Week 5 ML Dogs

Going back through my list on post #3.

Doubt I will ML Tulane tomorrow night, just too hard to justify and make a case. Tulane is a decent home dog under Fritz, 1-0 ATS 2018 (+6.5 OT loss to Wake), 2-0 ATS 2017 (+11.5 vs USF who was up big and let Tulane come back, +267 outright upset vs Houston), 1-2 ATS 2016 (near upset of Navy, 10 pt loss to Memphis +11, blowout loss to Temple). Tulane is just deficient in too many areas and Memphis is tough. I do think Memphis D numbers are suspect, South Alabama had success last week and Memphis hasn't faced too many good Os yet. Will probably take a run on the +ATS still with Wave.

I'm also dropping UConn. Nobody wants to have money on that team to win straight up myself included. It's just when you see one team be over valued and potentially vulnerable you want to be able to move against them, but UConn is not the team to do that with.

Scratch the Pitt ML. Yeah, Pitt could beat UCF...but how do you sell that? Pitt can run on them, ok. But Pitt has scored all of 10 pts in the second half this year. Just no signs point to this. Add the fact that UCF will probably be pretty up to play a P5 team, one of their only chances to impress anyone in their bid for some kind of post-season bid. Pitt does have an occasional history of surprises, so anything is possible, but how do you actually risk money on it happening?

Northwestern beating Michigan got alot tougher this week with the Larkin news. I really feel like NW D will be ok here provided their O can atleast sustain some drives and not fall victim to field position and wearing down, but now have less confidence in what NW can do vs the Mich D with a key piece of the O out of the picture.

So dropping those off the list. Figuring out my level of commitment on the others still or any new ones, like Army potentially.

I was trying to figure out...who is the best looking home dog this week? Some of these obviously would never be thought of as plays, but here are all the home dogs:
Tulane, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Kansas, Georgia State, UConn, Miami, Oh, Louisville, Nebraska, Kansas State, Northwestern, Washington State, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee, San Jose St, Wyoming, Western Kentucky, Penn State, Arizona, Cal.

Who is your favorite home dog there? I think mine is Nebraska and then MTSU.
 
s--k said:
Going back through my list on post #3.

Doubt I will ML Tulane tomorrow night, just too hard to justify and make a case. Tulane is a decent home dog under Fritz, 1-0 ATS 2018 (+6.5 OT loss to Wake), 2-0 ATS 2017 (+11.5 vs USF who was up big and let Tulane come back, +267 outright upset vs Houston), 1-2 ATS 2016 (near upset of Navy, 10 pt loss to Memphis +11, blowout loss to Temple). Tulane is just deficient in too many areas and Memphis is tough. I do think Memphis D numbers are suspect, South Alabama had success last week and Memphis hasn't faced too many good Os yet. Will probably take a run on the +ATS still with Wave.

I'm also dropping UConn. Nobody wants to have money on that team to win straight up myself included. It's just when you see one team be over valued and potentially vulnerable you want to be able to move against them, but UConn is not the team to do that with.

Scratch the Pitt ML. Yeah, Pitt could beat UCF...but how do you sell that? Pitt can run on them, ok. But Pitt has scored all of 10 pts in the second half this year. Just no signs point to this. Add the fact that UCF will probably be pretty up to play a P5 team, one of their only chances to impress anyone in their bid for some kind of post-season bid. Pitt does have an occasional history of surprises, so anything is possible, but how do you actually risk money on it happening?

Northwestern beating Michigan got alot tougher this week with the Larkin news. I really feel like NW D will be ok here provided their O can atleast sustain some drives and not fall victim to field position and wearing down, but now have less confidence in what NW can do vs the Mich D with a key piece of the O out of the picture.

So dropping those off the list. Figuring out my level of commitment on the others still or any new ones, like Army potentially.

I was trying to figure out...who is the best looking home dog this week? Some of these obviously would never be thought of as plays, but here are all the home dogs:
Tulane, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Kansas, Georgia State, UConn, Miami, Oh, Louisville, Nebraska, Kansas State, Northwestern, Washington State, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee, San Jose St, Wyoming, Western Kentucky, Penn State, Arizona, Cal.

