Week 5 Discussion Thread

Lexington 125 said:
Thoughts on a couple games

Jets have been fortunate to face off vs teams in bad situations (Miami off the road win, Jax of london blowout win) the opposite can be said for the Browns so I would give the situational edge to the Browns. McCown is due for an implosion but the Jets are running the ball well. I feel like this is the winnable game for the Browns who will be getting players Collins back on defense along with Myles first game. Have to think they load up vs the run to make McCown beat them. Leaning under could be a shitshow
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Yup, Browns.

Shoot me now.
 
Hulu said:
I'm starting to really like Indy this week as a short home fav.

Brissett has looked better than expected and considering what he has to work with, that is saying something. They lost badly to Seattle last week but that was almost inevitable in that situation and they were playing well and leading at the half. Once bedtime rolled around and the 12th man got going, things just steamrolled on them. I'm not saying they're a good team but that loss was not as bad as it looked. Back home in the oil can, the crowd noise will favor them in a big way.

SF has played 3 close games that, to me, make them look better than they are. Lost by 3 @ Seattle and the hags were and are a question mark with a terrible OL. Then they lost by 2 in that crazy nonsense game against the Rams and then lost by 3 at ARZ, which is not a good team by any stretch. And now they have to play their second consecutive road game in a 10am pacific start.

Only thing that has me flummoxed is the initial line move from 2.5 to 1.5. I thought 2.5-3 was about right.

What am I missing here? Someone try to talk me off this play.
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I cannot talk you off.

And it hurts.

The new reality of NFL is that you have to cap absolute shitshows of games. That is how bad the play in the league is right now.
 
Dogs 36-26-1 ATS (58.1%) vs the closing line so far this season.

Spread coming into play a lot more than seasons past as well.
 
B.A.R. said:
I cannot talk you off.

And it hurts.

The new reality of NFL is that you have to cap absolute shitshows of games. That is how bad the play in the league is right now.
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I've said for a few years that if you want to win over the long haul, you have to learn to bet bad teams. The public love the good ones and the books know it and shade the line that way. Bad teams usually have value. Not betting them blindly of course, but that's where I tend to start my capping.
 
This week will test my theory well because its looking like Cleveland and Indy might be my only two side bets.

Think I might just save the .60 electricity and keep the tv off.
 
So weird, Terrell Pryor had a racist experience, i very much like Jay Gruden but this pick up was very dumb, distractions from non performers is par for most courses.
 
Tito said:
Hulu, i lean the Colts too, but haven't looked too closely at it yet. Don't let the line throw you. I like where they set the line and it will stay around the -1.5 mark i think. Imo.


Loving the Eagles, started looking at the game this morning. Zona is bad. And they have now suffered some injuries to an already piss poor o-line. Whoever is Palmers back up better take extra reps this week. I hate having to back Philly, but so far my fav play. Hoping it will dip below 6, but i don't think it will matter anyway.
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Cards historically terrible in the east coast early time slot, when they beat Indy it was their 1st win in last 9 or so tries! And let's be real beating colts in ot in a game Indy basically gave away is far from impressive. My only concern is arians will test the philly secondary which can be had, that said if cox plays I think palmer be under too much fire for them to push ball down field much.. looks like a game philly should absolutely dominate both sides at the LOS.
 
The Bengals figuring some stuff out. Easy team to hate. Bills D is tuff. Lean bengals. Can chiefs d stop watson? Oretty sure they can stop andy reid being cute
 
2 stats about the pats that stuck out to me...

Their defense is surrendering 7.2 ypp. The worst defense to win a superbowl was the 2011 Giants at 5.6ypp.

Through 4 games, Brady's passer rating is 116. Their opponents is also 116. Its like Brady vs Brady.
 
I think they were going to get action on the Patriots even if the line never went under 5. Yes Brady may go off but he's due to play a clunker and tell me how the defense magically gets better. I leaned under but I can't play it. If Gilmore that secondary could be laughable
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
So weird, Terrell Pryor had a racist experience, i very much like Jay Gruden but this pick up was very dumb, distractions from non performers is par for most courses.
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Did I hear that the video captured showed that there wasn't any racial epithet thrown at him? Not that it didn't happen at some point, but that the video showed someone just kinda cursed him out....
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
The Bengals figuring some stuff out. Easy team to hate. Bills D is tuff. Lean bengals. Can chiefs d stop watson? Oretty sure they can stop andy reid being cute
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They did a good job vs chiefs last year in a 19-12 win and that was with oswieler garbage ass playing qb, surely Watson makes the offense much better even on a bad day.,think it comes down to Texans dline vs a banged up chiefs o-line. 1st bet I made this week was Houston +1.5 even. I think this be last time in a long time we will have opportunity to bet Houston as home dogs!
 
Lexington 125 said:
I think they were going to get action on the Patriots even if the line never went under 5. Yes Brady may go off but he's due to play a clunker and tell me how the defense magically gets better. I leaned under but I can't play it. If Gilmore that secondary could be laughable
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Turns out all they had to do was double Evans and play a soft zone to let shamis beat himself, incredibly disappointing effort by him.
 
