Week 6 ML Dogs

I think Army has some potential. Army and Wake have actually played quite a bit the last 10-20 years.

Army is off a little this year however. They have lost 6 turnovers. Their margin is -3, but if you take out the Villanova game where they gained 2 TOs, their FBS margin is -5. Army is usually positive TO ratio team, the last time they were -1 more than one TO ratio was 2016. As weird as it might be, that year 2016 Army was off a turnover filled loss home vs North Texas then went on the road and beat Wake 21-13 as 6.5 pt dog. Army's 3rd down converstion rate is on average, but their 4th down conversion rate is off. They were 0-for-4 last week.

Army has potential this week, I like the reasons JRock has on it. They just need to play some better football, we know historically they are capable. Looks like they are missing QB Anderson more this year than anyone anticipated.
 
South Carolina @ Kentucky - FWIW....I don't think USCjr has what it takes to get a win in Lexington. I am worried about this game somewhat because we're beat up so I'd stay away from it if you were thinking of backing my Cats and laying the pts. Jaquez Jones has a possible season-ending injury at Ole Miss...Stoops has been tight-lipped about what exactly is the injury beyond that it is foot-related. Jones was having his best year ever. Flax (RT) went out of the game last Saturday and almost as soon as he did Wohlabaugh gave up the rush that caused the game-ending turnover. We're already missing JJ Weaver but he might play this weekend...do not assume he will tho. I am comforted to know though Spencer Rattler ranks 14th in the conference in passing efficiency...even Anthony Richardson ranks higher and you saw how our defense confused him in that game. Stoops has owned USCjr and has a 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS records against the Gamecocks. The only losses coming on the road at SC. He is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home vs. SC. He is also 3-0 SU as a home fav coming off a road loss in which he covered ATS. The combination of these trends and the fact I'm not sure if SR is good enough QB to lead his team to this road win makes me confident my Cats will win. But still, I don't like the fact we're getting beat up and will not be laying any pts with my Cats. Pick: Pass
 
I don't like the fact that South Carolina is off two very weak opponents, but I think this is actually a very big game for them being 0-2 SEC with an off week on deck and I think UK could be a little vulnerable here. I wish South Carolina was a little better, but better team doesn't always win. Shane Beamer pulled two SEC upsets last year.
 
s--k said:
I don't like the fact that South Carolina is off two very weak opponents, but I think this is actually a very big game for them being 0-2 SEC with an off week on deck and I think UK could be a little vulnerable here. I wish South Carolina was a little better, but better team doesn't always win. Shane Beamer pulled two SEC upsets last year.
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at home...not on the road.
 
s--k said:
true, but there can be a first time for everything!
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If ya hafta, go 1st Half ML...Stoops teams always play their best 2nd halves...so it would make sense and is more likely to happen in the 1st half. should get decent odds for 1st half since it's a -10.5 line.
 
My card....two 5, 6, 7, & 8-teamer RRs with:

#1:
Fresno State Bulldogs +280
Arizona Wildcats +360
Army Black Knights 1st Half +380
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +128
LSU Tigers +124
Akron Zips +310
Northwestern Wildcats +330
Ball State Cardinals +230
Risked $93 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $77,246.76

#2:
Fresno State Bulldogs +280
Arizona Wildcats +360
Army Black Knights 1st Qtr +244
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +128
LSU Tigers +124
Akron Zips 1st Half +242
Northwestern Wildcats +330
Ball State Cardinals +230
Risked $93 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $64,234.21

BOLTA!!