Who is your favorite home dog there? I think mine is Nebraska and then MTSU.
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Western Ky. has my interest. The SU record is not all that great at 1-4 but look at those scores compared to the totals. Lots of one score differences and those totals are about one score more than this game. Interesting.....

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I am going to be on Ole Miss, I could see them winning.

What has beat Ole Miss vs LSU the last couple years has been a dominant rushing game with elite RBs Fournette and Guice. The Tiger OL is in flux right now and has some weakness, the running game is still good, but not what it has been in recent history. This LSU rushing O ranks 12th in the SEC 170ypg (4.09ypc), actually Ole Miss had better rushing numbers 175ypg (5.23ypc). Joe Burrow brings ball security and stability to the LSU O, although he is completing just 49% (LT 57%, Aub 43%, SeLa 50%, Mia 46%). Miami and Auburn are understandable, but the SeLa game was just 50%. Only 3 passing TDs. Danny Etling had a higher QBR.

LSU D is still tough as always. Nothing easy here for Rebels. Admittedly, it may've simply been a flat spot for LSU last week, but LaTech did roll up 417 yards. LSU did lead vs LT 24-0, although 14 pts were off of 4plays and 31 yards following turnovers, so not like the O was driving the field for all those pts. Still LT made it a 24-21 game early in the 4th before LSU pulled away. LaTech outgained them and also had slightly better yard per play avg. Ole Miss was in a flat spot as well last week vs Kent State. Ole Miss did outgain them by 160y and nearly doubled their ypp. Both teams will bring a different game plan and effort level this week that is for sure.

The Ole Miss O has weapons a plenty. Ta'amu is the third highest passing eff QB in SEC (behind Tua and From). Everyone knows about the WRs - LSU did shut the top 3 down last year, but that was also the game that Patterson tore his PCL. Ole Miss has a JUCO RB Scottie Phillips who has provided better balance compared to this point a year ago with over 460y on the year with 7.5 ypc. The Rebel OL is a veteran unit anchored by future early 1st rounder Greg Little and the starting 5 OL boasts 105 career starts (there is a rFr starting at RG with just 4 career starts).

Vs most teams the Ole Miss O should be good enough to move it and score. LSU will be challenge, but they are a better collective group than LSU has faced so far.

Ole Miss D, there just is never anything to like, they are bad once again this year. Some new faces, a 2017 JUCO signee Winters is having a bigger impact at DE, 2 LBs are TFr and the other is a Soph. Those new starters for this season do offer some upside if they are short on live reps. Two DBs are out for the year with ACL injuries including CB/S Jaylon Jones who will be sorely missed (plus reserve Custis is out). On a positive note Ken Webster is set to return this week for his first action of the season. He may not be sharp in his first game, but he has a strong skill set and years of experience to give LSU 4 solid-to-good CB options.

Expect Ole Miss to load the box and leave the CBs on an island. Can they stop this version of LSU's run game? Can Burrow and LSU receivers make necessary plays? What will Ole Miss O look like vs LSU's talented and well coached D? One name to potentially watch from LSU is Andre Anthony getting into the backfield and pressuring Ta'amu.

LSU is going to drop some games. Georgia and Alabama are the obvious ones that you'd figure they could lose, but I don't think this team is good enough to go 10-2, really I could see any team on their schedule from now until first week of November capable of beating them (Ole Miss, at Florida, UGA, Miss St, Bama). I mean they won't lose them all, no. But there are a couple losses coming. Sometimes it is the unexpected upsets that happen before the more likely ones in the coming weeks. Whether or not you feel Ole Miss is the team to do it, they will offer the best return on investment should they do it and make a reasonable ML play in my book.
 
Thing about North Texas is they are really good. But they are also getting some good fortune in their games.

Liberty actually outgained them last week at halftime but trailed 7-21. Arkansas threw 6 SIX INTs....NT had that sneaky punt return, a pick-six for 14 pts plus 3 short fields off turnovers for 17 more of their pts in the Ark upset. NT won by 27, but only outgained Ark by 40 yards. They killed SMU week 1, but SMU did have 14 TFL, either a fluke or revealing some weakness in the NT blocking that may or may not still exist. LT has very good DL.

