Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
How does Hou slow Army down?
time to post my 2018 bowl thread so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Certainly a huge concern given their rush defense results since Oliver quit playing. But they at least have the advantage of having played vs the option twice this year already (which also skews their rush defense numbers).
With King and Oliver the line is Houston a DD favorite. Of course, they are not there so we have this.
Also, the extra practices don't help Army. they are what they are. Houston has a chance to get more practices in with King's replacement. houston with quite a few athletes on the outside that will be tough for Army to match up against.
Yards per pass attempt allowed against non-option FBS:
Duke 11.6
Liberty 8.3
Hawaii 10.0
OU 11.0
Buffalo 6.3 (That was a game the Bulls NFL WR Johnson was out with injury)
SJSU 7.5
MOH 6.2
EMU 6.9
So ya ... Army will have to play keep away to win and then prevent the backdoor against a team capable in the passing game to cover. it could happen. There seems to be some locker room issues for that Houston team.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
VK - It seems to me that Fresno didn't really get much respect with the bowl invite they received. I saw you played Fresno, but do you think there is anything adverse in terms of motivation for the game vs. ASU, or does a PAC 10 matchup provide the proper impetus for Fresno?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
That is something I will leave to you professionals. If they feel slighted does it mean they don't care because it is Arizona State ?? or does it mean they go out to prove something. Are they disappointed because the venue is one they have traveled to before (las vegas)?? Or do they have the advantage of familiarity?
I read this the other day (well after I made my play so it didn't come into play for me but maybe it will for you) .. was about the linebacker and going to the NFL :
“That’s something I always dreamed about as a kid,” he said. “The opportunity to be there, it’s something that I’m going to look into. But at the moment, I just want to focus on this bowl game, trying to help my brothers and get this 12th win to send the seniors off right.
“That’s a big driver for us. We want to be the first team to go down in Bulldog history with 12 wins. We owe it to our fans. We owe it to ourselves. We owe it to this program. That’s our goal, to go out and get that 12th win.”
So they are at least sounding motivated. Again whether they are or not is up to the professionals to figure out.
And while that potential NFL player is a go .. the ASU WR stud is not.
Seems bueno to me.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am going to try to have a play in every bowl game but I might miss one or two .. or go the teaser route to combine a couple games where I am not as confident in the level of EV.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Great stuff. Thx VK
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Murry better than Watson or cam? At baseball sure.
In my opinion, yes....well maybe not Watson,..how about "as good as some"... but in college (and heck even today) Cam wasn't/isn't a good pocket passer...but I'll give you Watson....either way Kyler has the skill set that has given Nicky fits in the past....I don't think they win, but i hope it's high scoring ....
(Don't get me wrong, I'm a Cam homer, and ENJOYED his year at AU.... just my opinion...War Eagle!)
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not defending sCam’s accuracy but he was a beast that year at auburn!!
Totally agree murry def the type and sooner offense def the system that gives saban fits. That not even debatable..
MNGophs
Pretty much a regular
Hey VK...What are your thoughts on FL. Seems like an overrated SEC team to me. Not impressed with their 2 wins vs. FCS schools.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
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I think florida was under rated down the stretch and some of their performances are a little deceiving. 357 total yards vs mississippi state looks like a bad game on offense when in reality it was 52 more yards than MSU gave up to any other opponent. The 357 yards of offense looks bad against kentucky but then you realize that only TAMU had more yards against UK the first half of the year when the wildcats defense was excelling. I can keep going like that ..... and my eventual point to their offense would be two-fold .. 1. They started scoring late in the year (35 scary, 63 fcs, and 41 FSU. their yards per play were not great in the last two but the four games prior they were 5.79 per play or greater. That doesn't seem great on its face but when you factor in how many top fifty defenses they played, it says something. 2. Which team benefits most from the extra practices? To me this is an easy answer, particularly with what appears to be a lot of "not playing" wolverines.
A win against Ohio State and you are in the playoffs ... what you go to Michigan for is to play and beat Ohio State and win championships, otherwise, no one wants to go live in Michigan (AA isn't bad but this is the reality). In the game that matters most, they laid an egg. Meanwhile they have been bitch slapping florida quite a bit lately. Florida should be motivated and it could be something Mullen can point to as showing the program is improving under his watch. No reason to think Michigan can just line it up and score a ton on Florida even if they are mentally ready. Should be a close game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Quick look at today's action ..