:watchingsports:
 
s--k said:
true, but there can be a first time for everything!
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Will Levis now questionable for the game Saturday…evidently suffered a sprained ankle in last game but played thru it….line has crashed to -5.5 from -10.5 last I saw so this is a big deal…
 
JROCK1966 said:
Will Levis now questionable for the game Saturday…evidently suffered a sprained ankle in last game but played thru it….line has crashed to -5.5 from -10.5 last I saw so this is a big deal…
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Think the instant reaction will be to play under if he doesn't play but I can really see a lot of short fields with turnovers
 
JROCK1966 said:
Akron @ Ohio - another short line. Small sample sizes from my coaches queries but here it goes. Joe Moorhead is 4-1 ATS coming off a home loss and Tim Albin is 0-2 ATS in home games off an road loss and his last one was a tough one. Kent State scored with a 1:44 to play to tie it and then won in OT. This one def has Zips 1st half ML written all over it for me but I might go FG here as well. Normally I don't like going ML on teams coming off a loss but few things come to mind...1) how this loss happened could cause Ohio to turn this loss into 2 losses, 2) Akron ranks 10 spots higher in Sagarin's ratings than Fordham who darn near pulled off the upset at Ohio a couple weeks back. Maybe that 10 spots is good enough for Akron to make the play or two needed to win this game? and finally 3) Akron is winless in FBS so far this season...they most certainly eyeing their 1st FBS win here. Pick: Akron 1st Half ML & FG ML

:popcorn:
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This is a good one.

Akron has been more competitive with Ohio the last couple years.

Last year Akron led 17-10 3rd Q before falling 34-17. Rourke got injured after not having a good game anyway, after that Ohio just ran backup Rodgers left, right, middle and Akron couldn't stop it. Irons had a pretty good game last year.
In 2020, Ohio did jump out 14-0, but Akron cut it to 14-10 before losing 24-10.

Looking at Akron's last two games vs Liberty and Bowling Green, I think this team has improved quite a bit since week 1 with the new staff. Liberty was without their starting QB, but still, Liberty posted their lowest offensive rushing, passing and total yardage of the season vs Akron. Liberty only won 21-12 and Akron slightly outgained them. Last week Akron only lost by 3 to Bowling Green. BG very slightly outgained them, the different in the game was a D TD BG scored and got a muffed punt recovery inside the A05 yard line (3 turnovers led to 17 BG pts).

Ohio has allowed 1376 combined yards the last two weeks vs Fordham and Kent State. Fordham passed for 500 and Kent ran for 300 - so Bobcats let you take your pick what you want to do. Ohio O still pretty good.

I might think that Akron feels like they are close and encouraged by close games the last two weeks. Mistakes are beating them, they aren't being outclassed vs teams their own size.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Tennessee @ LSU - this one will go down as the public fade of the week. Currently I see the Vols as public favs at a couple of websites. Brian Kelly has not been a home dog often coming back home off a road win but here he is....only the 2nd time this has happened in his career and he is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those instances. Josh Heupel is 1-2 ATS as a road fav coming off of a bye week...the lone win ATS was against my Cats last season and that is a heated rivalry. The Vols and Tigers have played only 5 times since 2006 so this is hardly what one might consider a heated rivalry. Lastly, LSU ranks 13th in Sagarin's Ratings and Tennessee 14th. Tennessee was taken into overtime in its last road game which was at Pittsburg who is currently ranked 51st! There is a lot of value in backing LSU this weekend IMHO and I think this has the makings of a DD win for the Tigers. Death Valley is going to be lit! Pick: LSU ML

:popcorn:
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1578450042746073089
 
s--k said:
A lot of small lines this week, which you know is not what I go after.

Army is a big one. Wake off two really big and tough games, actually 3 if we add in the near loss to Liberty. Army had bye then the surprising home loss to Georgia State. The two DD losses vs Sun Belt is a red flag for Army however and the D looks like a big liability again and we remember this game last year. I don't know, probably I don't play this.

App State at Texas State? Texas St disappointed last week. App State has been upset twice at home this year, big road fav role here. Texas State's staff and team was 3-0 ATS as home dog last year including cover vs Baylor (9 pt loss, was kind of lucky). They are 6-1-1 ATS as home dog the last two years. App State is 3-5-1 ATS last 2 years away fav including losing straight up 3x, but those 3 were small lines vs good teams, not a big line vs a bad team.