This game vs La Tech should be a good one and the upset could be in play. Like NT, LaTech is a very experienced team.

Things I like about LaTech:

They are off a good game vs LSU where they passed for 330 yards (most allowed by LSU since 2015)(most to a single receiver Hardy since 2012).

3 good receiving options in Teddy Veal (leading rec last year, All-CUSA 2017), Adrian Hardy (leading rec this year, on his way to 2018 All-CUSA), Rhashid Bonnette (#2 rec last year, current #2 this year)

Experienced OL same 5 have started all 4 this year and they have an All-CUSA LG in O'Shea Dugas (35 career starts). Jr RG Ethan Reed has 30 career starts. All told this OL has 112 career starts.

All-CUSA DE Jaylon Ferguson is the nation's leading active sack leader.

According to Phil Steele, they are the 10th most experienced team in the country (were 120th in experience last season).

If you want a feel-good story, cancer survivor Jaqwis Dancy is LT's leading rusher

LT is only 1-of-14 teams that is perfect in the RZ this year. 11-for-11 with 9 TDs.

A few things to worry about:

If you've watched much LaTech football you know J'Mar Smith can be frustrating at times. Despite some strengths elsewhere on this team, as he goes, LT goes.

One danger with North Texas is they are explosive and they can erupt for a multi-score run at any moment.

North Texas boasts ncaa 3rd ranked RZ D (LT #1 ranked RZ O).

Mean Green are also a very experienced team and have some play makers on O as well as D...they have 2 DBs that lead CUSA in PBUs (Hall and Muhammad) and have 2 LB that lead CUSA in TFL (Ejiya and Garner).

North Texas has very good special teams in all phases.

North Texas is unretiring #75 Joe Greene's number and wearing special jerseys for this game...if that kind of thing gets your or not, could serve as a distraction or a unique motivation.

Last year

LT led 17-7 at one point and led 23-17 in the 4th qrt. NT scored a TD to lead 24-23 and LT missed a FG to end the game. NT did outgain them by 100y.

NT is playing with more confidence and is better this year, but LT is also improved. If last year's game came down to a late 4th qrt FG, this one should be close as well. LT has played in 2 close games already this year and shouldn't be out of their element in a tight game. NT has blown everyone out, which is good for them, but the level of competition hasn't been strong. LT should provide a test and possible upset.
 
Memphis @ Tulane: I think the home team is definitely the one to back tonight ATS and will be on them somehow ML as well. The SU records in my queries are not good but there is a criteria missing in those games that is present in tonight's. In pic 1, the lone ATS loss was with UTSA who had a negative turnover margin. That comparison included a team with over 200 more ypg Total O very similar to tonight's game. In pic 2, we have the previous game margins and a similar game with line and total which the home team barely lost. Check out pic 3, yes there are no hits back on my query that I added the positive turnover margin (the missing criteria I mentioned earlier) and it came back record-less. Translation: tonight is the first time in SDQL database history with teams matching up, in this particular game, like these two teams do. The difference being Tulane has a better turnover margin than the other home dogs. I am of the opinion that Tulane will cover the spread and a Memphis turnover or two could play huge in tonight's game for the home team to earn the outright win. Friday Night Home Conference Dogs Baby!! Let's roll!

tulane1.jpgtulane2.jpgtulane3.jpg
 
MTSU doesn't quite feel like the risk is worth the reward ,only +130/+3 home vs FAU. Why isn't this line higher?

In a reverse psychology kind of way I like that because it seems so easy to back FAU. I do not know what MTSU had done to date to be this short of a home dog. FAU beat them 38-20 last year (no Stockstill, FAU led 24-6 HT).

Some of my reasoning for wanting MTSU is that this team has some big goals, have alot of experience and some quality players. Like this is supposed to be the year for something special for their program. Getting the defending conference champ at home to open CUSA play was my primary angle.

And that defending CUSA Champ, FAU hasn't been playing at the same level as last year. Singletary does lead FBS with 10 TDs (although 5 came vs Bethune-Cookman). AF loaded up to stop the run and Robison responded by throwing for 471. So some of the pieces are still there for them to play at a high level, we just haven't seen it very consistently. FAU's D should be having them compete better, not vs the likes of Oklahoma, but was surprised they did not matchup better vs UCF for as experienced as FAU D is and some of the things they were able to do last year (91% of tackles returned this year), UCF really had their way with them. That surprised me.

