Week 8 Discussion Thread

Yep. Jumped on Hou and SD right away.

Three straight unders for New England. Looks like Bill figured out the defense. I’ll take 7 pts in what should be a close game.
 
Considering this is the 4th time I've heard this rumor so far this year, each time regarding a different team, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that its BS.
Yeah, that rumor happened after the london Saints game too.
 
Miami has the better defense by a mile, seems nobody has realized it yet. Just really hate the spot coming from behind last week now otr. Ravens getting dominated @ Minny and the defense getting heat for their inability to stop the run.... won't get any easier vs Ajayi but I do think there is a possibility they put together a solid defensive effort. Initial obvious lean to the under but then you start to look and see despite scoring 1 offensive td in 2 quarters the Ravens have gone over the total last 2 weeks. Tucker has been steady after a rocky start and Parkey hasn't missed a kick all season. As stated Moore could be an upgrade over Cutler but I would be surprised to see Devante play. Ajayi and Landry both dinged up but who really knows how much....
 
NFL BETTING TRENDS

When They Zig, You Zag

It’s Wednesday, when NFL lines have generally settled like cement and the week’s most obvious trends start to take shape. Trend No. 1, not just this week, but every week, is fade the public. It’s not as core a concept as, say, breathing, but it is vital to life as a bettor. As mybookmaker buddy and podcast partner Scooch is constantly reminding listeners, people bet on perception, and looks can be deceiving. John Ewing makes the case on BetLabs for three dogs this week: The Colts (plus-10.5 against the Bengals), the Panthers (plus-2.5 against the Bucs) and the Niners (plus-13 against the Eagles). My favorite stat: Since 2003, double-digit dogs coming off of a double-digit loss are 106-83-4 ATS (56.1%). The Colts and Niners both fill that bucket.
 
Current leans for the week:

Dolphins +3/3.5
Jets +4.5
Raiders +2.5
Chargers +7.5
Texans +5.5
Cowboys -2
Lions +3
Chiefs -7/7.5
 
I don't think "spots" are as important in NFL as college but to me this doesn't seem like a great spot for Philly. Sandwich game of three home games, big division win on MNF now playing the 9ers with Denver on deck. Not an easy one to back the dog with. I'd love to see a 14 but doubt it gets there. If it does it will be on Bovada.
 
Dont’a Hightower done for the year. Only good LB the Patriots have. Now it’s Elandon Roberts (trash), Kyle Van Noy (Trash), and potentially an old, very slow David Harris (also Trash). Chargers should have no problem moving the ball.
 
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Dont’a Hightower done for the year. Only good LB the Patriots have. Now it’s Elandon Roberts (trash), Kyle Van Noy (Trash), and potentially an old, very slow David Harris (also Trash). Chargers should have no problem moving the ball.
This has to be the worst thing possible to happen to that defense
 
KJ - exactly. He is the one guy on that defense I don’t think they can function without, maybe McCourtey too. But now Pats get Gilmore back who can’t seem to figure out what playing Zone means and leaves 1/3 of the field wide open. I do think Gilmore figures it out because the talent is there to be a solid secondary, but time will tell. Now once they look decent for one game, they lose their best player on D. Not too optimistic about this one.
 
This is Cam Newton's 7th year playing in the NFL. Why can't he handle losing yet? Grow the fuck up.
 
Trusty, reliability, delivery...that's what we want out of women. And starting QBs. I've always gotten that out of one Joe Flacco when shit's hitting the fan. He's under fire, under duress, under scrutiny...and I can't think of another QB in that situation (you can throw em all in there) that I want other than this guy. Not like I'm a huge fan of his, but this fuckin guy delivers when the heat's in the kitchen. Sign me up...
 
Yep. Jumped on Hou and SD right away.

Three straight unders for New England. Looks like Bill figured out the defense. I’ll take 7 pts in what should be a close game.

They obviously playing better than the 1st month, not sure id go as far as to say they have it figured out just yet. Still think there plenty of holes, I didn't catch much of last weeks atl game (been meaning to check out the condensed replay version) but prior to that appears they been playing a lot more zone.

The thu night game in Tampa Jamis left a lot of plays on the field simply missing guys, the d def tightened up when bucs got into scoring range that night as they forced Tampa to attempt a lot of fgs.

Early in the jets game mccown was slicing and dicing them, then of course we all know how pats "held" them from putting up one more td! McCown threw for 350+ in that one but the d was solid in 2nd and 3rd qrtrs allowing the offense time to get back into game then take lead.

As I said didn't see much of last week, used to be holding falcons to 1 garbage time td was incredibly impressive, not real sure how much that says these days as stark was clearly a horrible choice to replace shanny as OC as doesn't make much sense how bad falcons have been, we all expected some regression but who woulda thought it be this bad??

I'm with you on chargers (not only liking them as a play but still referring to them as SAN DIEGO as well! lol)., last 2 seasons I almost always play chargers when they catching more than a fg, their games almost always come down to 1 possession. Even played them last week as small favs, since preseason I been high on this squad and as I mentioned last week they finally figuring out how to win those close games opposed to blowing them. Imo they a very talented roster. Not thrilled w the offense under the new coaching staff but they have them playing excellent defense. Think those pass rushers will get to Brady quite a bit.. def see it as a one possession game and wouldn't be shocked if chargers continued their win streak.
 
