Week 5 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 4 Winners
Purdue +205
SMU +195
North Carolina +140
WKU +125
Illinois St +170
UT Martin +165
ODU (Biggest Dog of the Week) +28 +3000
Texas +135
Idaho St +225
Stony Brook +115
Morgan St +33 +6000
Norfolk St +155
KentLucky +315
Texas Tech +475
Coastal Carolina +125
Stephen F Austin +250

Not to many dogs barked this week but the ones that did were very loud.
Thanks again to EVERYONE that stops by and drops a line.

Lets Discuss our Week 5 Match-ups.

Go
 
Best Performers this year (teams with more than one upset):

BYU
Cincinnati
Coastal Carolina
Duke
Hawaii
Kansas
Kentucky
LSU
Texas Tech
 
These could have some appeal to me, order of earliest to latest:

Tulane +466 home vs Memphis
- Memphis is good, but better than last year? Not so sure they are better than last year and think Tulane should matchup a little better this time around...lost by 30 last year, was a 14 pt game in the 3rd qrt. Biggest concern is Tulane's OL.

Kent State +278 at Ball State
- Disappointed with how Ball St competed at Indiana and followed it up with an underwhelming home game vs WKU. Say what you will about Kent State, but they are giving effort and appear to have new energy with this coaching staff. They look close to getting a win vs teams their own size. Ball St has talent and playmakers, but are failing to execute.

UConn +600 home vs Cincy
- Call me biased in disbelieving Cincy. Unfortunately UConn is very bad in all aspects. Wish Cincy was playing somebody else this week instead. If UConn plays A+ game this upset wouldn't surprise me, problem is we probably get their typical bad game instead. Pindell?

Old Dom +178 at East Carolina
- Need ODU to continue to play to that potential they showed last week. Most are going to think last week is a fluke, but ODU has that potential....having only showed it once out of 4 games makes it hard to expect it here, especially off their super bowl, program defining win. ECU on the upswing. Just wouldn't surprise me and strange seeing ECU favored. ECU could win, but expecting them to win? Seems like a 50-50 type game. Just were will ODU's head be at?

Pitt +495 at UCF
- UCF run D could be something in Pitt's favor here. If Pitt can run on them all it might take is a positive TO ratio to come away with this upset. It's rare, but when UCF is negative ratio their games are close (-2 at SMU won by 7, -2 vs Memphis won by 7). Most people won't like this one based on the Pitt UNC loss, I agree not a good look. Pitt is just one of those teams that can deliver good games and all they need is a couple breaks.

Nebraska +142 home vs Purdue
- The urgency of now; Only home game over next 3 weeks is this one. Nebraska had chances to win both their first two home games vs equal teams to Purdue. Wish Martinez just hadn't played at all last week so he would be more rested here. After getting your ass kicked ,now you come home to all your family, friends and fans and what do you do? I think they compete hard in this one and you never know what Purdue will do to lose a game.

Nevada +205 at Air Force
- Wondering how much AF has actually improved over disappointing 2017? If not for a couple big turnovers vs quality Utah St team, AF isn't in that game last week. If they are about the same as last year, no reason Nevada can't win this one as Nevada is a better team 2018 and this one went to the wire last year.

Northwestern +426 home vs Michigan
- Buy low sell high. I think NW is better than results of last 2 games implies. I like front 7 for NW D. Hopefully we see the best Thorson has to offer as he gets further removed from the ACL injury and off rest. They moved the ball on Duke, but stalled. Losing to Akron is a fluke. Michigan getting better, their D always scary, their O doesn't seem anything that NW D should have trouble with.

Middle Tennessee +171 home vs FAU
- FAU clearly not close to what they were last year, still good team, but not 2017 good. MTSU gets to recharge and heal up after playing 2 SEC teams out of their first 3. Conference home opener before 2 weeks away. Stockstill didn't play last year vs FAU (backup had 3 INTs). FAU only outgained them by 15 yards.