Unfortunately there hasn't been much to like about MTSU either. Games vs Vandy, Georgia and UTMartin sandwiched in between...we haven't seen alot of positives out of MTSU. Their D was good last year, not as much this year, hard to judge playing vs SEC teams and maybe they didn't have their full engagement for UTMartin week 2. Both starting safeties missed the Georgia game, Moffatt hasn't played all year (both practiced this week, unsure of status). RB Thomas has been out since the opener and I only saw an early week report that he hadn't done much in practice this week.

The more I think about it the more it feels like an iffy game for MTSU. This could appear like a "get healthy" game for FAU's O. Or Stockstill could have a big game and Blue Raiders win. I don't know. It is a really huge game to kickoff CUSA play for teams that both have realistic goals of winning the league. Neither has played their best ball yet. Who is more likely to do so?
 
Nice to have a little backing for Tulane tonight. Thanks @JROCK1966 . Fundamentals don't seem to point to it. I think this is kind of a fork-in-the-road game for Tulane. As I said before, they do play well as home dogs. Memphis O is just scary to bet against. Maybe Memphis D gives Wave a chance tonight.
 
I see that big drop. Still like Nevada quite a bit. Pack has found a good running game and can obviously pass it as well. johnnyonthespot pointed to some possible wind concerns in Co Springs tomorrow, but if need be Nevada can move it on the ground pretty well.
 
Gonna see if I can get a head start tonight with Tulane....lotto tix posted below!

#1: 2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:

parlay4week5.jpg

#2: 3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs:

parlay3week5.jpg

:moneyeyes:
 
rambler882 said:
Do we know if martinez is starting for corn?
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Yes he is.

HOW THE HUSKERS LIGHT UP THE SCOREBOARD
1. A week of normalcy. Adrian Martinez is practicing. Everybody knows he’ll start. The playbook is wide open. Nebraska hasn’t had that certainty in its offensive huddle in practice since the lead-up to the Colorado game. It can make a difference.
https://journalstar.com/sports/husk...cle_17b7517b-5677-5b1d-b5c8-7898fb825277.html
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Continuity helps: Martinez had a full week of practice, which Frost said will be a big benefit to the freshman.
“He’s got more of the (No. 1-team) reps this week and the lion’s share of the reps all week, so I think he’ll be more prepared going into the game,” Frost said. “Continuity there definitely helps, particularly when you’ve got young guys that haven’t played much there. They need those reps and those looks at what they’re going to see.”
https://journalstar.com/sports/husk...cle_bc3c3b80-35fe-51e9-8f55-65030ae5e2d4.html
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ProV1Colt said:
S--k
Tulane tonight and the Over ?
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I won't have the over. Tulane is going to be tough, but I am going to give it a shot ATS. Will need Memphis D from South Alabama game to show up but they will be trying to improve upon that performance. Will have to trust that their D just isn't quite as good as games 1-3 indicated and see if Tulane can get some big plays out of Banks.
 
East Carolina outplayed USF in just about every category last week except for the scoreboard. Really glad to see ECU playing competitive again. This result does make me think more to USF nearly losing to Illinois as anything else however and really pisses me off that GT lost to them.

I have bet Old Dominion every week this year and own an over season win ticket, so I have lost a bunch on them and will more than likely lose that win total too barring some miracle gelling out of this team. After the Charlotte loss I figured it was just time to move on and forget about that team. Then they put up a 4TD+ spread vs VT and I knew how much hype that game got in the offseason so I went back one more time. Had they lost I wouldn't even be thinking about playing them here, but they showed last week that they have the potential they played with vs VT. 9 times out of 10 VT wins that game, maybe more, but just the type of receivers they have, the RBs they have the OL, that O always had a chance to be great in 2018, they just lacked the QB to do it. Assuming Wiliams will be watching the rest of the season while LaRussa plays we'll just have to see what he can do. He was the backup in the VT game but has prior starting experience so it's not like some unknown guy came off the bench and did that. Where he got the ability to make those throws I'm not quite sure, but if he can distribute the ball, ODU has plenty of skill around him.

