ypp (rain), 199 yards against 3.22, ND 19-14 344 4.91 (38 carries 80 yards), 242, 4.03
Syracuse : Clemson 27-23 469 5.72 (Lawrence hurt 1h), 311 yards against 4.64, ND 463 6.26, 324 yards against 3.21
FSU: Clemson 59-10 524 6.81, 247 yards against 3.29, ND 42-13 495 6.6 yards per play, 322 4.13

Of first note .. when comparing these, I am sort of throwing out the Clemson offensive performance vs Syracuse as the QB got hurt. They were lucky to win that but they were also unfortunate to have the injury right after Bryant decides to change schools. Showed a lot of heart and got it done and that part is more important to me when looking at the team as it currently sits. Also of note, Clemson had late garbage yards against Pittsburgh on a wet field. I guess that sort of cancels itself out but take the YPP with a grain of salt. The offensive numbers indicate that Clemson was slightly better against these opponents than was Notre Dame and it also indicated that their defense was a bit better against these opponents as well.

Before I consolidate (and this will include clemson/cuse numbers), I want to point out that there are some factors pointing to validity of the common opponent comparison in this case .. 1. Both teams played wake forest on the road, and both played one opponent at a neutral site. 2. The relative pace of the teams are the same. This is a big factor when comparing both yardage and to a lesser extent ypp (as ypp can be effected by pace). So while matchups are different, which cause varying result, you have some things that point to this being a level of indicator that we should at least glance at.

Clemson averaged 7.3 yards per play against these opponents, 6.3 yards per play against these opponents for Notre Dame.
These opponents averaged 3.6 yards per play against Clemson and Notre Dame 4.1

Clemson is clearly a deserved favorite based on this in a vacuum (and otherwise).

Motivation: Equal. It's a semifinal game.

Injuries/suspensions : Don't know what to make of the drug testing stuff at Clemson but outside of Renfrow being banged up a little and being questionable, they look pretty darn healthy. The same goes for Notre Dame who is extremely healthy as well. Both teams have been fortunate in that department which contributes to why they are here. In any event, injuries do not appear to be a major factor.


Aggregate Analysis

I ran my numbers and I expect a total yardage output of about 440 to 360 in the game. This would not warrant the current line in a vacuum.

Young QB's : I have watched a lot of both of these young men this year. I feel that not only has Lawrence been the more polished player but I feel that Dabo has done a really good job of making sure to advance him. That could be because he has greater confidence in Lawrence than Kelly does Book, or it could mean he has more confidence in his team than Kelly has in his team. While I think Dabo and his staff are better than almost any other at player development, I think there is more upside to the extra practices helping Notre Dame. I think a lot of the Tiger talent, particularly upperclassmen, are already where they need to be and the teams execution is where it needs to be. So a bit of a wash between what the coaches can do vs the potential upside achieved in a month. In any event, I trust Lawrence a lot more than Book, and I would expect Book to be under considerably more pressure than Lawrence with clemson averaging a sack more per game and notre dame giving up a half sack more per game than Clemson. Important when Book has been intercepted at least once in five of his last six games. He will have to make good decisions under pressure to win. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough ... Book has to be BOTH confident and respect the possession (sack strip and INT) for Notre Dame to have success. Tall order.

As mentioned, both teams are paced the same, a little faster than average. Determining the scoring total here is somewhat dependent on how Kelly approaches the game. Does he continue to utilize the ND run game against a Clemson front seven that just stuffs the run, or does he risk passing against a Clemson secondary that while decent, is clearly their defensive weakness. High risk/High reward if Kelly does that. Does he test the waters with the run or come out slinging? If he comes out slinging, the game has a good chance of going over this total. If Kelly tries to manage the game early and see how his defense matches up and get to the fourth quarter tied or down a FG ... then it won't find its way over. I don't have a crystal ball but the South Carolina tape, coupled with the tape of Clemson's run defense is going to make one option pretty tempting for him. I cannot figure that out but what I can figure out is the possibility of an open backdoor. If Clemson is up 17 with 7 minutes to go, I have to think there is a decent chance ND can find the ez late.

When all is said and done .. i have settled on 30-20 Clemson. Say what you want about the Irish, they haven't given up more than 27 all year, clemson team total at current is roughly going to be 34, a full TD above that number (not saying it is unreasonable) but to lose both the under and Notre Dame would most likely result in Clemson finding 38 or 41 pts .. seems a tall order against Notre Dame. Keep in mind that Notre Dame does rate to have slightly more offensive success on Clemson than your average opponent and I think in this particular case, that could lead to less points for Clemson (Because I think it creates an average type football game rather than a scorefest game where scores are to be matched). There is obvious fear of big plays in the game but that is often the case in any game with competent offenses.

Played : Notre Dame 13, Under 55
Click to expand...

Appreciate the thoughts. I think Kelly has to come out slinging because they won't be able to block Clemson in the run game especially. Quick stuff in the passing game. Not sure I'm sold on Book to be able to handle the pressure they will bring. Kind of feels like big plays to me.

I've been against ND a bunch as fraudulent but now I'm wavering.
 