La Tech +257 at North Texas
- Impressed with LaTech effort vs high quality D last week (400+ yard and outgained LSU). Will be tested in a different way this time vs NT O, but they should matchup. Last year LT led 17-7 and missed a would-be game winning FG as time expired.

Ole Miss +367 at LSU
- OM only trailed by 7 in the 3rd qrt before losing by 16 last year. Like LSU as a dog, not so much as a favorite, I like them but don't think they are elite or unbeatable by any means. OM D obvious concern, although LSU doesn't seem built to exploit it the same way they have in the past.
 
Kent State @ Ball State: I like Kent State here. They're played a couple of significantly better opponents than Ball state has the last two weeks so SOS is in their favor. One thing I have come to look for over these many months of my SDQL experimentation is looking for for queries where the favorite has yet to win ATS. This one fits the bill. Look at how close the scores are in these samples and look at how huge the lines were compared to the KSU/BSU line. Putting Kent State on my list of dogs to play....

. ballst1.jpg
 
Kent State deserves consideration. Although Ball State did cover as a fav vs Central Connecticut.
 
Nevada @ Air Force: Nevada will be on my card. Notice the 2 losses were lines of single digits and the 3 wins were lines of double digits. (Pic 1) When I enter my turnover criteria the only result comes back is a SU loss. (See Pic 2)

nevada2.jpg

nevada1.jpg
 
Syracuse @ Clemson: My 3rd post for the week is a bomb! Time to seriously consider whether or not the Cuse can win 2 years in a row. Pic 1 show results for home teams in past situations similar to Clemson's this week. Their records are 4-7 SU for a 36% win percentage and 5-6 ATS. See Pic 1. When I add in the defensive stats for each team in Pic 2 then the records become 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS for the home team. Talk to me boyzzzz....can Cuse pull it off in Death Valley?

clemson1.jpg
clemson2.jpg
 
I like Syracuse again ATS, but last year we saw some vulnerabilities in Clemson I thought and Syracuse was playing better than the final results they were getting.

Totally different dynamic this year.

Even if it is still Bryant at QB, Clemson has much better and more developed receivers this year than last year. I thought that was a major weakness of their team last year. So they are upgraded. If you throw in Lawrence that is even more of an upgrade their O has compared to last year's game. We all know Bryant got hurt last year and while that played a role in the upset, Cuse had success against the vaunted Tiger D. All those pieces are back for Clemson, hard not to expect them to be super up to atone for that loss.

Syracuse may in fact be better too, which I thought would be tough losing Ismael and Phillips, although the drop off hasn't been as big as I thought it might. Their D has been up and down and hasn't been challenged in the way that Clemson will.

Syracuse is improved as well this year and I do think they can compete vs Clemson, but from where I sit, how I try and pick upsets like this, the intangibles are different this year. Pretty easy for me to ride with Cuse and the pts, hard to see me going out on the ML limb, we'll see as the weak moves on.
 
s--k said:
I like Syracuse again ATS, but last year we saw some vulnerabilities in Clemson I thought and Syracuse was playing better than the final results they were getting.

Totally different dynamic this year.

Even if it is still Bryant at QB, Clemson has much better and more developed receivers this year than last year. I thought that was a major weakness of their team last year. So they are upgraded. If you throw in Lawrence that is even more of an upgrade their O has compared to last year's game. We all know Bryant got hurt last year and while that played a role in the upset, Cuse had success against the vaunted Tiger D. All those pieces are back for Clemson, hard not to expect them to be super up to atone for that loss.

Syracuse may in fact be better too, which I thought would be tough losing Ismael and Phillips, although the drop off hasn't been as big as I thought it might. Their D has been up and down and hasn't been challenged in the way that Clemson will.

Syracuse is improved as well this year and I do think they can compete vs Clemson, but from where I sit, how I try and pick upsets like this, the intangibles are different this year. Pretty easy for me to ride with Cuse and the pts, hard to see me going out on the ML limb, we'll see as the weak moves on.
Click to expand...