I don't know, I don't think I see a big target this week. Arkansas State has played some good ball this year, they are DD home dog. ULM, maybe. Texas Tech?
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One of Wake's problems last year might have been that they hadn't played an option offense in years. They played Army from 2012-2016, allowing 37 in 2012 and then just 67 total in the next 4. They played GT in 2017 (the only meeting since 2010) and lost 38-24. After that, they faced no option teams until Army LY unless one of their FCS opponents was doing it. I'm playing Wake team over. Will play the game over if total drops to 65. Ingame over is possible if things tart to look like last year. Wake has an open date next for what it's worth.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Army @ Wake Forest - I think there's a decent shot of seeing a bit of letdown in play from the Demon Deacons this week. They've played three tough opponents in a row, including Clemson 2 weeks ago, and the only time this particular instance (including Clemson two weeks ago) has occurred in Dave Clawson's career they lost ATS by more than 20 pts. They were dogged to Pitt last season by +3.5 and ended up losing by 24.
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They played Boston College after that three-game run last year against their two top rivals plus Clemson and won 41-10, covering by 26 points.
 
M.W. said:
They played Boston College after that three-game run last year against their two top rivals plus Clemson and won 41-10, covering by 26 points.
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Now, arguably, they had a letdown against Clemson after the 58-55 loss to UNC followed by the 45-42 win over State, so I'm not dismissing the possibility that we see a letdown this week in the Army game. (Note that Clemson-Wake went way OVER with a score of 48-27.) And sometimes having an open date up next makes things worse (like how things are at the office on Friday afternoon).
 
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s--k said:
I think Army has some potential. Army and Wake have actually played quite a bit the last 10-20 years.

Army is off a little this year however. They have lost 6 turnovers. Their margin is -3, but if you take out the Villanova game where they gained 2 TOs, their FBS margin is -5. Army is usually positive TO ratio team, the last time they were -1 more than one TO ratio was 2016. As weird as it might be, that year 2016 Army was off a turnover filled loss home vs North Texas then went on the road and beat Wake 21-13 as 6.5 pt dog. Army's 3rd down converstion rate is on average, but their 4th down conversion rate is off. They were 0-for-4 last week.

Army has potential this week, I like the reasons JRock has on it. They just need to play some better football, we know historically they are capable. Looks like they are missing QB Anderson more this year than anyone anticipated.
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Unlike Wake's next three opponents, all of whom Wake beat last year, Army actually beat Wake the last time they played in 2016. It's funny, because the 2012-2015 Deacons had 4 wins against Army and 11 against everyone else, while the 2016 Deacs couldn't beat Army but won 7 other games including a bowl game. Wake was improved (5-2 when they played Army) and must have taken Army lightly.
 
M.W. said:
Unlike Wake's next three opponents, all of whom Wake beat last year, Army actually beat Wake the last time they played in 2016. It's funny, because the 2012-2015 Deacons had 4 wins against Army and 11 against everyone else, while the 2016 Deacs couldn't beat Army but won 7 other games including a bowl game. Wake was improved (5-2 when they played Army) and must have taken Army lightly.
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?? Wake played Army last year and won 70-56 at Army. Probably the craziest game of the year.
 
You're right, and I somehow lost track of that while delving focusing on the less recent history.
 
bones said:
Going with UCLA plus the points and some on ML
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Hope you're wrong but I have concerns about this roadie as well. Utah has owned UCLA last 5 years but I think this is the best team Chip has had since he's been there.
 
M.W. said:
They played Boston College after that three-game run last year against their two top rivals plus Clemson and won 41-10, covering by 26 points.
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right...and they handled FSU last week very well but what happened last year after handling BC? They got hammered by Pitt by 24pts as a 3.5 dog....I'm specifically looking at what they did the 2nd game after playing Clemson. I realize it's a bit of a stretch to pigeonhole today's game this much but it's the best I can find....we'll know soon if history repeats itself.
 