NYG could easily have two wins. I think they take care of the chuggars at home and I may even play them in survivor.(gulp) This is a bad week for survivor, there are a lot of coin flip games.
 
Two Utes said:
NYG could easily have two wins. I think they take care of the chuggars at home and I may even play them in survivor.(gulp) This is a bad week for survivor, there are a lot of coin flip games.
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Luckily I bounced myself in the 1st week so no worries for me, pretty embarrassing having everyone I know bring it up all the time. I'm supposed to be the go to guy in my circle of friends to ask advice and shit, lol.,
 
Week 5 NFL betting nuggets to know
Oct 6, 2017

Here is a look at some things to know as you bet the Week 5 NFL games.

All lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and all games are on Sunday unless otherwise specified.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39.5) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The Bills are one of two teams to start 4-0 ATS this season (the other is the Kansas City Chiefs), having won outright in two of their three games as an underdog.

  • The Bills are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games against the Bengals.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • In their seven games starting at 1 p.m. ET over the past two seasons, the Cardinals are 0-7 ATS.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (PK, 39.5) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The total has gone under in seven straight and 11 of the Browns' past 13 home games.

  • The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games, including an 0-2 record this season.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5, 45) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The Chargers are 0-8-1 ATS during their current nine-game losing streak.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 42.5) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS with three outright wins as an underdog since Doug Marrone took over as head coach in Week 16 of last season.
Tennessee Titans (-3, 43.5) at Miami Dolphins -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS with four outright wins in their past five games as a home underdog.

  • The Titans are 6-23 ATS and 8-21 SU in their past 29 games against teams with a losing record
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 44.5) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The Colts are 25-12 ATS against teams with a losing record under Chuck Pagano.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions(-2.5, 43) -- 1 p.m. ET

  • The Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 regular-season games following a straight up win.

  • The under is 11-4 in the Lions' past 15 games.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams(PK, 46) -- 4:05 p.m. ET

  • The under is 11-3 in the 14 games between these two teams since Pete Carroll took over as the Seahawks' head coach.

  • The home team is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings between these teams. This includes a 5-0 ATS mark for the Rams at home during this span.
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders(-2.5, 39) -- 4:05 p.m. ET

  • The Raiders are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU in their past six games without Derek Carr.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys(-2, 53) -- 4:25 p.m. ET

  • The Packers have won outright in each of their past three games as an underdog against the Cowboys.

  • Teams that played on Thursday night are 6-0 ATS in their next game after the extra rest this season (The Packers played the Chicago Bears on Thursday night in Week 4).

  • The over is 14-3 in the Packers' past 17 games.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans(PK, 45.5) -- 8:30 p.m. ET

  • The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS and 8-0 SU in their past eight road games.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40.5) at Chicago Bears -- Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET

  • The Bears are 12-4 ATS and 14-2 SU in their past 16 home games against the Vikings. This includes a 6-1 ATS mark with six outright wins in their seven games as a home underdog to Minnesota during that span.

  • Case Keenum is 1-7 ATS with six outright losses in eight career starts when his team is favored.
 
Bills team total is 18. They are getting over that number.

Offensively Tyrod has progressed in my eyes and nobody is really talking about it. No ints since the first drive of the season (which i think was on Clay). 20-26 vs Denver with 3 dropped passes. The wrs can't get separation yes & Matthews is out, but do they even need to throw much? I think the team has bought into the next man up mentality- Clay is the one getting all the targets anyway (and doing the most with them), but I think Holmes will be serviceable. Zay really needs to get the drops under control, crazy to think his M.O. was that he was sure handed. Likely to see 2 te sets with Oleary, and I expect a max effort in the run game. Go ahead and drop the safety in the box... Shady has not scored a td all season how long do you really think that lasts?

The thin secondary is a huge question mark with Hyde playing but banged up, no Gaines...scary when facing AJ but Dalton will get pressured. He will get his but is the run game for Cincy something to fear? I don't think so with that line. Milano should fill in ok for Humber, Bills d still seemingly underrated. Hopefully they can shorten the field for the offense.

Special teams wise this is the first time I've felt confident with our k in forever. Reallllly big factor these days in the NFL, especially when considering team totals
 
Lines are jumping all over the place this morning.... grabbed Packers+137 like 2 hours ago and now it's +113.
 
Now reading Glenn won't start but will be available. Enough to keep me off the Shady props but 75.5+125 is beatable, as is 110.5+135.
 
I am taking today off. Will watch Titans & then Dallas/GB.
If I were to bet today. Fins ML & GB ML.
 
Cards are average, i know, but win last week was huge, crossing country, bad spot, but I feel they come to play. Fltcher cox out, not sure
 
Since 2001 the Bears have gone 14-2 SU at home versus Minnesota, losing both games by a single field goal. That's the most that any home team in the NFL has dominated another team during that time besides Pack v Lions (15-1 SU) and Steelers v Browns (16-1 SU).
 
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