That freshman QB is way better than Bryant. Maybe over 66 is a play? My thinking is that Clemson offense is undervalued on the QB switch and Cuse will get some points and be uptempo. I think Clemson gets to 40+...so need 20ish from Cuse...
 
Marsski said:
That freshman QB is way better than Bryant. Maybe over 66 is a play? My thinking is that Clemson offense is undervalued on the QB switch and Cuse will get some points and be uptempo. I think Clemson gets to 40+...so need 20ish from Cuse...
Click to expand...

that makes sense. NO total listed yet @ Las Vegas books but http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ shows "opening" 63 1/2

"Siberacuse" WIN 55-42 @ Western Michigan, WIN 62-10 vs Wagner, WIN 30-7 vs Florida State & 51-21 vs U Conn
"Clem Kaddidlehopper" vs Furman WIN 48-7, WIN 28-26 @ Texas A&M, WIN 38-7 vs Georgia Southern & WIN 49-21 @ Georgia Tech
 
Boise State @ Wyoming: When I entered the previous game margins for home dogs on a weeks rest and playing another off a bye, I got very little results but the one I got here was another eye-opener for sure. 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS. See pic 1 as Wyoming is active on this query. An obvious huge mismatch is the offensive production from both teams so I so prudence required me to compare those two total offenses. In order to get hits, I had to reduce the margins back to 0 but kept the W or L by each team. The records were 3-7 SU and 8-2 ATS. There have been 8 out of 10 teams with over 200ypg offensive differential cover ATS. A 30% winning % for dogs is not unheard of average for me to back. Normally I will back off at anything less than 20%. I added the total defensive stats/comparison in pic 3 and it came back as 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. Wyoming for sure should be jacked and ready for this game as Boise is their big rivalry, correct? What do you guys think the Cowboys' chances are Saturday?

wyo1.jpgwyo2.jpgwyo3.jpg
 
Florida @ Mississippi State: I think I found a gem boyzzzz.....home favs with previous margins are 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in similar situations MSU finds themselves in this weekend. State has over a 100ypg total offensive average more than Florida so I put it in my query in pic 2 expecting to see better results for the home team and Whoah!! It's no where close. 0-3 SU and 0-3ATS. How's that for counter-intuitive!! You might be thinking, and I am too, that State might be jacked to be playing against their former coach and I'm sure they will be. But an argument can be made that the former coach will be able to game plan better than anyone against his former team too! Gators for the +265ML!!

FL1.jpgFL2.jpg
 
Wyoming for sure should be jacked and ready for this game as Boise is their big rivalry, correct?
Click to expand...

Technically Colorado State is their biggest rival. When BYU was in the MWC/WAC that was a big rivalry. To my knowledge Boise isn't any kind of historic rival, I think Wyoming has only won once out of the last 12, an upset we won in our ML thread that year. This year, I don't see it, but you never know.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Just played Texas Tech +3.5 and +150.
They manhandled OK st.

Tt defense is much better than wvu
Click to expand...
Played Temple +13 and +400
Click to expand...

I could see those.

Texas Tech isn't a stretch. They are hot right now. Feels like turnovers will determine which way that game goes.

Temple should be a little tougher right? I can see a few ways their D keeps this game close. It will come down to how much success you believe a limited Temple O can have vs BC. BC apparently is several notches down on D this year, for what reason I do not know, but a weaker than normal BC D could give Temple some opportunities, but really hard to trust Temple O to win this game.
 
You might be thinking, and I am too, that State might be jacked to be playing against their former coach and I'm sure they will be. But an argument can be made that the former coach will be able to game plan better than anyone against his former team too! Gators for the +265ML!!
Click to expand...