NCAT/Alcorn St under - Both teams prefer to run (particularly alcorn st) and both teams are good at stopping the run. I think we get a running clock that shortens the game. For this reason I played the under and I almost bet Alcorn State for the same reason but as their defense is the less trustworthy, I don't want two bets riding on it showing up and went with under.
Fresno State - I liked them before the WR news .. better all around team, better coach, better QB, better defense and per read articles, appear the more motivated team. Now ASU without their best WR ... I guess they lose outright because it looks like I am stealing money with the Fresno bet.
Utah State minus - Look, it's a horrible spot and situation for Utah State .. skeleton crew preparing for the game and they go from having a coaching edge to a coaching deficit. But they are an older group of kids and if there is no huge effect from the chaos and they are somehow organized, then this line is super short. Might have been a better strategy to watch the first quarter and go from there as I have a feeling this is decisive one way or the other and we should know early whether the USU that would have blown out UNT 5 weeks ago shows up or whether they are just going through the motions.
Tulane Minus - Better run defense ... seems like the key here. I think perhaps the more motivated team too. ULL reserves their good performances for the New Orleans bowl, not this one.
Ga Southern Minus Tiny - Wasn't sure how to handle this. EMU should be the more motivated team after campaigning to get selected but they haven't been good at stopping the Army option and Ga Southern has the better defense. Math says Ga Southern but I have had the "feeling" that EMU wins somehow for over a week. I went ahead and backed the math but very small.
MTSU plus - App State just not the same team offensively since QB injury. Last game for father/son coach/qb battery. App st with a good secondary but have to think Stockstill is better than most QB's they faced. MTSU run stop is decent ... close game ... I think MTSU wins outright.
Best of luck today
NCAT/Alcorn St under - Both teams prefer to run (particularly alcorn st) and both teams are good at stopping the run. I think we get a running clock that shortens the game. For this reason I played the under and I almost bet Alcorn State for the same reason but as their defense is the less trustworthy, I don't want two bets riding on it showing up and went with under.
Fresno State - I liked them before the WR news .. better all around team, better coach, better QB, better defense and per read articles, appear the more motivated team. Now ASU without their best WR ... I guess they lose outright because it looks like I am stealing money with the Fresno bet.
Utah State minus - Look, it's a horrible spot and situation for Utah State .. skeleton crew preparing for the game and they go from having a coaching edge to a coaching deficit. But they are an older group of kids and if there is no huge effect from the chaos and they are somehow organized, then this line is super short. Might have been a better strategy to watch the first quarter and go from there as I have a feeling this is decisive one way or the other and we should know early whether the USU that would have blown out UNT 5 weeks ago shows up or whether they are just going through the motions.
Tulane Minus - Better run defense ... seems like the key here. I think perhaps the more motivated team too. ULL reserves their good performances for the New Orleans bowl, not this one.
Ga Southern Minus Tiny - Wasn't sure how to handle this. EMU should be the more motivated team after campaigning to get selected but they haven't been good at stopping the Army option and Ga Southern has the better defense. Math says Ga Southern but I have had the "feeling" that EMU wins somehow for over a week. I went ahead and backed the math but very small.
MTSU plus - App State just not the same team offensively since QB injury. Last game for father/son coach/qb battery. App st with a good secondary but have to think Stockstill is better than most QB's they faced. MTSU run stop is decent ... close game ... I think MTSU wins outright.
Best of luck today
Get it done bub
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Seems to be a incredibly bad reason to go to Michigan lately! Surely hope they have a different goal or those a lot of bummed out guys every offseason!! Lol. Maybe urban leaving will balance things out (at least a little hopefully, shit at this point it not even a freaking rivalry far as competitiveness!)
Awesome points about gators. Can’t imagine anyone faulting a offense regardless what they get off sip st, getting 350 pretty dang good. for all the Michigan defense talk I don’t think I saw a better defense than bulldogs the 3-4 times I caught their games, osu damn sure wouldn’t hang 60 on them!!
My only counter on Gators is I watched franks look so god awful vs a mizzou defense that several mediocre passing attacks put up numbers on them throughtout year. Has he improved? Tigers sometimes decent rush d easily took that away so I’d think Michigan d will stifle the fla run gm which leaves franks having to throw which scary for me after seeing mizzou game, was it just a freak coincidence he had a pretty decent game vs MSU?