I would never expect their D to hold up vs a team like VT, but vs a still improving team like ECU, they should have similar talent to matchup.

It is just such a weird game to think about because of the mental state and potential let-down off the VT win. I can only hope it charges their batteries and makes them realize that there is alot left to play for in this season.

ECU being expected to win is a rare sight and by a TD vs the talent ODU has? Man that is so tempting. I need this win to give false hope on the RSW so I may not ML and just play ATS, if they lose close atleast I can get something out of them.

ODU has 22 seniors and came into 2018 with 18 returning starters. LaRussa is Jr. The starting 5 OL have 104 career starts among them (3 Sr, 1 Jr, 1 Soph). WRs Duhart, Harper, Fulgham are all Jr and Sr, RB Cox is Sr. 5 of the top 6 DL are Sr. Best player on their defense LB Oshane Ximnes (CUSA sack leader) is Sr. 3 of 5 DBs are Sr.

I just have to hope that veteran nature and leadership of this team has what it takes. Throw in that ECU is the closest FBS program to ODU, so proximity makes this game important as well and could help their focus. This is a winnable game (so was Liberty, FIU and Charlotte), so it isn't like they are playing FAU, North Texas or one of the tougher league teams this week. Wonder what this line would've been week 1? While ECU is clearly playing better, ODU is the same team. Have to think the value lays with ODU here.
 
I feel like in a way I'm giving up on my Ball State team (have over 4 wins) as this was definitely a win I had penciled, but also figured they could split IU and WKU. Losing to IU and getting overpowered there is one thing, but losing to a WKU team was ultra disappointing.

It is hard to not be impressed with Kent State this year. They played good enough for 3+ qrts to win at Illinois. So it's Illinois no big deal. It is a big deal just because Kent State has not had a pulse in football in years. They used to, occasionally play so-so D, but the O was nonexistent. Until this year. Enter Sean Lewis a Dino Babers disciple and Woody Barrett who was once at Auburn. Lewis recruited Barrett while at Syracuse. It has breathed new life and competitiveness into the Flashes. The O is like you can imagine, fast and wide open. Despite playing 3 P5 schools (ILL, PSU, OleMiss), Kent is averaging over 100 yards more this season already than the 2017 team did (394 vs 275). And they are averaging 10ppg more than 2017 even though they've played 3 P5s + an FCS.

Final scores show Kent State getting blown out 38-17 at Ole Miss, 63-10 at Penn State and losing 31-24 at Illinois. However, if you look inside the numbers Kent was tied 7-7 at halftime with OleMiss, outgaining the Rebels by 50 yards in the 1st H and Flashes only trailed 21-17 in the 3rd qrt. Kent only trailed PSU 21-7 HT. Vs Illinois Kent actually led 17-3 HT and were trailing 31-24 when they threw an INT in the EZ.

I feel like vs a team their own size this Kent team is on the verge of an FBS win. Some positive stories on them, they faced a 6 hour travel delay on the way to Oxford last Friday here is how they used it:

While waiting patiently for their new plane, the Flashes passed time in some memorable ways according to Lewis.

“Having a film session in a hangar in between two Learjets is a memory that those kids will never forget,” Lewis said. “We enjoyed some pizza, we had a film session, we relaxed. We played some road travel games ... little things where you grow together and come together as a family. When you’re sitting six hours in a hangar together, you’re going to learn some things about one another.”
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“We are better as a family because of that experience,” Lewis said. “For us going through our first season together, the time we spent together is invaluable. I wouldn’t have changed a thing, as crazy as it sounds. I’m glad that it happened.”

QUICK-HITTERS: Officials were reportedly considering calling the game during the second lightning delay when Lewis stormed out of the KSU locker room and made it clearly known that he wanted to continue playing. ... The Flashes suffered no significant injuries at Ole Miss. Star senior linebacker Jim Jones returned after missing a game due to a knee injury and made seven tackles. He went down with an ankle issue during the game, but Lewis said Jones is fine. Standout junior punter Derek Adams missed his fourth straight game due to a hip issue, and remains day-to-day.
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“The numbers say one thing, but when you turn on the tape and you grade our kids, our guys played well,” Lewis said. ”(Junior safety) Jamal Parker was all over the place. He got one pick, had his hands on another, and he led our team in tackles (12) so he’s showing up in the run fit as well. There are no moral victories, but it gives us confidence going into next week knowing that we can line up and go toe-to-toe with anyone.”
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That is what I see too. I see a team that is totally transformed from their former self and is competing better than the final scores of games are showing vs more talented teams.

