Week 5 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Really good stuff last week. Lets get it started right again...


New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thu 10/5 303 New England Patriots -5 -110 -235 o55½ -110
8:25PM 304 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 -110 +195 u55½ -110

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
Sun 10/8 451 Los Angeles Chargers +165 o44½ -110
1:00PM 452 New York Giants -190 u44½ -110

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun 10/8 453 Buffalo Bills +135 o38½ -110
1:00PM 454 Cincinnati Bengals -155 u38½ -110

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Sun 10/8 455 New York Jets +108 o39 -110
1:00PM 456 Cleveland Browns -128 u39 -110

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun 10/8 457 Jacksonville Jaguars +335 o44 -110
1:00PM 458 Pittsburgh Steelers -420 u44 -110

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Sun 10/8 459 Tennessee Titans
1:00PM 460 Miami Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts
Sun 10/8 461 San Francisco 49ers o44 -110
1:00PM 462 Indianapolis Colts u44 -110

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun 10/8 463 Arizona Cardinals +235 o45 -110
1:00PM 464 Philadelphia Eagles -275 u45 -110

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Sun 10/8 465 Carolina Panthers +130 o44 -110
1:00PM 466 Detroit Lions -150 u44 -110

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Sun 10/8 467 Seattle Seahawks +108 o47 -110
4:05PM 468 Los Angeles Rams -128 u47 -110

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Sun 10/8 471 Green Bay Packers +108 o52 -110
4:25PM 472 Dallas Cowboys -128 u52 -110
 
Well, looks like they are going to assign a bit more of a tariff on these opponent TT's against the Patriots. Still worth a look here but I was hoping that it would project to 23 or under...

Chargers and Giants sounds like an absolute 'heck no' to me right off the bat...

Buffalo TT might be a bit low and something to look at. Obviously this is a bit of a letdown spot so who knows...

I figured Jets and Browns would get flexed to Sunday night but I guess it will have to be the showcase 1pm game. I won't lie, situational capping.... BROWNS...hold ya nose and play it...

Jacksonville and Pitt really doesn't excite me in any way...

Tennessee is having problems on defense since halftime of the Seattle game. Miami is in the need of any kind of offense. Tough game here...

Niners and Colts has the obvious west to east 1pm angle...that is all I have here...just another awful matchup...

Cardinals and Iggles is interesting. I am sure Philly will be a popular teaser...

Lions back in the comfy confines for the Panthers off a huge win...should be a good game...I'll tune in for the second half...

Seahens and Rams. Seattle continues to get lined on reputation. The Rams are off a huge win on the road. This is a very tough situation for L.A. although they are easily the better team here...

Packers and Cowboys will obviously be the game of the day. That line is interesting and I really like Dallas here to be honest...at first glance...

Okay, what are you thinking this week?
 
Rammers over. The market hasn't caught on just yet. My guess is this hits 49 before kickoff.

And yes...Browns. Was sort of hoping against hope they would be a pk but -1.5 is still probably good.
 
Seeing 85% of early action on the Jets. I'm gonna wait out this line and see if I can get the Brownies at closer to pk.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, looks like they are going to assign a bit more of a tariff on these opponent TT's against the Patriots. Still worth a look here but I was hoping that it would project to 23 or under...

Chargers and Giants sounds like an absolute 'heck no' to me right off the bat...

Buffalo TT might be a bit low and something to look at. Obviously this is a bit of a letdown spot so who knows...

I figured Jets and Browns would get flexed to Sunday night but I guess it will have to be the showcase 1pm game. I won't lie, situational capping.... BROWNS...hold ya nose and play it...

Jacksonville and Pitt really doesn't excite me in any way...

Tennessee is having problems on defense since halftime of the Seattle game. Miami is in the need of any kind of offense. Tough game here...

Niners and Colts has the obvious west to east 1pm angle...that is all I have here...just another awful matchup...

Cardinals and Iggles is interesting. I am sure Philly will be a popular teaser...

