Week 6 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
1st run through
SMU wed
Houston
Purdue
Buff
Ga South
Mid TN
UNC
UTEP
Wazzou
Looks like a few others too.
SMU wed
Houston
Purdue
Buff
Ga South
Mid TN
UNC
UTEP
Wazzou
Looks like a few others too.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Screw it, I just did it now (20+ pt dogs winning straight up):
Charlotte at Georgia State
Eastern Michigan at Arizona State
Georgia Southern at Nebraska
Georgia Tech at Pitt
Marshall at Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee State at Miami Fl
UConn vs Fresno
Seems like quite a few, I would guess maybe it happens 4 times a year typically?
Charlotte at Georgia State
Eastern Michigan at Arizona State
Georgia Southern at Nebraska
Georgia Tech at Pitt
Marshall at Notre Dame
Middle Tennessee State at Miami Fl
UConn vs Fresno
Seems like quite a few, I would guess maybe it happens 4 times a year typically?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Welcome to the world of the transfer portal and NIL
Predicting is much more relevant than previous data which was always in the past anyway
Using prior stats is really not relevant now
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Marshall had a transfer QB and a transfer RB. But, without transfer portal maybe Wells is still there...so that QB transfer equation might wash. Their starting RB for the ND game was a transfer, and he had a big game, but he wasn't even their #1 RB. Their #1 RB was out vs ND which elevated the transfer RB. So maybe if their #1 was to go, they have a similar rushing performance on that specific day? Can kind of go back and piece things together a lot of different ways. All we do know is what happened, happened.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
You see x and o
I see it differently, attitude etc
Not that either is correct, but as a situational capper it's really difficult now
carolinablue
College Football Guru
NW
Ball State
MTSU
NIU
Heels (of course)
USU
Ball State
MTSU
NIU
Heels (of course)
USU
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
The Georgia Tech upset is a bigger surprise to me than any of them. They did it the same week they fired their coach. I don't recall seeing a bigger improvement when a coach is fired in mid-season and another guy takes over. Maybe it's the college football version of the old military rule, "never invade a country when they are going through a revolution."
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TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
This according to Caesars, which must be--now that they bought William Hill and MGM--the largest sports book operation in the country.
Most "sharp money" this week in the NFL was on Tampa Bay. Lost. Third week of four the sharps lost
Most "sharp money" in college football: N Mexico State. Lost. Fourth straight week the sharps lost.
Four college teams that had the most money bet on them (no word if it was sharp money or not): Georgia, Minnesota, Penn State, Baylor. All failed to cover, three lost SU
Most "sharp money" this week in the NFL was on Tampa Bay. Lost. Third week of four the sharps lost
Most "sharp money" in college football: N Mexico State. Lost. Fourth straight week the sharps lost.
Four college teams that had the most money bet on them (no word if it was sharp money or not): Georgia, Minnesota, Penn State, Baylor. All failed to cover, three lost SU
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Their 2022 Is only showing 9/22 to current. So it's only showing the recent ones while excluding the earlier ones.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm in my phone and I hate looking on my phone. The 2021 detail I only see a narrow time of games 11/12 til December
But they have the records on the main page. So they have 6 in 2022. The 7th I count must've been a 19/19.5 pt line for them. 14 in 2021 and 5 in 2020, etc. I'll have to look at them later. Thanks
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Fresno State @ Boise St. - compiled my data and the shortest line this week looks like Boise St. opening as a -5.5 fav over Fresno. Looking into it further, Andy Avalos is 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in games after playing San Diego St. Additionally, he is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS coming off home games in which his team won ATS. The lone win was last season vs. a hapless New Mexico that finished the season 3-9. Meanwhile Jeff Tedford's team is coming off possibly the worst performance ever by one of his teams and that loss to UConn. Jeff Tedford's teams are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in games coming off an away loss to a team that was winless (Yes I know UConn won vs. CCSU but SDQL does not count FCS games.) That lone loss was vs. Minnesota in 2019 and that Minnesota team went on to a fantastic season that culminated in a bowl win vs. Auburn. Minny was good that year. Fresno took that Minny team into overtime eventually losing by the FG and pushing on the spread. Considering the fact there's a good possibility we see Fresno State bounce back and play their best, Boise still is breaking in a new QB, and Boise most likely will lay an egg this weekend, and Jeff Tedford is 3-1 ATS vs. Boise St., my first pick this week is Fresno St. ML