RetroVK said:
Notre Dame vs Clemson

Venue Cotton Bowl (Semifinal Game)

coach: Edge to Dabo and his staff imo. I think Kelly is a good coach (football. I have issues with some other things) but he just hasn't been as solid in these big game spots, and has shown the ability to lay a complete egg in them. Dabo just wins football games, and when he loses, it generally isn't because of a bad effort or bad coaching. I also think he develops better.

Common Opponent Results
Wake Forest : Clemson 63-3 698! 9.97ypp! 249 yards against, 3.37, ND 56-27 566, 7.45 ypp, 398 yards against 4.33
Pittsburgh : Clemson 42-10 419 7.1 ypp (rain), 199 yards against 3.22, ND 19-14 344 4.91 (38 carries 80 yards), 242, 4.03
Syracuse : Clemson 27-23 469 5.72 (Lawrence hurt 1h), 311 yards against 4.64, ND 463 6.26, 324 yards against 3.21
FSU: Clemson 59-10 524 6.81, 247 yards against 3.29, ND 42-13 495 6.6 yards per play, 322 4.13

Of first note .. when comparing these, I am sort of throwing out the Clemson offensive performance vs Syracuse as the QB got hurt. They were lucky to win that but they were also unfortunate to have the injury right after Bryant decides to change schools. Showed a lot of heart and got it done and that part is more important to me when looking at the team as it currently sits. Also of note, Clemson had late garbage yards against Pittsburgh on a wet field. I guess that sort of cancels itself out but take the YPP with a grain of salt. The offensive numbers indicate that Clemson was slightly better against these opponents than was Notre Dame and it also indicated that their defense was a bit better against these opponents as well.

Before I consolidate (and this will include clemson/cuse numbers), I want to point out that there are some factors pointing to validity of the common opponent comparison in this case .. 1. Both teams played wake forest on the road, and both played one opponent at a neutral site. 2. The relative pace of the teams are the same. This is a big factor when comparing both yardage and to a lesser extent ypp (as ypp can be effected by pace). So while matchups are different, which cause varying result, you have some things that point to this being a level of indicator that we should at least glance at.

Clemson averaged 7.3 yards per play against these opponents, 6.3 yards per play against these opponents for Notre Dame.
These opponents averaged 3.6 yards per play against Clemson and Notre Dame 4.1

Clemson is clearly a deserved favorite based on this in a vacuum (and otherwise).

Motivation: Equal. It's a semifinal game.

Injuries/suspensions : Don't know what to make of the drug testing stuff at Clemson but outside of Renfrow being banged up a little and being questionable, they look pretty darn healthy. The same goes for Notre Dame who is extremely healthy as well. Both teams have been fortunate in that department which contributes to why they are here. In any event, injuries do not appear to be a major factor.


Aggregate Analysis

I ran my numbers and I expect a total yardage output of about 440 to 360 in the game. This would not warrant the current line in a vacuum.

Young QB's : I have watched a lot of both of these young men this year. I feel that not only has Lawrence been the more polished player but I feel that Dabo has done a really good job of making sure to advance him. That could be because he has greater confidence in Lawrence than Kelly does Book, or it could mean he has more confidence in his team than Kelly has in his team. While I think Dabo and his staff are better than almost any other at player development, I think there is more upside to the extra practices helping Notre Dame. I think a lot of the Tiger talent, particularly upperclassmen, are already where they need to be and the teams execution is where it needs to be. So a bit of a wash between what the coaches can do vs the potential upside achieved in a month. In any event, I trust Lawrence a lot more than Book, and I would expect Book to be under considerably more pressure than Lawrence with clemson averaging a sack more per game and notre dame giving up a half sack more per game than Clemson. Important when Book has been intercepted at least once in five of his last six games. He will have to make good decisions under pressure to win. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough ... Book has to be BOTH confident and respect the possession (sack strip and INT) for Notre Dame to have success. Tall order.

As mentioned, both teams are paced the same, a little faster than average. Determining the scoring total here is somewhat dependent on how Kelly approaches the game. Does he continue to utilize the ND run game against a Clemson front seven that just stuffs the run, or does he risk passing against a Clemson secondary that while decent, is clearly their defensive weakness. High risk/High reward if Kelly does that. Does he test the waters with the run or come out slinging? If he comes out slinging, the game has a good chance of going over this total. If Kelly tries to manage the game early and see how his defense matches up and get to the fourth quarter tied or down a FG ... then it won't find its way over. I don't have a crystal ball but the South Carolina tape, coupled with the tape of Clemson's run defense is going to make one option pretty tempting for him. I cannot figure that out but what I can figure out is the possibility of an open backdoor. If Clemson is up 17 with 7 minutes to go, I have to think there is a decent chance ND can find the ez late.