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Paul Johnson’s thoughts on CFP expansion, being on committee
https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/...nsion-being-committee/zWKHWtFk0k7TRP0vDJ6MCK/
https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/...nsion-being-committee/zWKHWtFk0k7TRP0vDJ6MCK/
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Your concern is valid. Franks sucks.
Also, Michigan does have a great defense and that defense was humiliated and disgraced. That could counteract some of the motivational angles for taking Florida.
1. Franks is not standing back there making accurate pass after accurate pass the way Haskins did
2. The Florida offensive line will not hold up for a game the way the Ohio State offensive line did (and I would argue that the Ohio State offensive line had a 1 in 10 performance to the good side, meaning I doubt they could repeat that often).
3. The Florida wide receivers will not get as open and will not separate after the catch the way the Ohio State wr group did
4. They are not going to be able to run to success.
I should probably be adding the under to this game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
He's close.
I don't like that he made the obvious point about it being subjective and then eliminated all but one G5 conference champion to include at large bids. Maybe he is trying to make it more palatable to the "Have's" who control the whole process but seems easier to just take all the conference champions and then figure it out from there.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That where I was thinking. Feel like it not all that much different than that gator/MSU gm far as the scoring went anyway.
MNGophs
Pretty much a regular
Thank you!
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
GL...think this sails too.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The field is a concern or an early niu score
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Damn VK....NIll going to make it ez on UAB if they go for 4th and 1 on their own 35
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
great job here...you are insighful
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Unders are easier when TDs are ruled touchbacks. That half was closer to the game I expected though.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
after the long pass by UAB for TD I quit watching and agreed to watch TV with my wife. Good call on UAB also btw*
*oops, I actually selected UAB
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Good call. They dominated and were clearly the only side that cared. You could watch both coaches and see the difference, let alone the players.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Seems like a correlated parlay game to me...SDSU & under, Cats & Over
As much as I faded them the last half of the year... this one seems correct to me.
Not saying I am playing it, but it seems correct.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
Whos calling the plays for USF? I think Marshall is the more excited team to be playing, and I think their D will be the deciding factor....
Bol sir
Bol sir
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Justin Burke is going to be calling plays for them. I disagree on who will be more motivated but am certainly willing to listen to reasons why as I don't think there is a huge advantage in motivation for the Bulls. It certainly doesn't look like the Marshall fan base is overtly excited as they are having big trouble selling their bowl allotment.
I suppose a lot of this game comes down to how one views the Marshall defense. Are they good or are they average?
Well here is yardage allowed in their fbs games..
MOH 444 96th 372 ypg
NCSU 502 15th 471 ypg
WKY 324 102nd 364 ypg
MTSU 420 72nd 393 ypg
ODU 402 42nd 428 ypg
FAU 359 13th 479 ypg
USM 222 100th 368 ypg
Charlotte 185 116th 343 ypg
UTSA 137 130th 247 ypg
FIU 407 52nd 418 ypg
VT 454 44th 427 ypg
USF 32 444 ypg
It doesn't appear that Marshall is much more than average on defense when they play a semi-competent offense. I do think their run defense is pretty good but they are vulnerable to the pass. Certainly the weather will help them some in this respect along with possibly keeping locals away from attending. Anyway, if I look at the teams in the top half offensively (65th or better) in ypg, they lost to average by 31 and 27 yards to ncsu and VT respectively and they won to average by 26, 120, and 11 yards to ODU, FIU and VT respectively. So nothing special with regard shutting teams down compared to average and the FAU game was one where the owls turned it over 5 times and still out gained Marshall. In fact ... in the games vs teams with an offensive pulse they were outgained by VT, FAU, FIU, NCSU and only outgained Old Dominion (118th in total defense).
USF on a five game losing streak where they haven't played well but where they did play against competition. This game looks to me to be a chance for them to not have a sour taste in their mouth all off season and a game of class relief. There are concerns with play calling continuity and the health of the QB but I am willing to ride with the dog here .. and while not a traditional home game, doesn't this imply a Marshall -9 home game line? There is no way that can be correct.
USF straight up.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
VK - Is there a particular website you use to get this information?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Read it in an article. You can usually find it by google per bowl. For instance kentucky sold out and Cuse sold out just on a quick google.
so the answer is "no", so far as I know ... as far as a particular website...