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JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Akron @ Ohio - another short line. Small sample sizes from my coaches queries but here it goes. Joe Moorhead is 4-1 ATS coming off a home loss and Tim Albin is 0-2 ATS in home games off an road loss and his last one was a tough one. Kent State scored with a 1:44 to play to tie it and then won in OT. This one def has Zips 1st half ML written all over it for me but I might go FG here as well. Normally I don't like going ML on teams coming off a loss but few things come to mind...1) how this loss happened could cause Ohio to turn this loss into 2 losses, 2) Akron ranks 10 spots higher in Sagarin's ratings than Fordham who darn near pulled off the upset at Ohio a couple weeks back. Maybe that 10 spots is good enough for Akron to make the play or two needed to win this game? and finally 3) Akron is winless in FBS so far this season...they most certainly eyeing their 1st FBS win here. Pick: Akron 1st Half ML & FG ML
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JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
line is the shortest on the board out of all the road games IMHO....my take on it is if linesmakers don't care about the injury then neither will I.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Tennessee @ LSU - this one will go down as the public fade of the week. Currently I see the Vols as public favs at a couple of websites. Brian Kelly has not been a home dog often coming back home off a road win but here he is....only the 2nd time this has happened in his career and he is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those instances. Josh Heupel is 1-2 ATS as a road fav coming off of a bye week...the lone win ATS was against my Cats last season and that is a heated rivalry. The Vols and Tigers have played only 5 times since 2006 so this is hardly what one might consider a heated rivalry. Lastly, LSU ranks 13th in Sagarin's Ratings and Tennessee 14th. Tennessee was taken into overtime in its last road game which was at Pittsburg who is currently ranked 51st! There is a lot of value in backing LSU this weekend IMHO and I think this has the makings of a DD win for the Tigers. Death Valley is going to be lit! Pick: LSU ML
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JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Wisconsin @ Northwestern - Pat Fitzgerald's NW teams are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. the Badgers the past 5 times they've played them at home. The lone loss came in 2017 vs. a good Badger team that ended up with an 11-win season. Also a really oddball trend is Pat Fitzgerald's teams are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in games after playing Penn St. NW should find it a little easier to score vs. the Badger defense than the Penn State defense...how much so I don't know but they are at home against an opponent they have won against previously and seem to get fired up and play well after losing to Penn State.....go figure. Not sure how this coaching situation is going to play out in Madison but the previous guy had no clue how to beat NW so can we expect his replacement to have a clue? Furthermore, NW has to go on the road again each of the next two weeks after this game so they should be going all out to win this one at home. NW has had some bad losses at home already this season not sure if I really want to back them. What do you guys think?
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JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Oregon @ Arizona - methinks we might have a live home dog in the Wildcats this Saturday night. First off, we all know Bo Nix is not all that good on the road. Oregon got hammered by Georgia and they pulled out a win at Wazzou barely...took a pick 6 late to help seal that win but they did not cover the -6.5 spread. Speaking of turnover margin, Arizona has a better one than Wazzou therefore Zona might not give up the critical turnover like how Wazzou did. Dan Lanning is 0-2 ATS away from home. Jedd Fisch is 1-0 ATS in games after playing Colorado and the one instance just happened to be at Oregon last year and they covered the spread by more than a TD. He is also 5-2 ATS as a home dog...winning 2-0 SU in games lined less than 10pts...is this game all that far off from a 10pt line? There's some argument that can be made for a Arizona Wildcat win come Saturday night.
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
It only shows the most recent 40 results. If you want see earlier results, break it up by weeks: "line >= 20 and season = 2022 and week = 0" et cetera.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
The six dogs that won as +20 or more:
| Date | Link | Day | Week | Season | Team | Opp | Site | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | Line | Total | SUm | ATSm | OUm | DPS | DPA | SUr | ATSr | OUr | ot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2022 | box | Saturday | 2 | 2022 | NOTD | MRSH | home | 0-0 | 7-9 | 0-3 | 14-14 | 21-26 | -20.5 | 48.0 | -5 | -25.5 | -1.0 | -13.2 | 12.2 | L | L | U | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2022 | box | Saturday | 2 | 2022 | NEB | GSOU | home | 7-14 | 21-14 | 7-7 | 7-10 | 42-45 | -23.5 | 64.0 | -3 | -26.5 | 23.0 | -1.8 | 24.8 | L | L | O | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2022 | box | Saturday | 3 | 2022 | AZST | EMCH | home | 0-10 | 14-14 | 0-3 | 7-3 | 21-30 | -20.5 | 56.5 | -9 | -29.5 | -5.5 | -17.5 | 12.0 | L | L | U | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2022 | box | Saturday | 4 | 2022 | MIAF | MTEN | home | 3-17 | 7-7 | 7-7 | 14-14 | 31-45 | -25.5 | 53.5 | -14 | -39.5 | 22.5 | -8.5 | 31.0 | L | L | O | 0 |
| Oct 01, 2022 | box | Saturday | 5 | 2022 | FRES | CON | away | 0-3 | 7-3 | 7-6 | 0-7 | 14-19 | -23.5 | 51.0 | -5 | -28.5 | -18.0 | -23.2 | 5.2 | L | L | U | 0 |
| Oct 01, 2022 | box | Saturday | 5 | 2022 | PIT | GTCH | home | 0-3 | 7-3 | 0-3 | 14-17 | 21-26 | -21.5 | 47.0 | -5 | -26.5 | 0.0 | -13.2 | 13.2 | L | L | P | 0 |
In the next game, the teams that lost as -20 or more are 0-3 ATS this year by an average of -11.67. Longer-term fading the losers is \more of a 55% proposition.