When all is said and done .. i have settled on 30-20 Clemson. Say what you want about the Irish, they haven't given up more than 27 all year, clemson team total at current is roughly going to be 34, a full TD above that number (not saying it is unreasonable) but to lose both the under and Notre Dame would most likely result in Clemson finding 38 or 41 pts .. seems a tall order against Notre Dame. Keep in mind that Notre Dame does rate to have slightly more offensive success on Clemson than your average opponent and I think in this particular case, that could lead to less points for Clemson (Because I think it creates an average type football game rather than a scorefest game where scores are to be matched). There is obvious fear of big plays in the game but that is often the case in any game with competent offenses.

Played : Notre Dame 13, Under 55
Click to expand...
I like the under as the best full-game bet. Will probably play Clemson 1H as well but not sure yet.
 
rambler882 said:
Saw and what i simply remind myself is i bet miami floridas defense, not qb hah
Click to expand...

I still like Miami Florida quite a bit. I think they are out their best defensive lineman too.

My real concern, having watched a lot of Hurricanes games this year is that the wide receiver grouping clearly plays harder for Perry. So you get the double whammy of Perry being greater than Rosier, coupled with the receiving group effort. I hope the suspension is for a half and not the full game but it sounds like he didn't receive any practice reps. He is terrible at social media. Backup is a freshman so if Rosier goes down, it could potentially be even worse (how?).
 
Pretty sure Georgia Tech is now in my top five favorite bowl plays since I started doing this. I know the 2006 poinsettia bowl with TCU vs NIU was one of my all time favorites but this is up there.
 
RetroVK said:
Pretty sure Georgia Tech is now in my top five favorite bowl plays since I started doing this. I know the 2006 poinsettia bowl with TCU vs NIU was one of my all time favorites but this is up there.
Click to expand...


Ride or Collide....
 
x
RetroVK said:
I still like Miami Florida quite a bit. I think they are out their best defensive lineman too.

My real concern, having watched a lot of Hurricanes games this year is that the wide receiver grouping clearly plays harder for Perry. So you get the double whammy of Perry being greater than Rosier, coupled with the receiving group effort. I hope the suspension is for a half and not the full game but it sounds like he didn't receive any practice reps. He is terrible at social media. Backup is a freshman so if Rosier goes down, it could potentially be even worse (how?).
Click to expand...

Yes Gerald Willis is out with a finger injury.

After Perry, it would be jarren Williams, who threatened to transfer a week ago, but Richt convinced him to stay.

Tons of negative publicity down here. Lots of call for riicht to fire or reassign his son and hire an OC. Team fell apart like they did in the Golden years. Lots of anonymous reports that players start freelancing when things go wrong.

I think the D rallys around Manny and produces a ferocious effort, but your guess is as good as mine about what happens on offense. Losing Jeff Thomas was a gamechanger in a bad way.

And that perry kid is a real idiot.
 
I am going to opine a little on the Miami vs Wisconsin bowl game a little.

What I am focusing on here is going to be related to two things ... Wisconsin offense vs good rush defenses and then I want to look at the Wisconsin defense vs bad offense in another post to illustrate another point. But for now ..

Miami Florida 25th vs the run

Schedule
Western Kentucky 78th scored 34 on 451
New Mexico 109th scored 45 on 568
BYU 28th scored 21 on 394
Iowa 6th scored 28 415
Nebraska 95th scored 41 on 533
Michigan 16th scored 13 on 283
illinois 122nd scored 49 on 545
NW 32nd 17 on 323
Rutgers 107th scored 31 on 473
Penn State 71st scored 10 on 269
Purdue 65th scored 47 on 545
Minnesota 75th scored 15 on 359

So they played 4 teams in the top 40 in rush defense this year and averaged 354 yards per game and 20.25 pts per game. They scored over 21 only in the Iowa game. And in that game they had 14 pts with a little over a minute to go before scoring a go ahead TD, then getting an interception and then getting a TD run while running out the clock.

Miami Florida rush defense has been solid all year.
Wisconsin 7th

Schedule - yards allowed in game - rush o rank - rush o season avg
LSU 156 58th 175 (19 below average)
Toledo 112 24th 216 (104 below average)
FIU 17 56th 176 (159 below average)
UNC 215 45th 193 (22 above average)
FSU 70 127th 91 (21 below average which isn't easy)
UVA 143 62nd 171 (28 below average)
BC 223 50th 189 (34 above average)
Duke 146 73rd 163 (17 below average)
GT 230 1st 335 (105 below average)
VT 119 63rd 170 (51 below average)
Pitt 69 18th 229 (160 below average)

And in the BC game the QB had a 43 yard run that I won't call a fluke as it is out of their base offense but I don't think Miami has to worry about the QB run here.

Miami will be without a key defender

Hornibrook not playing and I will pay to see Choan do it with his arm against Miami Fl without turning it over.

Biggest concern here would be the following:

Does Miami care and want to play in the cold? (would think so .. revenge)
Taylor breaking a big run (probably gets one somewhere but then what?)
Wisconsin might improve over the extra practices while Miami is clubbing (run stop is attitude)
Miami Florida beard removal

I dunno .. looks pretty good to me for the Hurricanes. Wisconsin with Choan are offensively challenged as it is and if you hold them under their season averages for running the ball, it could put wisconsins very average defense in a tougher spot than normal. The rush offense protects their defense.
 
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