Two Utes said:
Hope you're wrong but I have concerns about this roadie as well. Utah has owned UCLA last 5 years but I think this is the best team Chip has had since he's been there.
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I don't like it either, which makes me like it more - if that makes any sense. Made $ on Utes this year. Getting off the train
 
bones said:
I don't like it either, which makes me like it more - if that makes any sense. Made $ on Utes this year. Getting off the train
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Understood. I don't know what to make of UCLA. The UW win looked like a good one but they really got lucky to beat South Alabama. I expect scoring for both squads.
 
bones said:
I don't like it either, which makes me like it more - if that makes any sense. Made $ on Utes this year. Getting off the train
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Kyle Whittingham's teams are 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS after playing Oregon State including 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS on the road. If history is any indication, there is a good chance the Utes will be at their absolute best this afternoon.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Kyle Whittingham's teams are 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS after playing Oregon State including 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS on the road. If history is any indication, there is a good chance the Utes will be at their absolute best this afternoon.
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Stop, I already do not like my bet :rofl:
 
Hawaii @ San Diego St - @s--k has posted in the Underdog Contest one of his picks today is the Rainbows....thought I'd research it a bit more. Brady Hoke's Aztecs were a -6.5 fav last year in their game after playing Boise St. They ended up losing the game by a score of 13-46...did not cover the spread by almost 40 points! Talk about playing poorly! Obviously a small sample size but this instance, coupled with what @s--k already has seen, indicates it may be worth it for us today to consider putting some small change on the Rainbows ML. Good luck on what you decide!

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Hawaii @ San Diego St - @s--k has posted in the Underdog Contest one of his picks today is the Rainbows....thought I'd research it a bit more. Brady Hoke's Aztecs were a -6.5 fav last year in their game after playing Boise St. They ended up losing the game by a score of 13-46...did not cover the spread by almost 40 points! Talk about playing poorly! Obviously a small sample size but this instance, coupled with what @s--k already has seen, indicates it may be worth it for us today to consider putting some small change on the Rainbows ML. Good luck on what you decide!

:popcorn:
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Not much science, just that San Diego State is a bad team. They beat Toledo, but look at the box score. San Diego State historically has been upset as big favorites, better San Diego State teams.

Hawaii is not good no doubt, but they are off a bye so maybe that helps a little?

Bad team vs bad team, sure one is worse, but what did FIU vs New Mexico State show us last week?

You know me, I'm not happy unless I have one long shot dog to root for.
 
Played 2 more....2, 3, & 4-teamer RR:

#1
Fresno State Bulldogs +275
Arizona Wildcats +360
Army Black Knights +460
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +1050
Risked $22.55 ($2.05 per Parlay) to Win $4,521.45

#2
Army Black Knights 1st Half +350
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 1st Half +720
Arizona Wildcats Winner +360
Fresno State Bulldogs Winner +275
Risked $22.44 ($2.04 per Parlay) to Win $2,678.34

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Kyle Whittingham's teams are 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS after playing Oregon State including 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS on the road. If history is any indication, there is a good chance the Utes will be at their absolute best this afternoon.
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This Utah defense is the worst I've seen in years. Bad tackling, horrible containment on the edges and a DL that can't get much pressure. Ugh
 
One week early on Texas State..... I picked the wrong week. I had a feeling in ASU, just couldn't pull the trigger. You knew the pac12 was fling to have some upsets at some point. I'm sure there are more to come.
 
s--k said:
I don't like the fact that South Carolina is off two very weak opponents, but I think this is actually a very big game for them being 0-2 SEC with an off week on deck and I think UK could be a little vulnerable here. I wish South Carolina was a little better, but better team doesn't always win. Shane Beamer pulled two SEC upsets last year.
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Sorry I was busy last week and forgot to come read and post but the only thing you forgot was the saga of coach stoops disrespecting coach Beamer to the point where little man has had this game circled all season.

Here is a nice little video recap from twitter
Recap
 
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