| p:line <= -20 and season = 2022 and p:L | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Trivia question: Which team has lost the most times as a 20+ favorite since 1989? Bonus: Which team is second? Hint: One coach is closely connected to both programs.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
i'll probably be on the public side, but isn't this an early game? death valley is a much tougher environment at night.Tennessee @ LSU - this one will go down as the public fade of the week. Currently I see the Vols as public favs at a couple of websites. Brian Kelly has not been a home dog often coming back home off a road win but here he is....only the 2nd time this has happened in his career and he is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those instances. Josh Heupel is 1-2 ATS as a road fav coming off of a bye week...the lone win ATS was against my Cats last season and that is a heated rivalry. The Vols and Tigers have played only 5 times since 2006 so this is hardly what one might consider a heated rivalry. Lastly, LSU ranks 13th in Sagarin's Ratings and Tennessee 14th. Tennessee was taken into overtime in its last road game which was at Pittsburg who is currently ranked 51st! There is a lot of value in backing LSU this weekend IMHO and I think this has the makings of a DD win for the Tigers. Death Valley is going to be lit! Pick: LSU ML
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
Oregon @ Arizona - methinks we might have a live home dog in the Wildcats this Saturday night. First off, we all know Bo Nix is not all that good on the road. Oregon got hammered by Georgia and they pulled out a win at Wazzou barely...took a pick 6 late to help seal that win but they did not cover the -6.5 spread. Speaking of turnover margin, Arizona has a better one than Wazzou therefore Zona might not give up the critical turnover like how Wazzou did. Dan Lanning is 0-2 ATS away from home. Jedd Fisch is 1-0 ATS in games after playing Colorado and the one instance just happened to be at Oregon last year and they covered the spread by more than a TD. He is also 5-2 ATS as a home dog...winning 2-0 SU in games lined less than 10pts...is this game all that far off from a 10pt line? There's some argument that can be made for a Arizona Wildcat win come Saturday night.
we'll have to hold our nose, but an excellent case can be made for Arizona, ASU, and even Stanford this week. none of those 3 pac-12 road favs have had any success at these three schools. wait, and let the lines climb if interested in any of them. won't be easy, but any team can have a let down...and being on the road, at places they've historically struggled, only helps.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm not reading tea leaves or on message boards, but I tend to think this coaching move is going to go over like a thud in the locker room. I am very sure they like Leonhard, but he wasn't the head coach, the head coach sets the tone and the message and generally speaking he wins, great in the post season and all of a sudden, poof, he gone.
NW outgained Duke, lost, outgained SIU, lost, outgained Mia O, lost. I am not encouraged at all by the lack of competent offense last week at PSU, but I am encouraged by how hard this D plays. NW D can do it...I hope the O can do it, not sure, it's the weakest FBS/P5 O Wisconsin has played so they will not and should not feel stressed in the least. What is the Under?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Thing about Stanford is they move the ball and rack up yards on everyone. Two problems...awful OL, when they aren't getting sacked they can gain yard, but they get sacked a lot. Problem two, Cardinal is the second worst D in the PAC. Hard to believe as it is, they are terrible D.
Oregon State is in a tough spot here though. Take USC to the absolute wire and lose a close one at home, then regroup, and play a "good enough" game in SLC, but turnovers kill you and lose big to Utah despite outgaining them. This is the next game and as teams can do, this can be a tough spot to once again, dig down and bring that A game. I like Oregon State, but they are definitely vulnerable this week. Throw in the fact that their QB was knocked out last week and they didn't go with the experienced backup, but instead went with an inexperienced young QB, not sure who goes this week.