It's not all roses for Kent:

Barrett has been sacked 17x! He has just a 4-4 ratio and misses some reads. And as I've written about before, Ball State does have some competent players on their D.

Kent has gone for 4th down 10x and converted 7 and they can go for it an unexpected times and field positions, so it is risky that so far hasn't bit them too much.

Ball State can be a dangerous offensive team...but for whatever reason they are not playing to the potential their offense has. If Ball State continue to underachieve and Kent State continues to play the way they have been, Flashes get this.
 
Interesting mr s--k. Being a dog lover, I'm taking good look at both. Had both Ball and ECU dotted on my worksheet, but that was SOP and SU win.
Let's hit it.:cheers3:
 
s--k said:
I feel like in a way I'm giving up on my Ball State team (have over 4 wins) as this was definitely a win I had penciled, but also figured they could split IU and WKU. Losing to IU and getting overpowered there is one thing, but losing to a WKU team was ultra disappointing.

It is hard to not be impressed with Kent State this year. They played good enough for 3+ qrts to win at Illinois. So it's Illinois no big deal. It is a big deal just because Kent State has not had a pulse in football in years. They used to, occasionally play so-so D, but the O was nonexistent. Until this year. Enter Sean Lewis a Dino Babers disciple and Woody Barrett who was once at Auburn. Lewis recruited Barrett while at Syracuse. It has breathed new life and competitiveness into the Flashes. The O is like you can imagine, fast and wide open. Despite playing 3 P5 schools (ILL, PSU, OleMiss), Kent is averaging over 100 yards more this season already than the 2017 team did (394 vs 275). And they are averaging 10ppg more than 2017 even though they've played 3 P5s + an FCS.

Final scores show Kent State getting blown out 38-17 at Ole Miss, 63-10 at Penn State and losing 31-24 at Illinois. However, if you look inside the numbers Kent was tied 7-7 at halftime with OleMiss, outgaining the Rebels by 50 yards in the 1st H and Flashes only trailed 21-17 in the 3rd qrt. Kent only trailed PSU 21-7 HT. Vs Illinois Kent actually led 17-3 HT and were trailing 31-24 when they threw an INT in the EZ.

I feel like vs a team their own size this Kent team is on the verge of an FBS win. Some positive stories on them, they faced a 6 hour travel delay on the way to Oxford last Friday here is how they used it:







That is what I see too. I see a team that is totally transformed from their former self and is competing better than the final scores of games are showing vs more talented teams.

It's not all roses for Kent:

Barrett has been sacked 17x! He has just a 4-4 ratio and misses some reads. And as I've written about before, Ball State does have some competent players on their D.

Kent has gone for 4th down 10x and converted 7 and they can go for it an unexpected times and field positions, so it is risky that so far hasn't bit them too much.

Ball State can be a dangerous offensive team...but for whatever reason they are not playing to the potential their offense has. If Ball State continue to underachieve and Kent State continues to play the way they have been, Flashes get this.
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On the Flashes with you!

:cheers3:
 
I mean Illini were missing a ton of players when they beat Kent. They dominated them in the second half.
 
Close games for Army are the rule vs teams of similar speed, size and talent:

Since 2016 Army has faced Buffalo twice and 3 MAC overall schools total going 2-1 with an average margin of just 1.6ppg. Vs the AAC Army is 3-1 with the average margin of just 3ppg. This year's game at Duke skews the ACC ppg, but Army is 2-2 vs ACC with avg margin 10ppg (was 6.6 coming into this year). They've had some big wins vs the bottom of CUSA, but if we throw out Rice and UTEP blowout wins, Army and look at their 3 games with North Texas, Army is 2-1 with the avg ppg being 9 (Army lost by 17 one year). VS MWC Army had a big loss vs AF, a big win vs AF and a 7 pt win vs San Diego St and just beat Hawaii this year by 7, 3-1 vs MWC.