Lions back in the comfy confines for the Panthers off a huge win...should be a good game...I'll tune in for the second half...

Seahens and Rams. Seattle continues to get lined on reputation. The Rams are off a huge win on the road. This is a very tough situation for L.A. although they are easily the better team here...

Packers and Cowboys will obviously be the game of the day. That line is interesting and I really like Dallas here to be honest...at first glance...

Okay, what are you thinking this week?
Click to expand...
Tampa Bays TT is 25.5 for Thursday night. Trying to decide to play it now or wait
 
Hulu said:
Rammers over. The market hasn't caught on just yet. My guess is this hits 49 before kickoff.

And yes...Browns. Was sort of hoping against hope they would be a pk but -1.5 is still probably good.
Click to expand...
The rams over is at 47. So U think it goes up to around 49. If so I may go ahead and pull the trigger on over 47
 
Yeah I just hit it at 47. I don't see how it doesn't go up. Just one man's opinion
 
Other random thoughts from a sleep-deprived gambler who hasn't capped anything seriously yet.

Value on the Billygoats at +3 but they are in a rather massive letdown spot here so proceed with caution. +3.5 might make this one bettable as this game screams 20-19 to me (but I feel like I say that about every Cincy game)

Value on Jax at +8.5 but third straight road game makes you think twice.

Indy -1.5. San Fran has played a few close games but make no mistake, they are crap. Line should be -3 IMO. Going to wait this out a bit.

Detroit -3. People think Cam and the Panthers have put it together after a win in NE? I don't buy it and this is a great letdown spot for them after the big road upset. If I can get a reasonably priced -2.5, I'll likely hit it.

Like Dallas but can't exactly explain why. Call it a gut play. Will be looking into this one very closely.
 
Not there yet.....but ALMOST to a NOT BEING "Forget what you saw last week" last week.....as evidenced by the convincing KC Chiefs win/cover....

I'll have more later
 
DLL-w_1V4AAteyT.jpg
 
Shame the offensive onslaught that is pats/bucs is being wasted on Thursday night. If this was being played Sunday they couldn't set this total high enough w these secondaries vs these offenses. Not sure I can play a over 56 in the Thursday night shitfest tho.
 
Give me the Texans as small home dogs for what will probably be last time we have that chance for years to come.
 
one thing with the Tampa TT is their kicker. he's close to useless...could come into play
 
Hulu said:
Rammers over. The market hasn't caught on just yet. My guess is this hits 49 before kickoff.
Click to expand...

47 a pretty significant jump from where these rams/sea games used to be. Think both last year were less than 40. Only 2-3 points lower than sea/gb week 1 opened I believe.

Thinking if I like over it gonna mean I like rams cause I don't trust seahags offense to carry a total that high. I got some things to look at here, mostly rams front vs sea oline.
 
Yeah true...some of their offense has been priced into the market at this number. I just think there's more to go yet before the market has truly caught up. And I think Seattle can get theirs against the Rams defense.
 
I dont play fantasy or know how it works, but Butker was a WINNER at GT. Big time, special kid. Much more bullish on Chiefs just because it helps ST and shows me again they know whats up. Their old kicker aint coming back
 
They already waived Santos... Butker is legit. Panthers tried to stash him but couldnt protect him on Pracitice Squad.

Bad spot for KC Sunday night... As much as I said, "this is a game they always win" about last night, this is the one that could cause concern.

All over the Bengals. I'll take my chances. Got them at 3.

I do like the Giants but missed 3.

Early lean to the Panthers. And I do not like the Panthers. I do not want to like the Panthers.

Cowboys need this game severely

Might be worth the travel angle again for the Miami. And the suck angle. Tennessee is just too inconsistent.
 