Yeah, like you said it goes both ways. Beyond what you said about the emotion, Miss St players should be intimately familiar with what Florida is going to be doing on both sides of the ball. So that is a significant edge, they may know the Florida offense and defense better than the Florida personnel will. The other side of the coin is that Mullen and Grantham should know the strengths and weakness of the entire roster for MSU, so they can design plays and scheme to get certain players in certain situations.

People saying that Moorehead was out-coached at UK. People wondering if Fitzgerald is 100%.

Certainly not out of the question of Florida winning. What % chance would you put on Florida winning. Being a UK fan I'm sure you watched every minute of the game at Florida and last week vs Mississippi State so your opinion is unique in that you saw your team beat both of these teams.
 
Army has slide back to +8 from an earlier +9 after opening +7
Click to expand...

I may be on Army. It is tough because I have been high on Buffalo, but may be time to switch gears in this situation. I envision a close game, like a typical Army vs MAC/Temple/Duke/North Texas/etc game...I mean all these games Army is in are usually close. Beat Buffalo 21-17 last year, I think Army ran a fake punt on their final possession to kill the clock. Lost at Buffalo in OT 2 years ago. No doubt Buffalo is in a better place right now, much more mature and confident. Army may not be significantly worse though. It just seems like Army is always in close games with other mid-major and lower-tier P5 teams and this will probably be the same. No concern about a hangover for Army losing close at Oklahoma. These are Army kids, if anyone can handle adversity and flush disappointment out of their mind it is Army kids. If anything it builds confidence that what they are doing works as long as they execute they can play with anyone. Should be a fun game.
 
EL CAPO said:
BYU vs washington ? cougars look like a cover to me
Click to expand...

That was my initial lean as well. You have any concern about Mangum throwing into that secondary? I kinda do. Leaned BYU just because Washington is ho-hum, solid, tough, winning team...but not anything special. BYU appears to have new lease on life, however, that O...not sure how much success they can have. You?
 
EL CAPO said:
BYU vs washington ? cougars look like a cover to me
Click to expand...

"Bee Why? Ewe's" covering the +17 1/2 VERY probable. WAITING for the moneyline :)

BYU
WON @ Arizona 28-23
lose vs U Cal 18-21
WON @ Wisconsin 24-21
WON vs McNeese State 30-3

Washington
lose @ Auburn 16-21
WIN vs North Dakota 45-3
WIN @ Utah 21-7
WIN vs Arizona State 27-20
note: Hushies do NOT cover vs UND and Arizona State :nonofinger:
 
s--k said:
Yeah, like you said it goes both ways. Beyond what you said about the emotion, Miss St players should be intimately familiar with what Florida is going to be doing on both sides of the ball. So that is a significant edge, they may know the Florida offense and defense better than the Florida personnel will. The other side of the coin is that Mullen and Grantham should know the strengths and weakness of the entire roster for MSU, so they can design plays and scheme to get certain players in certain situations.

People saying that Moorehead was out-coached at UK. People wondering if Fitzgerald is 100%.

Certainly not out of the question of Florida winning. What % chance would you put on Florida winning. Being a UK fan I'm sure you watched every minute of the game at Florida and last week vs Mississippi State so your opinion is unique in that you saw your team beat both of these teams.
Click to expand...
1) I don’t think Moorhead was outcoached. It was a tsunami of Ky’s talented D combined with a high level of emotion (I wrote about it in my SDQL thread) that overwhelmed State. Stoops said after the game their plan was simple by winning single matchups and playing more physical than the other team.
2) Ky gashed State a few times running the ball. I thought the game at UF was a bit tougher for running for Snell. Wilson made more big plays for us at UF.
3) Score was closer at UF keep on my the fumble recovery for a TD at the end that made the spread DDs.
4) Ky completely shutdown State rushing. UF “chose” not to run. I think UF running back had like 3 or 4 carrries. That’s not getting shutdown imo that’s simply a matter of choosing not to give him a chance.
5) Both games neither QB was able to beat UK thru the air although I think Franks has a bit more success than Fitz.
6) Problem for me is I did not watch UF games vs CSU or UT do not sure how much improvement they’ve made since our game. Maybe someone can chime in on what they saw at UT.
 
