Xmas day (line prediction, picks and discussion)
- Thread starter Master P
- Start date
Master P
Pretty much a regular
i have
line prediction:
mia+4@cle
pho@lal+3.5
sea+7@por
picks: cavs, lakers and sonics
random thoughts:
i don't know why but d-wade seems to always be playing well against the cavs, although both cavs and heat seem to be strugling right now well atleast one team will win
public will be on the suns as they think the suns wil cruise to an easy victory, i think kobe shows up for this game and i think the knicks got back in the game against the lakers because the lakers had a lil bit of a look ahead against the suns
call me crazy but i am picking the sonics to win the game against the blazers, i think the nba gives durant a career moment where he drops 30 and end portlands 10game streak although the blazers just could pay the refs and continue enjoying the holidays
line prediction:
mia+4@cle
pho@lal+3.5
sea+7@por
picks: cavs, lakers and sonics
random thoughts:
i don't know why but d-wade seems to always be playing well against the cavs, although both cavs and heat seem to be strugling right now well atleast one team will win
public will be on the suns as they think the suns wil cruise to an easy victory, i think kobe shows up for this game and i think the knicks got back in the game against the lakers because the lakers had a lil bit of a look ahead against the suns
call me crazy but i am picking the sonics to win the game against the blazers, i think the nba gives durant a career moment where he drops 30 and end portlands 10game streak although the blazers just could pay the refs and continue enjoying the holidays
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I think the Blazers gonna go 12 straight, which means I wouldnt play Sea +pts simply because I rarely play a Dog I didnt give a chance to win SU.
Of Por's next 3 opponents, Philly is the best they'll face and, as an Eastern team, benefit from these stats (just as Seattle doesnt benefit)...
I'll leave Por's games alone until that Philly game, and hope the SU streak is alive for it (they've already lost @Philly 88-92).
Of Por's next 3 opponents, Philly is the best they'll face and, as an Eastern team, benefit from these stats (just as Seattle doesnt benefit)...
I'll leave Por's games alone until that Philly game, and hope the SU streak is alive for it (they've already lost @Philly 88-92).
A
abcs
Guest
I was thinking 191 for the heat total.
I disagree the squads have hardly changed. I don't think at the moment PHO is playing anywhere near the level it did last year. Every season there 3 pt shooting gets worse and worse. Nash is dinged up and so is Raja Bell. Losing Kurt Thomas hurt some...they only seem to go about 6 deep now. Diaw has seemingly regressed , Marcus Banks has barely played this season , Brian Skinner...on the flip Kobe is happy and trusting his teammates , they added Derek Fisher , Bynum has grown up , there bench seems to know there roles and is 6 or 7 deep so they have 12 guys who can play...
Toughest of the three to guess IMO. Really what I am working off is the fact that IMO LAL seems to getting stronger lines and PHO seems to be losing some line strength...by stronger I mean laying more points and vice versa. PHO since the last game of the road trip in Minny have looked pretty crappy for them with only the beatdown of a shorthanded , road weary Raps team....LAL has won 8 of 10 with both losses being close and lost the 4th quarters as the deciding factor.
-Recently Suns caught 3 @ Dallas and 2 @ SA. They backdoored the Mavs while sneaking by SA late but that team was w/o Tony Parker.
-In the 1st matchup Odom was out and LAL was +8 and won SU....
Be interesting to see where it comes out...I would be shocked with 3.5 or 4 though....maybe Suns -1.5...but would say my expected range would be Suns -1.5 to LaL -1.5...(thats why PK makes sense to me)
Just my thought process take it for what it's worth........nothing! GL
NickelAndDimer
Pretty much a regular
LVSC opening lines
Cavs -5.5 --- O/U 193 1/2
Suns -3 --- O/U 223 1/2
Blazers -9 --- O/U 196 1/2
Cavs -5.5 --- O/U 193 1/2
Suns -3 --- O/U 223 1/2
Blazers -9 --- O/U 196 1/2
A
abcs
Guest
Are the Cavs home or away? I think with the hughes trade imminent they wont come out that focused.
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Actually we don't disagree
The rosters haven't changed much and what you mentioned was health and form changes and I agree there. That is why I wrote that past years Lakers got +4 up to +6 and tomorrow will be getting +3 or +4 only.
I believe in Lakers, but right now I'm speaking more like a fan, because I thought about this game since the previous one ended and haven't made up my mind yet is it worth a bet and on which side/ Total.
A
abcs
Guest
Divol your estimate was better then mine. It seems they feel LAL has improved by 2 points in the past years. I think the games in Pho were about +10 while as you said the games in LaL were bewteen 4 and 6. Good Luck in your choices...