Thought Santos was hurt, well good for Butker...and agree, terrible spot for KC, will be on HOU

Who had Rams lined at -1.5 in this one 4 weeks ago? SEA team total will likely be a play if I don't talk myself out of it
 
This should be the week KC goes down. Our OL is patchwork right now and last year HOU front 7 destroyed us and I expect the same Sunday night.
 
aplous said:
This should be the week KC goes down. Our OL is patchwork right now and last year HOU front 7 destroyed us and I expect the same Sunday night.
Click to expand...

Completely agree.. With that said, I thought Witzman, Fulton and Devey did a heck of a job in the 2nd half last night. Not going to be enough Sunday Im afriad.
 
Hulu said:
Yeah true...some of their offense has been priced into the market at this number. I just think there's more to go yet before the market has truly caught up. And I think Seattle can get theirs against the Rams defense.
Click to expand...

My concern about Seattle putting up points is I think it been pretty obvious the way to attack phillips 3-4 is to run the football. Hags run game was finally starting to gain some traction w Carson and now he out for the season. Lacy looked pretty good after Carson went down but that was against colts in a game they had long since given up. If Seattle goes back to struggling to run the ball wilson will be running for his life as I don't think the oline can hold up against a rams pass rush 4th in league in sack percentage.

On other hand Seattle d is also struggling stopping the run allowing 5ypc! Gurley starting to resemble the stud he was at uga and his 1st season in the league. I can really envision a game rams get a early lead and hammer hawks into submission w gurley and the defense pinning their ears back and making life miserable on Wilson.
 
Any truth to this?.?.? Somebody sent me an article about it.....
__________________________________________________________________________

The New Orleans Saints made the mistake of once again disrespecting our veterans, our country and our flag. After an embarrassing opening to a game with the worst ratings in Saints’ history, the players and coaches learned that their actions have consequences.

Both the pilot and co-pilot of the Boeing 737 the Saints use to travel are combat-hardened American heroes. They flew sorties over Baghdad with Saddam’s best weapons firing back. They fought with their lives for your freedom and watched many of their friends die. Today they took a stand for those brave souls:“We couldn’t be a party to the disrespect. We waited until we were cleared and last off the runway for the night , walked out of the cockpit, took a knee and deplaned. They’re not going anywhere until tomorrow.”Looks like the group of thugs should have just considered themselves lucky they’re allowed to make millions for playing a game and stood with respect like they’re told to do in the league rulebook.
 
A fraud as a player? Um nope, take him on my team any day

Or are you trying to take this in a different direction?
 
I think Michael Bennett is a fraud as a human being. He is a cancer to his team and they are imploding. I would want nothing to do with him on my roster.

BTW,

I see Sportsinsights was just sold to some enterprise bullshit.
 
They were losing at half, at home to shitty Colts. I watched game I saw how they scored, saw their injuries. I dont buy they are fixed. They are a fade and MB is a distraction to team. His narcassism sways the pillars that support the team and will ultimately pull it over.

Pete Carroll and Russell have no control.
 
Don't get me wrong, I want them to suck. They won't by the end of the season. And it sure isn't the defense, you just don't like him obviously and for obvious reasons. Don't let that cost you.
 
Don't know bout any of that stuff but think it pretty clear rams now the class of the west. Like rams quite a bit laying less than a fg.
 
Its not personal with me, I don't have favorite professional teams. I played team sports growing up. This is about gambling. I don't like their chemistry, so I don't trust them. He is not mature and his number one goal does not appear to be winning games. PC is cool but a flake and Russell is a complicated fella that finds weird situations that alienate him.

The Rams game will be interesting for sure.
 
The Raiders are in same boat. Yeah Marshawn is cool and all and Jack Del Rio is a mans man, but when you let less than mature people control your team culture, you are going down
 
I never bought steelers as legit contenders this year. Agree tomlin terrible when it comes to game planning and adjustments. Unfathomable to me how they sat back in zone last year and let Brady and co pick them apart just settling in the soft spots of the zone, and they just continued to play it never switching to man!!

They been a terrible road team which big red flag, Big Ben seems kinda disinterested at this point, bell could get suspended any time league gives him piss test!
 