On the downside, Stanford has lost like 10 straight FBS games or something like 9 straight PAC games in a row. Rough times on the farm.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Oregon @ Arizona - methinks we might have a live home dog in the Wildcats this Saturday night. First off, we all know Bo Nix is not all that good on the road. Oregon got hammered by Georgia and they pulled out a win at Wazzou barely...took a pick 6 late to help seal that win but they did not cover the -6.5 spread. Speaking of turnover margin, Arizona has a better one than Wazzou therefore Zona might not give up the critical turnover like how Wazzou did. Dan Lanning is 0-2 ATS away from home. Jedd Fisch is 1-0 ATS in games after playing Colorado and the one instance just happened to be at Oregon last year and they covered the spread by more than a TD. He is also 5-2 ATS as a home dog...winning 2-0 SU in games lined less than 10pts...is this game all that far off from a 10pt line? There's some argument that can be made for a Arizona Wildcat win come Saturday night.
Feels like a bit of a reach, but I'm not going to rule it out. I think chances are Arizona O makes more critical mistakes than Oregon. Did you see De Laura's TD-INT ratio in the losses? Wazzou does have a turnover problem, but so does Arizona and is every bit as likely to turn it over as Wazzou might be.
I do like the home dog ATS angle for Fisch.
I'll say Oregon should win, but Arizona could cover. Oregon got hammered by Georgia...but that feels like a lifetime ago and if Oregon played Georgia again...if Utah played Florida again...these teams in week 1, both of them, almost all of them, improve so much. Oregon would compete substantially better as would Utah. It's hard to draw lines from a week 1 Georgia loss to support Arizona here. Only way Arizona wins is if Oregon helps them, which they could, bu that is about the only way. Nix has a 12-1 ratio since week 1 and check his ypc, 8.16, good enough for 9th nationally - 1 spot behind Cam Rising incidentally.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I've never used these things, I'm a guy that has all kinds of papers and books around me at all times that I use. I suppose somebody could sort it different to show all the weeks. 2019 shows 15 upsets, but the detail on the specific 2019 link lists zero of them, so I don't know who they were.
You ask quite the trivia question. I can think of several big upsets that Nebraska lost through the years with various coaches. I think the 1996 loss at Arizona State was a 19 pt line. But some of the games, big losses to CU, TT, ISU, lots of teams through the years, that would be my best guess. If there is a coaching connection, then I think I am wrong on my guess.
Notre Dame might be the other? They lost big games vs Syracuse and Navy and then this year, but not sure I can think of many more.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
What happened to Bonner. That guy has been a top QB for years and hit a new peak by the end of last year. Now he can't do anything
What happened to Utah State for that matter? Anderson was great, then came out to Utah State and they won the conference his first year and now they have turned into a second rate team. By all logic they should be better in Anderson's second year and Bonner should be even better than he was last year
I haven't heard any explanation. What happened to derail the season?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
A lot of small lines this week, which you know is not what I go after.
Army is a big one. Wake off two really big and tough games, actually 3 if we add in the near loss to Liberty. Army had bye then the surprising home loss to Georgia State. The two DD losses vs Sun Belt is a red flag for Army however and the D looks like a big liability again and we remember this game last year. I don't know, probably I don't play this.
App State at Texas State? Texas St disappointed last week. App State has been upset twice at home this year, big road fav role here. Texas State's staff and team was 3-0 ATS as home dog last year including cover vs Baylor (9 pt loss, was kind of lucky). They are 6-1-1 ATS as home dog the last two years. App State is 3-5-1 ATS last 2 years away fav including losing straight up 3x, but those 3 were small lines vs good teams, not a big line vs a bad team.
I don't know, I don't think I see a big target this week. Arkansas State has played some good ball this year, they are DD home dog. ULM, maybe. Texas Tech?
Army is a big one. Wake off two really big and tough games, actually 3 if we add in the near loss to Liberty. Army had bye then the surprising home loss to Georgia State. The two DD losses vs Sun Belt is a red flag for Army however and the D looks like a big liability again and we remember this game last year. I don't know, probably I don't play this.
App State at Texas State? Texas St disappointed last week. App State has been upset twice at home this year, big road fav role here. Texas State's staff and team was 3-0 ATS as home dog last year including cover vs Baylor (9 pt loss, was kind of lucky). They are 6-1-1 ATS as home dog the last two years. App State is 3-5-1 ATS last 2 years away fav including losing straight up 3x, but those 3 were small lines vs good teams, not a big line vs a bad team.
I don't know, I don't think I see a big target this week. Arkansas State has played some good ball this year, they are DD home dog. ULM, maybe. Texas Tech?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Lost top 3 receivers who caught 206 balls, especially losing Tompkins who was an alpha and always there ready and waiting for whatever Bonner would throw his way.