Random thoughts...Cavs are 2-10 ATS as favs this year. Winning vs Indy in the game LeBron returned which was tricky since he didnt start. Also won and covered @ Minny otherwise 4-6 SU in there 10 ATS losses as chalk this season. Miami seems to play them well even @ Cleveland. Think Miami is playing slightily better past 6,7 games while Lebron is getting little help outside of Z. Looks like heat here...take it to +5...think they are 9-5 away ATS...Earl Barron had 13 last time out and Blount was a DNP..curious his stock has fallen so much in Miami..
Sorry maybe I am blind but I dont see why the game in LAL is suns -2.5. Not trying to be hard headed but makes no sense to me. Unless they feel whether they make it PK , -1.5 or -2.5 they would still get the same amount of action on Pho. Since I am sure all we here about is this revenge angle. I mean we all know Kobe is a cocky Motherfucker and wants to show TEAM PHOENIX that wasnt some lucky game and that this years LAL version is for real. Total is to high....hate taking a team off a road trip but noon sun start should be helpful in some ways....what to do?? does Raja Bell play?? I look at there road wins and dont walk away impressed...in SA barely win and no Tony Parker making them 1-3 SU past 4 away. In Tor w/o Bosh , w/o Bargnani and Ford limited , in Wash w/o Arena , won in NYK and won but didnt cover in Indy..you get the picture.....big edge for Suns just 2nd game since the 19th where its LAL 4th and they traveled in those...want to take LAL and under but we shall see....I have alot more overanalyzing to do
Not sure about Port/Sea but the I think Blazers have been somewhat lucky. They trailed at half in there past 3 games and they were facing some shorthanded squads...Blazers are smoking but I may attempt 1st H play on Seattle.........
BOL all....who knows what I :cheers:will play come tmrw....
Random thoughts...Cavs are 2-10 ATS as favs this year. Winning vs Indy in the game LeBron returned which was tricky since he didnt start. Also won and covered @ Minny otherwise 4-6 SU in there 10 ATS losses as chalk this season. Miami seems to play them well even @ Cleveland. Think Miami is playing slightily better past 6,7 games while Lebron is getting little help outside of Z. Looks like heat here...take it to +5...think they are 9-5 away ATS...Earl Barron had 13 last time out and Blount was a DNP..curious his stock has fallen so much in Miami..
Sorry maybe I am blind but I dont see why the game in LAL is suns -2.5. Not trying to be hard headed but makes no sense to me. Unless they feel whether they make it PK , -1.5 or -2.5 they would still get the same amount of action on Pho. Since I am sure all we here about is this revenge angle. I mean we all know Kobe is a cocky Motherfucker and wants to show TEAM PHOENIX that wasnt some lucky game and that this years LAL version is for real. Total is to high....hate taking a team off a road trip but noon sun start should be helpful in some ways....what to do?? does Raja Bell play?? I look at there road wins and dont walk away impressed...in SA barely win and no Tony Parker making them 1-3 SU past 4 away. In Tor w/o Bosh , w/o Bargnani and Ford limited , in Wash w/o Arena , won in NYK and won but didnt cover in Indy..you get the picture.....big edge for Suns just 2nd game since the 19th where its LAL 4th and they traveled in those...want to take LAL and under but we shall see....I have alot more overanalyzing to do
Not sure about Port/Sea but the I think Blazers have been somewhat lucky. They trailed at half in there past 3 games and they were facing some shorthanded squads...Blazers are smoking but I may attempt 1st H play on Seattle.........
BOL all....who knows what I :cheers:will play come tmrw....
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
I'm not sure why anybody would lay the points with the Cavs today other than the thought that LB will carry this to some huge victory since it's Christmas. Just like you said the Heat have been playing great ball L10 with the WAS game being the only one they never had a chance to win at the end. That game was first off of west coast trip. Taking the points in this game seems like the logical choice as a final posession/game winner seems likely.
really hate the game in LA. Suns have revenge but do they really? How pissed at a team could you be for an early season blowout on your home floor when you knock them out of the playoffs every year. Sure they'll be more motivated than a normal game, but not sure it'll be anymore than the Lakers will be. The entire game pretty much depends on Amare getting in foul trouble or not. Christmas Day on ABC....I'd be surprised to see him in foul trouble myself.
Same idea on the late one. Sonics 1st half would probably be my preference.
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
If anybody's wondering whether LB or Wade will get the calls today it looks like the NBA has decided it'll be Wade. The three referees doing the game today are 34-23 ATS towards the home team on the year.
Officialls in LAL are 35-28 to the home team this year while in POR the officials are 30-34 ATS to the home team.
Officialls in LAL are 35-28 to the home team this year while in POR the officials are 30-34 ATS to the home team.