I see Anthony Johnson key wr for Buffalo is questionable with leg.

I watched 4th qtr of odu game, no matter why they dominated, they did. I simply dont accept ecu as good, particularly there D compared to bud foster.

I played odu +6.5/105 & ML +230
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I see Anthony Johnson key wr for Buffalo is questionable with leg.

I watched 4th qtr of odu game, no matter why they dominated, they did. I simply dont accept ecu as good, particularly there D compared to bud foster.

I played odu +6.5/105 & ML +230
Click to expand...

was wondering WHY that line took a dump. opened Army +7 got as high as +9 NOW +7 1/2 :confused:
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Lerinkrat, I think a majority are on Army, idk details of this injury
Click to expand...

with the Cadets "Panzer Kampf" ball control ground game I am NOT surprised :)

seen anything on Hawaii ??? they opened -12 went up to -12 1/2 NOW just -11 @ Westgate. I see NO injuries listed. Cole McDonald and the Rainbows should clobber sorry ass San Hoser State
 
ML's of 4 pts or more worth a look (little point in the less than 4's)

UCLA - Have to think this squad gets a little better every week. Unclear if Colorado is actually any good. Wins against CSU and NH are meaningless to me and they were outplayed by a Nebraska team that is otherwise struggling. I definitely think this is a ball game and will probably add UCLA at some point with the ats.

Army - possible key injury to Buffalo WR. I don't think enough has changed year over year to think there should be a line shift year over year like this game has. option always has the chance of limiting game possession which makes for good underdogging. Sort of a Buffalo fan boy and this is the first game I am not really liking them very much. Army kids don't react to normal letdown spots the way some other kids do. More mature athletes. Just in no hurry to fade Buffalo.

Louisiana - put $1 on it just so you can frame it. ya this was a joke.

Virginia - Executing well. Haven't been impressed with NCSU yet.

Kent State - Ball State just keeps disappointing. At a certain point the market read on ball state might just be wrong. Kent state will effort the whole game.

ODU - will be covered in this thread no doubt.

Kansas State - There is a lot of history of kstate doing to better Texas teams what it doesn't seem like it should. Kansas State has also likely underperformed so far this year. Kstate usually has a gamer at QB though and not sure that is the case here. I don't really like this one much but i have seen kstate do things to Texas when they had zero business doing it before.

USM - might be worth a flyer. Is there an outside chance that Auburn isn't nearly as good as we have been giving them credit for?

Liberty - seems like an easy ML to take a shot at particularly with matchup. UNM gave up 8.3 yards per attempt to incarnate word, 11.6 yards per attempt to Horni and some back up wide receivers and 6.2 yards per attempt to that atrocity of a NMSU offense. Liberty is gonna toss it around and i don't see why UNM stops them outside of the away spot. This seems like an easy one to me as far as investing goes.

Florida - Mississippi State tackles couldn't back peddle fast enough to stop the speed rushes of uk ... could see similar here. familiarity of the team might help mullen, though i think motivation favors miss state. I really like this miss state team and this implies pickish at florida, so i dont think there is any value on florida but thought it should be mentioned since miss st could only muster 7 against a comparable defense last week. Plus mississippi state will probably have 200 yards in penalties.

VT - might be an angry team, they don't have Jackson at QB and Duke doesn't have Jones at QB. The FSU game may have very well been a lot more about FSU learning systems than VT being good on defense though. Also a huge coaching mismatch in favor of duke. I mention this because the line is not like this were it not for last week. so a week ago at this time, this line is VERY different. Also what is Jones worth? has to be at least 4 pts. Don't think duke is dd better than VT at full health on their home field. tough game to figure out.

charlotte - UAB is a bad favorite. I think charlotte is underrated though they stink.

SJSU - class relief and team appears to be improving. tough travel.

La Tech - small chance they are the better team?