I think they actually had an underrated roster entering last year and kind of caught lightning in a bottle. This year the roster is down and everyone is up for them. UNLV and BYU games show they aren't throwing in the towel, they just make lots of mistakes.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Search for the following:
season = 2019 and W and line > 19.5
That will show you the 15 upsets by 20+ dogs in 2019, only six of which were by FBS teams.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
David Shaw's Stanford teams are 10-1 SU vs. Oregon State....In the first 10 games Stanford was favored and won SU. The lone loss was last year as a +12.5 dog and he also lost ATS in that game by a score of 14-35....beginning of a new trend downward perhaps?
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CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
About 5 mins ruined Stanford last Sat. 10-3 with 5 mins to go in the 1h and boom it's 31-3 at half.
I want to bet Zona here but they struggle stopping the run.
This week is rough for me to find DD dogs I feel can win. Would love to fade Clemson but can BC pull off two shockers in a row?
I want to bet Zona here but they struggle stopping the run.
This week is rough for me to find DD dogs I feel can win. Would love to fade Clemson but can BC pull off two shockers in a row?
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
X 2....Lines have tightened up bigtime and it's slim pickens this week IMHO.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
I think Army might be the best DD dog...and they're not a great one but I think they have the best shot. Wake Forest has played a couple tough opponents in a row and Jeff Monken's team is going to bounce back and be at their best coming off that home loss to Georgia State last weekend.
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JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Ball State @ Central Michigan - a really odd instance of my data has occurred...last week Wisconsin opened as an 8.5pt fav over Illinois. They also were ranked 22 spots ahead of the Illini in Jeff Sagarin's rankings. This week, Central Michigan has opened as an 8.5pt fav over Ball State and they are also ranked 22 spots ahead of Ball State in JS's rankings. It gets even weirder...Paul Chryst was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in games played the week after playing Ohio State. While not exactly the same as 0-3, Jim McElwain is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS in games after playing Toledo which is pretty durn close. Can we expect the same result with Ball State this Saturday as we had with the Illini last weekend? Think I'll pay to find out....Pick: Ball State ML
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carolinablue
College Football Guru
Definitely makes me feel better about the accidental multi-bet on Ball State that I posted about in my thread!Ball State @ Central Michigan - a really odd instance of my data has occurred...last week Wisconsin opened as an 8.5pt fav over Illinois. They also were ranked 22 spots ahead of the Illini in Jeff Sagarin's rankings. This week, Central Michigan has opened as an 8.5pt fav over Ball State and they are also ranked 22 spots ahead of Ball State in JS's rankings. It gets even weirder...Paul Chryst was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in games played the week after playing Ohio State. While not exactly the same as 0-3, Jim McElwain is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS in games after playing Toledo which is pretty durn close. Can we expect the same result with Ball State this Saturday as we had with the Illini last weekend? Think I'll pay to find out....Pick: Ball State ML
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
Definitely slim picking for DD dogs this week. I really wish BC hadn't beaten Louisville but they may still be worth a look. As mentioned before, I think one of the pac12 dogs will win, just not sure which one. I could see Utah losing but that's a small number. ASU and trees worth a look.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Army @ Wake Forest - I think there's a decent shot of seeing a bit of letdown in play from the Demon Deacons this week. They've played three tough opponents in a row, including Clemson 2 weeks ago, and the only time this particular instance (including Clemson two weeks ago) has occurred in Dave Clawson's career they lost ATS by more than 20 pts. They were dogged to Pitt last season by +3.5 and ended up losing by 24. Meanwhile, we can all be assured of a bounce-back by Army. In games coming off a home loss in which they did not cover ATS, Jeff Monken's teams are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS. One of those instances, as a 15pt dog, Army had the lead at the half @ Air Force and ended up losing the game by only 4pts. Against Wake in particular, Jeff Monken is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS but the game he won was at Wake as a +6.5 dog and won the game 21-13. The other game he won ATS was as a +6 dog. The games he lost ATS & SU were as a pickem and a +3 dog. It seems to me that the greater the challenge, the greater the chance of Jeff Monken's teams rising to that challenge! We should NOT be surprised in the least that this trait is coming from one of our service academies. Still I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright win but I would not be shocked at all if it happens. I do think Army has the best chance out of any DD dog of winning this Saturday but the best bets are to place my money on the hopes of a Wake Forest 1st Qtr & 1st Half letdown...combined with a very inspired Army squad. Picks: Army 1st Qtr & 1st Half ML
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