That makes the +7.5 appealing here as Army has only lost by more than a TD 5x the last 2+ years and two of those losses came to Ohio St and Notre Dame. Only lost by 7 or more pts to what I would call teams their own size 3x the last 2+ years (NT, AF and Duke). Losing by more than one score is the exception for Army.

Buffalo has the advantage of playing Army for the 3rd straight year and that gives them some familiarity with the option. North Texas faced Army for 3 straight years as well and I would call North Texas and Buffalo similar in terms of talent and type of athletes. NT upset them the first year, but the next two games were a 7 pt Army win and then a 3 pt NT win. Point being even in the second and third time facing Army in the same year or playing them the following year didn't mean they fared significantly better vs them.

Army was supposed to take a step back this year off their 10 win 2017 season. And we saw what that looked like week 1 vs Duke as Army broke in a new QB for the first time in 3 years. A big win vs Liberty, a win vs Hawaii and a competitive loss vs Oklahoma tells us that Army has settled into their personnel and once again will be a tough out for anyone as usual.

Buffalo is a really good team. Except for maybe special teams, Buffalo has some outstanding mid-major talent in select spots. They beat Rutgers badly, which so did Kansas, so take that for what you will. VS the two decent teams they played they beat Eastern Michigan 35-28 and Temple 36-29...close games. Army is on par with EM and Temple and Buffalo didn't show significantly better than those two so why should we expect something different here?

Last year Army was -15 at home vs Buffalo and Army won 21-17. Now Buffalo is -7.5 for a 22.5 pt swing, but Army has proved they aren't significantly worse. Buffalo's team is largely the same as well, but they have matured and are playing with more confidence and knowledge of their schemes. It still appears to me that the price on Buffalo has been inflated, how do you justify a 22 pt line move? The only reason I can think of is the line last year was flat wrong and 15 was way too high. I agree. That and there has been a major adjustment to Buffalo's PR, but there can't have been any negative revision to Army's could there? What has Army done this year to make anybody think that they won't compete here? The Duke game week 1? OK. But then how does one square that with the Oklahoma game?

I think the price on Buffalo is high vs this oppenent and Army's history in close competitive games vs teams like this makes me think Army has what it takes to hang and the upset certainly would not surprise anyone I wouldn't think.
 
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Few things quick things on Nevada

This game is really big for both teams. AF is off to another rough start, 1-2 off of last year's disappointing season. Not sure anyone is calling it a must win, but there will be a sense of urgency for AF to get a win here with Navy next week. Nevada has lost 8 straight road games. In year two of Norvell they come in here with some confidence. They led big vs Oregon St and except for a few special teams plays vs Toledo played pretty good. They are executing their O at a high level the last 2 weeks and this being the conference opener it adds importance to ending the road losing streak which the players have talked about. Big game for both.

Last year AF was -7 at Nevada and won on a time expiring FG. This line is much lower reflecting the improvement in Nevada and a presumed continuing decline in AF.

Historically this is a close series. Last year AF 45-42 and then they didn't play for a few years...2014 AF 45-38 OT, 2013 Nev 45-42.

Special teams could hold a key...Nevada had 2 punts blk'd last week and allowed a KO ret TD. AF blk'd a punt vs FAU.

Nevada played their first 3 games without Sr C Krepsz (23 career starts), he returned last week and goes again this week.

Air Force may be on their back-up K, rumor is the #1 K has broken fibula. Back-up was 1-of-2 last week and AF passed on what would've been a 33yarder when they trailed by 10 in the 4th last week.

The last 2 QBs to play AF were named their conference's POW afterwards (Utah St's Love 26-38-356-2-0, FAU Robison 33-40-471-3-0). Last week vs Toledo Gangi was 29-50-320-1-1. AF has been solid vs the run, but at the expense of allowing teams to carve them up through the air.

Nevada is thought of as an Air-Raid team, but the last 2 weeks they have avg'd over 200 rushing ypg (262y 7.5 vs Tol and 156y 5.2 vs Ore St). Fr RB Toa Taua has 251 of those (170 vs Tol). If AF chooses to focus on the run D again, Nevada will shred them. If AF over compensates towards defending the pass, Nevada will run on them.