Oregon State - I know, i know .. and not saying it is worth any real money but ASU has just run through a gauntlet and this seems like a letdown spot to me. Oregon State can score on people so you cannot just sleepwalk against them and win by 30. Of the bigger dogs, this spot seems the nicest.

Toledo - I just think they are a quality team and will get better on defense as the season progresses. Fresno state certainly has the better defense in this game and is the more hard nosed team. But Toledo can score and fresno occassionally struggles offensively. No knock on Fresno State but this should be a close one. Have toledo ATS and if nothing else, feel pretty good about backdoor possibilities on that.
 
Last edited:
Johnnyonthespot said:
It was more a question. The article and the penalty are a bit ambiguous
Click to expand...

Penalty was based on percentage of total number of games so since we now only have 11 games on the schedule that’s why that group of guys are back tomorrow as they served the 30% once the Pitt game wrapped.
 
Percentage of total number of games sounds almost made up, yknow? How about we make it simple from the beginning and say 3? NCAA clown show. I know it's your team, not trying to burn you, it is just typical to me.
 
s--k said:
I like Syracuse again ATS, but last year we saw some vulnerabilities in Clemson I thought and Syracuse was playing better than the final results they were getting.

Totally different dynamic this year.

Even if it is still Bryant at QB, Clemson has much better and more developed receivers this year than last year. I thought that was a major weakness of their team last year. So they are upgraded. If you throw in Lawrence that is even more of an upgrade their O has compared to last year's game. We all know Bryant got hurt last year and while that played a role in the upset, Cuse had success against the vaunted Tiger D.
Click to expand...
It's misleading to say Bryant "got hurt" in the Cuse game. He started the game hurt (ankle) and was completely ineffective as a result. The concussion suffered late in the first half should have salvaged the game for Clemson, but the staff played the wrong backup QB, who was absolutely atrocious. Allegedly, the staff didn't want Hunter Johnson to look too good because they were scared Trevor Lawrence would decommit, so they played Zerrick Cooper instead. Clemson also missed two field goals, and it was a long trip on a short week to play a Cuse team that had played at home the previous Saturday.

You are right about the receivers. Higgins and Rodgers are a huge upgrade over Cain and McCloud.

As to your point about the D:

https://www.tigernet.com/story/foot...e-is-power-in-defending-Syracuse-attack-17258
 
I wish I had the time to find out if there is a certain # of a dog that has the highest % of winning outright.
For some reason an 8/9 pt dog seems to stick out in my head that is a # to focus on that has a high % of winning outright.
Ya know, if I have some down time watching the Ryder Cup I’ll do it for just this year.
But I would like to do like a 5yr backtest in the off season
 
Last edited:
ProV1Colt said:
I wish I had the time to find out if there is a certain # of a dog that has the highest % of winning outright.
For some reason an 8pt dog seems to stick out in my head that is a # to focus on that has a high % of winning outright.
Ya know, if I have some down time watching the Ryder Cup I’ll do it for just this year.
But I would like to do like a 5yr backtest in the off season
Click to expand...
Easzy peazy....just change the number to the line you want and read the resulting SU%,,,here's the link. Of course, SDQL only goes back about 20 years or so but it's a good sample.

http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=line=8+and+D&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

line8.jpg
 
Anthony Johnson is a major factor in Buffalo's offense. Best WR by far and one that the rifle looks for and even force-feeds on big downs. Army looks good +7.5 if he can't go...
 
Marsski said:
Anthony Johnson is a major factor in Buffalo's offense. Best WR by far and one that the rifle looks for and even force-feeds on big downs. Army looks good +7.5 if he can't go...
Click to expand...
I agree Mars and was looking at same tonight.
 
Nebraska, BYU, Kansas State, and The Ville are all worth a look.

Kansas State is underperforming for some reason, which is not what a Snyder team normally does. The question is can they finally play up to form against a look-ahead Texas team in a bad spot.
 
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