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I don't think "spots" are as important in NFL as college but to me this doesn't seem like a great spot for Philly. Sandwich game of three home games, big division win on MNF now playing the 9ers with Denver on deck. Not an easy one to back the dog with. I'd love to see a 14 but doubt it gets there. If it does it will be on Bovada.

Seems like nfl did sf no favors scheduling wise this season. Their last month been at zona, at Indy, return east at Washington, home for 1 then back east again? Feels bit unfair,
 
I'm with you on chargers (not only liking them as a play but still referring to them as SAN DIEGO as well! lol)..[/QUOTE]

Ha! Brain fart. Happens more the older I get. I can’t get used to LA Chargers...... just sounds awkward to me.
 
It annoys me so much that I never abbreviate them, pretty much every team I go back and forth between city abv. and team name. With chargers I always use team name now cause every time I go to city I put sd, lol. Let's face it stupid move by NFL and embarrassing they playing in a soccer stadium they can't even fill.
 
Interesting line movement the past 24-36 hours or so. Texans were getting +5.5, but now you can get them at +7 with a little juice. Jets were getting +4.5, but now I'm seeing +6. Not sure what to make of this.
 
I think the Houston line may be due to this news...per rotoworld

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports DeAndre Hopkins did not attend Texans practice Friday due to owner Bob McNair's recent insensitive remarks regarding players.
It was previously reported the entire Texans team considered walking out. Hopkins, one of the leaders on the team, did indeed walk out, and the Texans told the media it was due to a "personal day." On Friday, coach Bill O'Brien said he "stands with our players." LT Duane Brown told reporters that McNair's comments referring to players as "inmates" in a "prison" "sickened me" and admitted he is "very upset." "I think the comments were disrespectful and ignorant," added Brown. It's unclear if the situation will affect Sunday's game. The Texans travel to Seattle this week.
 
I thought I saw something regarding Hopkins earlier today, but now just realizing the severity. This is interesting to say the least.
 
Yeah I haven't even heard of the owners comments but it must have been pretty tone deaf if multiple players are this upset about it. Not a good situation.

I am already on them for 1.5 units so I'm hoping they can channel the anger into their play
 
Yeah I haven't even heard of the owners comments but it must have been pretty tone deaf if multiple players are this upset about it. Not a good situation.

I am already on them for 1.5 units so I'm hoping they can channel the anger into their play

I hope this all works in your favor, Hulu. I too was looking at the Texans.
 
I think the Texans/Hawks over is the best wager in that matchup. Yes the Hawks have the #1 scoring d only 5 passing tds allowed but NYG Colts Niners will give you that. Anyone watching the games knows the defense is NOT what it was. This is the first really good offense the Hawks have faced since week 1. Watson may struggle a bit, wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him turn the ball over, throw a pick 6 etc but I do think they get theirs. They are due for a down offensive game with 4 straight over 30ppg, and maybe it comes here. Just don't see a low scoring game- Hawks passing game starting to come together and most teams with a pulse on offense have done well vs the Texans... the more I think about it the more I think Houston loses but could see either team winning and both getting over 20.
 
I think the Texans/Hawks over is the best wager in that matchup. Yes the Hawks have the #1 scoring d only 5 passing tds allowed but NYG Colts Niners will give you that. Anyone watching the games knows the defense is NOT what it was. This is the first really good offense the Hawks have faced since week 1. Watson may struggle a bit, wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him turn the ball over, throw a pick 6 etc but I do think they get theirs. They are due for a down offensive game with 4 straight over 30ppg, and maybe it comes here. Just don't see a low scoring game- Hawks passing game starting to come together and most teams with a pulse on offense have done well vs the Texans... the more I think about it the more I think Houston loses but could see either team winning and both getting over 20.
Great take on Seattle...

I still have them very overrated and that may take till the playoffs to show with their schedule but spot-on.
 
It's also rainy here in buffalo. I almost want it to turn into an ugly game- favors the home team. Thoughts in my thread on the Bills but I really think they are begging for over action
 
I'm not buying the total drops on any of these east coast games, wind only thing that I believe truely hurts scoring. I been waiting all week hoping they come down, give me the overs in philly and Washington.

Only reason not buffalo cause I'm little skittish about Carr at certain temps and think it very close to the numbers where he struggles. If it was above 40 degrees I'd say they still scoring points in that one.
 
Me no like. Oh well, he was right about the Eagles over the Skins - so maybe he'll get this one right as well :)))

That even worse he has got 1 right recently! I was trying to tell myself even he gets them right occasionally! Now that theory out the window!! Lol
 
I was going to bet the Texans until it became obvious their attention was on something other than the game.

Brown is a pussy.
Mac ruined the cliche anyway. Isn't it "the inmates are running the asylum"?
My in-laws are of an age where cliches flow from their mouths about every other sentence.
I despise cliches, but I own guns and don't hunt. If one of them said "that dog don't hunt", I wouldn't jump up and ask if they were calling me a dog.

http://www.chron.com/sports/texans/...red-walkout-over-owner-s-inmates-12312200.php
 
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