Ryan Clark was speaking out about AB ego but how it zero influence on team and Ben is frustrated with AB. That offense is very impressive.
 
brewers888 said:
Nah EJ Manuel is going to save the day.
Click to expand...

Assuming that sarcasm? Lol

I mean If they were playing well he could probably keep them afloat but whole team playing poorly I seriously doubt he gonna come in and elevate whole team. Other than chargers next week they not easy games coming up plus their December schedule incredibly tough so if they 3-5 or whatever when Carr comes back they won't have much margin for error.
 
Thoughts on a couple games

Jets have been fortunate to face off vs teams in bad situations (Miami off the road win, Jax of london blowout win) the opposite can be said for the Browns so I would give the situational edge to the Browns. McCown is due for an implosion but the Jets are running the ball well. I feel like this is the winnable game for the Browns who will be getting players Collins back on defense along with Myles first game. Have to think they load up vs the run to make McCown beat them. Leaning under could be a shitshow
 
Same thoughts on the Browns this week Lex and I just got a unit down on them at pk. This might be one of, if not the only spot to back them this season.
 
I'm starting to really like Indy this week as a short home fav.

Brissett has looked better than expected and considering what he has to work with, that is saying something. They lost badly to Seattle last week but that was almost inevitable in that situation and they were playing well and leading at the half. Once bedtime rolled around and the 12th man got going, things just steamrolled on them. I'm not saying they're a good team but that loss was not as bad as it looked. Back home in the oil can, the crowd noise will favor them in a big way.

SF has played 3 close games that, to me, make them look better than they are. Lost by 3 @ Seattle and the hags were and are a question mark with a terrible OL. Then they lost by 2 in that crazy nonsense game against the Rams and then lost by 3 at ARZ, which is not a good team by any stretch. And now they have to play their second consecutive road game in a 10am pacific start.

Only thing that has me flummoxed is the initial line move from 2.5 to 1.5. I thought 2.5-3 was about right.

What am I missing here? Someone try to talk me off this play.
 
Hulu, i lean the Colts too, but haven't looked too closely at it yet. Don't let the line throw you. I like where they set the line and it will stay around the -1.5 mark i think. Imo.


Loving the Eagles, started looking at the game this morning. Zona is bad. And they have now suffered some injuries to an already piss poor o-line. Whoever is Palmers back up better take extra reps this week. I hate having to back Philly, but so far my fav play. Hoping it will dip below 6, but i don't think it will matter anyway.
 
The parity is getting crazy.... taking a market type look at games this week and just on a buy low sell high angle what do you guys see?

Patriots under 55- Both teams off pretty bad defensive games, obviously Patriots looked the worst to date. I can't believe I'm saying could be a potential wager but you have to think they deploy a gameplan to keep the defense off the field. Gillislee along with short dink and dunk with game management might be hoodie's best bet. Hightower only played 59% of snaps lw which will increase. D as a whole will prob have a chip on their shoulders but idk if it's enough for me to play. Could be a closely played low scoring game where everyone loves the over. Could just as easily be a game where they total 60+ but a lot has to go right for 55 to hit.

Bengals- Trying to get their first home win and it's a nice short fg line. Bills in a rough spot but to their credit have outperformed in situations they normally wouldn't have this season to date (albeit with a ton of luck). Cincy is getting healthier and the Bills got the injury bug losing Matthews on an already thin wr core. Defensively the leading tackler lb Humber underwent hand surgery, Milano will likely get a jump in playing time, he looked lost on a couple plays vs ATL. EJ Gaines left with a groin injury and that is a huge one to watch...Could see AJ going off. Offensively the Bills haven't turned the ball over since the first drive of the season, how long is that going to last? I do think the Bills have an edge in the run game...this is the best rushing attack Cincy will have faced to date

Cards+6.5- Needed ot to win at home and the Eagles are looking great. Don't know if I even like this one but line looks like they want Philly action, jmo.
 
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