Nevada O has 35 explosive plays of 20+ yards, ranking second in the MWC. AF has just 7 such plays. The option can sometimes lull an opponent to sleep and leave themselves exposed to a big pass play, but AF has only connected one of those on 12% off their pass attempts (5-of-42) this year, 2017 they were doing so at 17.5% rate (25-of-143). Nevada has allowed 19 20+y pass plays so will have to see if AF can hit any.

Really this game feels like it could go either way. I get the feeling that Nevada is trending upward and AF is not. I think both teams will be really up for this game and would prefer a little better odds for taking Nevada on the road here. Ultimately I think Nevada is the better team which has been reflected in market moving the line from 7/7.5 to current 3.5.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I mean Illini were missing a ton of players when they beat Kent. They dominated them in the second half.
Click to expand...

I think Illinois was missing 3 starters.

It was also game 1 for a new staff with a new QB and drastically different offensive system vs a coach in year 3 with the Big Ten recruited players vs a perennial MAC doormat. Kent State looked like the better team for most of the game. I don't believe the 3 missing ILL players would've made a dramatic difference in the game.
 
LockthisMonster said:
Rutgers?lol
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LOL is right.

My ugly dog upset today would be UConn, but I can't...I just can't...

I am really temped to make a run with Pitt, but man it's tough. I just love being on big upsets so can't be afraid to take some swings to get a hit. Talked myself out of the Tulane ML in trying to justify playing it. Can't justify playing Pitt either...
 
s--k said:
I think Illinois was missing 3 starters.

It was also game 1 for a new staff with a new QB and drastically different offensive system vs a coach in year 3 with the Big Ten recruited players vs a perennial MAC doormat. Kent State looked like the better team for most of the game. I don't believe the 3 missing ILL players would've made a dramatic difference in the game.
Click to expand...

Three fifths of the starting defensive backfield, a starting defensive tackle, their best tight end, a top-five wide receiver, top-five offensive lineman, etc weren't playing. If that's not dramatic I don't know what is. The team didn't show up in the first half, but still made the cover pretty interesting by scoring at will in the second half.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Three fifths of the starting defensive backfield, a starting defensive tackle, their best tight end, a top-five wide receiver, top-five offensive lineman, etc weren't playing. If that's not dramatic I don't know what is. The team didn't show up in the first half, but still made the cover pretty interesting by scoring at will in the second half.
Click to expand...

Whatever dude, I know you will spend all day arguing about a game 4 weeks ago that doesn't matter. Your information is different than mine, that DT was not a projected starter and neither was that WR. ILL had plenty of WR talent to on the field in that game. Highly doubt that TE makes a difference.
 
Probably pretty deflating on top of everything else to have like your whole team not playing in the opener and pretty hard to prepare. Not to mention why Illinois' defense was getting shredded. Idk why you're telling me i'm going to argue about this all day when you are arguing with me lol. Whatever go Tree.
 
I agree Josh Jackson sucks, back up with little experience, I will give him respect for going 9-18 in panic situations against odu. Dukes d is stout. I wouldn't want my first start there is all I guess
 
I haven't put all these in yet, but it will be like this:

Army 50 to win 117
Kent St 50 to win 116
Pitt 10 to win 38
Nebraska 100 to win 135
Nevada 50 to win 74
Northwestern 10 to win 51
LaTech 50 to win 111
Ole Miss 50 to win 146
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I agree Josh Jackson sucks, back up with little experience, I will give him respect for going 9-18 in panic situations against odu. Dukes d is stout. I wouldn't want my first start there is all I guess
Click to expand...


Willis played 16 games in ths big 12 and threw 400+ passes. Not really concerned about that.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Lawrence out may not return I'm luvin' where I'm at with my Cuse wagers!!

Kudos to you Army backers they are looking great!

:watchingsports:
Click to expand...


YES! Loving my Cuse ML bet right now. Wish I hadn't been scared to pull the trigger on Army! I missed the +9 and didn't take the +7.5, Respected Buffalo a bit too much. Let's keep it rollin! :cheers3:
 
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