Hey ETG , Merry Christmas bro. Glad to see my boyz still around. You or anyone can always hit me on PM cause I will be checking my mailbox. Bored with such a limited card felt like I would throw a few things out there.....GL
JPicks :
I agree with ya. Who wants to lay nearly 5 points on Cle? Especially when you see that 2-10 ATS stat as fav this season. Most people on the boards don't seem interested but it shows a 50/50 split on most of our favorite Bullshit percentage indicators sites. So why get wrapped up in the public chatter BS.
One thing that concerns me is the fact that Miami was just a sucker bet in ATL a week ago catching 2...who bet this sucker up to -5 earlier??
The issue with Cle is firmly there play since LeBron returned. They go to NJ as road chalk and lose SU biut didnt play badly , you think next nite bounce back but they lose SU to Philly , home vs a terrible ROAD Milw squad( who really shouldnt be) and they had revenge and needed OT to win , who knew what to expect vs my lowly NYK...they lost every quarter that nite , finally they outlasted LA in the 4th Q and oulled out a victory. Then with GSW on a b2b and Baron and SJ banged up badly they get smoked. Something is missing right now in Cle....
Wade is talking about how much he loves christmas day and the satisfaction of a win on this day. Shaq seems to be showing some life...
I do like the OVER but think I will pass cause I the early starts always concern me especially midweek....
For the late games I have to think I will be playing LAL but real pissed I missed 3 so I could buy it to +3.5......while the total feels high we have witnessed a few LAL games where they scored 230-240 with ease...
Late game hard pressed for me not to at least play SEA 1st H...not sure about the total though....
So Miami +5 -120 , LAL +3 -120 and Sonics +4.5 1st H look like the sides I will play......would say I dont have supreme confidence in any! GL
Happy Holidays , Merry Christmas and enjoy the day , BOL!:cheers:
JPicks :
I agree with ya. Who wants to lay nearly 5 points on Cle? Especially when you see that 2-10 ATS stat as fav this season. Most people on the boards don't seem interested but it shows a 50/50 split on most of our favorite Bullshit percentage indicators sites. So why get wrapped up in the public chatter BS.
One thing that concerns me is the fact that Miami was just a sucker bet in ATL a week ago catching 2...who bet this sucker up to -5 earlier??
The issue with Cle is firmly there play since LeBron returned. They go to NJ as road chalk and lose SU biut didnt play badly , you think next nite bounce back but they lose SU to Philly , home vs a terrible ROAD Milw squad( who really shouldnt be) and they had revenge and needed OT to win , who knew what to expect vs my lowly NYK...they lost every quarter that nite , finally they outlasted LA in the 4th Q and oulled out a victory. Then with GSW on a b2b and Baron and SJ banged up badly they get smoked. Something is missing right now in Cle....
Wade is talking about how much he loves christmas day and the satisfaction of a win on this day. Shaq seems to be showing some life...
I do like the OVER but think I will pass cause I the early starts always concern me especially midweek....
For the late games I have to think I will be playing LAL but real pissed I missed 3 so I could buy it to +3.5......while the total feels high we have witnessed a few LAL games where they scored 230-240 with ease...
Late game hard pressed for me not to at least play SEA 1st H...not sure about the total though....
So Miami +5 -120 , LAL +3 -120 and Sonics +4.5 1st H look like the sides I will play......would say I dont have supreme confidence in any! GL
Happy Holidays , Merry Christmas and enjoy the day , BOL!:cheers:
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Agree completely and the MIL game is the one that really sticks out as a game the Cavs should have rolled. Funny that you mention the Warriors injuries as well as Nelson told Baron not to play and SJax was looking extremely questionable as well. And the Warriors just cruised in that game. I can say that the Heat have been playing as a team recently and putting in solid efforts but they're just not a great team. The same can't be said about the Cavs as they are a better team than the Heat but their is no cohesion with the group. I'll only be playing the over in LA as I can see either team winning a 118-113 game.
GL to you as well and it's GREAT to have you around sharing your thoughts. Even if you're not confident in them.
GL to you as well and it's GREAT to have you around sharing your thoughts. Even if you're not confident in them.
Thanks J. My confidence is more about decision making on what to play and what to pass on. We both agree no reason to play Cle here that you could foresee and marginal value in Miami......
Already the Heat look lost and indecisive on the court.......Not something I want to see when my team basically needs to win SU to cash..
GL rest of the day....
Already the Heat look lost and indecisive on the court.......Not something I want to see when my team basically needs to win SU to cash..
GL rest of the day....
Basketball always seems to be a constant worry till the quarter ends. Seattle battled back after a Port min-run and my Sonics 1st H +4 cashed! To bad I didnt think about Miami 1st H earlier could have been 3-0. Oh well the last thing is Sonics ML small......
Total went off at 200 I believe what was the 1st H #?
Total went off at 200 I believe what was the 1st H #?
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